12-22-13

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NHL

Sunday, December 22

Hot teams
-- Canucks won eight of their last ten games.

Cold teams
-- Rangers lost six of last seven games. Minnesota lost five of its last six road games.
-- Jets are 1-5 in game following their last six wins.

Totals
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Minnesota's last seven games.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Vancouver games. Over is 4-0-1 in last five Winnipeg games.

Series records
-- Minnesota lost three of last four games in Madison Square Garden.
-- Canucks won four of last five games with Winnipeg.

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NFL

Week 16

Dolphins (8-6) @ Bills (5-9)-- Miami is 5-2 since the bullying fiasco, winning last three games by 20-6-4 points; they lost 23-21 (-7.5) at home to Buffalo in Week 7, turning ball over three times (-2), converting 3-13 on thirrd down (Bills were 9-19). Five of last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points; Fish won two of last three visits here, after losing previous seven. Buffalo lost five of its last seven games; they're 3-4 at home- Bills are +9 in their five wins, -8 in losses. You'd think Fish would be in trouble up north in December, but they've already won games in Swamp/Pittsburgh this month. Miami is 4-3 on road this season. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in AFC East divisional games, 3-0 if underdogs. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Miami games; three of last four Buffalo games went over the total.

Saints (10-4) @ Panthers (10-4)-- First place in NFC South on line here; Saints are averaging 14.5 ppg less on road than at home- they've lost four of last five games on road, outscored 51-10 in first half of last two. Saints lost to Jets/Rams on road, red flags. NO beat Carolina 31-13 (-3) two weeks ago, holding Newton to 2.8 ypa; it is only game Panthers didn't have at least one play of 20+ yards. Panthers won last six home games (5-0-1 vs spread) after losing home opener 12-7 to Seahawks; Carolina won nine of last ten games overall after 1-3 start. Saints are 0-2 as dogs this year. Home teams are 8-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games, 6-0 if they are favored. Last five Saint games, five of last six Carolina games stayed under total. Carolina swept Saints LY, but lost last five games against Sean Payton.

Cowboys (7-7) @ Redskins (3-11)-- Hard to pick either side here; Dallas allowed 82 points in losing last two games, outscored 55-24 in second half- they blew 26-3 halftime lead to Pack's #4 QB last week. Cowboys are 7-3 in last ten series games, winning 31-16 (-6) in first meeting, in game where Skins outgained Dallas 433-213, but gave up PR for TD and TD drives of 15-3 yards. Washington lost last six in a row (1-5 vs spread); Cousins threw for 373 yards last week but they missed 2-pt play in last minute that would've won game. Cowboys are 3-2 in last five visits to DC; they're 1-3 on grass fields this season. Home teams are 4-6 vs spread in NFC East divisional games, 0-1 if home dogs. Last seven Cowboy games, six of last nine Washington games went over total.

Buccaneers (4-10) @ Rams (6-8)-- St Louis is favored for first time since beating Jaguars 34-20 (-11) in Week 5; they seem to play better vs better teams, with wins over three of eight division leaders. Rams are +17 in turnovers in six wins, -7 in the losses; they're 4-3 SU at home, 1-1 as home faves. Bucs won four of last six after an 0-8 start; they're 2-4 on road, 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 1-20-8-3-21 points, with only win 24-21 at Lions (they were +5 in turnovers). Tampa Bay is 4-6 as underdogs this year, 2-3 on road. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 19-5-1 vs spread, 10-4-1 at home; NFC South road dogs are 6-5. Three of last four Tampa Bay and last three Ram tilts stayed under the total. This is Bucs' first visit here since '04; they're 5-2 vs Rams since losing 11-6 in '00 NFC title game here.

Bears (8-6) @ Eagles (8-6)-- Philly won last two home games, 24-16/34-20 after breaking long losing skid at Linc; they're 5-3 in last eight games as favorite. Chicago scored 83 points in winning last two games; they've averaged 7.2+ ypa in last four games, as teams have trouble covering their big WRs. Chicago won four of last five series games (all decided by 6 or less points), in series where road teams won six of last eight meetings. Bears won last week despite allowing two defensive TDs; they won field position in 10 of 14 games this year. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-13 vs spread, 6-8 at home; NFC North road underdogs are 4-7. Four of last five Bear games went over total; five of last six Philly home games stayed under the total. Detroit's loss Monday night puts Chicago in control of own destiny to win the NFC North- they play Packers at home next week.

