Saturday 1-4-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:18 AM

Betting Recap - Week 17
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 17 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 6-8-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-9
Against the Spread 6-8-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 11-4-1

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 145-88-1
Against the Spread 112-130-10

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 134-117-1
Against the Spread 106-136-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 126-124-2

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Dolphins (+17, ML +1000) at Patriots, 27-24
Jaguars (+5.5, ML +220) vs. Colts, 38-20
Bengals (+2.5, ML +120) vs. Browns, 33-23

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-14) at Panthers, 42-10
Cowboys (-12.5) vs. Redskins, 47-16
Titans (-9.5) at Texans, 35-14

Miami Not Nice

-- The Miami Dolphins headed up to Foxboro with nothing to loose, but head coach Brian Flores wanted to show mentor head coach Bill Belichick how far his team has come since an early-season beatdown in Miami. The New England Patriots headed came home from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Garden back in Week 2 with a 43-0 victory in tow, easily covering a 18-point number. As a 17-point favorite on Sunday, things didn't work out as well.

It was a costly loss for the Patriots, too, as the loss to the five-win Dolphins ended up costing them a bye. Now, the Patriots will have to play another member of the Belichick coaching tree, as Mike Vrabel will lead his Tennessee Titans into town next Saturday night for the primetime AFC Wild-Card Game battle. The Titans and Patriots didn't face each other during the regular season.

After opening the season 0-7 SU, the Dolphins finished up 5-4 SU in their final nine games, and 9-3 ATS across the final 12 games. After looking anything like an NFL-caliber team during the early going, the Dolphins showed no quick, dispelled any talk of tanking and they might have finished runner-up to the Atlanta Falcons for the unofficial 'No Quit' award.

Total Recall

-- Week 17 is usually a difficult slate of games to handicap, as so many teams elect to rest starters, either for the entire game, part of the game or they get wind of a score in another city and change their plan at the last minute.

Two teams who were not doing that gave us one of the most entertaining games of the 2019 regular season. The San Francisco 49ers-Seattle Seahawks (47) had an entertaining game which started out rather defensive. There were just 13 points on the board at halftime, all for the Niners. The Seahawks fought back and came within inches of a go-ahead touchdown in the final minute. They got a first and goal at the 1, but a delay of game penalty sent them backward, and they were scrambling for plays. A pass play to TE Jacob Hollister was snuffed out, literally, at the 1-inch line on fourth and goal. After a series of reviews, the Niners were award the ball with :09 left. Under bettors, and side bettors (-3.5) everywhere were screaming at NBC Sports commentator Al Michaels, as well as his cohort Cris Collinsworth, who suggested the Niners take a safety and/or run around in the end zone and take a knee. That would have flipped so many tickets. QB Jimmy Garoppolo had other ideas, rushing ahead of a QB sneak to run out the clock. Disaster averted. The game ended up a push, and San Francisco continued to cover.

The highest total on the board was the Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5). Things appeared to be headed for an easy over ticket, as the Bucs led 22-16 at halftime. However, we had a scoreless third quarter, and just six points from the Falcons in the fourth to force overtime. A field goal would have meant an 'under' result, but QB Jameis Winston was picked off by LB Deion Jones, who returned the easy pick-six for the win, and the 'over' ticket. It was a bad beat, or as big of a bad beat as the NFL card in Week 17 would offer.

The Sunday nighter was the only primetime game, and it was a push at most shops - so that's what we'll call it. For the season, the 'over' is just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead to Wild-Card Weekend

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

These teams will meet for the first time this season. Buffalo was an impressive 6-2 SU/6-1-1 ATS with the 'under' connecting in six of their eight games on the road.

For the Texans, they also rested their starters like the Bills in Week 17. Both teams are coming off of home losses, but it shouldn't affect either side. The Texans (-3, 42) are favored at home, but essentially Vegas is calling it a pick 'em, as generally the home side is given a three-point edge. The Texans ended the season a little on the banged up side, with their top skill position players battling nagging injuries. They'll have six days to rest and get ready. The 'under' was 6-3 in the final nine for Houston.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

The Titans were dominant down the stretch, looking like an NFL caliber team once QB Ryan Tannehill took the reins of the offense. Whether he is back, or the team elects to draft a quarterback, it's pretty clear the Marcus Mariota experience is over in Nashville. These teams also did not meet during the regular season. The Titans hit the 'over' in nine of their final 10 games after opening on a 5-1 'under' run. They were 5-3 ATS in the final eight road games, including 3-0 ATS with an 'over' in the final three away outings.

