11-10-13

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Predators are 4-3 in their last seven road games.
-- Rangers won five of their last six games.
-- Blackhawks won five of their last six games.
-- Colorado won seven of its last eight games. Washington won four of its last five.
-- Anaheim won seven of its last eight games.

Cold teams
-- Islanders lost last three games, outscored 12-4. Montreal lost its last four, outscored 15-7.
-- Devils lost three of their last four games.
-- Florida lost its last eight games, five by one goal.
-- Edmonton lost seven of its last eight games.
-- Sharks lost last four games, two in SO, one in OT. Winnipeg lost seven of its last ten.
-- Vancouver lost three of its last five games.

Totals
-- Four of last five Islander road games went over the total. Under is 6-1-1 in Montreal's last eight games. Seven of last eight series games went over.
-- Four of last five Nashville games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Florida games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Edmonton road games.
-- Four of last five San Jose games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Colorado-Washington games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Anaheim games went over the total.

Series records
-- Islanders won six of their last nine games with Montreal.
-- Devils won three of last five games with Nashville.
-- Panthers lost four of last five games in Madison Square Garden.
-- Oilers won four of their last six games with Chicago.
-- Sharks won three of last four games with Winnipeg.
-- Avalanche won four of its last five games with Washington.
-- Ducks won five of their last seven games with Vancouver.

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Betting As A Business
NFL
Under 44 - Seattle / Atlanta 1:00 ET 1.25 Units
(Play ON UNDER)

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NCAAB

Sunday, November 10

UMass has four starters back from 21-12 team that went 9-7 in A-16 a year ago, but this is their first game; BC lost tough 82-78 OT game less than 48 hours ago at Providence- four Eagle starters played 36+ minutes in that game. UMass beat BC 82-46 in last meeting two years ago, after losing three previous series meetings. Bigger game for UMass?

NC-Wilmington was down 48-12 at half Friday, lost 82-39 at Iowa in an ugly season opener; Seahawks have four starters back from LY's 10-20 team- they were 2-23 from arc Friday, 29% inside it. This is the opener for Iowa State, which lost three starters from LY's 23-12 team, and is also without senior F Ejim, one of its two best players.

Eastern Kentucky-Youngstown are both playing third day in row; EKU runs lot of Princeton stuff, which is hard to prep for in less than a day. Colonels won first two games by 22-8 points, allowing 60.5 ppg. YSU also won its first two games, but needed OT to beat FIU Saturday, with three starters playing 38+ minutes and a fourth playing 35.

Elon pummeled a D-III team Friday, so this is its opener; they have all five starters back from 21-12 team that went 13-5 in league but wound up losing four of last six games overall. Elon is picked to win SoCon; if you're picked ahead of Davidson, you're not bad. Marist lost at Stony Brook Friday by 16, taking more 3's (6-27) than 2's (10-26).

Iowa is expected to be top 25 team despite losing Oglesby for 6 weeks; Hawkeyes were up 36 at half in opening win over UNCW. Omaha was down 13 at half in opener at Northern Illinois, rallied to win by hoop, as Omaha was 27-32 from foul line. Carter was only one of its guys to go more than 26:00 Friday, so talent will be more of issue than fatigue.

Jacksonville State lost opener Friday by 7 at Bradley; Gamecocks had three guys play 33+ minutes- they've got three starters back from LY, when they were 17-11, 8-8 in OVC. Illinois cruised in its opener by 16; 11 guys played double figures minutes, no one more than 26. Illinois beat Eastern Kentucky by 13 LY, last time they played an OVC team.

Tenn-Martin lost by 18 at Wyoming Friday, but tuened ball over only seven times; Skyhawks have four starters back from 9-21 team that was 5-11 in OVC- they're running into Colorado team here that lost 72-60 in Dallas to Baylor Friday, going 2-19 from the arc in game they never led. Three Buffaloes played 32+ minutes. One Martin kid played more than 27 minutes at Wyoming.