Browns (4-10) @ Jets (6-8)-- Cleveland scored two defensive TDs and still lost to Chicago last week, bad sign for team that lost last five games and eight of last nine. Browns are +3 in turnovers in last two games, -6 for year; Jets are -19 for season, -20 in losses, +1 in wins. Gang Green scored 37-20 points in last two games after not scoring TD in previous two games; they've lost field position by 10+ yards in each of last four losses. Jets are 5-2 at home, scoring 3-6 points in losses to Miami, Steelers; Browns are 1-5 on road, 3-3 as road dog; they had Patriots 26-14 at 2:00 warning of last road game, lost by point. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 11-6-2 vs spread, 6-4-2 at home; AFC East favorites are 7-4, 5-3 at home. Six of last eight Jet games, six of last seven Cleveland games went over the total.

Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (11-3)-- There's chance these teams could meet in first round of playoffs in two weeks; Indy is 11-2 in last 13 series games, 3-0 in playoff tilts. Colts won six of last seven visits here, winning 20-13 LY; Chiefs are 2-5 vs spread at home, losing 41-38/35-28 in last two, after winning first five-- they scored 101 points in winning last two games on road- they led 38-10/35-17 at half the last two weeks. Colts lost 40-11/42-28 in last two road games- they were outscored 79-12 in first half of last four away games. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 13-9 vs spread, 7-5 at home; AFC South underdogs are 8-16-1, 6-7-1 on road. Chiefs' last four games and six of last eight Indy games went over total. Chiefs have four TDs on defense/special teams in their last three games. This is bigger game for KC, who could get a first-round bye if they win AFC West.

Vikings (4-9-1) @ Bengals (9-5)-- Cincy won/covered all six home games, beating Pack/Pats/Colts at home; Bengals are 6-0-1 in second half of last seven games, with 116-59 scoring edge after halftime since Week 8. Minnesota is competing, covering six of last seven games, going 2-1-1 SU in last four; 41-20 loss at Seattle was only time in last seven games they lost by more than 7 points. Vikings are 5-3 as road dogs- they hung 48 on Philly last week with Peterson sitting out- they averaged 9.7 ypa with Cassel throwing for 370 yards, but this game is outdoors, and against a better defense. Bengals now have Ravens breathing down their neck, so this is big games for them. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-5 vs spread this season; NFC North road underdogs are 4-7. 12 of 14 Viking games, six of last eight Cincinnati games went over total.

Broncos (11-3) @ Texans (2-12)-- Denver wins division/first round bye with two wins to close season; Houston lost its last 12 games, fired its coach, now goes back to original starting QB Schaub with backup Keenum hurt. Broncos are 3-3 as road favorites; they've got road wins by 18-3-8-7, with losses at Indy/Foxboro. Texans are 2-11-1 vs spread this year, 1-6 at home, 1-2 as home dogs, with losses at home by 3-25-3-5-7-3 points. Run defense has been problem for Houston- they've given up 146.4 rushing yards/game in last five games. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 13-8 vs spread, 6-4 on road; AFC South underdogs are 8-16-1, 2-9 at home. 11 of 14 Bronco tilts and five of last seven Houston games went over total. Broncos had ten days off since getting up 27-20 at home by Chargers in last game.

Titans (5-9) @ Jaguars (4-10)-- Jags' first win after 0-8 start was 29-27 (+11) back in Week 10 in Nashville; Titans lost three fumbles, were -2 in TOs, lost despite outgaining Jaguars 362-214. Titans converted 10-18 on 3rd down. Four of last five series games were decided by 6 or less points;Tennessee lost three of their last four visits here, losing by 20-2-5 points. Jags are 4-2 since starting 0-8, but three of four wins were on road- they're 1-6 SU/ATS at home, with five losses by 13+ points. Titans lost three in row, eight of last 11 games; they're 5-2 vs spread on road, 3-4 on road, winning by 7-7-4 points- this is their fourth road game in last five weeks. Home teams are 3-5-1 against spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-2-1 if home dogs. Over is 8-2-1 in Tennessee's last 11 games, 8-2 in Jaguars' last ten.

Cardinals (9-5) @ Seahawks (12-2)-- Seattle clinches home field thru NFC playoffs with win here; they've won eight of last nine games, covering last five. Seattle won first meeting 34-22 (-5.5) at Seattle in Week 7, outrushing Redbirds 135-30, sacking Palmer seven times. Arizona lost last three visits here, losing 58-0 LY, but they've won six of last seven games overall (6-0-1 vs spread). Cardinals need win to stay in Wild Card chase; they converted 14-26 on 3rd down last two games, but Palmer is banged up and Fitzgerald got concussion on muffed onside kick last week (expected to play here). Seahawks won eight of last nine games, with last four wins by 21+ points. NFC West divisional home favorites are 4-1 against spread. Six of last nine Arizona games wne tover total; four of last five Seattle games stayed under.

