11-14-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc CBB:

4 Unit Play. #733 Take Florida Atlantic +2 over Elon (7:30 pm) The Owls have a new coach in Michael Curry as the Mike Jarvis career comes to an end. We expect them to get off on the right foot against a team that is moving up in conference and has to replace 4 of their 5 starters from 2013-2014. This is a complete rebuild for the Phoenix and it will be a struggle early in the season for them. Take the experience in this one.



4 Unit Play. #765 Take VMI -4 over The Citadel (5:30 pm) The Citadel is always amoung the worst teams in college basketball year in and year out. VMI appears to be heading the right direction coming off an impressive 22-13 season and they return one of the top players in the conference in QJ Peterson who averages close to 20 points per game. Expect VMI to put away Bulldogs in the second half and win this game by double digits.



4 Unit Play. #769 Take Boise State -2.5 over San Diego (6:30 pm) The Broncos underachieved in a big way last season after making the NCAA Tournament two years ago. But they still have talent and had some big wins last year and should be able to take out San Diego in a neutral site on Friday. Derrick Marks may not play in this game but it will not matter as the talent greatly favors Boise State. The Toreros made the tournament once early in the Bill Grier era but have not done much since. He is 26 games below .500 in his career at USD and will be no match for Boise State today in Los Angeles.



4 Unit Play. #792 Take Massachusetts -5 over Siena (7 pm) The Saints have not been the same team since Fran McCaffery bolted for Iowa. UMASS is coming off a trip to the NCAA Tournament last season and I expect them to produce another 20 season despite replacing some of the starts from last season. UMASS plays a style of basketball that pressures teams up and down the court and that is very beneficial early in the season and when playing at home. Siena returns all of their experience from last season but they were not good last year and are just a middle of the pack team this season in the MAAC.



4 Unit Play. #812 Take Valparaiso -8 over East Tennessee State (8:30 pm) The Crusaders were in a major rebuild last year and they came away respectable with a winning record and a winning record in conference. Now they should start to see the fruits of their labor as they return 4 starters including Alec Peters. He can score from anywhere on the court and expect him to give the Buccaneers fits all night. ETSU returns to the Southern Conference this season although it is a new looking Southern Conference. The Bucs lost most of their production in the front count and that will be there undoing tonight on the road. With Missouri on deck, this is a game Valpo needs to get and I expect them to get it by double digits. ETSU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 nonconference games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Sports Informer CBB:

3 Unit Play. Take #769 Boise St -2 ½ over San Diego (6:30p.m., Friday, November 14)

3 Unit Play. Take #803 Coll of Charleston -4 over Furman (8:00p.m., Friday, November 14)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy CBB:

7-Unit Play. #723. Take VCU -7.5 over Tennessee (Friday @ 6:30pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo CBB:

NOTE: The books didn't even put a line on the play I was going to use for my 7-Unit Play. I wanted Temple -6.5 over American. It is god damn ridiculous that they wouldn't line this game, as Temple is a name program. They have a line on East Tennessee State-Valparaiso, VMI-Citadel and St. Peters-Brown but not on Temple-American. Ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous. Temple is going to throttle them.