The Patriots (-5, 44) bring the experience into the Wild-Card Game, and they'll have a little anger after blowing a bye against the hapless Dolphins. The 'over' hit in their final three games, too.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

The Vikings pulled off the Minneapolis Miracle back on Jan. 14, 2018, when WR Stefon Diggs squirted free for a miracle touchdown on the final play to stun the Saints. Don't think the fans, and the Saints, haven't forgotten. Plus, the Saints have the bad juju from last season's pass-interference non-call against the Rams, which led to sweeping changes to the rules, allowing coaches' challenges.

These teams didn't face each other in the regular season. The Vikings were 4-2 SU/ATS in the final six road games for the Vikings. The Saints (-8, 47) roll in with three straight wins and covers to lock up a home game in the first round, and they're 11-3 ATS across the past 14 games overall.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

The only wild-card matchup which saw the teams meet in the regular season is this game. A costly loss at home to the 49ers cost the Seahawks a home playoff game, and now they must go cross-country to meet the four-seed Eagles. Seattle won 17-9 back on Nov. 24 after a bye, easily hitting the 'under' as 1.5-point favorites. They'll enter in a similar spot, favored by one with a total of 46.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:19 AM

NFL Wild Card betting opening odds and early action: Saints strong favorites vs Vikings
Patrick Everson

The NFL regular season gives way to the new year and the playoffs, starting with Wild Card weekend. We check in on the opening odds and early action for the four matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-8)

New Orleans gets a chance to avenge the Miracle in Minneapolis from the 2017-18 playoffs and is surely still hot about the noncall of pass interference that ended its 2018-19 playoff run. The Saints (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) closed with a 42-10 rout of Carolina as 13.5-point road favorites, finishing the regular season with the NFL’s best spread-covering mark.

Minnesota broke New Orleans’ heart on a crazy touchdown play in the divisional round two years ago. This year, the Vikings (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) are skidding into the postseason, losing their last two and three of their last five. In Week 17, locked into the sixth seed and resting many of their starters, the Vikes fell to Chicago 21-19 as 5-point home underdogs.

“It’s hard to trust Kirk Cousins in a big game, and we consider the Saints the best team in the NFC,” Murray said in assessing this contest, set for 1:05 p.m. ET Sunday. “The Saints will be in every moneyline parlay this weekend.”

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)

Seattle came mere inches short of nabbing the NFC’s No. 2 seed, a first-round bye and a home game in the divisional round. Instead, the Seahawks (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) fell to the fifth seed after losing to San Francisco 26-21 Sunday night as 3.5-point home underdogs. On fourth-and-goal in the waning seconds, Seattle came up a hair short of the end zone.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia won the NFC East and is the No. 4 seed despite having the worst record of all the NFC postseason qualifiers. In Week 17, the Eagles (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) assured their playoff spot with a 34-17 road victory over the New York Giants as 4-point favorites.

“We opened Philly -1, but flipped to Seahawks -1 already,” Murray said late Sunday night, shortly after The SuperBook posted the playoff lines. “This number may go higher due to the time slot (4:40 p.m. ET Sunday). The public will be on the Seahawks and a ton of parlays will close with Seahawks.”

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England needed only to beat lowly Miami on Sunday to nail down the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the AFC. But the Patriots (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) failed to do so, stunningly losing 27-24 on a last-minute touchdown as hefty 17.5-point home favorites, falling to the third seed.

Tennessee was in a win-and-you’re-in situation in Week 17, and fortunately, Houston – with the AFC South wrapped up – opted to rest its key players. The Titans (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) ultimately got bet up to 10-point road favorites and rolled 35-14 to take the sixth seed.

“There will be good two-way action on this game,” Murray said of the Saturday night Wild Card contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET. “Obviously, the public will support the Patriots as always, but I also think we will see money come in on the Titans, given how much New England has struggled on offense recently.”

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)

Houston won the AFC South and could’ve possibly moved from No. 4 to No. 3, but opted to rest DeShaun Watson and several others, playing it safe in Week 17. As such, the Texans (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) went off as 10-point home underdogs against Tennessee and got rolled 35-14.

No. 5 seed Buffalo was one of the bigger surprises of the season, going 10-6 SU (9-5-2 ATS), although Sean McDermott’s squad dropped its last two regular-season games. In Week 17 against the New York Jets, the Bills didn’t keep QB Josh Allen in long and mustered just two field goals in a 13-6 home loss catching 1.5 points.

“This will likely be the lowest-handle game of the weekend and probably not a big decision,” Murray said of the first Wild Card kickoff, at 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday. “There should be support for both teams. It’s hard to trust Josh Allen here, but it’s also hard to trust Bill O’Brien laying points. Flip a coin.”

