7-21-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NonStopSportsPicks

2* Giants/Phillies UNDER 7, EVEN
This is the best this # will get, IMO. So we'll take it now while we don't have to pay juice for the total, which is something we always prefer. Cliff Lee returns to the mound tonight, and he's simply owned the Giants in 6 regular season starts, having an ERA of UNDER 1. Brandon Belt is going to miss this game for the Giants, and that DOES take away some of their power. But really, they just don't score frequently enough and Lee is a pitcher who 'Bends but doesn't Break'. Plus, he's on the trading block, and SHOULD be motivated, focused, and fresh off his two month hiatus. On the other side, Volegsong has been pitching REALLY well as of late, and for whatever reason, just hasn't had ANY run support. But the Phillies aren't an offensive juggernaut, and I think Vogelsong will hold them down tonight. Taking the UNDER here for a medium-sized play.

1.5* Seattle/Mets OVER 7.5, 105
We're going a LITTLE smaller on this one simply because the Mets haven't been hitting very well. But they also played in Petco, which is a pitchers ballpark. And tonight on the mound we have two pitchers who have done LITTLE more than throw batting practice for teams as of late. Elias has an ERA OVER 10 in recent games, and Niese hasn't been much better, having an ERA of OVER 6 as of late. So, we'll take a shot here. One other thing we like is tired bullpens for Seattle. LOTS of extra innings (16 and 12) in their last series and that DOES matter if Elias can't go deep tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Behind The Bets

Mariners -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS


Texas +156 over N.Y. YANKEES


This isn’t an easy game to pull the trigger on because the Rangers are playing like dog doo-doo and the Yankees are warm but if we’re playing value like we always do, it’s a game we have to pull the trigger on. Shane Green cannot be favored in this range, not yet anyway. Greene was not called up to the Yankees because he was dominating at AAA-Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, as he was just 5-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 66 innings. A string of injuries in the rotation opened up a spot for Greene and he has made the most of his chance, as both of his starts have resulted in pure quality one’s. He struck out nine in his most recent start, throwing 7.1 scoreless innings against Baltimore no less. Still, how can one trust two major league starts when this guy was having trouble getting batters out in the minors. He pitched 496 career minor league innings and posted a career minor-league ERA of 4.35, with a WHIP of 1.46 and BAA of .289! That was in the MINORS. Dude didn’t discover some secret sauce and while he may do well again, he’s a must fade at this price.


Miles Mikolas is an interesting case; he's mostly been a reliever in the minors, and has posted excellent minor-league numbers in his high-minors seasons (minor-league ERAs of 2.83 in 2012, 2.96 in 2013). He's made six starts and 10 relief appearances at Triple-A this year, with a fine 38/3 K/BB ratio in 45 IP. Texas has stated that he'll be in the rotation for at least a while because they like what they see despite the ERA 10.12 after three starts. Mikolas has struck out 12 batters in 14 innings while issuing just three walks. He has a groundball bias profile to go along with an xERA of 4.13. He’s been throttled by a very unlucky 44% strand rate. We’re not trying to sell you on Mikolas. He may very well get lit up again here but he has far more upside than Green in terms of talent and as mentioned above, Shane Green was an emergency call up for one game. He was not a projected prospect, nor was he on their call-up radar when they needed a real pitcher for an extended period of time. Green will get hammered over and over again and subsequently sent back down. That may not happen today but keep him on your fade radar. Overlay.




SEATTLE -118 over N.Y. Mets


What we have here is two pitchers, Jonathan Niese and Roenis Elias, both with misleading surface stats and the former may be in big trouble. Niese comes in with a 2.96 ERA but his xERA since May is 4.09 and even that may be a bit flattering. Niese has an overall swinging strike rate of 6% and just 73 K’s in 109 innings. Last year he was diagnosed with a partially torn rotator and missed almost two months. This year, he’s having shoulder issues again. He left his 4th of July start after being hit in the back with a line drive. The Mets thought they had dodged the proverbial bullet when that injury was diagnosed as a bruise, but the same shoulder issues that slowed him this past spring are sidelining him again. Niese has a 1.62 WHIP and 5.88 ERA over his last two starts and he’ll now face a Mariners team that is 21-12 against southpaws this season.