But, fear not: I have a 7-Unit Play lined up for Sunday. I am going to get the number I want in that one and I doubt it will move enough to deter us. I am going to be more aggressive this season than in years past. But I will never put your money at risk just for the sake of having BIG PLAYS. Some handicappers don't care and will absolutely do that. I am not one of them. Let's be patient and judicious.
It's a really strange card today. I have mapped out the next three weeks and this Friday is by far one of the strangest and weakest days in terms of value. But don't worry. There are plenty of juicy spots ahead. We'll be patient and not overdo it just because we're excited that college hoops is back.
4-Unit Play. Take #733 Florida Atlantic (+2.5) over Elon (8 p.m.)
This play fits into my Theory of Conference Relativity. The basic idea is this: Florida Atlantic may be one of the weaker teams in their conference. But their league is so much stronger than Elon's. (Elon is in its first year in the CAA, which is a good league, but their talent is on par with the SoCon, their old league.) And that means that FAU is going to be the much better team going into this one. So it doesn't really make sense that Elon is favored. I get it. Elon is coming off a really nice year. They actually went to the postseason last year, which is huge for this program. But they lost four starters, all seniors, and they are starting from scratch. Florida Atlantic has a little bounce to its step thanks to new coach Michael Curry. He brings his NBA experience and knowledge to Boca Raton and he is a breath of fresh air after the dreadful Mike Jarvis era. FAU is not completely devoid of talent. They have four starters back from last year's team and a two really nice recruits in Maceo Baston II and C.J. Turman. I don't think Elon is going to have a killer home court edge here and I think FAU is good enough to get a true road win right out of the gate. It's a new year and these two teams are going in two different directions.
2-Unit Play. Take #744 Colorado (-14) over Drexel (8 p.m.)
I do respect Bruiser Flint and the Dragons. And they always manage to play opponents tough in that opener. They almost knocked off UCLA on the road in last year's opener and nearly beat Arizona. But I think all of that will get Colorado's attention. I think the Buffs are one of the more underrated teams in the country right now. They aren't even in the Top 30 in the Coaches Poll! I think Colorado is the second-best team in the Pac-12 and this group can play. Forget the fact that they have an advantage over opponents because of the altitude. Colorado is tough at home because they can ball out. Askia Booker is one of my favorite point guards in the country and a three-year starter. He is one of four starters back from last year. Colorado also has a pair of NBA prospects in the frontcourt in Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott. That should dominate Drexel on the inside and the Dragons have had some issues defending the last two seasons. Drexel lost its three best players from last year and they have been a massive disappointment the past two seasons. I think it is going to take a bit for them to figure things out.
3-Unit Play. Take #746 Alabama (-14) over Towson (9 p.m.)
These are two teams with completely different focuses coming into this game. Alabama coach Anthony Grant was one of the most highly sought-after coaches in the country when he came to Alabama. Now he may be coaching for his job after a horrible 2013 and no real forward progress with this program. The Tide had a losing season and they really want to get off to a strong start in this one. Alabama is going to slap its Havoc defense on and I think this one could get ugly. Towson lost its best four players from last year's team and they are starting over completely from scratch. Jerrelle Benimon and Mike Burwell were very experienced seniors and they had the ball in their hands most of the time. Now they are gone and Towson doesn't have any idea who is going to run the show in the backcourt. That is a problem going up against a team like Alabama that presses and plays pressure defense the whole game. Last year's Towson team was excellent and went 25-11. But when they faced Top 100 teams in the nonconference they got smoked. They lost by 34 at Villanova, by 30 at Kansas, by 10 at Stephen F. Austin, by 9 at Oregon State and by 8 at North Dakota State. And that was a really GOOD Towson team. This is not a good Towson team. And tonight will not go well for them.
4-Unit Play. Take #756 Auburn (-10.5) over UW-Milwaukee (10 p.m.)
Bruce Pearl is back. And do you think for one second this guy doesn't want to announce his presence with a blowout win? Pearl's teams press. They press, they trap, and they run. They nearly scored 100 points in their exhibition game. I know that's not always telling because the exhibition opponents vary wildly and usually stink. But if you look at the Auburn roster they have some good, veteran, accomplished players. KT Harrell, Antoine Mason and KC Ross-Miller have all played some big-time ball before coming to Auburn. Tahj Shamsid-Deen is a nice point guard and Cinmeon Bowers is a top JUCO transfer. These guys are athletic and they will love Pearl's style. Milwaukee was a strong team in the Horizon last year. But they actually overachieved is a big way while winning the league's automatic bid. Again, that was a l-o-n-g time ago and this is a completely different team. Milwaukee finished fifth in the Horizon last year before their dream March run. And if you look back they got wrecked by teams like DePaul, Wisconsin and Cleveland State - most of the only good teams they played. Milwaukee lost its veteran point guard and leader Jordan Aaron, they lost their big man Kyle Kelm, and now they are down sophomore scorer Austin Arians to injury. I am a fan of stretch-four Matt Tiby. But he is not good enough to carry this team in this game and he'll be neutralized somewhat by Auburn's running game. I don't need to see the Tigers to buy in. I have seen enough of Pearl and enough of his veteran transfers to know they can ball. This one should be a blowout.
4-Unit Play. Take #844 South Carolina (-11.5) over North Florida (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #856 California (-22.5) over Alcorn State (8 p.m.)
Cal a new coach in Cuonzo Martin and he wants to start this tenure with something impressive. I think that he was a great hire and he will bring the toughness that this program has been sorely lacking. Cal has some really, really good guards, including Tyrone Wallace, Jabari Bird and Jordan Matthews. That will give them a big edge in this one. They aren't very big on the interior. But Alcorn State is not the team to take advantage of that weakness. Alcorn is one of the worst teams in the country. They have some guys back from last year and I don't think they are necessarily going to get run by 30. But over the last two years here are their margins of defeat against teams ranked in the Top 150: 46, 17, 18, 31, 26, 18, and in 2012 it was 37, 18, 2, 38, 17, 16, 12, 15, 13 and 19. I know those scores are qualified because you don't know the teams who they came against. But the fact is pretty clear: they haven't played top-half teams close really at all. One time in their last 16 chances they have played a team to less than a double-digit loss. I think Cal is motivated here and I think they are the vastly superior team. They will get the job done.
2-Unit Play. Take #810 Texas (-18) over North Dakota State (8:30 p.m.)
I was going to go big on this game if the spread had stayed even close to its open of 14.0. We're not that lucky. But either Texas is going to win this game by 25 points or they aren't. It is really up to Texas. North Dakota State was a really good team last year. Last year. They lost their three best players, who were all three-year starters, and lost one of the best players in school history in Taylor Braun. Oh, and those three guys they lost were three of their biggest dudes. That's going to be a problem today going up against the simply massive Texas front line. The Longhorns are experienced and they are motivated. And if you look back at Rick Barnes' best teams they have opened the season with some serious routs. That is exactly what I think happens here.
2-Unit Play. Take #857 Northern Kentucky (+29) over Wisconsin (9 p.m.)
This is the quintessential play to show that it is a whole new season. The last time we saw Wisconsin they were taking Kentucky to the wire in the Final Four. Here we are seven months later and they are nearly a 30-point favorite to a bunch of Atlantic Sun scrubs. Needless to say, I think there will be a bit of a Final Four hangover. Over the last six years Final Four teams have gone 8-16 ATS in their first lined games of the season the next year. And if you go back and look how Final Four teams do at the window the following November the numbers are all very much against them. The reason is simple: the public still looks at the teams as the same groups that they made a killing with last March. The books jack up the spreads against these teams and the motivation just is not there to get ahead of them. I think that will be exactly the case with the Badgers. Last August the Badgers were able to take a trip to Canada in August for four exhibition games. That essentially gave them a running start on the season and they took full advantage. They were a machine last November and December and were just wrecking people. Wisconsin doesn't have that advantage this year. So while their numbers are inflated their play should show some regression.
Northern Kentucky is not as bad as they seem. They have five returning starters and they gained back a 2012 starter, Chad Jackson, who sat out last year. The Norse nearly won outright as a 20-point underdog at Purdue to open the season, losing 77-76. After that near-miss they ?only? lost to Kentucky by 30. Why do I say ?only?? First, that's essentially what the books are saying Wisconsin is going to do here. Second, they were replacing four starters at this time last year and now they are very experienced. Third, that was Kentucky, who was MASSIVE. Northern Kentucky doesn't have anyone taller than 6-7 on the roster so it makes sense that a physically bigger team would dominate them like that. Wisconsin is not that type of team. The Badgers are more of a finesse team. They want to bang 3-pointers. Their tallest player is 7-foot-tall Frank Kaminsky and he is more of a perimeter player. So they shouldn't really throttle UNK on the inside. Northern Kentucky also played at North Carolina last year and they only lost that game by 15. So last season a worse version of this the Norse played three upper-tier teams and lost by 1, 30 and 15. (Also, the year prior they played Ohio State - the year Ohio State went to the Elite Eight - and lost by 27.) I think they can hang around in this one so I will take the points.
1-Unit Play. Take #731 Georgia (+2) over Georgia Tech (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #736 Iowa State (-20) over Oakland (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #740 Kansas (-15) over UC-Santa Barbara (8 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. Take #749 Washington State (+10.5) over UTEP (10 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #753 CS-Northridge (+17) over San Diego State (10 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #760 Santa Clara (-8.5) over Cal-Fullerton (10 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #765 VMI (-4) over Citadel (5:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #786 Pittsburgh (-25) over Niagara (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #801 St. Peter's (+4.5) over Brown (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #812 Valparaiso (-8.5) over East Tennessee State (8:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #819 Morehead State (+6.5) over UNLV (10:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #821 Idaho State (+19.5) over New Mexico (10 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #825 Wofford (+10) over Stanford (11:59 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. Take #848 Indiana (-26) over Miss Valley State (7 p.m.)
COLLEGE BASKETBALL FUTURES SELECTIONS
7-Unit Play. Take Kentucky (-300) TO WIN SEC
Note: This line is available at The Greek. Some books are taking college futures and some aren't. You may have to nose around a bit to find numbers.
I understand that there is absolutely nothing creative about this wager. But I can tell you that if any book is dumb enough to take this bet then you should hit it for the max amount. I mean, this is as easy as it gets. If the books were smart they would've either offered an either-or wager (Kentucky vs. The Field) or they would've put a spread on the Wildcats winning the SEC (I would've said -2.5 games).
If Kentucky isn't the best team in the country they are certainly in the Top 5. And I don't know that any other team in this league is even in the Top 20. Florida is really the only competition for the SEC title. And all the Gators lost was everyone.They lost four starters from last year's team, which was one of the oldest and most experienced in the country. You just can't automatically replace a guy like Scottie Wilbekin or Patric Young, who formed the foundation of last year's 36-win team. Florida is still going to be pretty good. Michael Frazier and Eli Carter will be a nice backcourt and Kasey Hill has the potential to double his scoring output from 5.5 per game to 11 per game. There are also four Top 100 freshmen coming in that should all play a role. Mix in Dorian Finney-Smith and transfer Jon Horford and you have the skeleton of something decent. And Billy Donovan is a good enough coach that he'll get these guys going. But the bottom line is that these guys haven't played together. There is no chemistry or cohesion here. They are going to be kind of a mess until everyone figures out how to play together. And by that time Kentucky will be long gone from their reach. Florida has a more difficult league schedule than Kentucky and the Gators have some tricky road contests. I think they will end up losing at least three SEC games - and that is giving them a win over Kentucky, which I actually don't think they'll get - and that's just not going to be good enough.
Kentucky won't lose more than one SEC game. They aren't going to lose at home. In fact, Arkansas and Florida are the only two teams capable of staying within six points of them in Rupp. And the only potential losses on the road schedule are games at Alabama, Florida and LSU and I expect the Wildcats to be favored in all three of those contests. Kentucky is just loaded. They probably have six guys on their team that will be in the NBA within the next two years. And they are huge. I mean HUGE. It is men against boys when UK plays, as they have four guys - FOUR - that are 6-10 or larger. And we're not talking stiffs. We're talking McDonald's All-Americans. They also have a AA freshman point guard that will be joining last year's starting backcourt, the Harrison twins. So they have guards. They have wings. They have huge post players. They have a coach just itching for another title. They have some experience. And they have the benefit of playing in by far the worst of the Power Six conferences going in their favor.
The SEC is bad. It is just a bad conference and that is a big part of the reason why Kentucky and Florida dominate it so much. If you don't believe me, just look at this year's odds to win the league, via The Greek:
Alabama +2000
Arkansas +500
Auburn +5000
Florida +250
Georgia +800
Kentucky -300
LSU +800
Mississippi State +5000
Missouri +1000
Ole Miss +1800
South Carolina +1500
Tennessee +5000
Texas A&M +3000
Vanderbilt +1200
That is a pile of $#&* right there! Besides Florida the top contenders that Kentucky has to "worry" about are Arkansas (6-32 on the road the past four years), LSU (lost four of its top six scorers this year its best three players are two sophomores and a freshmen - all forwards), and Georgia (are you kidding me?). I mean, that is an absolute joke. I wouldn't be surprise if two of those teams - again, these are supposed to be the best teams in the conference - don't even make the NCAA Tournament.
Like I said, there is nothing fancy about this bet. But I"m not playing for style points. I'm playing for money. And if any sportsbook is dumb enough to post odds on winning the SEC (and a lot of books have them) then it is our absolute duty to make them pay out the maximum possible amount. This is as easy as money gets right here. Play Kentucky to win the SEC and watch as they end up winning it by three games.
As an aside, I would also recommend putting $500 down on Georgetown (+200) to win the Big East and $500 on Villanova (+175) to win the Big East. Those are the only two teams capable of winning that conference.
I don't like the overall value in the other conferences. But I like Arizona to win the Pac-12 over Colorado by a couple games. I would bet Louisville (+250) AND North Carolina (+250) to win the ACC rather than going with Duke. I like Wisconsin (+175) to win the Big Ten but that can be a weird conference in regards to division winners. And any bet on any team other than Kansas (-250) to win the Big 12 is just stupidity.
But at the end of the day Kentucky is as closed to a sure thing as it gets so that's why I went with them even though the odds for some of those other bets could pay out more.
Carpe diem. Good luck.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob :

