8-15-14

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Alatex

Oakland -2.5

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Scott Delaney
100* cardinals (mlb)

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Craig Davis
30* chargers

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Chris Jordan
600* Washington r line

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Al Demarco
5 * Washington

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David Banks
AUGUST 15, 2014
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots

Two teams that held joint practices sessions with each other on Tuesday and
Wednesday will square off in their second NFL preseason game of the year
Friday night on NFL Network when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the New England
Patriots at Gillette Stadium at 7:30 ET. The Patriots also held joint
practices with the Washington Redskins before their preseason opener last week,
and that did not end well with the Patriots losing the actual game 23-6. The
Eagles also come off of a loss 34-28 to the Bears in Chicago, and what was
significant about that game was the Philadelphia offensive reserves outplayed
the starters after the Eagles were shut out in the first quarter.

Coach Chip Kelly has intimated this week that he may play his starters into
the second period in Week 2 and that he also plans to work on some
different formations, thus not being as "vanilla" with the play-calling as he was in
the opener. In other words, into the second quarter at least, expect to see
Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy in more or less regular season form in Kelly's
hurry-up offense before the back-ups get summoned and the vanilla schemes of
last week return. And how the Eagles perform in that first quarter and a
half or so could ultimately determine the outcome of this game, although if
the second and third stringers match last week's performance, Philadelphia may
not stop scoring. Also expect to see more of Darren Sproles with the first
team after he did not catch a pass last week, although he did carry the ball
three times for 11 yards. The one setback for Philadelphia is that Jeremy
Maclin, who is expected to take over as the primary receiver this season with
DeSean Jackson departed, is again doubtful with a knee injury. That may not
necessarily be a bad thing though as the Eagles can take a longer look at
their second round draft pick Jordan Matthews who seemed nervous while
dropping three passes in he opener but has excelled in training camp.

As for the Patriots, Tom Brady is expected to make his 2014 debut while
major free agent signee Darrelle Revis is expected to make his New England
debut. The difference though is that the Patriot starters do not figure to play
more than one quarter and maybe even just a couple of series. The Patriots
want to continue to take extended looks at Ryan Mallet, who was terrible in
the opener in what was rumored to be a trade audition, and rookie Jimmy
Garoppolo as that duo is still competing for the back-up quarterback job behind
Brady (assuming Mallet is still with the team). Mallet started last week and
was lousy completing 5-of-12 passes for just 55 yards with several of the
incompletions falling at the feet of his receivers. There have been rumors of
Mallet possibly going to the Houston Texans since before the NFL Draft,
which may have been a reason Houston did not select a quarterback in the draft,
but his opening performance looks like cause for concern.

The Patriots are just 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games as preseason
favorites. NFL preseason Week 2 underdogs coming off of a loss (Eagles) are a
mind-boggling 72-33-2, 68.6 percent ATS since 2000.PICK: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES+3

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Larry Ness

Insider Detroit Tigers

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GOODFELLA

Friday Night MLB Team Total

LA ANGELS – OVER 5.5 RUNS (-105)

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The Shadow Sports Syndicate

MLB: #974 Kansas City

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Chris James Sports

Under Tigers 8.5
Under Cardinals 7
Reds -163

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Diamond Dog sports

#951: Pirates: +135 (2*)
Listed Pitchers: Morton/Roark



#955/956: Diamondbacks/Marlins: Over 7.5 (-110) (.5)
Listed Pitchers: Cahill/Hand


#405: Titans: +3.5 (-115) (.5)



#977/978: Blue Jays/White Sox: Over 8.5 (+100) (3*)
Listed Pitchers: Stroman/Noesi

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VegasButcher

#1: Seattle Mariners +121



The key to this game is Seattle’s starter, James Paxton. In his 4 starts this season he has a 26% K-rate, 4.4 K/BB ratio, and 2.4 ERA. His FIP is at 3.6 due to him allowing 3 HR’s in his 22.2 innings this year but that’s an anomaly as a his GB-rate of 61% is one of the best in the league and I guarantee (it’s a LOCK J ) that his 33% HR/FB ratio will go down as the sample size increases. If Paxton had enough innings to qualify he’d rank as my 7th overall starter. That’s impressive. But what is even more impressive is that he’s gotten these numbers against CHW, BAL, and LAA twice, all top offensive squads. Paxton has a 4-pitch repertoire and I expect him to hold this struggling Detroit lineup off-balance. In the last 30-days Detroit ranks 18th offensively and has a wRC+ of 89. In the same time-span, Mariners have a wRC+ of 90.