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NFL

Week 10

Jaguars (0-8) @ Titans (4-4)—First road game in four weeks for hideous Jags, who lost star WR Blackmon (drugs) for season, as their year from hell continues; Jax is 1-7 vs spread this year, with only cover as 27-point dogs in Denver- their road losses are by 10-28-14-16 points. 19-9 loss at Oakland in Week 2 is their only loss this year by less than 14 points, as they make run at being worst NFL team of all-time. Tennessee snapped 3-game skid last week in St Louis, running ball for 198 yards against host playing on short week with backup QB; Titans lost last two home games, after winning first two by 3-25 points- they’re 1-0-1 as home faves, but are -3 in turnovers in last four games, after being +9 in first four. Tennessee is 8-5 in last 13 series games, with three of last four decided by 6 or less points. Jags lost four of last five visits here, losing by 7-17-6-18 points. NFL-wide, home favorites are 17-9 vs spread in divisional games; double digit favorites are 8-10 vs spread this season. Three of last four Jax games, four of last five Titan games went over the total.

Eagles (4-5) @ Packers (5-3)—On one ill-fated play at end of its first drive Monday nite, Packers went from one of NFC’s favorites to an underdog to make playoffs; with Rodgers out at least three weeks (hairline fracture/clavicle), Pack has no decent backup (expected to sign Flynn Tuesday). One Vegas pundit said spread would drop 8 points with Rodgers out, one of biggest drops with any injury in NFL. Green Bay becomes a running team while Eagles are feast/famine offense; in their last five games, Philly scored 36-31-3-7-49 points, and they didn’t even try to score in 4th quarter at Oakland. Pack allowed 27+ points in all three of its losses; they’re 4-0 when allowing 20 or less points. Preparing a career backup to start and getting a new backup for him in place on short work week is tough duty. Eagle defense has played better of late; inflated numbers last week were partially because of big lead they had. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread, 2-6-1 at home; NFC East road underdogs are 4-4. Four of last five Packer games stayed under total; six of nine Eagle games went over.

Bills (3-6) @ Steelers (2-6)—Would expect stronger effort from Pitt after CBS’ Phil Simms inferred they quit in 4th quarter at Foxboro (they did). Buffalo is expected to get #1 QB Manuel back here; they were 2-2 in his starts, losing 27-20 at Jets in his only road start (outgained 513-328)- remember, he is a rookie. Steelers are 0-5 when they allow more than 16 points, a number Bills had hit every week until 23-13 home loss to unbeaten Chiefs last week, when they held KC without offensive TD but gave up two scores Chiefs’ defense. Buffalo outgained KC 470-210 but lost by 10 in first NFL start for undrafted rookie QB Tuel, Bills’ #3 QB. After being -11 in turnovers in first four games, Pitt was even in last four; Bills are -6 in last two games. Steelers won eight of last nine games in this series; Bills lost nine of last 11 visits here, losing 26-3 in ’07 in only visit since ’96. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-6 vs spread, 3-2 at home. AFC East road underdogs are 2-6 vs spread. Six of last eight Buffalo games went over total; three of last four Steeler games stayed under.

Raiders (3-5) @ Giants (2-6)—First road game in five weeks for Oakland squad that was torched by Eagles’ Foles last week (7 TD passes in less than three Q’s); if Foles did that much damage vs Raider defense, what will Manning do off bye week? Giants won last five post-bye games (3-2 vs spread); they won last two games before their bye, holding Freeman/Foles to one offensive TDs on 23 drives after starting season 0-6. Raiders are 0-3 away from home, losing by 4-16-17 points, but those three opponents are combined 22-3 this year. Giants gave up 77 points in losing first two home games (Denver/Philly) before shutting down Vikings 23-7; they won last two series meetings 30-21/44-7; Raiders are 3-2 playing Giants in Swamp. Oakland QB Pryor tweaked his knee last week, isn’t thought to be serious injury, but if it were, major dropoff to backup McGloin. AFC West teams are 16-9 vs spread outside their division, 6-2 as underdogs, 3-1 on road. NFC East favorites are 6-6, 4-4 at home. Under is 5-2-1 in Oakland games this season, 4-2 in Giants’ last six games.

