11-23-14

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Dave Cokin:

258 Vikings +9
262 Texans -1.5
271 Dolphins +7
584 Colorado State -14.5

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WNBAPicks (CBB) - Top 5* College of Charleston -3.5 (11:30 am start)

Lets start with the early tip off,11:30 AM we already had a total with the College of Charleston involved 2 days ago, Charleston is 1-3 but they are way better than their recent Record, they played good defense against Uconn and in the second half they shot very well from 3 point range , this morning against George Mason in the final round of the Puerto Rico Tournament they ae favorites for a reason

George Mason have been blown out by West Virginia , WVU plays Uconn later today and is a 5 point favorite,so when you keep in mind how long Charleston kept it close against the Huskies the spread should be way higher than 3.5, we are all over Charleston -3.5 5 units

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BigBetTiger

Tampa Bay +6 -110

teaser
Over 40 – cleveland/atlanta
Seattle pk

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Matt Rivers

Fifth Ever
Blank Check
Waive The Rating
NFL Game of my Career

Broncos

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Scott Delaney

ALL IN ON SUNDAY

3rd Ever 200 DIME
NFL Play in my 11 Years At This Site

Indianapolis Colts

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Sean Michaels

Winning Day # 124 of 206

100 DIME TEASER

Packers and Denver tease

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River City Sharps

The Washington Redskins are a complete mess right now. We have HC Jay Gruden calling out his QB in front of everyone to see, meticulously noting everything he does wrong. Griffin seems to be oblivious to all of the talk, still seeming to believe that he is an elite NFL quarterback. They now have to travel cross country to take on the San Francisco 49ers, winners of five of their last seven games. The Washington running game, which has been a big help to Griffin and the Washington offense, appears to be non-existent as RB Alfred Morris has gone 17 consecutive games without hitting the 100-yard mark! On the other side, the Niners offense has also struggled at times, but their defense has been extremely opportunistic in getting them back to their current 6-4 mark. This Washington team has really bad “mojo” right now and doesn’t really appear to like each other that much. The Skins are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall and the 49ers are 5-2 against the number over that same time. These are two teams going in different directions and we’re not afraid to lay the number here with the home team. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-9)

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NY Sports Genius

5 units

(NFL) Browns +3 (-105)
(NFL) Titans +11 (-110)
(NFL) Lions +7 (-105)


4 units

(NFL) Packers/Vikings over 49.5 (-110)

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Topshelfpicks

Carson K

(NFL)
Vikings +9
Texans -1.5
Lions +7.5

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - SUNDAY NFL

4* Best Bet = CLEVELAND
3* = INDIANAPOLIS
3* = "OVER" on TITANS/EAGLES
2* = Seattle
2* = Tampa Bay

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Josh Daniels

(NFL)

2* Texans
1* Dolphins
1* Giants

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Sports Locksmith

NCAAB:
Florida Atlantic +14 -110 1* (5:00 Eastern)

NBA:
Boston +6 -110 1* (6:00 Eastern)

NFL:
Minnesota +8.5 -110 2* (1:00 Eastern)
Detroit +7.5 -110 2* (1:00 Eastern)
Miami +7 -110 3* (4:25 Eastern)
New York Giants +3.5 -110 2* (8:30 Eastern)

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Sleepy J

3* Dallas -3 (-120)

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VegasButcher (NFL 33-33 -3.3 units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5

The Bucs are 4-1 ATS on the road this year while the Bears are only 1-3 ATS at home, and 5-14 ATS at home over the last few years. The big story here of course is the return of Lovie Smith to Chicago. He was a popular coach with the Bears’ players and most of them didn’t want to see him get replaced two years ago. Lovie is familiar with some of the Bears’ personnel so we’ll see if that is a factor in this one. In addition, McCown is also coming back to face his former team. He was phenomenal for Chicago last year when Cutler was hurt, and played very well last week @ Washington (288 yards, 12.5 PY/A, 86 QBR). Against 29th ranked Bears D he could have a big game again. On the other side, we have a Bucs D that is coming off a 6 sack / 11 QB-hit performance. The Bucs rank 13th against the run and could have success slowing down Forte as I’m sure Lovie will game plan for that. The offensive success of Chicago will rely on Cutler, which is never a good thing. My model has this game at -3.5 CHI, so clearly there’s some line value on the Bucs.

Tennessee Titans +11

There are two things that absolutely terrifies ButtFumble Sanchez: the first one are those big O-linemen butts of course that are always trying to force a fumble out of him, while the second is ‘pressure’ in the pocket. It’s well known that Sanchez absolutely stinks under pressure, as his performance is well below what an average QB’s is in those situations. Well, the Titans rank 3rd in ASR% (Adjusted Sack Rate), and their aggressive approach was on full display on Monday Night against the Steelers. They sacked Roethlisberger 5 times and registered a total of 8 QB hits, harassing him constantly. I don’t see why they wouldn’t have a similar game plan and approach against Sanchez. In addition, keep in mind that Steelers rank 11th in runO, as they absolutely abused the Titans in the run game on Monday. Well, Eagles are only 20th running the ball, and their O-line ranks 30th with ALY (Adjusted Line Yards) of only 3.3. Philly is a better team, but any team laying double-digits with ButtFumble Sanchez as a starting QB deserves a potential fade. My model has this game at -9.5 PHI and at 11, Titans have solid value on them. And if you do decide to back Philly, just remember this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vuvz15OjCVc