I don't anticipate any more Best Bets. I have a couple of Strong Opinions listed below and the analysis of those is at the bottom of the email. I may add some more Strong Opinions as I work on my Free Analysis tonight.

Best Bets
(313) **Southern Miss (+8) 2-Stars at +7 or more (Thursday)
(336) ***Tennessee (-7 at -115) 3-Stars at -9 ½ or less, 2-Stars at -10, 1-Star at -11
(352) **Arkansas State (-13 ½) 2-Star at -14 or less only
(370) **Florida (-6 ½) 2-Stars at -7 or less only
(372) ***Miami-Florida (+3 at -120) 3-Stars at -1 or better
(387-388) **UNDER (57) Missouri at Texas A&M 2-Stars Under 55 or higher
(396) ***Alabama (-7 at -115) 3-Stars at -9 ½ or less, 2-Stars at -10
(395-396) *OVER (52) Miss State at Alabama 1-Star Over 54 or less


Strong Opinions (so far)
(321-322) Strong Opinion – UNDER (46 ½) Wake Forest at NC State Under 45 or higher
(344) Strong Opinion – Air Force (-2 ½) Strong Opinion at -3 or less
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob



Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
**Southern Miss (+8) 24 UTSA 23

Thu Nov-13-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 313 Over/Under 46.0

UTSA was supposed to challenge for the CUSA title this season but the defensive solid Roadrunners (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) have been let down by a horrible offense that has averaged only 16.9 points on 283 yards at 4.3 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Southern Miss was expected to be bad, as they are, but the Eagles are actually not as bad as UTSA is and should not be getting as many points as they are. The Southern Miss offense is actually not so bad, as the Eagles have been just 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack) and that unit is a bit better at 0.3 yppl worse than average with starting quarterback Nick Mullens expected back tonight after missing nearly 3 games. While UTSA’s defense is 0.3 yppl better than the Southern Miss offense the match up works well for the pass-heavy Eagles’ attack, as UTSA’s defensive strength is defending the run (0.6 yprp better than average) while the Roadrunners are 0.8 yards per pass play worse than average (6.2 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.4 yppp against an average team). Southern Miss averages 43 pass plays per game, so they’ll take advantage of UTSA’s defensive weakness while avoiding running into the strength of the defense. My math model takes those matchups into account and projects 396 yards at 5.4 yards per play for the Eagles tonight.