Rams (3-6) @ Colts (6-2)—St Louis has seldom gone in tank in first 25 games under Fisher, but with career backup Clemens at QB, they’re not capable of beating good teams. Rams lost last three games by 15-5-7 points; they’re 1-3 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 7-24-15 points, with win at struggling Houston. Colts are 3-1 at home, scoring 73 points in last two home tilts, upset wins over Seattle/Denver- underdogs covered all four of their home games (0-2 as HF). Indy is in second game off its bye; Rams haven’t had theirs yet- Colts looked lost in passing game in first half in Houston last week (Luck was 6-20 at one point), as star WR Wayne missed his first game since 2001, but they rallied late and escaped Texas with a win. Fisher was 3-13 in last 16 games vs Colts when he was coaching the Titans. NFC West teams are 13-9 vs spread outside the division, 5-5 as underdogs, 3-4 on road. AFC South non-divisional home teams are 6-4, 3-2 when favored. Double digit dogs are 10-8 vs spread, league-wide. Five of last six St Louis games, three of last four Indy games went over the total.

Seahawks (8-1) @ Falcons (2-6)—Seattle barely escaped Rams/Bucs last two weeks, falling behind Tampa 21-0 at home last week; those are only two teams Atlanta has beaten this year (combined 3-14 record). Seahawks are 4-1 on road, with two wins by 5 and another by three points- they lost last four games with Atlanta, losing 30-28 in LY’s playoffs, which seem like long time ago now. Average total in last four series games is 63.3. Seahawks are 4-3 in Atlanta, but lost last two visits here by combined total of five points. Falcons lost five of last six games- they allowed 27+ points in last five losses and are -7 in turnovers last five games, throwing seven picks in last two. OL is banged up, so running ball is an issue (49 ypg in last five games) and with star WR Jones gone for year, Atlanta scored only two TDs on its last 22 drives, with nine 3/outs. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-4 vs spread, 3-1 on road. NFC South underdogs are 4-6, 1-2 at home. Six of last seven Falcon games, five of last seven Seattle games went over the total. This is Seattle’s fifth dome game out of six road games.

Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (3-5)—Cincy is -2/-2/-3 in turnovers in three losses, 6-0 in other games, four of which they were even in turnovers, so unless they give game away, teams haven’t been beating them. Clubs coming off Thursday night game are 12-4 vs spread in their next game, with 10 days’ prep; teams that lost the Thursday night game are 7-1 vs spread in their next game. Bengals had 4-game win streak snapped when they gave up safety in OT at Miami, just third team ever to lose that way. Baltimore lost to Browns last week for first time in six years; they’ve lost last three games, scoring 17 ppg (5 TDs on 32 drives)won four of last five series games; Bengals lost last three visits here, by 6-7-31 points. Cincy was held to 5.2 yards/pass attempt in Miami, after averaging 10+ yards in each of previous two games. In their last three games, Ravens ran ball 69 times for 184 yards (2.7/carry). NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-6 vs spread. Five of last seven Baltimore games stayed under total; three of last four Bengal games went over.

Lions (5-3) @ Bears (5-3)— Cutler has been cleared to come back for this game after missing 1.5 games; Bears are on short week after upsetting Packers on road Monday night. Rodgers’ injury makes this game a real battle for top spot in NFC Central, since Pack figures to fade in his absence. Lions (-3) raced out to 30-13 lead, held Bears off 40-32 back in Week 4, in game with seven turnovers (Det +1) where Detroit scored a defensive TD and had two other TD drives of 2-22 yards, just Lions’ second win in last 11 series games- should they win this game and sweep season series, they would basically have 2-game lead over Chicago in division race. Detroit lost its last five visits here, losing by 4-24-5-24-6 points. Chicago is 3-1 at home, winning by 3-1-6 points; underdogs are 3-0-1 vs spread in their home games. Bears ran ball for 311 yards in last two games, stayed afloat with backup QB McCown playing- they’ve scored 24+ points in seven of eight games. Lions’ last two games were decided by total of four points; they’re 2-3 in last five post-bye games.