Roenis Elias quietly continues to post elite skills that are flying under the radar. He posted outstanding under the hood stats in both May and June. An adjustment earlier in games could help him take a noticeable step forward, as Elias is in the top 15 in the league in skills (swinging strike rate, xERA) the second and third time through the order. In other words, he gets stronger as the game goes on. The Mets' bats are cold with just one run scored over their last two games and this park is very unkind to struggling batters. On paper, this pooch may look appealing but we see an undervalued favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers

Atlanta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy

Texas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns MLB Per Fav

Chicago WS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Rose

Giants +121

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Picks Portfolio

NYY -174
ATL Under 7.5 -115
CIN +117

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsAtari
MLB PLAY OF THE DAY

Atlanta Braves -1 (-132)

Risking 2.14 units to win 1.62 units

7:10pm start

Teheran, Koehler must start

The Marlins visit the Braves after dropping 2 of 3 against the Giants. They hold a 17-28 away record and they’ve be to 3 runs or less in 8 of 9 games. Miami has lost 6 of 7 games and they’re in for a rough one in a huge pitching mismatch.

Tom Koehler is 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA in his last 2. This is a team ranking 22nd in ERA at 4.04 and Koehler’s position here is shaky at best. Miami is 3-7 in his last 10 as a road dog and 1-5 in his last 6 overall. Miami is also 2-5 in their last 7 in Atlanta which is generally a tough place to win for any team, especially when the Braves are rolling.

Atlanta has won 13 of 19, 4 of 5 and 2 of 3 games this past weekend. They are 6-2 in their last 8 games at home and 12-4 as a favorite. They are also 13-6 when Teheran starts and 8-2 when he’s at home. Teheran is 9-6 with a 2.71 ERA with 1-0, 1.88 ERA in 2 starts over Miami this season.
Take the home team and cash it.


BONUS PLAYS

Washington Nationals -1 (-113)

Risking 2.26 to win 2 units

8:40pm start

Fister, Morales must start

The Nationals are coming off a walk-off win over the Brewers yesterday and they’re finally piling on the hits. This is great timing as they bring in 35 hits in 3 days to the most hitter-friendly park in the majors. Compare that to only 23 hits in 3 days for the Rockies who’ve dropped another 5 in a row while the Nats have won 4 of 5.

Washington is 7-2 in their last 9 matchups between them and they send out Doug Fister who is 8-2 with a 2.90ER. He’ll be up against the strong divisional pitcher in Franklin Morales who is 5-0 with a 3.09ERA in the NL West but too bad for him that the Nats are tied for first in the NL East. Morales is an awful 0-4, 7.42 against all other divisions and an overall 5-4, 5.26ERA.

Look for the Nats to stay hot as they grab the win over the Rockies this evening.



Chicago White Sox ML (-173)

Risking 1.73 to win 1 unit

8:10pm start

Sale, Guthrie must start

The White Sox and the Royals are familiar foes in the AL Central but these two teams are headed in different directions right out of the break. Chicago is hitting well, putting up 23 hits in 2 days compared to only 9 for Kansas City. The Royals have lost 4 in a row, 6 of 7 and 9 of 12 games while the White Sox are 2-1 and have won 5 of 7 home games.

I wait impatiently every year for Jeremy Guthrie to fall off the rails and this is the time to strike against him once again. He’s 0-2 with an 11.05ERA in 3 starts. His 5-8, 4.56ERA isn’t scaring anyone either. He gave up 8 runs in innings and 14 runs on 19 hits in his last 2.

Chris Sale is the kind of pitcher you feel good putting money on. His steady 8-1, 2.08 ERA can be trusted after 11 days off if you don’t include the inning of work in the All-Star Game. He’s 3-1 at a 2.38ERA in his last 5 starts.
There’s enough urgency for Chicago to pick things up in their division as they’ve gone 1-10 in their last 11 in the AL Central. A game against a struggling team and pitcher should only help their cause. The White Sox have won 22 out of 29 as a favorite and 11 out of 12 Sale starts when favored under -200 and over -150.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

over/under-baseball

Colorado - Washington
under 10.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer Monday Knockout

