Saturday 10-21-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan

Oct 21 '17, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Michigan vs Penn State
Play on: Penn State -9½ -110 at 5Dimes

The Play and How to Play it:
The Play: Penn State
The Matchup: MICHIGAN (5 - 1) at PENN ST (6 - 0)
Start Time: Week 8 Saturday, 10/21/2017 7:30 PM
SIM grading: 5 star grading of 3 to 10 star range
Recommended Strategy: Play a 5 star amount on Penn State using the line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
PSU is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 40.5, OPPONENT 20.5
PSU is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 41.2, OPPONENT 20.6
PSU is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 42.9, OPPONENT 23.1
PSU 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 40.7, OPPONENT 18.7
PSU 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 42.3, OPPONENT 13.1
PSU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 37.6, OPPONENT 16.6
PSU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 37.3, OPPONENT 19.3
PSU is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 41.5, OPPONENT 20.0
PSUs 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off 3 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 45.6, OPPONENT 23.4
PSUs 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 41.6, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 4*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Alexander

Oct 21 '17, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Syracuse vs Miami-FL
Play on: Syracuse +17 -110 at 5Dimes

Rating: 2 Unit NCAAF Free Pick
Syracuse shocked the collegiate football world last week, with a dominating 27-24 upset of then 2nd ranked Clemson. In that one, Clemson had to go it with an injured QB (Bryant), before he went out of the game, altogether. Certainly not the best of situations for Clemson. However, it was the Syracuse offense that was the story of the game, as it held 28-16 first down, 440-317 yard, & 83-57 play edges vs the Tigers' 8th ranked defense. When on, QB Dungey can excel both in the air and on the ground. Miami comes into this one off a miracle win over previously unbeaten Georgia Tech. This game spells TRAP

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Oct 21 '17, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Syracuse vs Miami-FL
Play on: Syracuse +17½ -110 at 5Dimes

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Syracuse +17.5

The Key: I don't like backing teams off huge wins like the one Syracuse is coming off of against Clemson. But since that game was played on Friday, the team has had extra time to get over it. And if they were playing a bottom tier ACC team, I would look to fade them. But the Orange to get face highly ranked and unbeaten Miami this week. They will certainly be up for this game because of it. Miami is getting too much love for its unbeaten record. But the Hurricanes pulled off two straight late miracles to beat mediocre Florida State and Georgia Tech teams. I don't know what more Syracuse needs to do to prove it can play with elite competition and start getting respect from oddsmakers. The Orange have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. They only lost by 9 at LSU as 21.5-point dogs, by 8 at NC State as 14-point dogs, and upset Clemson by 3 as 23-point dogs. And they had Clemson on the ropes even before they lost their starting QB just before half. This one will be closer than the books are expecting once again. Take Syracuse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vic Duke

Oct 21 '17, 10:15 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Wyoming vs Boise State
Play on: Wyoming +14 -109 at 5Dimes

Wyoming/Boise State 10:15: Pretty good value with Wyoming - coming off back to back wins as much heralded QB Josh Allen starting to find his rhythm. He does miss RB Brian Hill as the running game is suffering. Nevertheless, we'll ride the momentum with the Cowboys who are now 10-1 ATS in October. They are not ready to hang with the big boys yet - getting waxed by Iowa and Oregon; however, they're 10-2 ATS against conference foes and 7-0 ATS as a road dog of less than 23 points vs an opponent off back to back wins. Sure, Boise is coming off some impressive wins and looking to avenge last year's loss; however, Boise just 3-13 ATS at home. Blue turf no longer an automatic under HC Harsin. We'll take the two touchdowns.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Oct 21 '17, 4:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Oregon vs UCLA
Play on: Oregon +7 -130 at 5Dimes

1* Free Play on Oregon +7 -130

Released on Oct 20 at 09:10 am

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Oct 21 '17, 8:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Arizona vs California
Play on: California +3 -105 at betonline