Panthers (5-3) @ 49ers (6-2)—Two hot teams collide here; Carolina won/covered last four games behind defense that’s allowed only one first half TD this year- they’ve outscored opponents 96-33 in first half and covered two of three as a dog, with only non-cover 12-7 home loss to Seattle in Week 1. 49ers are 2-7 vs spread, 2-6-1 SU in last nine post-bye games, but they’ve won/covered last five games, winning by average score of 35-12, with 13 takeaways (+8) in those five games. Niners covered three of four home games, losing 27-7 to Colts in Week 3, which is also last game they lost anywhere. Panthers have 19 takeaways (+8) in last six games; they’ve won last three series games but teams haven’t played since Harbaugh became coach of Niners- Panthers won five of last seven visits here. SF allowed 172 rushing yards to Seattle, in its only game vs QB who runs well this year. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 4-6 vs spread, 3-4 on road; NFC West favorites are 8-4, 5-3 at home. Last four Carolina games and four of last five 49er games went over the total.

Texans (2-6) @ Cardinals (4-4)—Tough week for Houston, dealing with its coach having mini-stroke at halftime Sunday night; they’ve now lost six games in row and are playing rookie QB without its QB guru/play caller coach- thought they mismanaged clock at end of Indy game, punting down 3 with 2:05 left when they had only had two timeouts left, so game management also an issue with an interim coach. Texans scored 20 ppg (4 TDs/22 drives, only three 3/outs) in Keenum’s first two starts, after scoring 11.3 ppg in four games before that; Keenum has made more of effort to find star Johnson, while Schaub leaned on his TEs a lot. Arizona lost five of last six post-bye games; they’re 5-11-2 in last 18 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year. Redbirds are 3-1 SU at home, losing only on a Thursday night to Seattle. Home side won both series meetings; Texans lost 28-21 in only visit here in ’09. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-4 vs spread. Five of last seven Arizona games, three of four Houston road games stayed under the total.

Broncos (7-1) @ Chargers (4-4)—Denver’s first game without Coach Fox, who had heart valve surgery Tuesday; think this situation is less disruptive than Houston’s, where Kubiak is play caller and mentor for rookie QB. Manning still runs Denver offense, so that remains unchanged; #18 won/covered his last seven post-bye games, scoring average of 34.6 ppg. Broncos won last three series games by 3-11-7 points; they’ve won three of last four visits to Qualcomm, winning by 11-3-11 points. San Diego lost OT game in Maryland last week, when Woodhead missed crossing goal line for winning TD by inches in last minute of regulation; Chargers are 2-1 at home, losing only by FG to Texans in Week 1, when people thought Houston was good- they’ve beaten Dallas/Colts at home. Denver scored 41.7 ppg in winning two of three on road, losing last road trip at Indy, winning 51-48 at Dallas, 41-23 at Giants before that. Broncos scored 38 points in second half of their last game, rallying from 21-7 down to beat Redskins. All eight Denver games went over the total.

Cowboys (5-4) @ Saints (6-2)—New Orleans is 4-0 as home favorite this year, winning by average score of 32-15; Payton covered his last 12 regular season home games- Saints are 17-7 in game following their last 24 losses. Saints turned ball over twice in all three of their losses (-3), only three times (+9) in their five wins. Rob Ryan coached Dallas defense LY, so he has to have at least a little advantage here, vs Cowboy squad that is 1-3 on road, with losses by 1-1-9 points, with a 17-3 win at Philly (KO’d Foles after he had only 80 PY in over a half). Home team lost last five games in this series, with Saints winning seven of last eight (30-27/34-31 last two)- this is just second trip to Superdome for Dallas in last decade. Cowboys have 11 takeaways (+7) in last four games; tey ran ball only nine times last week, dropped back to pass 54 times- they won’t win shootout in this dome. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 6-6, 4-4 on road; NFC South home favorites are 5-2. Four of last five Saint games, four of last six Dallas games went over the total.

