Thursday 9-7-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

St. Louis (-125) over San Diego

This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems, and the Cardinals have the superior pitcher on the mound Thursday night. The Padres have hit just .229 as a team lifetime against Lynn, and Lynn has pitched solid this season in night games with an ERA of just 2.84. Opponents have hit just .213 against Lynn in night games this season, and since the All-Star break Lynn has posted an ERA of just 1.99. The Cardinals have hit .284 as a team lifetime against Richards with an OBP of .363, and he has struggled at home this season with opponents hitting .308 against him.

[New York Knight]

Cubs 12-2 in Lester’s last 14 road games vs. teams sub .500

Pirates are 0-4 in last 4 vs. a lefty.


CHC -129 / PIT +119

[New York Knight]

NSA(The Legend) MLB - Mets +110

Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Indians -1.5

VegasSI.com MLB - Mets +110

SportsAction365.com MLB - Mets +110

Gameday Network MLB - Nationals -160

Vegas Line Crushers MLB - Padres +110

InsiderSportsAction.com MLB - Nationals under 8

Lou Panelli MLB - Nationals under 8

Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Orioles over 8.5

VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club MLB - Dodgers -1.5

William E. Stockton MLB - Dodgers -1.5

Vincent Pioli MLB - Pirates +120

Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Pirates +120

SCORE MLB - Mets +110

East Coast Line Movers MLB - Braves +110

Tony Campone MLB - Braves under 9.5

Chicago Sports Group MLB - Dodgers -1.5

Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Indians over 7.5

VIP Action MLB - Orioles over 8.5

South Beach Sports MLB - Braves +110

Las Vegas Sports Commission MLB - Padres +110

Sports Cash System MLB - Orioles -110

BettingOnlineUSA.com MLB - Pirates +120

Sports Betting Professor MLB - Nationals -160

NY Players Club MLB - Indians over 7.5

Las Vegas Private CEO Club MLB - Pirates +120

Michigan Sports MLB - Padres +110

National Consensus Report MLB - Nationals -160

Fred Callahan MLB - Padres under 8.5

PointSpreadReport.com MLB - Padres +110

[New York Knight]

Philly Gambler

Sharp $$ Purchase Order


101 Kansas City Chiefs +9

[New York Knight]

CG Technology ...



While the over the counter money is heavy Patriots tonight, the account action is 2x $$ wagered on Chiefs spread.

More two way than thought would be

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW ENGLAND -8½ over Kansas City

As the only mainstays, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have won five Super Bowl rings in seven attempts with a rotating door of players surrounding the 12-time Pro Bowler on the field. This year will be no different. The Patriots did what they always do this offseason after cutting ties with the likes of Martellus Bennet, LeGarrette Blount and Chris Long for reasons like money and age. They then addressed a true need with the signing of former Bills cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who has yet to reach his potential as a true number one, but there is little doubt he'll be given every opportunity to shine under Belichick’s structured system. The Pats paid handsomely for Gilmore, something they rarely do, but if there was a weakness on this team in 2016 it was their inability to cover the other teams' top receivers, as they ranked 20th in DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average). The Pats had the most high profile injury in the preseason when they lost wide receiver Julian Edelman for the year but his loss is being blown out of proportion. We have little doubt that New England will be just fine with whoever slaps the pads on, as that has been their way in the BB/Brady era. Let's not forget this team won 11 games when Brady was sidelined in 2008. The Patriots went 14-2 last year and this year they’re personnel is improved.

The Football gods were smiling down on us when this opening night contest was announced. Pencil us in for an opportunity to fade Andy Reid in a high profile prime time game to kick off 2017. The Chiefs will get plenty of exposure this season with an NFL high six games scheduled in prime time. More importantly, the Chiefs are perceived as a quality team in this market so those big points look very appetizing. They may be fool's gold.

Last season, it looked like the stars were all aligned for the Chiefs to make their run. Quarterback Alex Smith was playing mistake free football and they were on the right side of some close games including a 29-28 win at Atlanta after Eric Berry took a two point conversion attempt by the Falcons back to the house. Kansas City also overcame a 21-point deficit in San Diego, a 17-point hole in Carolina and put together a game tying 75-yard touchdown drive including a two point conversion at Denver to win it in overtime, 30-27.

Perhaps the biggest slap in the face to the 2016 Chiefs was the field goal fest that ended in an 18-16 home playoff loss with Pittsburgh beating Kansas City at its own game behind six Chris Boswell kicks. Ol’ Andy never saw a field goal chance he didn’t like and last year that was more evident than ever. The Chiefs were brutal in the red zone ranking 28th in DVOA and 30th in goal-to-go situations. Another Reid specialty is passes at or behind the goal line, a stat the Chiefs led the NFL in again last season at 25%. The league average was 16% and no other team was over 22%. That’s what happens when you throw more screen passes to your wide receivers and tight ends than anybody else (68%, the next closest 50%). If the Chiefs need 10 yards in the red zone, Andy would rather dial up a short pass play that has no chance at a first down, kick his field goal and then head for the buffet.