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:20 AM

AFC Wild Card Notes

Buffalo at Houston

Saturday, Jan. 4 (ESPN-ABC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Bills Road Record: 6-2 SU, 6-0-2 ATS
Texans Home Record: 5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS

Opening Odds

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Houston -3 with a total of 39 ½. The overnight line has held steady while the total was pushed up to 41 ½.

Head-to-Head

Buffalo and Houston did not meet this season, as the Texans defeated the Bills, 20-13 at NRG Stadium in 2018, but failed to cash as 10-point favorites. Buffalo has dropped four of the past five meetings with Houston dating back to 2009, with three of those losses coming in the Lone Star State. These teams are hooking up in the playoffs for the first time as the last time Buffalo faced a Houston franchise in the postseason, it was the Oilers who blew a 35-3 advantage in a stunning 41-38 overtime defeat to the Bills in 1992. But the Oilers are now the Titans, so that doesn’t apply for this matchup.

Playoff Notes

Houston has claimed the AFC South title six times in the last nine seasons, as the Texans are 3-2 all-time in the Wild Card round. All five of those games have been played at home, but the Texans lost to the Colts last season in the opening round, 21-7. Houston has never reached an AFC Championship in its short history, but have scored 7 points total in its two losses in the Wild Card round in 2015 and 2018.

The Bills last won a playoff game in 1995 against the Dolphins in the Wild Card round, while their previous postseason appearance came in a 10-3 setback at Jacksonville in 2017. Buffalo captured four straight AFC titles from 1990-1993, but are 1-5 in the playoffs in the last 25 seasons.

Total Notes

The Bills were one of the top ‘under’ teams in the league this season by cashing the ‘under’ in 12 of 16 games. Buffalo yielded 17 points or fewer 10 times, including five times on the road. In all five opportunities as an away underdog, the Bills tallied 17 points or fewer, with its highest output in this role coming against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in a 26-15 triumph.

The Texans were a streaky team in the totals department this season. After eclipsing the ‘over’ in the season opener at New Orleans, Houston hit three consecutive ‘unders,’ followed by three straight ‘overs’, then four ‘unders’ in a row. The ‘over’ went 4-4 at NRG Stadium, although they finished the season with three consecutive ‘overs’ at home. Houston topped the 30-point mark only twice this season and not since a Week 5 victory at Kansas City, 31-24.

Tennessee at New England

Saturday, Jan. 4 (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Titans Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Patriots Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-4-1 ATS

Opening Odds

The SuperBook sent out New England -5 ½ and that opener has held overnight but the total has gone from 41 ½ to 43 ½.

Head-to-Head

The two teams did not meet this season as the Titans rolled the Patriots in Nashville, 34-10 as 6 ½-point home underdogs in 2018. That loss snapped a seven-game winning streak by New England over Tennessee dating back to 2003. The Titans have never won in Foxborough since relocating to Tennessee in 1997, with each of the past three losses coming by double-digits.

Playoff Notes

The Titans are back in the postseason for the first time since 2017 when they rallied to stun the Chiefs in the Wild Card round, 22-21. Tennessee was knocked out by New England in the divisional playoffs, 35-14 at Gillette Stadium, but the Titans own a 3-1 record in the Wild Card round since moving to Nashville from Houston.

For the first time since 2009, the Patriots are playing the first weekend of the playoffs after owning the bye for nine straight years. New England has won its first playoff game in each of the last eight seasons, while representing the AFC in the Super Bowl in four of the last five seasons. The Patriots are 9-0 in their last nine home playoff contests with the last loss coming to the Ravens in the 2012 AFC Championship.

Total Notes

The Titans started the season on a 5-1 run to the ‘under’ with Marcus Mariota as its starting quarterback. However, since Ryan Tannehill has taken control of this offense, the ‘over’ has cashed in nine of 10 games, including all four games played away from Nissan Stadium. In seven of Tannehill’s 10 starts, the Titans have scored 27 points or more, while allowing 21 points or fewer in three straight road contests.

The Patriots hit the ‘under in eight of the first 11 games of the season, but the ‘over’ has come through in four of the final five contests. The ‘over’ went 4-4 in eight games at Gillette Stadium, while giving up 17 points or less in six home contests before yielding 27 points to the Dolphins in the season finale. The offense posted 30 points or more in each of their first three home wins, but failed to put up more than 27 points in any of their last five contests at Foxborough.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:21 AM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Wild Card Weekend odds: Media could help move Minnesota spread
Jason Logan

With the spread at Saints -8, books will move fast through the dead numbers if money continues to show up on the home side. If you like the Vikes, you could see +9 before kickoff on Sunday.

