Thursday 10-31-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Ben Burns

FREE

Miami vs. Atlanta, 10/31/2019 19:00 EDT

Point Spread: +7/-115 Atlanta

Sportsbook:
Bodog

These teams just faced each other, two days ago, at Miami. The Heat won by a 112-97 score. If you follow the NBA, you probably heard that the Hawks lost Young to injury in that one. That result and the Young injury have the Hawks getting nearly as many points for this one, as they were for the game at Miami. I feel thats providing some value. Young is out for awhile, so the Hawks are going to need to learn to play without him. Playing with immediate revenge, against a divisional opponent, they should rally in his first game out. Keep in mind that the Heat are just 10-21-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit win. A closer look finds them at an ugly 4-13-2 ATS when off a double-digit home win. With the Hawks already 2-0 ATS as home underdogs, consider grabbing the points.

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1. NSA(The Legend) NBA – Heat -6.5
2. Gameday Network NBA – Nuggets under 225.5
3. VegasSI.com NBA – Spurs +5
4. Vegas Line Crushers NHL – Flames +125
5. Sports Action 365 NHL – Golden Knights -1.5
6. Point Spread Report NBA – Nuggets -4
7. Lou Panelli NBA – Spurs +5
8. Gerry “Big Cat” Andino NHL – Golden Knights -1.5
9. VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club NBA – Heat over 217.5
10. William E. Stockton NHL – Flames over 6
11. Vincent Pioli NHL – Golden Knights over 6
12. Steve “Scoop” Kendall NBA – Heat -6.5
13. SCORE NBA – Nuggets -4
14. East Coast Line Movers NHL – Flames +125
15. Tony Campone NBA – Heat -6.5
16. Chicago Sports Group NBA – Spurs +5
17. Hollywood Sportsline NHL – Golden Knights -1.5
18. VIP Action NBA – Heat -6.5
19. South Beach Sports NBA – Nuggets -4
20. Las Vegas Sports Commission NHL – Golden Knights over 6
21. NY Players Club NBA – Nuggets -4
22. Fred Callahan NBA – Heat over 217.5
23. Las Vegas Private CEO Club NHL – Flames +125
24. Michigan Sports NBA – Heat over 217.5
25. National Consensus Report NHL – Golden Knights over 6

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John Martin

Oct 31 '19, 7:05 PM in 31m
NBA | Heat vs Hawks
Play on: Hawks +7 -110 at Bovada

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Atlanta Hawks +7
This is a home-and-home situation for the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. The Heat beat the Hawks 112-97 in Miami on Tuesday and now these teams meet again two days later in Atlanta. I like the Hawks catching the points in the rematch as they will be the more hungry team for revenge. And this line was Miami -7.5 for the first meeting and now it’s Miami -7. They are saying Trae Young is worth 6 points to the Hawks, and I think that’s a little steep. The Hawks were actually competitive after losing Young early in that game due to injury as they cut the deficit to 9 points in the fourth quarter but couldn’t get any close. I think being at home this time around they’ll stay within this 7-point spread. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a loss by more than 10 points. Atlanta is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall. Give me the Hawks.

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Alex Smart

Oct 31 '19, 7:05 PM in 31m
NBA | Heat vs Hawks
Play on: Hawks +7 -110 at Bovada

Trae Young is injured and not in the Atlanta lineup tonight, but that does not justify this type of favorite line with visiting Miami. I know the Heat took the first of this home and home series the other night by a 112 -97 count, but Im betting the game will be alot closer here on the Hawks home court.
Spoelstra is 28-46 ATS versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 16 or more turnovers/game as the coach of MIAMI.
NBA - Favorites (MIAMI) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 65-110 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.
From a league wide trends perspective the Heat do not look like a viable favorite: Note: NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), poor ball handling team (16.5 or more TO's) against a good pressure defensive team (16.5 or more TO's) are 17-43 L/23 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Also NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent against opponent after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 12-32 SU L/5 seasons.
Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover

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Brandon Lee

Oct 31 '19, 7:05 PM in 31m
NBA | Heat vs Hawks
Play on: Heat -6½ -109 at GTBets

10* FREE NBA PICK (Heat -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with fading the Hawks at home Thursday night. These two just played on Tuesday at Miami, which the Heat won 112-97 as a 7.5-point favorite. Typically I would take the Hawks in this spot playing at home with revenge in a home-and-home set, but Atlanta lost their best player in that game, as Trae Young hurt his ankle and will not be available. Young was averaging 26.8 ppg and 7.3 apg thru the first 4. Only two other guys on the team average double-figures. Miami is 3-1 with their only loss being a 7-point setback at Minnesota where they had a 7-point lead going into the 4th. Until we see Atlanta can play without Young, I think it's worth a small bet on the other side. Give me the Heat -6.5!

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Jimmy Boyd

Oct 31 '19, 8:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Appalachian State
Play on: Georgia Southern +18½ -109 at GTBets

1* NCAAF - Free Pick on Georgia Southern Eagles +18½ -109
I really like the Eagles getting more than two touchdowns against the Mountaineers. Georgia Southern is not the least bit intimidated by this Appalachian State team. In fact, they beat them outright 34-14 as a 11-point home dog last year.
I'm not saying they will win outright on the road, but this is definitely an inflated line with Appalachian State being 7-0 and ranked No. 20 in the country. Eagles enter having won 3 straight and their only loss to a non-power 5 team was a mere 7-point loss at home to Lafayette.
I look for Georgia Southern's triple-option offense to give App State fits again. Last year they had 277 yards on 50 attempts. The other big key is the Eagles have a solid run defense, allowing just 3.5 yards/carry (full yard under their opponents average). Mountaineers aren't one-dimensional, but really rely on that running game to get the offense going.
Appalachian State is just 4-13 ATS last 15 at home after playing the previous two against conference opponents. That tells me they are routinely overvalued by the books the later we get into the season. Take Georgia Southern!