The window is quickly closing on the duo of Reid and Smith but it’ll be Alex Smith being the odd man after Reid signed a four-year contract extension. To that point, the Chiefs were the first playoff team since 2006 to use their first round pick on a quarterback while returning their starter from the previous year, which is not exactly a vote of confidence in Smith from the front office. At the end of the day, the Chiefs kick FG's while the Patriots score TD's and by game's end, that will usually end up being a double-digit victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City +100

This is a huge series for the Kansas City Royals in terms of their chances of making the playoffs. The Minnesota Twins are currently the 2nd wild card team in the AL, and the Royals trail them by just 2.5 games. They need to take at least 3 out of 4 games from the Twins, and it starts with Game 1 tonight. Kyle Gibson should not be favored here. He is 9-10 with 5.33 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 24 starts this year. Sam Gaviglio is 3-5 with a 4.62 ERA in 11 starts, but 1-2 with a 3.69 ERA in 6 home starts. The Royals are 15-3 in home games after batting .333 or better over a 3 game span over the last 2 seasons. The Royals are 15-2 after scoring 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tommy Brunson

My Thursday comp release is the Dodgers on the Run Line to finally win a game over the Colorado Rockies.

Los Angeles stands at 1-11 their last 12 games, and they have lost 6 in a row heading into this series with division-rival Colorado. The only win in that stretch comes when Clayton Kershaw was on the hill back on September 1st.

Colorado comes to La-La Land with just 3 wins in their last 9 games, and the Rockies are just 9-24 their last 33 games played away from Coors Field.

Los Angeles has won the past 3 season series meetings, and 6 of the last 8 series meetings against Colorado this year. The Dodgers are also 24-5 the last 29 times Kershaw has started against the Rockies.

As for Mr. Kershaw, he is 16-2 this year, and the Dodgers are 20-2 when he starts.

Hey, L.A. has to win sometime, don't they?

Tonight is that night.

Dodgers on the Run Line the Thursday call.

5* L.A. DODGERS -1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joey Juice

My Thursday free play for you is the Chiefs and the Patriots to go Over the total.

Always bet over when Tom Brady is playing. Even in a snow storm!

There will be no snow storm in New England Thursday night, sorry Al Gore.

There will be a storm however, and that storm is Tom Brady.

NE adds deep threat Brandin Cooks just in the nick of time to make up for Edelman's absence. Gronk is back, Brady is 100%.

This one is going over the total.

2* KANSAS CITY-NEW ENGLAND OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VIC DUKE

Twins vs. Royals
Play: Twins -107

Royals had a brief patch in late August when they didn't score a run in four straight games; however, they've won 5 of their last 8 since. Nevertheless, I can't side with converted reliever Sam Gaviglio who was shipped in from Seattle. Gaviglio hasn't started since July 18th. His last two starts resulted in 12 ER in 10 2/3 IP. I don't expect him to last long tonight; after all, he rarely, if ever, turns in 6 innings. Therefore, more pressure put on the KC bullpen. On the other hand, the Twins counter with Kyle Gibson who is finding his form off three outstanding starts (1.37 ERA / 1.07 WHIP). Twins are 8-2 on the road with Gibson and they're 5-0 with him against KC including that 17-0 white washing September 2nd. We'll take the road savvy Twins here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOUG UPSTONE

Chiefs vs. Patriots
Play: Chiefs +9

New England opened up as touchdown favorite months ago and has been steadily rising in the last two weeks to -9 as of today. It is would seem nearly impossible to bet against the Patriots even at that many points and home teams on the first game of a new season played on a weekday are 9-3-2 ATS the last 14 years. However, not a fan backing any team by more than a touchdown in Week 1 and will have lean with Kansas City to cover.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bruce Marshall

Twins at Royals
Pick: Over

When last seen, Sam Gaviglio was pitching for Seattle in early July and getting battered, losing his last four starts. Demoted after a July 18 loss in Houston, Gaviglio now surfaces for the Royals. Minnesota should be able to do some business at the plate, and though pitching better lately, most of Kyle Gibson's starts for the Twins this season have been "over" results.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FRANK JORDAN

Chiefs vs. Patriots
Play: Over 48.5

These two teams scored last season with New England scoring 27 points a game last year and Kansas City scoring 24 points. These teams also had solid defenses, but early in the season with no tape on the offenses yet they have the advantage. In their first three games the Patriots scored 27 points per game and Kansas City put up 23 points per game. Look for the offenses to click early and the defenses to make adjustments in the third quarter and a little more offense later to push the total over the 50 point mark as the winning team will have low 30's and the losing team will be in the mid 20's as there will be more touchdowns their field goals in this game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

Kansas City / New England Under 48.5

Yes, the New England offense is going to be high-scoring once again this season, but we think there will be an adjustment period in the early going of this season as the team deals with the loss of WR Julian Edelman. On the other side of the ball, KC is the classic “bend-but-don’t break” team and the last thing they want to do is get in a shootout with Tom Brady and Co. The Chiefs have gone under in 20 of their last 24 games in conference play when the line is 47 points or higher and these two teams have gone under in four of the last five meetings with an average of just 41 points per game. Go under tonight!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Cubs -130

The Cubs have looked good and are starting to get back to their original lineup right in time for the postseason. This team is locked in and on their way to winning the division. The Cubs have the better pitching matchup tonight and the Pirates are just not that great against left handed pitching. Look for Lester to be in total control this evening.