Cincinnati Bengals +1.5

Arian Foster is out for this one (very small chance he plays) so it will be up to Alfred Blue to carry the load again. Blue is an inferior runner and coming off 36 carries, who knows how effective he’ll be. In addition, Mallett, in his 2nd start, will now face Cincy’s 8th ranked passD, which just limited Drew Brees and Saints offense to 4.9 YPP and 10 points on their own home field. He did well last week but now that there’s some tape on him, we’ll see if he’ll be as successful. This could be the game where Cincy looks to get some revenge for those playoff losses against Houston in 2011 and 2012 seasons. I think the Bengals are a slightly better team in this particular matchup, and there are a lot more questions with Houston’s playmakers than with Cincy’s.

New England Patriots -7

So last week the Pats decided to run all over the Colts who struggle at stopping the run and are much better against the pass. This week, DET and their #1 ranked D and #1 ranked runD comes to town. What do you think the game plan will be here? Expect a lot of Vereen, as Detroit allows the most passing yards to RB’s in the league. In addition, I’d be surprised if the Pats run the ball much early, unless they’re protecting a lead late in the 4th quarter. I see a very pass-heavy game plan out of Belichik in this one. On the other side, we might see Detroit struggle offensively. Patriots limited Denver and Indianapolis to 21 and 20 points respectively in consecutive weeks, and the Lions haven’t broken 24-point mark since week 1 of the season. Detroit’s offense is fairly easy to slow down if you have to personnel to do it. They are so reliant on Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson that if you can take those two options away, Detroit really could really struggle. Well with Revis, Browner, and Arrington, the Pats have the personnel and of course in Bill Belichick, they have a coach that specializes in taking away an opponent’s strength. This could be a struggle for Detroit offensively and we all know how hard it is for opponents to play in Foxboro.

St Louis Rams +6

The Rams got creamed by SF by 14 points on 10/13, and then proceeded to beat SEA the following week. They then got destroyed 34-7 @ KC, before coming back and wining @ SF. They followed that up with a 17 point loss @ ARZ, and then came back and had a major upset of Denver at home last week. So if the pattern holds, we should see a blowout loss then @ San Diego in week 12 right? Well, maybe not so fast. This Rams D held San Fran to 10 points, held Arizona to 17 (with Palmer in the lineup), and shut down Manning allowing only 7 points to Denver. San Diego has now scored 0 and 13 points in their last 2 games as they’ve struggled offensively. Rivers is not right as he’s averaged a terrible 6.1 PY/A over the last 4 weeks. San Diego’s offense only recorded 4.4 YPP last week against Oakland at home and now will face a Rams D that has the 2nd most sacks since week 7. Keep in mind that the Chargers love to run the ball, but they’ll be going up against Rams’ 6th ranked runD. Bottom line is that we have one team that is playing well while the other one is really struggling. With huge games coming up @ BAL, vs NE, vs DEN, and @ SF, San Diego better not be overlooking this Rams squad.

Arizona Cardinals +7
The question is, can you trust Drew Stanton on the road, in one of the toughest placed to play at? Maybe, maybe not. I think the more accurate question is, can we consider Seattle the same ‘dominant’ team that we’ve seen over the last few years? The answer is NO. Look at how they’ve played recently: lost to DAL at home, lost @ STL, barely won @ CAR (13 – 9), barely beat OAK at home (30-24), were tied with Giants at home 17-17 entering the 4th quarter before NY totally fell apart, and of course lost @ KC last week. Now they’ll take on this Arizona team on a 6-game winning streak and 9-1 overall, and Seattle is the one laying 7 points? Last week Jamaal Charles rank for 159 yards on 20 carries, a 8.0 RY/A average. This Sunday, Seattle will face a similar player in Ellington. My model has this game at -2.5 SEA, as I think Arizona is a better team. Lots of value on them in this one.

Miami Dolphins +7

The Rams used a strong pass rush to keep Peyton Manning uncomfortable last week. Well, Miami has the 6th ranked pass-rush in the league to go with the 2nd ranked passD. This is the 4th overall D in the league and one of the elite units. Current reports indicate that Sanders is probable for Denver while Julius Thomas will most likely miss this one. In addition keep in mind that Miami had 10-days to prepare for this one. My model has this game at DEN -3, so there’s a lot of value on the Dolphins. They’ve played very competitive football lately, going 5-2 in the last 7 with two last-second losses against GB and DET. If their D plays up to its potential, this one will be a very close game.

Dallas Cowboys -3.5

A rested Dallas team coming off a BYE will take on the free-falling Giants. The biggest mismatch here is Dallas’ 4th ranked runO vs NY’s 26th ranked runD. In addition, remember that NY has lost a number of key defensive players, like Amukamar and Beason, since these teams faced off last time. I remember that first game between the teams and how effortlessly Dallas seemed to move the ball and control possession. They averaged a ridiculous 7.1 YPP and that’s with 35 rushing attempts and only 23 pass attempts. I would expect a similar result in this one as well.

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Cappers Access

Texans -1.5
49ers -9
Giants +3.5