With only four games on the board and the focus of the entire football world on the NFL Wild Card Weekend, the odds for the opening round of the playoffs have as much wiggle room as an “economy” seat on a discount airline.

That makes getting the best of the spread and total vital for your postseason betting opinions. Covers Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan sizes up the Wild Card lines and gives his best bets to make now and which ones you want to make later.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: BUFFALO BILLS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-3)

The Texans opened as field-goal favorites for this first-round matchup, enjoying a bit of bye week by resting starters in the season finale. Houston had the luxury of knowing it had nothing to play for once Kansas City won in the early kickoffs and rolled over for Tennessee in Week 17, with starters on the sideline.

The Bills also had little on the line when it lost to the Jets in Week 17, but still played some key players in the first half before yanking them and giving way to a loss. Buffalo hits the road for the Wild Card Weekend with three losses in its last four games but has been profitable as a road pup with a 4-0-2 ATS mark when getting the points as a visitor.

If you like Houston in this matchup, you will want to strike now at take the -3 before a nasty half-point hook shows up. Some books are already dealing Texans -3.5 but most have just tacked an extra five cents on to the vig, which would indicate a move to 3.5 is likely coming.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+8) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Books opened New Orleans as a 7.5-point home favorite for this Wild Card war with Minnesota and early money pounced on the Saints, pushing the spread to the dead number of -8 as of Monday morning.

New Orleans has looked flat-out dominant in recent weeks, outscoring its last three opponents by a combined score of 114-45. The Saints covered in all three of those matchups and could also have a bit of revenge in mind for Minnesota, given how the last postseason meeting between these two franchises finished. The media will play up the playoff rematch and the Over/Under on replays of the “Minneapolis Miracle” is at 100,000.

The Vikings also backed into the tournament on two straight losses (granted Week 17 was a giveaway) and left a bad taste in the mouths of bettors with a stinker against Green Bay in a must-win Week 16 contest. With the spread at Saints -8, books will move fast through the dead numbers if money continues to show up on the home side. If you like the Vikes, you could see +9 before kickoff on Sunday.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 43.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The total for this AFC Wild Card game opened as low as 41.5 and shot up as high as 44 points with early play on the Over. It would seem that initial action has faith in the Patriots offense finally showing up after laying dormant most of the season.

In a rare twist, it’s Ryan Tannehill and the Titans who swing the big stick on that side of the ball. Tennessee’s scoring has been transformative since going with the former Dolphins QB, who faces a familiar foe in the opening round of the postseason. However, the Titans’ best plan of attack should be RB Derrick Henry and plenty of him. That way they can control the clock and lower their risk of turning the ball over – something New England is very dependant upon.

Those books that did tick the total as high as 44 got instant buyback on the Under, so the 43.5 may be a good as it gets for those fans of the Under. While recent trends show the Titans and Pats riding respective runs for the Over, the backbone for both teams is defense. The weather looks to be cold and damp in Foxborough, with temperatures hovering around freezing Saturday night.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 46 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Seahawks and Eagles meet in the “Band-Aid Bowl” with both squads limping into the postseason. The theme song for this battle of the birds should be Mr. Mister’s airy 80’s hit “Broken Wings”, given the length of the injury reports.

Books opened this total at 46 points and while most are standing pat at that number (select books serving 45.5), some sharper markets are starting to discount the juice on the Over with money coming in on a lower-scoring finish. Seattle’s recent offensive efforts are playing into that lean, scoring only 21 points versus San Francisco in Week 17 and putting up just 13 points in a stunning loss to Arizona in Week 16.

These foes met in Philadelphia back in Week 12, with a 17-9 Seattle win staying well below the total of 45.5 points. If you fancy yourself a contrarian and like the Over, give this total some time to breathe. It should come down before those injury updates on Thursday and Friday.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:22 AM

141BUFFALO -142 HOUSTON
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games in the current season.

143TENNESSEE -144 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (11.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:24 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 4

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BUFFALO (10 - 6) at HOUSTON (10 - 6) - 1/4/2020, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games this season.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (9 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/4/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 123-158 ATS (-50.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-207 ATS (+42.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-207 ATS (+42.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 207-152 ATS (+39.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 199-152 ATS (+31.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 106-73 ATS (+25.7 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-89 ATS (+32.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-92 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-59 ATS (+26.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:25 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 4

Buffalo @ Houston

Game 141-142
January 4, 2020 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
132.066
Houston
131.142
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 1
30
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3); Under

Tennessee @ New England

Game 143-144
January 4, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
139.201
New England
134.604
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 4 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 5 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+5 1/2); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:26 AM

NFL

Wild Card Round

Last two seasons, underdogs are 7-0-1 ATS in this round of playoffs.

