Sunday 10-13-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends for this week’s NFL games:

— Jets are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC teams.

— Miami covered twice of last nine games vs NFC teams.

— Bengals are 9-3 in last 12 games as a road underdog.

— Dallas is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a non-divisional road favorite.

— Falcons covered three of last 16 games outside their division.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


WHAT’S WORSE THAN A TOILET BOWL?

As Jason Logan says, the matchup between the winless Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins isn’t so much a Toilet Bowl as an “ill-timed poop in the woods.” You may have to explain to your significant other why you are watching such poorly played NFL football on Sunday. Your answer to that should be: for the value! We have a play for you on this Canadian Thanksgiving Weekend treat.

Dolphins quarterback Josh Rosen put together two non-disastrous starts before his Week 5 bye. The Team only put up 16 points but did manage to score their first offensive touchdown this year. Getting most of Rosen’s attention is receiver Preston Williams who has 19 targets for eight grabs and 114 yards in his last two games. Look for Preston to go Over his receiving total of 54.5 yards as Washington is allowing 78 yards a game to team’s No.2 WR.


HOOPER TROOPERS

Falcons’ No. 1 receiver Julio Jones did not practice yesterday and is coming off back-to-back scoreless weeks where the All-Pro didn’t top 55 yards in either of those games. Picking up the slack is Austin Hooper who is fantasy’s No. 1 tight end and averaging 7.5 grabs for 93 yards over that same two-game stretch.

It just so happens that the league’s hottest TE is running up against the league’s worst defensive team to TEs as the Falcons play the Cardinals. Hooper’s totals will be very sharp as many prop bettors, ourselves included, have been religiously fading Arizona to TEs, but this is a matchup Hooper can win, especially if Jones’ injury slows him down.

Take Hooper’s reception total of 4.5 and hit the Over as the ATL TE has cleared that mark four times this year and the Cards have also the Over four times.


RUSSELL FLEXIN’

Russell Wilson has the second-lowest odds to win the MVP behind only Patrick Mahomes. Wilson has thrown the ball over 29 times just twice this year but has still tossed 12 TDs, zero INTs and is completing 73 percent of his passes.

With the Browns showing the world how well they can stop the run, look for the Seattle Seahawks to lean on the ground game versus the Browns who are surrendering 6.5 yards per carry over their last three games.

Take Wilson’s Under 30.5 pass attempts and if you are looking for another play, jump on the Over 1.5 passing TDs.


HOUSE OF CARDS

Since 2017, the Atlanta Falcons are 5-16-1 ATS on the road but you can argue that there are a lot of factors in this trend that aren’t specific to the same Falcons team that is heading to Arizona to face the Cardinals in Week 6. What we do know about this current team is that they are allowing a disproportionate 141.1 QB rating to opposing signal-callers over their last three weeks.

Sure, Deshaun Watson’s 426 yards and perfect QB rating skew that number, but the dirty birds still allowed Marcus Mariota and Jacoby Brissett to complete 72 percent of their passes for five TDs and zero interceptions in Weeks 3 and 4. Also not helping the Falcons’ cause is that they are pacing the league in points allowed on the road at 36.

After putting up 26 points versus the Cincinnati Bengals’ 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense, Kyler Murray and the Cards will get to tee off on the Falcons’ equally terrible 29th-ranked DVOA passing defense. Arizona gained a season-high 514 yards of offense last week in their first win as Murray has really figured out his rushing game lately rushing for 189 yards and two scores over his last three. Kliff Kingsbury is finding this offense’s identity which will help in exposing Atlanta’s defensive road struggles on Sunday, even if David Johnson sits.

Wait to take the Over on Arizona’s team total closer to kickoff. The total may drop from 24.5 if David Johnson doesn’t suit up and won’t likely increase if he is active.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 6 odds movers and shakers: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

New York quarterback Sam Darnold returns this week, which makes a big difference in the line. Without Darnold, the Jets would be nearly two-touchdown home 'dogs to Dallas, but instead are +7.

NFL Week 13 has a dozen Sunday games and a Monday nighter on the somewhat semi-frozen tundra. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

INJURY IMPACT

NEW YORK JETS: This week’s big mover isn’t due to someone who’s out, but rather someone who’s back in. After a monthlong bout with mononucleosis, quarterback Sam Darnold returns to lead New York at home against Dallas. “Without Darnold, this game would be Cowboys favored by 13.5 or 14, seeing as Luke Falk is third string for the Jets,” Osterman said. “With Darnold, we opened at Cowboys -7.5, and we’re now down to -7. Darnold is one of the biggest movers of a line, because of who is behind him.”