The Southern Miss defense is why the Eagles are a bad team, as that unit has surrendered 36.8 points per game on 454 yards at 6.7 yppl while facing teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense. However, the UTSA offense is considerably worse, as the Roadrunners are 1.6 yppl worse than average (details above). UTSA is 0.3 yppl worse with Austin Robinson at quarterback and the Roadrunners have not been able to take advantage of really bad defensive teams, as they scored an average of just 4.5 points (not a typo) against New Mexico and UTEP, the two worst defensive teams that they’ve faced this season. Robinson was the quarterback when the Roadrunners were shutout as a 14 point home favorite against UTEP a few weeks ago and they scored just 7 points in their subsequent game at Rice last Saturday with Robinson and Carter splitting quarterback duties. Robinson has been named the starter tonight and my math model projects just 313 yards at 4.8 yppl for the Roadrunners in this game.

Southern Miss is clearly as better team from the line of scrimmage, as the Eagles rate at 1.3 yppl worse than average while UTSA is 1.6 yppl worse than average overall (-1.9 yppl with Robinson at quarterback) and Southern Miss is also projected to run more plays from scrimmage. UTSA has a 1.7 points edge in special teams and a 1.7 points edge in projected turnovers but Southern Miss is still the better overall team and the Eagles have a favorable matchup with their pass-heavy offense going up against a UTSA defense that is much worse defending the pass than they are defending the run. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 1-Star down to +6 points.
**FLORIDA (-6 ½) 38 South Carolina 24

Sat Nov-15-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 370 Over/Under 58.5

Florida has regained their swagger a bit with their 38-20 beat down of rival Georgia and their subsequent 34-10 win at Vanderbilt last week. The suddenly enthusiastic Gators should continue their recent run of success with a win over the staggering Gamecocks, who have lost 4 out of their last 5 games. A bye week could restore a bit of energy to the team but a bye week is not going to solve South Carolina’s lack of talent on defense, a unit that has allowed 6.6 yards per rushing play and 7.1 yards per pass play to FBS opponents. The Gamecocks’ defense has allowed an atrocious 6.8 yards per play or more in 7 of their 8 games against FBS foes, including Vanderbilt and Tennessee, who are not known for their offense. Florida is not known for their offense either but the Gators’ attack has improved with Treon Harris as the starting quarterback the last two games. Florida’s offense is just average based on season stats (adjusted for opposing defenses) but the Gators have averaged 6.6 yards per play in two games with Harris at quarterback against Georgia and Vanderbilt defensive units that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. I do not that the Florida is actually 1.3 yppl better than average, as they 7.2 yppl they gained against Georgia is likely a case of variance, as the Bulldogs were not ready for the Gators’ game plan in Harris’ first start, but Florida was 0.3 yppl better than average last week against Vanderbilt and I actually rate that unit at 0.3 yppl better than average heading into this game, which is a 0.3 yppl upgrade over their season rating. South Carolina’s defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average and my math model projects 477 yards at 7.0 yppl for the Gators in this game with a projection of over 300 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per run.

While Florida is controlling the ball with their rushing attack the Gators’ solid defense, which is 0.9 yppl better than average, should slow down a very good Gamecocks’ attack that is 1.2 yppl better than average. South Carolina’s offense does have a 0.3 yppl advantage (although not as much on the road) and my math model projects 400 total yards at 5.8 yppl for the Gamecocks in this game. Florida’s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is 0.8 yppl and the math projects a 77 yards edge from the line of scrimmage while the Gators have a 2.5 points advantage in special teams and a 2.5 points advantage in projected turnovers. This should be a double-digit win by the Gators and my math model gives Florida a very profitable 58.2% chance of covering at -6 ½ points and a still very profitable 55.9% at -7 points (based on the historical performance of my model). I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (Strong Opinion at higher than -7).
**ARKANSAS STATE (-13 ½) 40 Appalachian State 19

Sat Nov-15-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 352 Over/Under 65.0

Appalachian State is a bit of a bully that beats up on bad teams but doesn’t compete well against better teams. The Mountaineers have wins of 66-0 over Campbell (a team that is about 50 points worse than an average FBS team), a 53-14 win over Troy and a 44-0 win over Georgia State but they’ve also lost at home to Liberty by giving up 55 points and have been beaten by 38 points at Michigan, by 20 points at Georgia Southern, and by 26 points at home by South Alabama. Arkansas State is actually the best team that Appalachian State will face this season and the Mountaineers’ 3 game winning streak (all against bad teams of course) should come to an ugly end today. In fact, that winning streak sets up Appalachian State in a very rare 2-41 ATS letdown situation that has only occurred one other time this season (a 27 point loss by North Carolina at Miami that I cashed in on). Arkansas State, meanwhile, is 7-2 ATS and the Red Wolves have made a habit of dominating bad teams (they’re a bully too) with an average margin of victory of 26.8 points in 5 games as a favorite of more than 7 points with an average line of -12 points in those games. This game is not so much about line value, although my math model does give Arkansas State a 53.5% chance of covering at -14 points based solely on the math, but rather than 41-2 ATS situation going against Appalachian State and a 155-61-2 ATS home momentum situation that applies to Arkansas State. I’ll take Arkansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less (a Strong Opinion at more than -14).
***ALABAMA (-7 at -115) 38 Mississippi State 21

Sat Nov-15-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 396 Over/Under 52.0

*OVER (52)
I’m guessing the line on this game has raised some eyebrows among fans. How can an unbeaten and #1 ranked team be such a big underdog? Surely, taking an unbeaten and top ranked team getting a touchdown or more must be a good bet, isn’t it? In the immortal words of coach Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend.” Unbeaten teams, 7-0 or better, are just 4-22 ATS as conference road underdogs if they played the previous week and are facing a team that is not also unbeaten and is coming off a win (it’s 1-1 if home team is off a loss). Teams in that situation have not covered the spread since Alabama covered as a 14 point dog against Peyton Manning and Tennessee back in 1996. Since then it’s 0-12 ATS and I’m sure a lot of those unbeaten dogs were higher ranked than their less than perfect host. By the way, underdogs from 2 ½ to 13 ½ points in that situation are 0-17 ATS since 1993. That’s not the reason I like Alabama here. In fact, I only just looked up how unbeaten road dogs do out of curiosity as I was set to write up this game, which is days after I released Alabama to my subscribers.

I like Alabama here because they’re the best team in the nation and will have a chip on their shoulder facing a team ranked ahead of them. It’s not that Mississippi State is not a very good team, because they are. They’re just not nearly as good as Alabama is and the Bulldogs are not even the best team in their own state (I have Ole’ Miss rated a bit higher). Mississippi State is good because they have a very balanced and potent offense that has averaged 7.2 yards per play when starting quarterback Dak Prescott is in the game (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack). The Miss State defense, however, has allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team, although I do rate that unit at 0.5 yppl better than average after adjusting for the variance in giving up 7.1 yards per play to UAB in week 2. That unit simply isn’t good enough to count the Bulldogs among the elite teams and Alabama’s offense should thrive in this game.

