7-21-14

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Indians dominating Twins at Miller Park as of late
Stephen Campbell

The confines of Miller Park have been kind to the Cleveland Indians lately. In their last six visits to Minneapolis, the Tribe is 6-0. Minnesota will try to reverse that trend when they host Cleveland Monday.

The Indians are currently -123 faves on the moneyline with a total of nine.

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ChiSox ice cold against AL Central opponents
Stephen Campbell

The Chicago White Sox have been struggling immensely in divisional games recently, going 1-10 in their last 11 against the AL Central. The Sox will try and turn things around when they host the Kansas City Royals Monday.

Sportsbooks currently list Chicago as -167 faves with a total of 7.5.

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Recent history shows Blue Jays have Lackey's number
Stephen Campbell

The Toronto Blue Jays will be happy to see Jon Lackey on the mound when his Boston Red Sox come to town Monday. In Lackey's last eight starts against the Jays, the Sox are an awful 1-7.

Sportsbooks presently list Toronto as -113 faves with an O/U of 8.5 for the Al East matchup.

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Under trending with this pitcher on the road
Stephen Campbell

In Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu's last eight outings away from home, the Under is 6-1-1. Ryu and the Dodgers will pay a visit to the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park Monday.

The Bucs are currently -108 faves with a total of 7.5.

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Blue Jays, Giants “taking their best shot” at Chase Utley
Drew Silva

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe drops the following blurb in his weekly Sunday notes column

Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies — Right now it doesn’t appear that Utley is going anywhere because he can invoke his 10-5 rights and it looks as if he wants to remain in Philadelphia. But there’s time. And it hasn’t stopped teams such as the Blue Jays and Giants from taking their best shot, and they likely will through the end of the month.

Toronto second basemen — a mix of Steve Tolleson, Brett Lawrie, Munenori Kawasaki, Ryan Goins, and a couple others — have posted a combined .254/.312/.365 batting line this season. And the Giants just got Marco Scutaro back from the disabled list but can’t count on him to play every day and stay healthy.

Utley is hitting .289/.347/.441 with eight home runs and 46 RBI in 93 games this season at age 35. “I guess we’d have to see at that point,” he told MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki in late June when asked about the possibility of being shopped at the July 31 trade deadline. “But I don’t plan on going anywhere.”

Utley is making $15 million this season, owed $15 million next season, and holds $15 million vesting options for the 2016-2018 campaigns. They vest if he reaches 500 plate appearances in the year previous.

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Danny Salazar will return to the major leagues on Tuesday
Drew Silva

MLB.com beat writer Jordan Bastian confirms that the Indians will recall right-hander Danny Salazar from Triple-A Columbus to start Tuesday night against the Twins at Minneapolis’ Target Field.

Salazar opened the 2014 regular season as a member of Cleveland’s starting rotation but was optioned to the minors after posting a rough 5.53 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over his first eight starts. Those struggles continued at Triple-A but he’s been much better lately, boasting a 2.32 ERA and 39 strikeouts over his last 31 innings (five starts) for the Clippers.

Salazar has excellent raw stuff and could provide a nice boost for the big league rotation down the stretch if he’s able to reign in some of his control issues. The 24-year-old posted a promising 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 65/15 K/BB ratio across his first 52 major league frames last season for the Tribe.

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT

#901 SAN FRANCISCO @ #902 PHILADELPHIA - 7:05 PM
•Giants RH Ryan Vogelsong (5-7, 3.86 ERA, WHIP: 1.277) - Vogelsong has lost four straight starts, but allowed only eight runs, 22 hits and three walks over 24 2/3 innings in that span. The 36-year-old North Carolina native is 3-2 on the road in eight starts with a 5.18 ERA – 2-5 and 3.04 at home. Chase Utley is 3-for-6 in his career against Vogelsong, who is 1-0 in five appearances (two starts) with a 3.00 ERA versus the Phillies.

--KEY STAT: VOGELSONG is 6-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.8, OPPONENT 2.8.

--VOGELSONG is 6-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.8, OPPONENT 2.8.

--VOGELSONG is 24-8 UNDER (+15.3 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOGELSONG 3.5, OPPONENT 3.1.