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Running back Alvin Kamara (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game at Jacksonville. “With the Kamara news, we moved the line a half-point,” Osterman said of a Friday afternoon adjustment from Saints +2 to +2.5. “If he doesn’t play, then I wouldn’t be surprised if it moved another half-point. He’s very important to their offense right now.”

LOS ANGELES RAMS: Running back Todd Gurley is doubtful to play in an NFC West clash against Seattle, as he deals with a quadriceps injury. “He’s worth a half-point,” Osterman said. Anticipating the Gurley news, The SuperBook moved the Rams from -3.5 to -3 on Wednesday.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: QB Patrick Mahomes’ ankle is apparently fine, but wideouts Tyreek Hill (shoulder) and Sammy Watkins (hamstring) – who both missed last week’s home loss to the Colts – are questionable this week at home against the Texans. The Chiefs are down to -4, after opening -8 pre-Indy loss. “Our Chiefs line had Hill out and Watkins in built into it. If Watkins is out, that wouldn’t have much effect on the line. But if Hill plays, that would move the line a half-point.”

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Mason Rudolph (concussion) is out, meaning third-string QB Devlin Hodges gets his first NFL start, with Pittsburgh +7 at the Chargers on Sunday night. “We expected Rudolph not to play, so the line is already without Rudolph. The difference between Rudolph and Hodges is about 3 points.”


WEATHER WATCH

SEATTLE AT CLEVELAND: The breeze will blow out of the southwest at 17 mph, with gusts to 23 mph. The total opened at 47, reached 47.5, then dipped to 46 Friday before ticking to 46.5. “The total has come down a little bit. Wind can really affect the kicking game.”

DALLAS AT N.Y. JETS: There’s a better-than-50-percent chance of precipitation for this 4:25 p.m. ET kick at MetLife Stadium. But that hasn’t altered any numbers yet at The SuperBook. “We’re waiting to get more of an accurate forecast Saturday.” The Cowboys are -7, with a total of 44.5.

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The Monday nighter could be the chilliest game of the year so far, with temperatures in the low-40s/high-30s. The SuperBook opened the total at 46.5 and it peaked at 47.5, then returned to the opening number. “But temperature alone usually doesn’t have too much effect on the total, especially in places such as Green Bay, where low temps are expected.” The Packers are at -4.


PROS VS. JOES

SEATTLE AT CLEVELAND: The line flipped from Cleveland -2 to Seattle -1.5, then ticked to Seattle -1. “This is a classic overreaction from Monday night, when the Browns looked bad” at San Francisco. “Pros are on Cleveland, the public is all over the Seahawks, in a spot where the Browns would probably be a small favorite had they not been blown out on Monday.”

NEW ORLEANS AT JACKSONVILLE: This game opened at pick and moved to Jaguars -1.5 by Tuesday, and as noted above, the Jags got to -2.5 Friday on the Kamara news. “Pros are on the Jags, the public loves the Saints.”


REVERSE LINE MOVES

NEW ORLEANS AT JACKSONVILLE: Along with this matchup pitting Pros vs. Joes, it falls into this category, as well. “The line opened pick, and we’re now at Jags -2.5, even though we’ve taken more money on the Saints.” The aforementioned Kamara injury factors into that line, as well.

CAROLINA VS. TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay opened +1.5, the line quickly got to pick, then trended back toward Carolina, with the Panthers now -2.5. “We haven’t taken much on that game in general, but we have taken a little bit more on the Bucs, even though the market is going the Panthers’ way.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

251CAROLINA -252 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 2 seasons.

253CINCINNATI -254 BALTIMORE
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play over the last 2 seasons.

255SEATTLE -256 CLEVELAND
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

257HOUSTON -258 KANSAS CITY
HOUSTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.

259NEW ORLEANS -260 JACKSONVILLE
NEW ORLEANS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

261PHILADELPHIA -262 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 2 seasons.

263WASHINGTON -264 MIAMI
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after playing a game at home in the last 2 seasons.

265SAN FRANCISCO -266 LA RAMS
LA RAMS are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.

267ATLANTA -268 ARIZONA
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game in the last 2 seasons.

269DALLAS -270 NY JETS
DALLAS are 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992.

271TENNESSEE -272 DENVER
DENVER is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in the last 3 seasons.