The Crimson Tide attack has averaged 6.8 yppl with quarterback Blake Sims in the game (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), which is just 0.1 yppl worse than the Mississippi State offense. Of course, Alabama more than makes up for that very slight disadvantage with a defense that’s yielded just 4.4 yppl to a schedule of mostly good offensive teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average stop unit. That’s a difference of 1.0 yppl between the two defensive units and is the main reason why Alabama is the superior team. I also took note of the fact that Dak Prescott seems to play relatively better against better defensive teams and a regression equation projecting his passing as a function of the level of the opposing pass defense reveals a Prescott would play 0.4 yards per pass play better, on a relative basis, against a team as good as Alabama is in pass defense, which adds a bit to the Bulldogs’ offensive projection in this game.

The math model, even with a positive adjustment for Prescott playing relatively better against good defensive teams, projects Mississippi State to gain 375 yards at 5.8 yards per play, which would mark the first time since week 1 against West Virginia that Bama would allow more than 4.8 yards per play. However, Alabama’s efficient attack is projected to gain 559 yards at 7.1 yards per play against Mississippi State defense that rates about the same as the average defensive that the Crimson Tide have faced this season. Alabama is projected to average more yards than they average because the Tide are expected to have one more possession than they normally do because of Mississippi State’s faster than average tempo on offense, which means more possessions for both teams. Basically, Alabama’s offense should move the ball as well as they normally do and top their 35 point average while Mississippi State should be slowed by an elite Alabama defense. Overall the math favors Alabama by 16 ½ points in this game and projects a lot more points than expected by the odds makers, which have the total at 52 points (as of Friday morning). If Mississippi State covers the spread it’s because they score more points than expected so the Over works as a nice hedge in addition to being a good bet. I can’t lose Alabama and the Over as long as the Tide score 31 points or more and they’ve scored 33 points or more in 6 of 9 games with 2 of the 3 games in which they didn’t score 33 points coming against elite defensive teams Ole’ Miss and LSU (the other was Arkansas). Mississippi State is far from an elite defensive team and as I mentioned earlier the Bulldogs’ defensive rating is the same as the average rating of Alabama’s opponents. It’s very likely that Bama scores more than 30 points and wins by double-digits. I’ll take Alabama in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 and I’ll take the Over (52) in a 1-Star Best Bet at 54 points or less.
***TENNESSEE (-7 at -115) 36 Kentucky 18

Sat Nov-15-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 336 Over/Under 54.0

My math model would favor Tennessee by 11 ½ points in this game even without factoring in how much better the Volunteers’ offense is with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. Dobbs replaced backup Nathan Peterman after a couple of series a few week ago against Alabama and was impressive in leading the Vols back from a 0-20 1st quarterback hole to a respectable 20-34 loss while posting solid stats against an elite Alabama defense (he averaged 5.5 yards per pass play and tallied 84 yards on 18 runs). I took Tennessee as a Best Bet as a dog at South Carolina and Dobbs led the Vols to a 45-42 overtime win with 7.5 yards per pass play and 166 rushing yards on 24 runs against a sub-par South Carolina defense. Dobbs was 3rd on the depth chart coming into this season perhaps partially based on what was considered poor play in 4 starts at the end of last season but he actually wasn’t bad at all last year, as he averaged 5.6 yards per play (passing and running combined) while facing a slate of good defensive teams that would allow just 5.3 yards per play to an average team. Dobbs’ passing numbers were 0.6 yards per pass play below average but he ran for 259 yards on 31 runs to make up for it. Dobbs still hasn’t established himself as a great passer, although he’s been 1.0 yppp better than average in two games this season (6.6 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB), but his career rating on 201 pass plays is average (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp) and that’s an upgrade from the team rating of -0.4 yppp and over former starter Justin Worley (-0.5 yppp). Dobbs’ running is what really adds to the offense, as he’s run for 250 yards at 6.0 yards per rushing play in two games this season and has averaged 7.0 yprp in his career. The Tennessee running backs also become more effective running the read option with Dobbs since opposing defenses can no longer only focus on the backs with Dobbs to worry about. Kentucky can’t stop a good team, as the Wildcats have allowed an average of 301 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per rushing play to the 5 better than average running teams they’ve faced this season (Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Miss State, and Georgia). Overall Kentucky’s run defense has been 0.4 yprp worse than average but they’ve been 0.7 yprp worse than average against good running teams and Tennessee’s read option attack with Dobbs should move the ball on the ground with consistency in this game (6.2 yprp projected) while I project Dobbs to average a decent 6.0 yards per pass play using his career rating, which is lower than his pass rating in two games this season, but likely more accurate.

While the Tennessee offense is better with Dobbs at quarterback the Vols’ defense is underrated. Tennessee’s defensive numbers are a bit better than average at 25.0 points and 376 yards per game allowed at 5.5 yppl but those numbers become very good when you consider that the opposing offenses that they’ve faced would combine to average 35.3 points and 448 yards per game at 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Tennessee’s defensive numbers have also been skewed by allowing big passing numbers to elite offensive teams Oklahoma, Alabama and South Carolina, who combined for 9.5 yards per pass play against the Vols. However, Tennessee has yielded 5.1 yppp or less in their other 6 games, including games against Ole’ Miss and Georgia and they’ll surely be able to shut down a sub-par Kentucky pass attack that’s averaged only 5.3 yppp this season (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average team). The Wildcats do have a slightly better than average rushing attack (5.0 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp) but Tennessee’s run defense is better (5.0 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yprp against an average team) and the ‘Cats are projected to run for just 4.7 yprp and throw for only 4.4 yppp in this game. That won’t be enough to keep up with a Tennessee attack that should have an easy time moving the chains with their effective ground attack and solid passing. Overall, the math projects 481 yards at 6.1 yppl for Tennessee and just 318 yards at 4.6 yppl for Kentucky, which is likely to produce a double-digit win. The fact that my math model favored Tennessee by 11 ½ points before adjusting for Dobbs at quarterback is comforting and I’ll take Tennessee in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ or less, for 2-Stars at -10 and for 1-Star up to -11 points.
**UNDER (57) – Missouri (+4) 24 TEXAS A&M 23

Sat Nov-15-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 387 Over/Under 59.0

The only game Missouri has gone Over the total in since week 2 was that random over against Florida in which the Gators had 4 return touchdowns and I don’t see the Tigers’ under trend ending today. The Tigers’ defense has allowed 4.4 yards per play or less in all 5 of their SEC games, including against very good offensive teams South Carolina and Georgia. Texas A&M has been a good offensive team overall this season because of some great performances early in the season and the Aggies were surprisingly good on offense last week with backup Kyle Allen at quarterback, but the Aggies have been held to an average of just 22.6 points and 5.1 yards per play in their last 5 games and Allen, while good last week, has averaged only 6.2 yards on 100 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and I don’t expect him to have success against a very good Missouri pass defense that’s yielded just 4.8 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defensive team. The Tigers also stuff the run, allowing just 4.4 yards per rushing play despite facing teams that would average 5.7 yprp against an average team. Not only has A&M’s offense not been as good lately but the Aggies have also run their attack at a slower pace with Allen at quarterback the last two weeks, choosing to run less no huddle while running the ball more often. Texas A&M has averaged 2.73 plays per minute for the season but they’ve only run 2.41 plays per minute in the two games Allen has started at quarterback. I assumed a play per minute in between those two numbers and my math model projects only 391 yards at 4.9 yppl for the Aggies in this game.