•Phillies LH Cliff Lee (4-4, 3.18 ERA, WHIP: 1.279) - Lee could be auditioning for several teams looking for a top-of-the-rotation starter with the trade deadline looming on July 31. The 2008 American League Cy Young winner triumphed in his last outing against Cincinnati on May 18, yielding two runs over 6 2/3 innings. Michael Morse is also 9-for-23 against Lee, who boasts a 1.77 ERA at home this season despite winning only once in four decisions.

--KEY STAT: LEE is 6-16 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 2.8, OPPONENT 4.1.

--LEE is 23-8 UNDER (+14.1 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEE 4.3, OPPONENT 3.6.

#903 LA DODGERS @ #904 PITTSBURGH - 7:05 PM
•Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (10-5, 3.44 ERA, WHIP: 1.233) - Ryu rebounded from the worst start of his season to put forth one of his best July 13 against San Diego. He struck out a season-high 10 while limiting the Padres to just two hits in six scoreless innings. The 27-year-old, who allowed two runs in six innings to beat Pittsburgh at home May 31, is 6-2 with a 2.75 ERA on the road.

--KEY STAT: RYU is 18-6 (+11.8 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was RYU 5.0, OPPONENT 2.8.

•Pirates RH Edinson Volquez (8-6, 3.65 ERA, WHIP: 1.207) - Volquez is coming off his second career complete game, a six-hitter at St. Louis on July 10. The surging veteran is 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA in four starts since a rocky outing against Cincinnati on June 18. Volquez was solid through five innings in a win at Los Angeles on June 1 and is 3-3 with a 3.83 ERA in eight career starts versus the Dodgers.

--KEY STAT: VOLQUEZ is 12-5 (+9.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOLQUEZ 4.6, OPPONENT 3.6.

--VOLQUEZ is 23-10 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOLQUEZ 3.6, OPPONENT 3.2.

--VOLQUEZ is 14-3 (+11.7 Units) against the money line after giving up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was VOLQUEZ 6.6, OPPONENT 3.0.
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#905 MIAMI @ #906 ATLANTA - 7:10 PM
•Marlins RH Tom Koehler (6-7, 3.99 ERA, WHIP: 1.234) - Koehler did not get a decision in his final start before the All-Star break, allowing three runs on just two hits in 6 1/3 innings July 12 against the New York Mets. That followed his worst outing of the year, in which Koehler gave up seven runs over three innings July 7 at Arizona. He is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts against the Braves this season.

•Braves RH Julio Teheran (9-6, 2.71 ERA, WHIP: 1.042) - Teheran did not pitch in the All-Star game and makes his first appearance since July 13 against the Chicago Cubs when he yielded four runs on seven hits over seven innings to earn the win. The 23-year-old ranks fifth in the National League in WHIP (1.04) and sixth in ERA (2.71). Teheran has made two starts against Miami this season, going 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA and two walks and 13 strikeouts.

--KEY STAT: TEHERAN is 11-2 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in home games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.2, OPPONENT 2.0.

--TEHERAN is 24-10 UNDER (+12.4 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.5, OPPONENT 3.4.

--TEHERAN is 10-1 UNDER (+8.8 Units) as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was TEHERAN 3.3, OPPONENT 2.1.

#907 CINCINNATI @ #908 MILWAUKEE - 8:10 PM
•Reds RH Mat Latos (2-1, 2.79 ERA, WHIP: 0.802) - Latos left his last start before the All-Star break after five innings due to back spasms, but Price said he’s pain-free heading into Monday’s outing. The 26-year-old, who missed the first two months of the season due to elbow and knee injuries, went 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA in three starts before allowing four runs (three earned) against Pittsburgh on July 11. Latos is 3-4 with a 3.16 ERA in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.

•Brewers RH Wily Peralta (10-6, 3.72 ERA, WHIP: 1.289) - Peralta entered the All-Star break on a high note by holding St. Louis to an unearned run over seven innings on July 13. It was a much-needed strong performance by the 25-year-old, who posted a 9.37 ERA over his previous three starts. Chris Heisey is 5-for-10 with a home run against Peralta, who improved to 2-3 with a 3.14 ERA in seven career starts against the Reds with eight scoreless innings in a 2-0 victory at Cincinnati on May 2.