273PITTSBURGH -274 LA CHARGERS
PITTSBURGH is 63-30 ATS (30 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

275DETROIT -276 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 20-6 ATS (13.4 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 6

Panthers (3-2) vs Buccaneers (2-3) (@ London)— Carolina is 3-0 with Allen at QB, scoring 29.3 ppg; they scored 10 TD’s on 33 drives, after scoring three TD’s on 26 drives in Newton’s 2 starts. Bucs (+6.5) posted 20-14 upset in Charlotte in Week 2, holding Panthers to 39 RY, just their 4th win in last 13 series games; teams combined to convert only 5-26 third down plays. Carolina has nine takeaways (+5) in its last three games- they covered five of last six pre-bye games. Tampa Bay allowed 31+ points in four of five games, giving up 12 TD’s on last 33 drives; they split last four game, despite being plus in turnovers all four games. Bucs are on road for third week in row; they’re 14-12 ATS in last 26 games as an NFC South underdog.

Bengals (0-5) @ Ravens (3-2)— Winless Cincy has three losses by 4 or fewer points; they’re 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as road underdogs. In last four games, Bengals allowed 191.5 YR/game and were outscored 61-19 in first half. In their last three games, Cincy has six plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 17. Ravens won in OT at Pittsburgh LW; they covered six of last nine games the week after playing Pitt. Four of five Baltimore games went over; they’ve run ball for 192.2 yards/game. Ravens are 6-10 ATS in last 16 points as a home favorite, 0-2 TY- they covered once in last nine division games. Teams split last six series games; Bengals won three of last five trips here- four of last five were decided by 5 or fewer points.

Seahawks (4-1) @ Browns (2-3)— Seattle had four extra days to prep for this; they played on Thursday LW, Browns played on Monday. Seahawks are 4-1 with three wins by 1 or 2 points; they’re 5-1-1 ATS in last seven games as road underdogs. Seattle is 6-9-2 ATS in last 17 games on natural grass. Cleveland is 2-3 with only one game decided by less than 15 points; they’re 0-2 SU at home, coring 13 points in both games- -they’re 6-13 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite Seahawks lost two of last three visits to Lake Erie; home side won four of last five series games; Seattle’s last trip here was in 2011. NFC West non-conference road underdogs are 5-0 ATS; AFC North home favorites are 0-5.

Texans (3-2) @ Chiefs (4-1)— Houston exploded for a 53-32 win LW after underdogs covered their first four games; Texans split their first two road games, covered five of last six games when getting points on the road- three of their last four games stayed under. Houston is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win. Chiefs lost 19-13 LW after scoring 33.8 ppg in their 4-0 start; they’re 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite. KC lost field position by 11-7 yards in their last two games- their 6.7 yards/pass attempt LW is a season low. Chiefs won four of last five series games, winning last one 42-34 in ’17; teams split two games here, last of which was in ’13. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 7-1 ATS; AFC West home favorites are 1-4.

Saints (4-1) @ Jaguars (2-3)— Saints won all three of Bridgewater’s starts, scoring 33-12-31 points; they’re 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games, 8-3 in last 11 as a road favorite, 9-4 in last 13 games on natural grass- they’re 7-1 ATS in last eight games where spread was 3 or fewer points. NO opponents converted only 17 of last 49 third down plays. Jaguars gave up 285 RY in LW’s 34-27 loss at Carolina; Jags are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a home dog, but 11-18-1 in last 30 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Jax ran ball for 418 yards the last two weeks; Home side won five of six series games; Saints are 4-2 vs Jags, but lost two of last three visits here, last of which was in 2011.

Eagles (3-2) @ Vikings (3-2)— Eagles won last two games, scoring 34-31 points after a 1-2 start; they’re 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog. Philly won field position by 7+ yards in four of their five games- they held all five opponents under 90 YR. Vikings scored 28+ points in their three wins, 16-6 in their losses. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 24-7-1 ATS as a home favorite; Vikings ran ball for 172+ yards in 4 of 5 games- Bears held them to 40. Under is 4-1 in Viking games, only one of which was decided by less than 10 points. Philly is 5-3 in last eight series games; they split last six visits to the Twin Cities, last of which was ’13. Wentz grew up in North Dakota, so this is as close to a home game as he’ll get in the NFL.