The Missouri offense has completely disappeared since starting the season with promise. The Tigers were average offensively in their first 4 games against week defensive teams, averaging 6.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team, but the Tigers have averaged just 4.2 yppl in 5 games against SEC teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. The Tigers haven’t even played good SEC defenses, aside from Florida, who they averaged only 2.5 yppl against (but scored 28 points on returns) and they scored an average only 21.7 points against the mediocre and worse than average SEC defensive units of South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. Texas A&M’s defense looks bad statistically, as the Aggies have allowed 447 yards at 6.1 yards per play but they’ve also faced a schedule of mostly good offensive teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. The A&M defense has actually done a good job against the 3 worse than average offensive teams that they’ve faced, allowing an average of just 10.7 points to Rice, SMU, and UL Monroe. Missouri’s attack isn’t as bad as that of SMU and UL Monroe, but Rice actually has a better offense than Missouri and managed just 10 points against the Aggies. My math model uses all of Missouri’s games rather than just their bad offensive games in SEC play but still projects only 326 yards at 4.9 yppl for the Tigers in this game.

Overall the math model favors Texas A&M by just 1 ½ points with a total of 46.2 points and the odds makers continue to put too high of a total of Missouri games, which is why they’ve gone under 6 of 7 times since week 3 (and should have gone under in all 7). Texas A&M is not as good offensively with Allen at quarterback and this game would be projected to go well under the total even if he was as good as former starter Kenny Hill. A&M has only faced two defensive teams in Missouri’s class (Ole’ Miss and Alabama) and they were held to an average of 10 points in those games, so I don’t see Allen or Hill if he plays, having a lot of success. Missouri hasn’t had a good offensive game since September, so it’s doubtful either team will top the national average of 27.7 points. I’ll go UNDER 55 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and I’ll call for the mini upset since A&M applies to a negative 46-109-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s huge upset win at Auburn.
***MIAMI-FLORIDA (+3 at -120) 37 Florida State 27

Sat Nov-15-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 372 Over/Under 62.0

I’ve been anticipating this game for some time and while I’ve made a good profit the last month backing Miami in blowout wins over Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and North Carolina but I actually wish they hadn’t been so impressive since we would have gotten more points than we are. The casual fan might wonder how the #3 team in the nation would be only a 2 ½ or 3 point favorite against an unranked team but public perception is the only reason that Florida State is favored at all as the odds makers surely know that Miami is the better team.

Miami opened the season with a 13-31 loss at Louisville with a freshman quarterback that wasn’t quite prepared at the time given that he was slotted as the 3rd or 4th string quarterback. An injury to the Hurricanes’ starting quarterback and a suspension of backup Olsen put frosh Brad Kaaya at the controls in that opener against a dominating defense with a limited and conservative playbook that hindered Kaaya’s chances to succeed. After a 41-7 win over lowly Florida A&M the coaching staff finally took off the training wheels and expanded the playbook by allowing Kaaya to throw downfield more, which also allowed the rushing attack to blossom since opposing defenses could no longer simply concentrate on stopping the running of stud Duke Johnson and the other gifted Miami running backs. For the season Miami has averaged 7.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack and that attack has been 2.0 yards per play better than average since week 3 (7.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) with Kaaya averaging 8.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and Duke Johnson and company averaging 234 yards at 6.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp to an average team). I have plenty of respect for Florida State’s offense but the Seminoles’ defense is barely better than average, having allowed 5.3 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Miami should have little trouble moving the ball I this game and my math model projects 464 yards at 7.4 yppl for the Canes in this game.

While Miami moving the ball well is highly likely the real battle will be between Jameis Winston and the Miami defense, which is vastly underrated. Miami has allowed just 4.8 yards per play this season to a collection of FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. Florida State’s offense has been 1.5 yppl better than average with Winston at quarterback (he missed the Clemson game) and I was impressive by how the Seminoles’ offense stepped up their level of play in the 2nd half of their come from behind win at Louisville against a very good Cardinals’ defense. Florida State does have a 0.3 yppl advantage over Miami’s defense and my math model projects 408 total yards at 5.8 yppl for the Seminoles in this game, but it occurred to me that perhaps Winston is actually relatively better against better defensive teams. I ran a regression of Winston’s yards per pass play number in each game as a function of the strength of the opposing pass defense. The slope of that equation is just 0.18, which means that for every yard per pass play better the opposing defense is Winston has been only 0.18 yppp worse. So, there has been very little correlation this season between the strength of opposing defense and Winston’s performance, although that equation was skewed a lot by the good performance against the only really good pass defense he faced. With that being the case I decided to include last year and the slope of the equation including last year’s games is 0.64, which still means that he’s relatively better against good defensive teams. There is enough evidence with 671 pass plays over 2 years that Winston is likely to perform better than my math would project against a good pass defense (and worse than projected against a bad pass defense) and I applied that to my math projection on this game. The result is that Winston would play 0.63 yppp better than projected, which equates to 2.7 points. However, even with the assumption that Winston will continue his pattern of playing relatively better against good defensive teams I still only project 434 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Seminoles in this game, which is well below the projection of 464 yards at 7.4 yppl for Miami’s potent offense against Florida State’s mediocre defense.

Miami is not only clearly the better team but the Hurricanes apply to a very good 72-22-3 ATS home dog revenge off a bye angle while unbeaten teams (7-0 or better) with less than dominating defensive units are at risk of an upset on the road. In fact, 7-0 or better teams are just 11-36-1 ATS on the road with no revenge if they allow 13 points or more per game on defense and are facing a team on a winning streak (2 or more games). Last year, it was Baylor -9 ½ losing 17-49 at Oklahoma State. In 2011 it was Oklahoma State -27 losing 31-37 at Iowa State. Not only do those unbeaten teams not cover but they have a losing record straight up. Florida State has a great offense that may well indeed rise to the occasion against a good Miami defense but the Seminoles’ defense is not likely to have success defending a well-balanced and potent Hurricanes attack and a win by Miami would not be an upset at all. In fact, I’d be surprised if Florida State has a chance to win late in the 4th quarter (assuming they don’t get lucky with turnovers). I should be making this a 4-Star Best Bet based on the combination of line value and the supporting situations but I’ll play it a bit conservatively and I’ll take Miami-Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars up to -2 ½ points.


