12-8-13

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2Halves2Win:


(GAME: 1*): Chiefs-Redskins o44 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
(GAME: 2*): Vikings-Ravens o41 (-110: Risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
(GAME: 1*): Bengals -7 (-105: Risking 1.05 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
(GAME: 1*): Dolphins +3.5 (-105: Risking 1.05 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
(GAME: 1*): Giants +3.5 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)

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Cappers Accees

Eagles -3
Broncos -11.5
Panthers +3.5

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Sunday

Virginia Commonwealth -16

Detroit (NCAA BB) -4

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1138-865 (57%) over the last 5 1/2 years College FB 62-38 this yr,NFL 38-31:

Free winner Sun N E Pats - 9 1/2

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J. Clifton

CBB
Usc -1 1/2
ole miss -1
oklahoma -6

NBA
Knicks -5

NFL
BALTIMORE -7
STEELERS - 3 1/2
GIANTS OVER 48
SAN FRAN - 2 1/2
kansas city - 3

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Diamond Dog Sports

NBA Basketball 34-29-1 (-2.25u)

Over Lakers 205.0 -110 (B)

NCAA Basketball 19-26-2 (-5.86u)

#824 George Washington +3.0 -110 (A)


NFL Football
38 - 24 - 3 (+11.05u) 61.3%

Dolphins +3.5 -110 (A)
Over Steelers 40.5 (A)
Over Chargers 48.0 (A)

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Today's NBA Picks

Toronto at LA Lakers

Kobe Bryant rejoins a Laker team tonight that is coming off a 106-100 win over Sacramento and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. LA is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 8 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 801-802: Boston at New York (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 116.852; New York 115.448 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 199 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5 1/2; 193 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+5 1/2); Over

Game 803-804: Miami at Detroit (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.064; Detroit 116.524 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 9 1/2; 184 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 805-806: Indiana at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 122.407; Oklahoma City 128.889 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6 1/2; 190 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4 1/2; 194 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-4 1/2); Under

Game 807-808: Orlando at Houston (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 116.981; Houston 125.003 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 8; 212 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 809-810: Toronto at LA Lakers (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 114.187; LA Lakers 122.585 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8 1/2; 201 Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 205 Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-5 1/2); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

Washington at NY Rangers

The Capitals bring their 15-12-2 record to New York to face a Rangers team that is 2-9 in its last 11 games against a team with a winning record. Washington is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+135). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 8 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: San Jose at Minnesota (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.494; Minnesota 12.544 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115); Over

Game 3-4: Boston at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.967; Toronto 9.679 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-145); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under

Game 5-6: Washington at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.842; NY Rangers 10.766 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-155); 5 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+135); Over

Game 7-8: Florida at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida 9.873; Chicago 12.827 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-275); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-275); Under

Game 9-10: Colorado at Vancouver (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.971; Vancouver 12.431 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-145); 5 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-145); Under

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Kelso

100 pitt
50 under jets
15 st Louis
10 Seattle
10 Carolina

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Total Talk - Week 14
By Chris David

Week 13 Recap

Even though the ‘over’ went 3-0 on Thanksgiving, the ‘under’ managed to 9-7 in Week 13. Most of the results were clear-cut as four games finished with combined totals of 60 or more and there were five games that had 40 or less. On the season, the ‘over’ still holds a 100-88-2 edge.

Final Stretch

As we enter the quarter of the season, let’s point out the best total looks this season.