Redskins (0-5) @ Dolphins (0-4)— Washington fired Jay Gruden Monday, will probably try to run ball more with Callahan the new coach; Redskins haven’t said who the QB will be- they’re 6-4 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. Washington was outscored 28-0 in 2nd half of last two games. Miami has been outscored 81-0 in 2nd half of games this year; they’re 0-4 ATS, with a 30-10 loss the closest game they’ve played so far. Dolphins were outscored 132-20 in their first three home games. Redskins lost last five visits here, with four of five losses by 7 or less points. NFC East teams are 4-8 ATS outside their division; AFC East teams are 5-6. I would not recommend wagering on this game- two very bad teams.

49ers (4-0) @ Rams (3-2)— Rams had four extra days to prep for this; they played on Thursday LW, 49ers played on Monday. Sense of urgency for LA with 49ers two games up in loss column; Rams scored 69 points in last two games but lost both of them- they turned ball over nine times in last three games (-6), and converted only 7 of last 22 third down plays. LA ran ball 29 times, threw it 117 times in last two games, not usually a good ratio. 49ers are 4-0 with one win by less than 14 points; under Shanahan, SF is 9-7 ATS as a road underdog. 2-0 this year. Niners have 11 takeaways in four games (+3) but also turned it over eight times. LA won three of last four series games, with average total of 64; teams split last four games played here.

Falcons (1-4) @ Cardinals (1-3-1)— Atlanta lost its first three road tilts by 16-3-18 points; they’re 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games- Falcons allowed 12 TD’s on their opponents’ last 25 drives, and allowed 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in four of five games (Philly was 4.6). Cardinals got first win LW, running ball for 266 yards; they’re 0-2-1 at home, losing by 18-17 points- they trailed 24-6 in the game they tied. Arizona is 14-10-1 ATS in its last 25 games as a home dog. Cardinals blew 23-9 lead in last 5:00 at Cincy LW, but kicked FG at gun for their first win. Home side won last eight series games; Falcons lost last three visits to desert, with last one in ’13, but they did beat Redbirds 48-14 (-9.5) at home LY.

Cowboys (3-2) @ Jets (0-4)— Darnold (mono) returns at QB for Jet squad that was outscored 84-23 in last three games; have to be skeptical of his conditioning right off bat. NYJ offense was outscored 14-6 by Philly’s defense in their 55 plays LW- they’re 0-3-1 ATS in last four games as a home underdog. Cowboys lost last two games after a 3-0 start; they scored 31+ points in their three wins, were held to 10-24 in losses. Dallas is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite on road, 8-4-1 in last 13 games vs AFC squads. Jets won last two series games, 27-24/19-16, after losing seven of previous nine meetings. Dallas won five of seven series games played here. NFC East teams are 4-8 ATS outside their division; AFC East teams are 5-6.

Titans (2-3) @ Broncos (1-4)— Tennessee scored 43-24 points in its wins, 17-7-7 in losses; they were outscored 34-7 in first half of the losses- they outscored foes 36-13 in first half of wins. Titans were 0-4 on FG’s LW, so they changed kickers. Under Vrabel, Titans are 5-2 ATS as an underdog on road. Last four Titan games stayed under the total. Underdogs covered four of five Denver games; Broncos got first win LW, scoring TD’s on first two drives, then hanging on. In their last three games, Denver was outscored 43-16 in second half. Broncos won six of last nine series games; home side won last three. Titans lost last five visits here, losing last one 51-28 in ’13. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 7-1 ATS; AFC West home favorites are 1-4.

Steelers (1-4) @ Chargers (2-3)— 3rd-string QB Devlin gets first NFL start here; he was 7-9/68 passing in his debut LW, an OT home loss to rival Baltimore. Former Bronco Paxton Lynch is the new backup QB. Steelers are 1-4, but three of four losses were by 4 or less points; Pitt is 16-8-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog. Chargers scored only 3 points on four trips to red zone LW in their 20-13 home loss to the Broncos LW- they’re 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Chargers’ only TD LW was scored on a punt return. Bolts’ last four games stayed under the total. Pitt won four of last six visits to San Diego, last of which was in ’15; Chargers (+3) won 33-30 at Heinz Field LY.