386 Arizona at California
The Wildcats are off back to back straight up upset wins over UCLA and Colorado. But this club is just 2-7 SU on the road as of yet, with one of those victories coming at UTEP. Simply can’t trust this club to win by a margin on the road against a decent team. Arizona is +8 explosive plays this season, while Cal sits at +11. The difference is that the Bears have played a 34 spot tougher schedule. Cal has only permitted 16 explosive plays in six FBS games this year. Only one team has managed more than 17 points at the half. The Bears are on the rise and the markets are slow to adjust. With an extra day to prepare off a positive upset of Washington State, we back the host on Saturday.
PLAY CALIFORNIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Oct 21 '17, 10:30 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Fresno State vs San Diego State
Play on: Fresno State +7½ -108 at betonline

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Fresno State +7.5

The betting markets have been slow to catch on to how good the Fresno State Bulldogs are this season. I think they're still behind the eight ball here as the Bulldogs are catching 7.5 points at San Diego State in a game they will likely win outright tonight.

Jeff Tedford came back to college football in a good situation here as there were 16 returning starters for Fresno State. And he has made the most out of it. The Bulldogs are 4-2 this season with their two losses coming against two of the best teams in college football in Alabama and Washington, and they covered the spread in both games.

In fact, the Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. They are coming off a 38-0 beat down of New Mexico last week, which is even more impressive when you consider the Lobos were coming off a bye week. I'm not so sure that Fresno State isn't the best team in the Mountain West this season in what has proven to be a wide open conference.

This is an awful spot for the San Diego State Aztecs. They will be deflated after suffering their first loss of the season last week, a 14-31 upset home loss to Boise State. The air has been let out of the balloon now as the Aztecs realize they won't be the Group of 5 representative for a New Year's Bowl. I don't expect them to get back up off the mat in time to put away a game Fresno State team by more than a touchdown this week.

The Bulldogs have really turned the corner since making the change to Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion a few weeks back. He has come in and lit it up by completing 65.8% of his passes for 966 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.7 per attempt. He has also rushed for 133 yards and 5.3 per carry, adding a nice dual-threat element to the offense that Chason Virgil simply did not have.

And this is actually a great matchup for Fresno State because their strength on defense is stopping the run, and San Diego State is an awful passing team that relies almost exclusively on the running the football. The Bulldogs are only allowing 111 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that normally average 157 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Those numbers become even more impressive when you consider they've had to face Alabama and Washington.

Fresno State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Fresno State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with SDSU. Bet Fresno State Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Oct 21 '17, 12:20 PM in 12m
NCAA-F | Pittsburgh vs Duke
Play on: Duke -7½ -110 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Duke -7½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Davis

Oct 21 '17, 8:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | West Virginia vs Baylor
Play on: West Virginia -9 -105 at betonline

Maybe this line is to good too be true, but I will bite here on it. I think this Baylor team is completely done with this season. They were destroyed last weekend @ Oklahoma St 59-16.
Baylor is giving up a terrible 9.1 yards per pass attempt and West Virginia averages 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Baylor is being out gained by over 100 yards per game. I like the come back from behind on West Virginia last week which I believes carries over here to this game. Baylor is terrible and West Virginia should have no problem covering

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Josephs

Oct 21 '17, 2:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Buffalo vs Miami-OH
Play on: Buffalo +3 -115 at BMaker

Miami Ohio enters this one having lost three straight. Over that span, the defense let them down against Notre Dame and Bowling Green. The offense has also had it's issues this season scoring 17 points or less three times. So much was expected from this team after their finish last season, but they have not met expectations. Buffalo has had two tough weeks after a three game win streak. They lost a multiple overtime game at home to Western Michigan and then a one point loss against NIU. Anthony Johnson is a very impressive WR although we are not sure who the QB is that will get him the ball. Buffalo has covered in six of their seven games this season including all four as an underdog. Miami-Ohio has been the opposite and has covered once in seven contests failing to do so in all five games as a favorite. Give me the road team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dennis Macklin