Remember that Porcello was needed on 08/10, 3 days after his start on 08/07, to come in and pitch 2 innings of relief in a marathon game against Toronto. He threw 36 pitches in that one. He did have 4-days off prior to today’s start but pitchers tend to prefer a set routine and sometimes a shift from that could have an effect. Porcello will face a lefty-heavy Seattle lineup today. He has a 2.0 K/BB rate with a 4.1 xFIP against lefties, compared to a 5.2 K/BB with 3.3 against right-handers. In addition, he’ll have to face Austin Jackson, who is facing his old ‘mates for the very first time since he was traded. You know he’ll want to play well in this one and who knows, maybe he’ll have some ‘inside info’ to share with the Mariners as well.



Mariners have a huge advantage in the bullpen where they rank 1st overall while Detroit is 26th. Detroit also had Chamberlain pitch in 2 straight days and 4 times in the last 6, Coke pitched yesterday making it his 4th appearance in the last 5, and Detroit’s big move to upgrade the BP (Joakim Soria) is already on the DL. Joe Nathan will be available but his 5.11 ERA and 24 BB’s in 44 inn is a welcome sight. Mariners are 10-3 this year with a day-off, 9-3 in August, and 31-23 on the road. By comparison, Detroit is only 32-27 at home for -8.2 Units and I have them once again overvalued tonight.





#2: Oakland Athletics +118



Hammel gets to face a National League team and I can hear him screaming for joy. He had a 2.98 ERA in the NL and a 5.9 ERA once he joined the AL. Well today he’s going up against an Atlanta team that ranks 26th offensively against righties. Hammel has allowed 1 ER in his last 12 innings and had 7 K’s in that span. The 6 BB’s he’s issued in these 2 games is a concern but he didn’t have an issue dominating Atlanta earlier this year (7 inn / 2 ER / 5 K to 1 BB) so I expect a solid outing from him tonight as well.



As far as Wood is concerned, he’s been sensational lately (3 ER’s in 20 innings), but he won’t be facing an ARZ, or a HOU, or a NYM, or a SEA, or a SD lineup today. He’ll be going up against the 6th best offensive team in the league that will have mostly right-handers in their lineup. Wood is coming off an extremely strong, but also strenuous outing on Sunday night, where he allowed only 1 ER while striking out 12 in 7.1 innings of work. In the process he threw 124 pitches, by far the most he’s thrown in his short MLB career. I wonder how he’s going to respond against the best team in all of baseball. Wood relies on his ‘curveball’ to be effective but the A’s rank top-10 offensively against the pitch. If he can’t properly utilize this ‘curve’, I don’t see his 90 mph fastball being very effective in this one. Wood has a 1.1 HR/9 rate against right-handers (compared to 0.5 for lefties) and there’s only 5 teams in the majors that have hit more homers than the A’s.



Oakland is 23-13 against lefties and 10-2 in inter-league play this year while Atlanta is only 4-10. Braves are also only 3-9 in August and have had a tough time beating ‘better’ teams lately. I like the A’s to get the job done tonight especially since they’re 30-18 after a loss this season.



#3: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 RL -130



When a terrible pitcher like Martinez gets his first win in 3 months, you take notice and see if you can fade him in his next start. Since June, Martinez has an ERA of 7.2, with a 1.9 HR/9 rate, and a 1.0 K/BB ratio. He ranks 168th out of 168 pitchers in my database and his 6.0/5.7/5.7 FxS all rank 168th as well. Now he’ll take on an Angels team that had a day off yesterday, have their best starter on the mound (Richards is #17 overall), have a bullpen that ranks #1 in the last 30-days, and most importantly are featuring a #1 offensive unit in all of baseball. With Angels getting all of their 27 outs tonight they’ll have maximum chances to score runs in this one. And even if Martinez is ‘on’ once again, he typically does not last past the 5th inning so the Angels will be hitting against Rangers’ 24th ranked BP for almost half of this game. Checking on Richards’ current form, over the last 30-days he has had a 4.3 K/BB ratio, 0.3 HR/9, 53% GB-rate, and 2.5/3.1/3.2 FxS. Basically he’s in top-form today and should be able to dominate this 26th ranked Rangers lineup. There are multiple ways that this play can hit, as either Richards dominates this Rangers lineup or LA’s offense goes off (or BOTH of course) and I think this is a very strong RL play tonight.