Giants (5-9) @ Lions (7-7)-- Two most turnover-prone teams (39-31) meet in this one, after Detroit had costly Monday night loss where Ravens won despite their only scoring coming on six FGs, including GW 61-yarder. Detroit has horrendous -18 turnover ratio (5-23) in last seven games, going 3-4, with two of wins by 1-2 points. Giants were shut out in first half of last two games (37-0); they're 2-5 vs spread as underdogs this year, 2-3 on road, with road losses by 5-38-24-6-23- its only road wins were against divisional rivals. Big Blue is 15 of last 56 on 3rd down, as lack of playmakers/strong OL has hampered immobile Manning. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 6-11 vs spread, 5-7 on road. Six of last nine Detroit games went over total. Lions can still win NFC North with two wins and a little help.

Raiders (4-10) @ Chargers (7-7)-- Oakland is 18-9 vs spread in last 27 games as a divisional underdog; they've won two of last three visits here, after losing previous seven. Oakland (+4.5) upset Chargers 27-17 at home in Week 5, outrushing Bolts 104-32 with +5 turnover ratio. San Diego had only two TDs in five trips into red zone. Raiders lost last four games, are 4-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 4-16-17-4-7-10 points, with win at Houston. Bolts are 3-2 as favorites, 3-3 SU at home, wiith wins by 9-10-23 points- they've had ten days off since winning last Thursday in Denver. Only one of SD's last three series wins was by more than 8 points. AFC West divisional favories are 6-3 vs spread, 3-2 at home. Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Oakland games; six of last nine Charger games stayed under.

Steelers (6-8) @ Packers (7-6-1)-- Green Bay wins division if they win last couple games, but Rodgers is out for 7th straight game- Pack won last two games by point each, after going 0-4-1 in five before that, as 4th-stringer Flynn rallied GB back to win last week after being down 26-3 at half. Packers are 0-4 vs spread in last four home games, after winning/covering first three with Rodgers; they're 3-3 as home favorites, 0-3 without #12. Steelers beat rival Bengals last week, host Browns next week, figure to let down here since they're out of contention. Pitt covered last four games as an underdog AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 11-5-2 vs spread, 6-3-2 on road. NFC North favorites are 5-13-2, 3-8-2 at home. Four of Steelers' last five games, three of last four Green Bay games went over the total.

Patriots (10-4) @ Ravens (8-6)-- Pats won seven of ten series games, with two of three losses in playoffs; they've won two of last three visits here, losing 31-30 LY. NE is playing for first round bye, which is big; they're 3-0 vs spread this year in game following a loss, winning by 3-10-3 points. Ravens won last four games, last three by combined total of seven points- they're on short work week after winning at Detroit without scoring a TD. Pats lost four of last five road games, with win at Houston when they trailed 17-7 at half. Ravens are 6-1 at home, with only loss to Packers 19-17, with Rodgers. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 11-13 vs spread, 3-10 on road; AFC North favorites are 8-9, 6-5 at home. Three of last four Patriot games went over; five of last seven Raven home games stayed under.

Falcons (4-10) @ 49ers (10-4)-- Niners are bully team; other than Seattle win, its last eight wins are all by 12+ points- they're 4-3 as home favorites. Atlanta has had awful year but they're still competing; their last four games (2-2) were decided by 4 or less points; they're +8 in turnovers last three weeks, after being + in turnovers in only one of first eleven games. SF hasn't been minus in turnovers since Week 3 loss to Indy. Falcons covered last three games as a dog, won four of five games vs SF since teams stopped being division rivals, but 49ers won 28-24 in Atlanta in LY's playoffs, which seems like long time ago for Falcon fans. NFC West favorites are 19-5-2 vs spread, 9-3-1 at home; NFC South underdogs are 8-9, 6-5 on road. five of 49ers' last six games stayed under total. This is last game in Candlestick Park.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power Play Wins

NFL Carolina -3

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Cappers Advantage
charlotte:
Jags +4 (-110) 1.10
Browns +1 (-110) 1.10 (4 units)
Lions -10 (-110) 4.40
Panthers -3 (-125) 1.25
Bucs under 43 (-110) 1.10
Bucs +3.5 1.10
Bills +3 (-130) 1.30

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN

500 Broncos

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JASON SHARPE
***NFL GAME OF THE YEAR***