Oct 21 '17, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Arizona State vs Utah
Play on: Arizona State +9 -110 at 5Dimes

DMack's Free Play for Saturday, October 21, 2017, is on the Arizona State Sun Devils
Don't look now but the Arizona State Sun Devils look like they are playing to save Todd Graham's job. After a slow 1-2 start, ASU has beaten Oregon and Washington at home as a double-digit dog and gave Stanford all it wanted in Palo Alto, easily covering the 17 point spread in a 10-point loss. The Pitchforks will never be more confident then they are here coming off 13-7 upset of No.5 UWub in a game where the defense held the Huskies to 36 points and 202 yards below their season average. Granted, Utah is 6-0 ATS this year, and has won and covered four straight in the series but ... last year's game was 28-26 late second half before the Utes pulled away with three gimme late scores. State not fat and happy after the Washington win and Utah really shouldn't be laying double-digits to anyone with their LACK OF EXPLODICITY on offense. Let's grab the points and say Utah 28-24.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Preview: BYU at East Carolina
Gracenote
Oct 19, 2017

BYU's offense is sick - and a trip to East Carolina could prove to be the cure. The Cougars carry a six-game losing skid into Saturday's date with the Pirates, an intriguing meeting between one of the country's worst offenses and Division I's most porous defense.

BYU has manufactured just 60 points during the skid, and couldn't do much of anything en route to a 35-10 drubbing at the hands of Mississippi State last weekend. The Cougars recorded a paltry 176 total yards and eight first downs, prompting a familiar refrain from starting quarterback Tanner Mangum: "We sustained some drives, but just couldn't finish. That's on us. We have to be able to convert on third and fourth down." But like manna from above, BYU has been gifted a date with a Pirates team that is surrendering a whopping 50 points per game, more than five points clear of any other team in Division I. East Carolina was humbled 63-21 by Central Florida last time out, marking the third time the Pirates have surrendered more than 60 points in a game this season.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network. LINE: BYU -5.5

ABOUT BYU (1-6): Mangum will look to make Saturday's encounter in Greenville a get-right game; the junior signal-caller has yet to exceed 200 passing yards in a game so far in 2017, and has thrown seven interceptions over his previous four games. The running game averages 3.3 yards per carry, but BYU's two primary running backs - Ula Tolutau and Squally Canada - average 4.3 YPC between them while accounting for all three of the Cougars' rushing scores to date. The BYU defense has had trouble limiting opponent drive extensions, allowing foes to convert 44.2 percent of their third-down opportunities - good for 109th in the nation.

ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (1-6): The Pirates are not only the only NCAA team surrendering 50 points per contest - they're also allowing a Division I-worst 600 total yards per game. Quarterback Thomas Sirk has asserted himself well amid East Carolina's defensive struggles, throwing for 250 or more yards in three straight games before settling for just 91 yards in last week's loss to the Knights. The Pirates' running game has been abysmal, averaging just 3.2 yards per attempt; the team has been outgained by nearly 1,200 yards on the ground through the first seven games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. BYU ranks outside the top 100 nationally in third-down conversion rate (33.0 percent).

2. East Carolina has surrendered 37 red-zone scores in 42 opponent chances; both figures lead Division I.

3. Pirates WR Davon Grayson leads the AAC in receiving yards (631) and ranks fourth in receiving touchdowns (four).

PREDICTION: BYU 27, East Carolina 21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Brigham Young at East Carolina

ATS Trends
Brigham Young

Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Cougars are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Cougars are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Cougars are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Cougars are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Cougars are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Cougars are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.