Best Over – Denver (10-2), St. Louis (9-3), Houston (9-4)
Notes – The Broncos and Texans play in Week 15

Best Under – Carolina (8-3-1), Kansas City (8-4), New Orleans (8-4)
Notes – The Saints is the biggest surprise here

Best Home Over – Houston (6-1), Denver (5-1), St. Louis (5-1), Tennessee (5-1), Detroit (5-1)
Notes – Three of the five teams play indoors

Best Home Under – Carolina (5-1), Philadelphia (5-1), Baltimore (5-1)
Notes – The Ravens should be 6-0 to the ‘under’ at home if it wasn’t for the late second-half in last Thursday’s game against the Steelers

Best Road Over – Philadelphia (5-1), Denver (5-1)
Notes – The Eagles play at Minnesota in Week 15 and finish the season at Dallas in Week 17

Best Road Under – New Orleans (5-1), Kansas City (4-1)
Notes – The Saints are averaging 18.3 points per game on the road, compared to 33.2 PPG at the Superdome

Non-Conference Overs

Another 2-0 record last week, pushed this number up to 42-13 (76%) on the season. We have four more non-conference (AFC vs. NFC) matchups on tap this Sunday. Will this be the week that this trend finally tempers? On paper, you can certainly make your case for some ‘under’ looks.

Kansas City at Washington
Minnesota at Baltimore
Buffalo at Tampa Bay
N.Y. Giants at San Diego

Line Moves

Minnesota at Baltimore: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41
Cleveland at New England: Line opened 45 and jumped to 47½
Atlanta at Green Bay: Line opened 47 and dropped to 45
Buffalo at Tampa Bay: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41½
N.Y. Giants at San Diego: Line opened 45 and jumped to 47
Carolina at New Orleans: Line opened 44½ and jumped to 46½

Total System Play

If you bet regularly or weekly and you frequent sites like VegasInsider.com, then I’m sure you stumbled across other sports betting information sites that have forums or message boards. A lot of users stay away from them but there are a couple reputable ones out there and even though some of the banter turns personal (why I don’t know), you can really grab some great information that can help your handicapping. You can also see a lot of people with too much free time and get a good chuckle.

With all of the above being said, I came across a great total angle many years ago and I always bring it up each season. Honestly, I forgot where I saw it or who came up with it but it’s a really good look and it comes into play this Sunday.

Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road

In 2011, this system went 4-3 (57%) but last year it went 2-0 with the Green Bay-St. Louis (Week 7) and Houston-New England (Week 14) cashing tickets. Including those results, the ‘over’ has gone 33-15-2 (69%) over the past nine seasons.

This particular angle came up earlier this season in Week 6 and I completely overlooked it. Sure enough, Philadelphia beat Tampa Bay 31-20 and the combined 51 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 45. It was the third straight road game for the Eagles.

The matchup that fits the above this week is the Tennessee-Denver matchup.

If this game goes ‘over’ then you’re looking at a 35-15-2 mark the past 10 seasons. You should keep this angle handy for future seasons and the playoffs too, because some of the Wild Card teams could fit this system if they play Week 17 on the road and win in the first round. Then the look would be the ‘over’ in the Divisional Playoff round, if played away from home.

Under the Lights

As we reach the final quarter of the season, let’s bring you up to speed with the O/U records in the primetime games this season.

Thursday: 10-4
Sunday: 8-5
Monday: 6-8

Overall, the ‘over’ has gone 24-17 (58%) in primetime affairs this season and the majority of those shootouts have occurred on Thursday and Sunday. Make a note that five of the six games on MNF went ‘over’ this season but the ‘under’ is on a 7-1 run the past eight weeks.

Carolina at New Orleans: The last four games between these teams have been shootouts and the ‘over’ has cashed in all four rather easily too. The Panthers swept the season series last year, winning 35-27 at home and 44-38 in the Superdome. As mentioned above, New Orleans is averaging 33.2 PPG at home this season. The total has also been pushed up by the betting public and will probably closer higher considering it's the last game to press. While most are expecting another high-scoring affair, you have more arguments for the ‘under’ in this spot. Carolina (13.1 PPG) leads the league in scoring defense and the Saints (19.2 PPG) are ranked sixth. Also, the Panthers (8-3-1) and Saints (8-4) have both leaned to the ‘under’ this season. Due to the MNF fiasco in Seattle, it’s been a short week for New Orleans, which usually helps the defensive units.