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Mike Williams

Oct 31 '19, 8:05 PM in 1h
NHL | Flames vs Predators
Play on: Flames +135 at YouWager

1* on Flames +135

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Dave Price

Oct 31 '19, 9:35 PM in 3h
NBA | Nuggets vs Pelicans
Play on: Pelicans +4 -105 at Bovada

Dave’s Thursday Free Play:
1* on New Orleans Pelicans +4
The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans are hungry for their first victory of the season after opening 0-4 with all 4 losses by 11 points or less. They have been competitive in every game, though they lost by 11 to the Warriors last time out, but that was without Jrue Holiday. Now Holiday returns from a knee injury and should help lead the Pelicans to their first win. The Nuggets have not been too impressive, and all of their games have been close decided by 8 points or less. The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Nuggets with both their losses coming by 6 points or less, and 2 upset victories. The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games, while the Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. Look for the Pelicans to bring it on National TV (TNT) tonight and get their first victory. Take New Orleans.

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Cole Faxon

Oct 31 '19, 10:05 PM in 3h
NHL | Canadiens vs Golden Knights
Play on: UNDER 6½ -115

FREE PLAY on Canadiens/Golden Knights under 6½ -115

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Kenny Walker

Oct 31 '19, 10:35 PM in 4h
NBA | Spurs vs Clippers
Play on: Spurs +5 -105 at Bovada

Free Pick on Spurs

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Jack Jones

Oct 31 '19, 10:35 PM in 4h
NBA | Spurs vs Clippers
Play on: Clippers -4½ -109 at GTBets

Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Los Angeles Clippers -4.5
We are getting the Clippers cheap at home tonight because they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. However, they rested Kawhi Leonard against the Jazz last night, so he will be fresh and ready to go against his former team here in the San Antonio Spurs. He wants to crush the Spurs every chance he gets.
The Clippers are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, so they aren’t affected by these back-to-backs as much as most teams would be. And only one player exceeded 30 minutes last night in Landry Shamet. The Clippers played 13 different players last night as it became a blowout late, so they didn’t have to play their best players too many minutes.
The Spurs are getting too much respect for their 3-0 start to the season. But all three wins came at home as this will be their first road game. And they are 0-3 ATS and easily could have lost all three games against mostly suspect competition. They only beat the Knicks 120-111 as 10.5-point favorites, barely beat the Wizards 124-122 as 11.5-point favorites, and beat the Blazers 113-110 as 6-point favorites. And keep in mind both the Wizards and Blazers were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, so both were favorable spots for the Spurs.
The Clippers are 30-16 ATS in their last 46 games as a favorite. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days’ rest. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five games off a loss. Bet the Clippers Thursday.

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Totals Guru

Oct 31 '19, 10:35 PM in 4h
NBA | Spurs vs Clippers
Play on: OVER 226 -109

Free Total Annihilator On Spurs vs Clippers over 226 -109

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Larry Ness

Oct 31 '19, 10:35 PM in 4h
NBA | Spurs vs Clippers
Play on: Clippers -5 -106 at pinnacle

My free play is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. The San Antonio Spurs are one of just two remaining unbeaten teams in the NBA at 3-0 but the Spurs have also opened 0-3 ATS (two wins by three points or less). The Spurs travel to Staples Center to take on the Clippers as the second-half on TNT's Thursday night doubleheader, playing away from home for the first time this season. The LA Clippers fell to 3-2 on the season by losing 110-96 last night in Salt Lake City to the Utah Jazz. Star forward Kawhi Leonard (27.0-6.5-7.5) was held out for rest on Wednesday and the Clippers' D had no answer for the Jazz, who made 55.0% from the floor, including 11 of 24 (45.8%) on threes. San Antonio is averaging 119.0 PPG (6th), led by four starters plus sixth-man White all averaging in double figures. Guard DeRozan (22.0 &5.0) leads the way, followed by PF Aldridge (21.3 & 8.0), SF Forbes (16.7 & 5.3), PG Murray (14.3-8.3-6.0) and sixth-man White (13.3). Trey Lyles starts at center and while he averages just PPG, he as grabbed at least seven rebounds in each game while averaging a team-high 8.7 per game. Pop-coached teams have typically been defined by their defensive prowess but that has NOT been the case so far, as the Spurs are allowing 114.3 PPG (21). Three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams was in the starting lineup against the Jazz for the first time this season, leading LA with 24 points. Williams (22.3 & 5.3 APG) and PF Harrell (20.5 & 6.8) are both averaging 20-plus points to join Leonard. Williams' start was just his 111th in 941 games over 15 NBA seasons and he is expected to come off the bench tonight. Forward JaMychal Green was the bench player with biggest production against the Jazz, as he was 8-of-11 from the floor, establishing season highs of 23 points and eight rebounds. LA is averaging 116.4 PPG (8th) but leads the NBA in shooting 51.1 percent from the floor, while ranking third in three-point shooting (39.7%). However, like the Spurs, the Clippers have not done a good job and the defensive end of the court, allowing 112.0 PPG (18th). Leonard spent seven seasons in San Antonio but his relationship with the organization deteriorated. He was traded in July 2018 to the Toronto Raptors in a deal that sent DeMar DeRozan to the Spurs, with Leonard leading the Raptors to their first NBA title last spring/summer. Meanwhile, the Spurs were eliminated in the first round by the Denver Nuggets. The Clippers are in action for the FOURTH time in the last six days and second in two nights. However, Leonard is well-rested and LA's bench ranks with the VERY best in the NBA with Williams and Harrell (see above) plus Green (12.0 & 4.0) and Harkless (5.8). Lay the points! Good luck...Larry