Pittsburgh

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
Mark Buehrle tripping on the mound with the bases loaded led to a poor inning and the "under" yesterday. The Jays went on to add a bunch of runs, but you never know what would of happened if that inning never happened. Lets go for a bounce back here taking the Braves at home.
2 UNIT = Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves - BRAVES -1.5 (+105)
Listed Pitchers: Koehler vs Teheran
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.10 units)
The Marlins have lost 6 of their last 7 games overall, and during that stretch they've scored more than 3 runs just once. In fact they are averaging just 2.11 runs per game over their last 9 games overall. On the other hand the BRaves have won 5 of their last 7 games and have scored 6+ runs in four of their last give games (averaging 7.2 runs per game during that span). The Marlins have Tom Koehler on the mound who has been good this year, but much better at home than on the road. Away from home he is just 2-4 with a 5.37 ERA, .259 OBA and 1.51 WHIP. Julio Teheran will counter for Atlanta and he is 9-6 with a 2.71 ERA overall this year, but at home hs is a stellar 3-1 with a 1.23 ERA, .177 OBA and 0.80 WHIP. Although he has struggled over his two most recent starts they were both on the road, and over his previous 3 home starts he has allowed a combined 2 earned runs against. Note that Miami is just 2-9 in their last 11 following a win, 1-6 in their last 7 overall, 1-5 in Koehler's last 6 starts and 3-7 in his last 10 road starts. The Braves are 7-2 in their last 9 home games, 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite, 10-4 in their last 14 divisional games, and 8-2 in Teheran's last 10 home starts. The Braves are also 5-0 in Teheran's alst 5 starts vs the Marlins, 43-18 in their last 61 meetings overall with Miami, and 4-0 in their last 4 vs the Marlins when Koehler has been on the mound. I'll take the Braves on the run line here tonight.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox - WHITE SOX -1.5 (+126)
Listed Pitchers: Guthrie vs. Sale
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.52 units)
A frustrating 9th inning loss on Saturday gave way to another loss yesterday. After a monster run it hasn't been smooth sailing since returning from the All-Star break. Need to finish the month up strong heading into the home stretch of the regular season.
Chris Sale makes his first start since making a brief appearance in the All-Star game. He certainly deserved to be in the game as he has been one of the best pitchers the game has had to offer this season. I believe he is one of the most underrated hurlers that you will find in the majors. Forget about trying to score on him at home where that has been non-existent for the opposition. The most Sale has allowed at home has been 3 runs. This will be his second showdown with the Royals, where in his first he shut them down completely, going 8 innings letting up only 4 hits and 0 runs in a 5-1 White Sox victory. He's giving up less than 2 runs per game in Chicago, a 1.97 ERA. Coupled with the fact that Sale has a 0.71 WHIP and .206 OBP at home. Not only that, Sale has been on fire as well. He brings only a 1.52 his last three starts with a 0.80 WHIP and .225 OBP. The Royals have been dreadful at the plate recently, and there are no indications that it is going to change against Sale. Jeremy Guthrie will need to turn things around quickly here. He must do a much better, I repeat that, a MUCH better job for the Royals to have a chance at winning. His performances have been a mess lately, entering with a 10.43 ERA, 2.39 WHIP, and .474 his past three. In other words, Guthrie is the coldest pitcher in the league going up against the hottest. He's also been unreliable in road parks, posting a 4.72 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Look for Sale to look sharp and lead the White Sox to a relatively easy win over the Royals tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks


MONDAY BASEBALL

• Play San Francisco +140 over Philadelphia----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)

7:00 PM EST

Ryan Vogelsong has won 20 of the last 30 games when pitching as a road underdog of +100 to +150 and he has won 27 of the last 42 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Ryan Vogelsong has an ERA of 1.50 vs. Philadelphia over his career and he has an ERA of 3.38 over his last three overall starts.

• Play Cincinnati +120 over Milwaukee----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  8:00 PM EST

Mat Latos has won 8 of the last 9 games after giving up two or more home runs in his last outing and he has won 7 of the last 9 games when pitching on a Monday. Mat Latos has won 24 of the last 35 games when pitching in the 2^nd half of the season and he has an ERA of 0.90 in road games this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks


MONDAY

TOP ARENA FOOTBALL PLAYS---BIG PLAY

• Play Spokane -15 over Tampa Bay---RISK 20% OF YOUR BANKROLL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Atlanta -190 over Miami (MLB TOP PLAY)

Tom Koehler has lost 6 of the last 7 games when pitching on a Monday and he has lost 13 of the last 19 games vs. division opponents.Tom Koehler has lost 9 of the last 12 games when pitching as an underdog of +175 to +250 and he has an ERA of 5.87 over the last three starts.

================================================== ===

50* Play New York Yankees -160 over Texas (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Washington -130 over Colorado (MLB BONUS PLAY)