Lions (2-1-1) @ Packers (4-1)— Detroit hasn’t played in 15 days; all four of their games were decided by 4 or fewer points, all covered by the underdog. Under Patricia, Lions are 5-2 ATS as road underdogs- three of their four games this year went over. Detroit has nine takeaways in four games (+3); they’re 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games on natural grass. Green Bay has 11 takeaways (+9) in its four wins, zero (-2) in the one loss; Packers are 22-13-2 ATS in last 37 games as a home favorite. Detroit won last four series games, scoring 30+ points in all four; they won four of last five visits here, winning 30-17/31-0 in last two. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 5-10 ATS so far this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRANDON LEE
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
49ers vs. Rams

10* FREE NFL PICK (Rams -3)

I'll take my chances here with Los Angeles as a mere 3-point home favorite against the 49ers. I love this spot for the Rams. They are coming off back-to-back losses and getting no love at home against a San Francisco team that just got the public's attention with last week's 31-3 blowout win at home over the Browns on Monday Night Football.

I get the 49ers are 4-0, but I don't think a single one of the teams they beat (Bucs, Bengals, Steelers, Browns) will be in the playoffs. Rams just lost at Seattle on Thursday Night Football 30-29. They outgained the Seahawks 477 to 429 and were up in control of that game most of the way.

That's two straight weeks the offense has looked good. Gurley may or may not play, but I don't think it will matter in the grand scheme of things. Rams have a strong run defense and the 49ers offense has been centered around their run game. Unfortunately for SF they lost arguably the one guy they couldn't lose in fullback Kyle Juszczyk. The run game was not the same after he went out.

Another key factor here is rest. While LA is playing on 3 extra days of rest, the 49ers are playing on a short week of rest. Give me the Rams -3!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Texans vs. Chiefs
Texans+4½ -115

Edges - Texans: QB Deshaun Watson 8–2-1 ATS as a dog, including 4-0 ATS versus foe coming off a loss … Chiefs: 2-12 SU at home when coming off a home loss … We recommend a 1* play on Houston Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WILL ROGERS
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Cowboys vs. Jets
OVER 43½

The set-up: Dallas has lost two straight and after this non-conference matchup it has the Eagles before it's bye week. The Cowboys started the season 3-0, but now the questions are starting to be asked if that was because of the weak competition they faced to open the campaign. Dallas looked impotent in its 12-10 setback to a Drew Brees-less Saints team, before then losing 34-24 to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers last weekend. Clearly the visitors can't "look past" their opponent today. In fact, it's totally the opposite. This is a golden opportunity for Dak Prescott and company to get back on track today. At 0-4 and with their starting QB still with question marks surrounding his availability, clearly there's not much good to say about the Jets this season. They do have the Patriots on deck next week, so the road ahead isn't going to get any easier. From a situational stand point, I definitely think this sets up as a wide open "shootout," rather than a slower-paced "chess match."

The pick: Dallas has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after having lost two of its last three SU, while New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 14 as a home dog. I think this number is a little low, consider the over.


1* FREE PLAY on the OVER Cowboys/Jets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RICKY TRAN
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Steelers vs. Chargers
Chargers-6½

I don't think there's any reason to "over-think" this one. Pittsburgh's season is over at 1-4, while LA is desperate to get back into the winners circle at 2-3. Pittsburgh QB' Mason Rudolph is listed as questionable for this one and if he does play, one has to wonder about whether or not he's truly at 100% health after last week's concussion? Philip Rivers and company have two straight tough road contests after this (Tennessee and Chicago), which essentially makes this a "must win" contest for the home side.

Key Trends:

- Pittsburgh is just 10-16 ATS in its last 26 vs. the conference.

- LA is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games.

The verdict: Pittsburgh isn't in the frame of mind to even use the "spoiler factor" as motivation right now. This one has "blowout" written all over it in my opinion; consider the Chargers this weekend!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOSEPH D'AMICO
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Saints vs. Jaguars
Saints+1½

Take New Orleans.

Game 259.

10:00 am pst.

Gardner Minshew has played well. But, so has Teddy Bridgewater. The Saints know how to keep games close, with all four of their wins coming by seven points or less. Mind you, they are riding a three-game win and cover streak over such notables as the Seahawks, Cowboys, and Buccaneers. The Jaguars two victories have come against the Titans and Broncos, which are a combined, 3-7. They were shredded last week by Christian McCaffrey and now must face Alvin Kamara this week. New Orleans is money on the road, going 21-8 ATS the last 29 as a guest. The Jaguars are 0-5 the last five in October. Take the Saints. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRAD DIAMOND
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Texans vs. Chiefs
Texans+4½