#4: Minnesota Twins +134



Nolasco is coming off the DL so he should be well rested for this one. He was sharp in his rehab work in the minors compiling 8K’s through 9 innings of work. Royals sometimes hit like a ‘minor league’ team so he could have a good game today. He got shelled @ KC this year (11 hits and 5 ER’s) but managed to hold the Royals to only 2 ER’s on 13 hits in 14 innings (2 starts) at home. Duffy has also pitched well ‘on the surface’ against MIN this year allowing 2 ER’s in 10.1 innings on 8 hits as a starter. He had 6 BB’s in his last outing against the Twins but managed to work around that. Somehow he allowed 4 hits and issued 6 BB’s in 5.2 innings but only allowed 1 ER. In his 15.2 total innings (some were in relief) against the Twins he allowed 8 hits and issued 9 BB’s but only 2 ER’s. In MLB, the average is 36% of base-runners scoring over the course of a season, so his total runs allowed to the Twins should have been over 6 based on 17 base-runners. Clearly he’s been “dodging some bullets”. Will 3rd time be the charm? Duffy didn’t see Mauer in that last outing and he’ll be available today. In addition, Duffy’s 5.0 xFIP for the 2nd half of the season is 3 runs higher than his 2.0 ERA – regression alert! Duffy’s season long ERA of 2.6 is already deflated (4.0/4.6/4.5 FxS with .227 BABIP and 80% strand-rate) but it’s even more deflated just in the 2nd half. So will today be the day when Duffy’s numbers start regressing a bit? Twins rank 9th offensively in the last 30-days and their 125 wRC+ over the last 2 weeks is 2nd in the league (only behind the Orioles’ 135). They are hitting the ball well right now averaging double-digits in hits over the last 6 games. Duffy also had a SIERA of 5.1 and 7.3 in his two starts against Minnesota this season, which is an indication that they’ve hit him hard, just a bit unlucky. At the current price, there’s a lot of value on the home team and I’m going bite. I expect a strong outing from Nolasco and for the Twinkies to plate some runs off Duffy tonight.

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Bets That Profit

2* Diamondbacks/Marlins UNDER 7.5(-115)

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Against the Number

410 Chargers at Seahawks UNDER 38.5

It's not generally advisable to show your hand to your opponent before it REALLY matters. These two teams face off early in the regular season so I don't anticipate much in the way of opening up the play books here. Even in a preseason game, Seattle is a tough place to play and I expect the Seahawks defense to be playing pumped up tonight after the L in Denver last week. The Seahawks offense struggled against Denver but again, I don't think they come out of the gates firing on all cylinders and will let the defense do the work for them. This is a pretty low number but it may even go down a bit more before kickoff. I smell a 17-13 kind of game here and even though it's Seahawks -7, if they cover that I don't think it will be in a high scoring affair.



408 Oakland -2.5

To say that the Lions were sloppy last week would be an understatement. There's just something about that team that can't quite get it together. Also sloppy? The Raiders. Between those two games there was a SERIOUS amount of bad football being played. I do think however that Oakland was playing the far superior defensive squad, on the road, and thus I'm willing to give them a bit more of a pass. Raider fans are just begging for something to be positive about, and like Jags fans were treated to last night, I think they'll get to see their new franchise rookie QB step out some more tonight. Carr should get plenty of work tonight and I think he'll have some success against this questionable Lions team. Moore and Orlovsky were serviceable in moving the ball until it mattered last week, and that was in the friendly confines of Ford Field. Tonight will be a different atmosphere and I think the Lions struggle to get points again. Oakland takes this one 23-16 .

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Brandon Lang

20 DIME MONEY MOVE
Seahawks