East Carolina

Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Pirates are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games on grass.
Pirates are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Pirates are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Pirates are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.
Pirates are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Pirates are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss.
Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Pirates are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Pirates are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
Pirates are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Pirates are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Pirates are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

OU Trends
Brigham Young

Under is 5-0 in Cougars last 5 games in October.
Under is 6-1 in Cougars last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Cougars last 7 road games.
Under is 12-2 in Cougars last 14 non-conference games.
Under is 6-1 in Cougars last 7 games on grass.
Over is 11-2 in Cougars last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 12-3 in Cougars last 15 games overall.
Under is 22-6 in Cougars last 28 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 11-4 in Cougars last 15 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 19-7 in Cougars last 26 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Under is 13-5 in Cougars last 18 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

East Carolina

Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 vs. INDEP.
Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 games overall.
Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Over is 8-2 in Pirates last 10 non-conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 games in October.
Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 games on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 7-3 in Pirates last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 7-3 in Pirates last 10 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Preview: South Florida at Tulane
Gracenote
Oct 18, 2017

No. 13 South Florida has had the luxury of learning while piling up mostly easy victories this season and looks to establish the best start in school history when it visits Tulane on Saturday night for an American Athletic Conference battle. The Bulls can top the 2007 team that began the season 6-0 with a victory after knocking off Cincinnati 33-3 last week to win their school-record 11th straight contest.

“We can improve, we can get much better. We haven’t arrived yet,” USF coach Charlie Strong told reporters. “I think sometimes that’s what we think and we have to get rid of that attitude. … We don’t know how far we can go. We haven’t put together a complete game on offense, on defense and in the kicking game.” Senior quarterback Quinton Flowers has still led the Bulls to at least 30 points in 23 straight games, which is tied with Oregon (2011-12) for the longest such streak since 1936. Tulane might not be able to end that impressive run Saturday, but the Green Wave’s triple-option offense will give South Florida a new challenge in the first meeting between the two teams. Senior running back Dontrell Hilliard leads Tulane with 607 yards and eight TDs on the ground, averaging 125.8 over the last four games, and the Green Wave are 3-0 at home.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2. LINE: USF -11.5

ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (6-0, 3-0 AAC): The Bulls lead the nation with 15 interceptions and have held two AAC opponents to single digits in the last three games, but gave up 606 yards against Navy’s triple-option attack in 2016. USF can match most teams in the nation offensively, averaging 492 yards and 42.8 points, with Flowers throwing for 1,118 yards and 10 TDs while rushing for another 475 and six scores. Flowers is one of three seniors who have rushed for at least 400 yards as running backs Darius Tice (493) and D’Ernest Johnson (485) have combined for 12 touchdowns on the ground.

ABOUT TULANE (3-3, 1-1): The Green Wave put up 62 points in their last AAC game against Tulsa, but struggled last week in a 23-10 loss at Florida International as they possessed the ball for 13:40 less than the Golden Panthers. Junior quarterback Jonathan Banks runs the show, accumulating 267 yards rushing with three touchdowns and 502 through the air with four scoring strikes, while senior Sherman Badie (244) and sophomore Darius Bradwell (223) have also been productive on the ground. Junior wide receiver Terren Encalade is four receiving yards from 1,000 in his career (218 this season on 15 catches).

EXTRA POINTS

1. Hilliard needs 53 rushing yards to move past Bill Banker (2,516) for fifth on the school’s all-time list.

2. South Florida LB Auggie Sanchez moved into second on the school’s all-time list in tackles (342) and is 25 behind Kawika Mitchell.

3. Green Wave senior CB Parry Nickerson, who has three interceptions this season, is expected to make his 40th straight start.

PREDICTION: South Florida 42, Tulane 24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - No. 13 South Florida at Tulane

ATS Trends
South Florida

Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bulls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Bulls are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
Bulls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bulls are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games in October.

Tulane

Green Wave are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Green Wave are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Green Wave are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Green Wave are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Green Wave are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games in October.
Green Wave are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Green Wave are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Green Wave are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Green Wave are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

OU Trends
South Florida

Over is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 road games.

Tulane

Over is 4-0 in Green Wave last 4 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Green Wave last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Green Wave last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2 in Green Wave last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 5-2 in Green Wave last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.