1* Houston over Kansas City

At home the Chiefs look to rebound after a home loss (13-19) to Indianapolis, while Houston comes into play since crushing Atlanta 53-32. In the KC loss they again had problems establishing the running game (14/36). If the Texans grab the edge on the ground they could win and cover, especially if QB Mahomes is not 100%. Against the spread numbers illustrate the series road unit is 5-1 ATS L6 with the Texans 7-3-1 ATS against the AFC and 5-2 ATS during October. Good Luck, and remember last Sunday we cashed a 3-0-1 ATS ticket including the 5* NFL Game of the Week on Denver.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE PRICE
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Cardinals+2½

1* on Arizona Cardinals +2.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals continue to fight week in and week out for first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury. They have been competitive in the majority of their games and are coming off a 26-23 road win at Cincinnati in which the offense took off for their best game of the season. The Cardinals amassed 514 total yards on the Bengals in the win. Now they are up against a Falcons team that looks to have quit on head coach Dan Quinn. They have lost 3 straight, including a 14-point home loss to Tennessee and a 21-point road loss at Houston. They gave up 53 points to the Texans last week, so you can imagine Kyler Murray is going to have another big game here. The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games when the total is 49.5 or higher. Take Arizona.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Bengals vs. Ravens

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Baltimore Ravens -10.5

The Cincinnati Bengals are a disaster. They are 0-5 this season and giving up 27.2 points per game and 412.2 yards per game. Their defense can’t stop anybody, and the Baltimore Ravens should be able to hang a big number on them here Sunday. That will be key in the Ravens covering this double-digit spread.

The Bengals gave up 514 yards to a Cardinals team last week that had been struggling on offense coming in. They just cannot get healthy on defense as they are missing guys like Shawn Williams and Carlos Dunlap. Offensively, the Bengals are still missing A.J. Green and John Ross, arguably their two best receivers coming into the season. They also have injuries up front along the offensive line. They are scoring just 16.0 points per game as a result.

I know the Ravens only beat the Bengals 24-21 at home last year with Lamar Jackson. But this Bengals team is a lot worse than that version, and this Ravens team is a lot better. And keep in mind the Ravens rushed for 265 yards on the Bengals last year, so it was a misleading final. They held the Bengals to just 255 total yards in the win.

The Ravens have one of the most improved offenses in the league this year. They are scoring 32.2 points per game and averaging 441 yards per game. They are still running the ball very well at 192 yards per game and 5.3 per carry, but the improvement has come in the passing game with Jackson. The Ravens are averaging 249 passing yards per game and 67% completions. This new balanced attack has been tough for opposing defenses to tame.

Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who give up 6.0 or more yards per play over the last two seasons. The Bengals are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 vs. excellent rushing teams that average 150 or more rushing yards per game. Look for the Ravens to name their score in this one and easily cover this double-digit spread. Bet the Ravens Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Titans vs. Broncos
UNDER 41 -115

The Denver Broncos are coming into this contest looking to build on their first win of the season, a 20-13 road triumph at the Los Angeles Chargers. Under is 9-1-1 in the Broncos last 11 games following a straight up win, and I think both teams will struggle to move the ball in this contest.

Here Denver hosts a Tennessee Titans team that has struggled to put points on the board ever since their blowout of Cleveland in Week 1. They've had big trouble to protect their QB as Marcus Mariota has been sacked 22 times, second-most in the NFL.

Denver's defense is solid holding opponents to 328.6 total yards and 21.2 points per game, and the Titans are right up there with them with 332.2 yards and 15.2 points per game allowed. I would be extremely surprised if either team was to break out offensively all of a sudden here in the Mile High.

Under is 6-1 in Titans last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
49ers vs. Rams

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Rams -3

This is definitely a spot that favors the Los Angeles Rams. They are coming off back-to-back tough losses to the Bucs and Seahawks. They are tailing the undefeated 4-0 San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West now by multiple games, so they can’t afford to lose this game at home. Now the Rams have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday, while the 49ers are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. The Rams have played the much more difficult schedule this year. The 49ers are 4-0, but the four teams they have beaten all have losing records and are a combined 5-15 on the season. Now the 49ers have been hit hard by injuries too. They’ll be playing without their two starting offensive tackles in Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. They are also without do-it-all FB Kyle Juszczyk, the highest-paid fullback in the NFL and for good reason. And they could be without TE George Kittle, their best offensive weapon who had a questionable tagged placed on him after missing Friday’s practice. The Rams won 39-10 at home and 48-32 on the road over the 49ers last year. Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Give me the Rams