Dallas at Chicago: This appears to be a must-win spot for both clubs since they’re both fighting for playoff spots. Considering the stakes, I would expect a tight game from both coaches with neither hoping to make mistakes. Plus, the weather is expected to drop below 20 degrees for this contest with winds nearing 10-15 miles per hour. The Bears have watched the ‘over’ go 8-4 at home this season but the ‘under’ is 3-0 in their last three games when the total is listed at 49 or higher. This week’s number is just below (48) and I believe that’s too high. Dallas hasn’t shown any consistent offensive numbers on the road (20.8 PPG) this season outside of its 30-point performance against Detroit on Oct. 27.

Fearless Predictions

We lost 20 cents ($20) in Week 13 after picking up $190 on the holiday and losing $210 over the weekend. Overall, the bankroll is barely in the black ($70). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tennessee-Denver 49½
Best Under: Buffalo-Tampa Bay 41½
Best Team Total: Over Tennessee 17½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 40½ Tennessee-Denver
Under 59 Chicago-Dallas
Under 50 Minnesota-Baltimore

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KILLER SPORTS NEWSLETTER
Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week
5-Star Seattle +8.5, Miami +9

Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week
4-Star Baltimore +2.5, Cincinnati +3, NY Jets +7

MTi’s Newsletter Play of the YEAR
5-Star NY Giants +3 over SAN DIEGO

MTi’s Newsletter Total
4-Star Kansas City at Washington - OVER 44.5

SBB’s Newsletter Side
4-STAR Buffalo +3 over TAMPA BAY

SBB’s Newsletter Total of the Year
4.5-STAR St. Louis and Arizona - Over 41.5

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CKO
10 *DENVER over Tennessee
Late Score Forecast:
*DENVER 42 - Tennessee 19
Yes, several of the Titans are familiar with playing against Practically Perfect Peyton from his days
with Indy in the AFC South. But his last game with the Colts was in 2010. And, perhaps more
importantly, Tennessee’s last trip to the Mile High City was in 2007. So, if the Broncs get off to
any kind of a fast start, the Titan defense might never get its second wind trying to corral the
well-coordinated, uptempo, aerial game that has helped Peyton produce 41 TD passes to his
superb receiving corps in the Broncs’ first 12 games. The sometimes-overlooked Eric Decker
ignited the Chiefs’ secondary for 8 recs., 174 yards, and 4 TDs in last week’s key victory.
Meanwhile, promising rookie RB Montee Ball (13 for 117 YR last week at Kansas City) is now giving
veteran Knowshon Moreno (842 YR) plenty of help toting the ball. And don’t look for any let-up
from Manning & Co. (5-1 vs. the number at home TY), as Denver’s OT defeat two weeks ago in
Foxborough means the Broncs can’t afford a slip-up if they want to stay atop the AFC playoff
standings throughout the stretch drive (Denver can’t afford to drop into a tie with the Patriots).

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THE GOLD SHEET
♦♦♦♦♦ KEY RELEASES ♦♦♦♦♦
BALTIMORE by 18 over Minnesota
SAN FRANCISCO by 15 over Seattle
------------------------
OVER the total in the Tennessee-Denver game

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ROCKY'S WINNER CIRCLE NEWSLETTER
NFL OVER / UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
Denver vs Tennessee - OVER 48.5

DID YO U KNOW THAT
EAGLES 1-12 ATS last 13 home games.
LIONS however, 0-12 ATS on road off home win, when pk, to +3.
STEELERS UNDER 9 of last 10 as home favorites.
RAMS OVER 13-4 last 17 played in Domes

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THE GREEN SHEET
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 BALTIMORE (-7) over Minnesota
RATING 4 ST. LOUIS (+6) over Arizona
RATING 3 CINCINNATI (-5½) over Indianapolis
RATING 2 TENNESSEE (+12½) over Denver
RATING 1 SAN DIEGO (-3½) over NY Giants