7 Unit Play Take #110 Philadelphia -3 over Chicago (8:30pm est):
The Chicago Bears continue to do just enough to get by as they came from behind to beat the
Cleveland Browns last Sunday. The win took the Bears to 3-4 on the road this year but two of
those wins were fluke victories as they were outplayed against Pittsburgh earlier in the season
but took advantage of a plus five turnover margin to steal the win and another road win was in
the game Green Bay lost Aaron Rodgers early on to an injury. Their losses on the road have come
against some of the worst teams in the NFC this season, the Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams
and the Washington Redskins who are a combined 13-28-1 on the season this year.
The Philadelphia Eagles were feeling real good about themselves going into last week's game in
Minnesota at 8-5 overall. That all came to a screeching halt though as the Vikings jumped out to
an early lead and never looked back. The loss was the Eagles first defeat since way back in late
October. This has still been a great season for Philadelphia as they control their own destiny to
get into the playoffs. Match-up wise you couldn't ask for a better opponent here for the Eagles
as the Bears simply cannot stop the run and rank towards the very bottom of the league in
rushing defense. On offense Philadelphia loves to run the football and does so very effectively as
well.
The Bears lack consistency and have failed to cover eight of their last ten games after a straight
up win. They are also just 3-8 ATS their last 11 games coming into this one. Look for the Eagles
defense to be fired up here and to play this game all out especially after last week's huge failed
opportunity where they walked off the field embarrassed by how poorly they played.
Take Philadelphia minus the points.

3 Unit Play Take #106 Washington +3 over Dallas (1:00pm est):
The Dallas Cowboys blowing a late game lead last week to the Green Bay Packers wasn't as
surprising to me as it was to most folks. The Cowboys defense is absolutely horrid so allowing five
straight possessions for touchdowns wasn't that surprising and more than anything it once again
speaks to just how bad this team really is on the defensive side of the football. In fact I still feel
the betting markets aren't grasping just how far down this team is overall.
You get the sense the Washington Redskins came out of their loss last week to Atlanta excited
about what they seen on the field from quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Redskins have lost six
straight games but go back and take a look at who has beaten Washington this year. The
Redskins lost to the playoff bound Chiefs, 49ers, Eagles 2x, Broncos and also were beaten by the
Lions, Packers and Cowboys all of which are also in the playoff hunt still. In fact of their ten
losses thus far, the Redskins have been defeated by seven teams with .500 records or better.
Their other three defeats were to teams with losing records all came by seven points or less.
With this being Redskins great London Fletcher last career home game I expect a maximum effort
here in this one from the home team. Add in the fact you know the Skins would love nothing more
than to put a dagger in the hearts of their longtime rivals playoff hopes. Take Washington in this
one.

3 Unit Play Take #125 Oakland +10 over San Diego (4:25pm est):
Double digit favorites in the NFL are usually reserved for top notch teams and the San Diego
Chargers are definitely not that. Your being taxed a premium here to back San Diego off their big
Thursday night win over Denver last week. The entire nation seen that victory by the Chargers
and most elevated this very mediocre football team up a notch or two to high by the looks of this
current line. Keep in mind this is easily one of the bottom five defenses in the league as they have
allowed over an incredible six yards per play on the season. San Diego is also just 2-9 against the
number the week following a straight up win.
The opposite is true for the Oakland Raiders as they come in off an ugly loss last week to Kansas
City. They are 9-3 ATS the game following a defeat. Sure it was a bad defeat last weekend losing
56-31 to the Chiefs but that loss had more to do with the seven Oakland turnovers than anything
else. In fact the Raiders had 461 yards of offense in the game which was almost 100 yards more
than what KC posted. Despite the numerous turnovers in the contest the Raiders tried to make a
game of it cutting the Chiefs lead down to just four points late in the third quarter before KC
added three touchdowns to seal the win.
The Raiders should be able to keep this game close. Take Oakland and the points here

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Insiders Club

Jacksonville +5
Baltimore -1.5
Giants /Lions under 49

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Kelso

200 lions
25 ravens
15 Carolina
10 chiefs
10 under jets

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Intpicks

2* Cincinnati -8
2* Oakland +10
1* Carolina -3
1* Miami -2
1* Arizona +10.5
1* Chicago/Philadelphia Over 55.5
1* Northwestern -6.5
1* Boston +12.5

-24.60 Units since 11/25

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Cleveland Insider

NFL
4.5* Colts/Chiefs under 46.5
2* Buccaneers/Rams over 43
1* Titans/Jaguars under 44
1* Cowboys/Redskins under 52
1* Raiders/Chargers under 51

NHL
1* Minnesota/NY Rangers under 5
1* Winnipeg/Vancouver under 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard NFL

Panthers -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy NFL

Panthers ML

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Steve Janus NFL

Panthers -3

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THE GOLD SHEET

Key Releases

CAROLINA by 14 over New Orleans
SEATTLE by 21 over Arizona

OVER the total in the Dallas-Washington game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Victor King's Totals Tip Sheet

3* Vikings/Bengals over
2* Giants/Lions over
2* Raiders/Chargers under (Speedee's)