Strong Opinion – AIR FORCE (-2 ½) 28 Nevada 20
Both of these teams have been playing well lately, with Nevada winning and covering the spread in each of their last 3 games and Air Force winning their last 3 and covering in their previous 2 games. I expect Air Force to continue their steak, as the Falcons apply to a 165-73-2 ATS home momentum situation while Nevada applies to a negative 29-72 ATS road letdown situation that is based on the recent success of the Wolf Pack. My math model favors Air Force by 3 ½ points, so the line is more than fair, and the technical analysis is enough for me to consider Air Force a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.

Strong Opinion – UNDER (46 ½): NC STATE (-17) 27 Wake Forest 11
Wake Forest managed to score 20 points on just 133 total yards against Clemson last week to go over the total for just the second time all season but assuming there will not be a repeat of randomness I expect the Demon Deacons’ strong under trend to continue (6-1 UNDER prior to last week). NC State has also gone under the total a lot recently (4 of 5), as their attack has stalled (just 15.8 points per game in their last 5 games after averaging 40 points through 4 games). NC State is now just average offensively for the season (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and Wake Forest has a slightly better than average defense that’s allowed just 5.3 yppl and 25.7 points per game against teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. I would expect NC State to score around the national average of 27 points in regulation. The Wake Forest offense is the worst of any FBS team, as the Demon Deacons have averaged only 3.3 yards per play against a schedule of average defensive teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. NC State looks like a bad defensive team based on their 424 yards at 6.0 yards per play allowed but the Wolfpack are actually slightly better than average defensively since they’ve faced a schedule of mostly good offensive teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl. Wake Forest is projected to gain just 199 total yard at 3.0 yppl in this game and they aren’t likely to have too many scoring chances. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 45 points or higher.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trusted Picks CBB

1* VCU/Tennessee OVER 139.5
2*VCU 1st half -4

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

Friday’s College Basketball Plays

3-Unit Play. #769 Take Boise State (-2.5) over San Diego (6:30 p.m., Friday, November 14)

All things considered, I still think this is a modest number to be laying on a superior Boise State team. This game is being played in Los Angeles, so it’s a neutral court game against San Diego, and I see the Mountain West Broncos taking care of business before facing a much more ‘away friendly’ crowd when they match-up against Loyola Marymount. Boise State is a veteran-laden team and have the overall skill to shoot past the Torreros.

3-Unit Play. #731 Take Georgia (+2.5) over Georgia Tech (7 p.m., Friday, November 14)

Georgia is the better team. They have three quality weapons in starting backcourt Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines as well as senior forward Marcus Thornton. That trio averaged 35 combined points per game, which far outweighs Georgia Tech’s lone proven hooper in Marcus Georges-Hunt. The Yellow Jackets now must begin this year minus five of their top six scorers from 2013. We go with the Dawgs here in an early meeting between these two in-state rivals. Georgia has three starters back from a 20-win team last season. Georgia Tech finished the year with a losing record. Give me the Bulldogs over Tech in this one.

7-Unit Play. #733 Take Florida Atlantic (+2) over Elon (8 p.m., Friday, November 14)

The wrong team is favored here. The fact that this line has essentially been cut in half from where it originally opened is a pretty good indication in favor of the underdog. Florida Atlantic proves it by winning this game outright. The Owls return four starters and are looking for a fresh start toward a new campaign behind former NBA player and new head coach Michael Curry. Along with his main assistant coach Eric Snow, that’s a lot of professional pedigree to help create a positive, winning environment, and for that I see FAU doing a lot better than most are expecting from them this season. For Elon, it’s a total transition year. The Phoenix not only jumped the SoCon to join the CAA for their opening season in a new league, but Elon also must deal with losing four of the last season’s leaders in points, rebounds and minutes. These two schools are going in opposite directions to begin the new season. This is actually the third meeting in the past three years. Elon won the previous two, including last year’s version in Boca Raton. Well, this time around the shoe is on the other foot, and by that I mean that FAU is finally in a position to win as the superior team. Florida Atlantic is the better team from the better conference. I simply think this line is wrong. We back the underdog to come through with a win plus the points.

3-Unit Play. #784 Take Marshall (-4.5) over Jacksonville State (7 p.m., Friday, November 14)

Here is another play backing a team behind new coaching leadership. Marshall welcomes former Lakers assistant Dan D’Antoni to hlpe make strides in Huntington. That should be helped by four key players who made at least 14 starts in 2013. Jacksonville State was one of the country’s worst shooting teams from last season. They won just ten games. I think this is a modest number to lay with the home team. Marshall gets in the win column and covers in the first game with D’Antoni at the helm.

2-Unit Play. #791 Take Siena (+5) over Massachusetts (7 p.m., Friday, November 14)

UMass jumped off the block with a strong start to last season, but we’e going to fade them here to begin this campaign. The Minutmen, despite their up-tempo game, are going to have to figure things out minus their three best players from 2013, notably point guard Chaz Williams. Siena returns its top ten men from their rotation last year, a team that again should be in the thick of things in the MAAC. I think the underdog has some bite in this one, so we roll with the points and Siena.

2-Unit Play. #846 Take Mississippi (-11.5) over Charleston Southern (7 p.m., Friday, November 14)

Despite losing their best player to graduation in Marshall Henderson, I think Ole Miss won’t fall off. Too often the Rebels were overly relient on their top shooting threat, but that also because the team was extremely young. Now with some further experience and a much more balanced roster to count upon as a whole, I see Missisippi being perhaps more dangerous. They push aside Charleston Southern in their season opener, covering the number over the course of the 40 minutes.

3-Unit Play. #744 Take Colorado (-14) over Drexel (8 p.m., Friday, November 14)

Colorado has four returning starters back from a season ago. The only guy gone is Spencer Dinwiddle, who was the Buffs’ best player. However, what’s unique is that in his last season in 2013-14, he was out the second half of the year with a knee injury. Colorado learned how to play without him and equally not to rely on their main man. The Buffaloes finished last year winning six of their last ten games, not to mention an additional two victories in the Pac 12 conference tournament and an NCAA Tournament bid. Conversely, Drexel is now without its graduated backcourt of Frank Mssenat and Chris Fouch, and the main difference by comparison to Colorado is they’ve never been without these two proven talents. Drexel doesn’t have the scoring to keep up with Colorado for more than 15-20 minutes. Colorado so open this one up in the secnd half and pull away by 20+. Lay the number with the favorite here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE DAVIS (CBB)

5-Unit Play. Take #819 Morehead State +6.5 over UNLV (Friday, November 14th at 10:30 p.m.)