Dolphins (4-4) @ Buccaneers (0-8)—Not much to choose from here; winless Tampa led 21-0 last week in Seattle, still found way to lose- their four home losses are by 2-3-11-18 points. Bucs were outscored 80-26 in second half of last six games. Miami lost starting LT/LG after hazing debacle, Dolphin coaches are under fire, losing four of last five games after 3-0 start; they’ve been outscored 84-36 in second half of last five games. Fish ran ball for 156-157 yards in last two games, but now LG Incognito (suspended) is also out, so whole squad has had week full of distractions. Teams coming off Thursday night games are 12-4 vs spread in next game, 5-3 if they won the Thursday game. Home teams won four of last five series games; Dolphins lost three of four visits here, with win back in ’88. In eight games, covering 16 drives for both sides, Bucs have been outscored 27-3 on first drive of each half, so Tampa coaches are being outcoached. NFL-wide, non-divisional home underdogs are 19-14 vs spread. Last four Buccaneer games and five of last seven Miami games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Sunday NFL Comp Pick

November 10th 2013

Falcons +3.5 over Seattle

Atlanta has struggled this year due to injury, but most will overlook today that the Seahawks usually always struggle on the road, their best receiver is out for the year and they will be missing a few guys on their offensive line which includes their starting center. This is a tough stadium to win in and I think Atlanta will establish the run today which will allow Matt Ryan to find guys wide open. Take the Falcons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE WIZ
Sunday... In the NFL play Over 41 bet. Houston and Arizona

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From This Week's NFL PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

DALLAS (225) AT NEW ORLEANS (226)
Latest Line: New Orleans -6.0; Total: 53.5

After a narrow home win, the Cowboys visit the Saints on Sunday night. Dallas attempted a franchise-low nine carries in a 27-23 win over the Vikings last week. This team is 1-3 SU, but 3-1 ATS, on the road. New Orleans was outrushed 198 to 41 in last week's loss at the Jets, but is 4-0 (SU and ATS) at home, winning by 17.3 PPG. QB Drew Brees has thrown for 361 YPG, 14 TD and 2 INT at home, but could be without WR Marques Colston (knee) and RB Darren Sproles (concussion), who combined for 305 total yards in the Saints' 34-31 win in Dallas last year. Cowboys WR Dez Bryant had 224 rec. yards and 2 TD in that loss.
FORECASTER: New Orleans 30, Dallas 23

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bookiemonsters
172-125-3 run
POD NHL Rangers over 5

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Ben Burns

10* Packers
10* Saints
10* UNDER Rams/Colts
9* Falcons
9* Rams

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ESPN Hammerin' Hank (20-35 YTD)

San Fran -6
Saints -6.5
Titans -13
Rams +9.5
Ravens +2

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Hondo best bets
Gmen
Bungels
Niners
Lost w Washington Thursday.

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - SUNDAY NFL

No Best Bets
3* = "OVER" on BRONCOS-CHARGERS
3* = TAMPA BAY(Monday Night)
2* = NEW ORLEANS
2* = CINCINNATI
2* = GREEN BAY

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SB Professor NASCAR Picks 11/10

Paul Menard +115 over Jeff Burton
David Gilliland +105 over David Ragan

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Al Demarco

20 DIME
Teaser of the Year
WINNER # 2 IN A ROW
tease on SF & NO

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Intpicks

3* NY Giants -7
2* Baltimore +1
2* San Francisco -5/5
2* Dallas/New Orleans Over 53
1* Philadelphia -1
1* Buffalo +3
1* St Louis +10

1* Washington Wizards +9.5 (NBA)

Free Pick
Denver - San Diego - Over 58