--KEY STAT: PERALTA is 9-2 against the run line (+9.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PERALTA 5.5, OPPONENT 3.5.

#909 WASHINGTON @ #910 COLORADO - 8:40 PM
•Nationals RH Doug Fister (8-2, 2.90 ERA, WHIP: 1.069) - Fister allowed two runs and seven hits in seven innings of a 6-2 victory at Baltimore on July 9. "You don't ever feel like you're out of the game when he's out there," Werth told CSN Washington regarding the 30-year-old California native. "I think there's something about how he works. He works quick. He throws strikes. He keeps you on your toes." Fister is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in two career starts against Colorado but never has pitched at Coors Field.

--KEY STAT: FISTER is 16-6 UNDER (+9.0 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was FISTER 3.8, OPPONENT 2.5.

•Rockies LH Franklin Morales (5-4, 5.26 ERA, WHIP: 1.523) - Morales yielded one run and four hits while walking three and striking out six in 5 2/3 innings of a 2-1 victory over San Diego on July 8 after receiving a no-decision in a 3-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers five days earlier, when he allowed two runs (one earned) in five frames. It is a significant improvement as a starter for the 28-year-old Venezuelan, who posted a 6.13 ERA in his previous 11 turns this season. Morales, who is 5-0 with a 3.09 ERA in 43 2/3 innings versus the NL West and 0-4, 7.42 in 43 2/3 frames against everyone else, makes his first career start against Washington after five scoreless relief appearances from 2009-12.

--KEY STAT: MORALES is 13-4 (+10.3 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was MORALES 4.9, OPPONENT 4.0.

--MORALES is 9-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MORALES 5.5, OPPONENT 3.9.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Monday

Indians -125

Mets +105

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Cappers Access

Brewers -125

Mets +110

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Angels on Sunday and likes the Reds on Monday.

The deficit is 304 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo broke through with his first victory of the second half Sunday night, scoring with the Dodgers to largely offset his loss with the Giants and put the deficit at 1,390 mclains.

Monday night: Mr. Aitch likes the Rays, because there’s always the possibility Wainwright, bless his generous heart, will “pipe” a couple of pitches to Longoria — 10 units on Odorizzi.

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Today's MLB Picks

Texas at NY Yankees

The Rangers (21-29 on the road) head to New York tonight to open their series against a Yankees team that is 1-5 in its last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Texas is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+155). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

MONDAY, JULY 21 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: San Francisco at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.174; Philadelphia (Lee) 16.486 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 7 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-145); Over

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 17.538; Pittsburgh (Volquez) 16.073 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Under

Game 905-906: Miami at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 13.743; Atlanta (Teheran) 15.886 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Over

Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 14.305; Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.973 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); Under

Game 909-910: Washington at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Fister) 14.414; Colorado (Morales) 15.388 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+125); Under

Game 911-912: Texas at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Mikolas) 15.105; NY Yankees (Greene) 14.164 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-175); 9 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+155); Over

Game 913-914: Boston at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 16.563; Toronto (Hutchison) 14.397 Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 8 Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-105); Under

Game 915-916: Cleveland at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (House) 14.623; Minnesota (Johnson) 15.568 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Over

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.842; White Sox (Sale) 18.484 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-175); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-175); Under

Game 919-920: Baltimore at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 16.106; LA Angels (Shoemaker) 18.624 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); Over

Game 921-922: Detroit at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 17.861; Arizona (Nuno) 14.826 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-155); Over

Game 923-924: NY Mets at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 13.938; Seattle (Elias) 16.939 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 6 Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Under

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Chase Diamond

10* Pittsburgh Pirates +106

This game features the 55-45 Dodgers at the 52-46 Pirates. Is there a team hotter then the Pirates right now in MLB? They have won 3 straight and are 32-20 at home and should be the more motivated team tonight. Edinson Volquez is on the mound tonight he is 8-6 with a 3.65 ERA. 68% public backing on the Dodgers here and this line is barely moving.

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Art Aronson

RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION
White Sox-1.5+120