Morehead State has a lot of talent coming back to a team that finished third in the OVC last season. Sean Woods is a very good coach and he is excited about the team he has coming back. Guard play will be the key for State this season. They have a lot of depth at the guard position led by Angelo Warner, a preseason All-OVC team selection. Warner averaged 17.5 ppg last season and he gives the Eagles veteran leadership as well. He isn’t the only player to be excited about. The Eagles have a plethora of talent including 6 transfers that will be eligible to play immediately. The depth on this team gives them a serious chance to make the NCAA tournament.

Morehead State matches up well with UNLV as the Running Rebels will be extremely young and inexperienced this season. Having said that, UNLV certainly has more top end talent. They are loaded with true freshmen talent. A couple of these players have a chance to be first round draft picks in the NBA — led by Rashad Vaughn. The Rebs cleaned house and have no returning starters to a team that underachieved last year amidst turmoil in the locker room. This team has a chance to do some things later in the year but this is a tough opening opponent for a team playing their first “real” game together.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN (CBB)

6-Unit Play. Take #723 VCU (-8) over Tennessee (6:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 14)

This one should be a blowout! VCU is one of the best teams in the country and are ranked No. 16. They play a great style of basketball. They are going to press all game long and push the tempo up in this one. Tennessee has a whole new team. They lost five key players from last year. They also ran their coach off in the offseason. They have new players and a new coach and this is their first game together. And the Vols have to go up against a team that is one of the best in the country. The Rams are going to be very excited for this game because it is a chance to knock off a team from the SEC. The Rams finished last year 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. They are an outstanding basketball team and are very well coached. They have a big edge in this one and I think the Vols will struggle in their first game together. Lay the points.

2-Unit Play. Take #750 UTEP (-10.5) over Washington State (10 p.m., Friday, Nov. 14)

These two teams met last year and UTEP blew out Washington State. That game was up in Pullman and I think it will be worse down in the Lone Star State today. UTEP has most of its best players back from last season. They are one of the top teams in their conference and very experienced. Washington State has a new coach in Ernie Kent. He is just trying to get a feel for the players and the roster. The Cougars went just 10-21 last year and they are one of the worst teams in the country. It is going to take a long time to rebuild this program. I think that this one will be a blowout from start to finish. Go with the experienced team.

2-Unit Play. Take #765 VMI (-4) over Citadel (5:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 14)

I like VMI in this one. They have more talent overall than the Bulldogs. Citadel is routinely one of the worst teams in the country. They are too small to play at Division I level and they get killed on the boards. These two teams played last year and VMI won easily 82-71. I think it will be even worse this time. VMI has won three of the last four meetings and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight lined games. They don’t get lined very often so when they do the books are often off on them. This game is on a neutral court and I like the Keydets to win in a blowout.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gabriel DuPont

50 Dimes #774 quinnipiac -1.5

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Scott Delaney

Friday Winner

My 100 Dime Winner for tonight is on the FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS in their road clash with the Pepperdine Waves, in Malibu, Calif. tonight. And as I release this game at 10:30 a.m. eastern, the line I see is Fresno +2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pick Addict
7:00 PM EST NCAAB
CS NORTHRIDGE VS. SAN DIEGO STATE
PICK: CS NORTHRIDGE +16.5 (-110)
RISK: 5 UNITS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc NBA

14-18, -1850

3-Unit Play #703 Take Denver/Indiana OVER 196 (7 p.m. EST, Friday)
These are two of the best over teams in the NBA thus far this season, combining for a 10-5 mark for the over. Indiana has been better than advertised on offense, and their defense has not been as strong this season. But the reason we like this total the most is because of Denver. Their defense has been the worst in the NBA this season, they are allowing 111+ points per game, just a tick below the Lakers for the worst defense in the league. They have allowed 110 or more in five straight games. The Pacers are not going to get that kind of production, but they should get over the century mark here for the first time since the season opener. Denver plays at a very fast pace, so the Pacers offense will benefit from that. The Pacers scored 119 in the lone meeting in Indiana last year, and the last three meetings, all overs, have all surpassed 200 points. In fact, seven of the last eight meetings have gone over the posted total, and it seems like that is where this one is heading as well.

4-Unit Play #713 Take Philadelphia/Houston UNDER 204.5 (8 p.m. EST, Friday)
The Sixers come into this one after running with Dallas on Thursday, and we just expect them to be gassed here in this game and put up a real low team total. Even though this offense plays at one of the faster paces in the league, it still stinks, and they average only 93.3 points per game as of Thursday. These teams have already played once, in Philly, and the Sixers scored only 93. Coming in tired and on the road we don't think they will even do that well, and we think they will wind up at 90 or below. Houston actually is among the Top 5 defensive teams to open the season and allows only 92.1 points per game. They are No. 1 for field goal percentage defense. Of course, the worry here is that the Rockets score too many points for this total. However, we think they can get their points and have this one still finish well under the posted number. Houston has played a host of bad defensive teams, and they have scored over 210 only once. And if this is a big blowout like we believe it will be, there is a good chance the game slows down in garbage time and maybe even some starters get an extended rest with crucial games against OKC and Memphis next on deck.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe NBA

10-4, +1870


3 Unit Play Take #716 'under' 189.5 Detroit/Oklahoma City (8:05pm est):

Points look hard to come by here for both these two in this one. The Thunder have struggled all season to score and rightfully so as their missing their best offensive players due to injuries.

The Pistons were a joke on defense last season but with the hire of head coach Stan Van Gundy you can see how much of an emphasis he's put on them to toughen up on the defensive end of things this year.

Look for a low scoring game here from both squads. Play 'under' the total.

[golden contender]

GC: NBA Play

T.G.I.F Hard wood card has a 5* Perfect System Blowout with an Undefeated angle and 2 Opening Night College Hoops Power plays. In NCAAF Action its another Late season System Side. Football Continues to rank #1 at 41 games over .500 after Thursday sweep. Free NBA Power Angle Play below.




On Friday night the free NBA Power Angle play is on the NY. Knicks. Game 708 at 7:35 eastern. The Knicks have struggled of late but the losing streak should come to an end tonight against the Utah Jazz. The Knicks have covered 18 straight in the series and 9 straight wins and covers against them here at the Garden. The Jazz struggle on the road in Non conference games and are in a tough spot here tonight. Look for the Knicks to bounce back and get their first spread win at home. On Friday A powerful 4 game are takes center stage led by a pair of Opening games NCAAB Power angles plays, a 5* NBA Undefeated Blowout system that dates to 1995 and another Solid Late season College Football Super system on ESPN. Football continues to be ranked #1 at several leader boards and is a staggering 41 games over .500 for the season after last nights SWEEP. Jump on Now and start the weekend off big. For the free play. Take the NY. Knicks. GC