Saturday
Bills (10-6) @ Texans (10-6)—Buffalo is in playoffs for 2nd time in three years, but they lost last five playoff games- their last playoff win was in 1995. Texans are in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won a Wild Card game three years ago. Bills lost three of last four games overall, scoring 14.3 ppg, completing less than half their passes; they’re 5-3 SU on road TY, 4-1-1 ATS as a road underdog- they’re 7-0 SU scoring more than 17 points. Seven of their last nine games went under the total. Texans are 6-2 TY in games decided by 6 or fewer points; they’re 1-5 ATS as a home favorite. Six of their last nine games stayed under. Houston won four of last five series games; Buffalo lost its last three visits here, by 12-6-7 points.

Titans (9-7) @ Patriots (12-4)— New England is in Wild Card game for first time in ten years; they won AFC the last three years, played in AFC title game the last eight years. Patriots split their last eight games overall after an 8-0 start; they’re 0-3 allowing more than 17 points. NE is 4-4 ATS as a home favorite- four of their last five games went over. Patriots are -3 in turnovers the lat two games, after being +24 up to that point. Tennessee is 7-3 TY with Tannehill at QB; they won their last three road games, scoring 36 ppg. Titans are 5-3 SU on road TY; they’re 2-2 ATS as a road underdog. Eight of their last nine games went over. Tennessee is in playoffs for only 2nd time in last 11 years; they upset the Chiefs in Arrowhead in this round two years ago, then lost 35-14 here. NE won seven of last eight series games, but lost 34-10 in Nashville LY.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:27 AM

NFL

Wild Card Round

Trend Report

Saturday, January 4

Houston Texans
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 10 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Houston

New England Patriots
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games at home
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 10 games
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Tennessee is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing New England
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against New England

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:28 AM

Total Talk - WC Saturday
Chris David

Wild Card Total Betting History

Playing the ‘under’ on Wild Card weekend has been a money-making machine for bettors over the years, especially lately. The low side has gone 3-1 each of the last two postseasons and it’s on a 20-7-1 (74%) over the last seven years. If you go back to the 2004-05 playoffs, the ‘under’ is 38-21-1 (64%).

2018 Wild Card Results
Indianapolis 21 at Houston 7 - UNDER 49
Seattle 22 at Dallas 24 - OVER 43.5
L.A. Chargers 23 at Baltimore 17 - UNDER 42.5
Philadelphia 16 at Chicago 15 - UNDER 42

2017 Wild Card Results
Tennessee 22 at Kansas City 21 - UNDER 44
Atlanta 26 at L.A. Rams 13 - UNDER 48.5
Buffalo 10 at Jacksonville 3 - UNDER 40
Carolina 31 at New Orleans 26 - OVER 47.5

Will we finally see a ‘over’ barrage in the Wild Card round? That’s a hard question to answer but if there was a sign of change coming, Week 17 did watch the high side go 12-3-1 and that was eye-opening considering the last week of the season has always trended to ‘under’ tickets.

Best Bet Selections

Eleven games left in the NFL season and I’m happy to write the “Total Talk” pieces again for the playoffs. For those of you following along to my “Best Bet” selections on the Bet and Collect Podcast this season, thanks for the support and hope you cashed tickets. The 17-week record finished at 29-22 (57%) and for the postseason, I’m going to provide my selections here plus you can listen to the analysis every weekend as well.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Buffalo at Houston (ESPN, 4:35 p.m. ET)

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this game at 39 ½ and it’s been pushed up to 43 as of Tuesday. Houston has been installed as the short home favorite (-2 ½) and based on that number, oddsmakers are expecting a 23-20 win for the Texans. The number getting juiced up does look like a headscratcher on paper, knowing Buffalo has watched the ‘under’ go 12-4 this season with identical 6-2 marks coming at both home and on the road. Houston has also leaned to the ‘under’ (9-7) and that could easily be 10-6 if Titans running back Derrick Henry didn’t scamper for the late score last week.

Looking at those numbers, the obvious lean would be to a low-scoring match up on Saturday but I can see why the number was nudged up. Including the meaningless loss to Tennessee in Week 17, the Texans went 3-3 against playoff teams this season and they averaged 27.6 points per game in the wins while only scoring 16.3 PPG in the losses. We can toss out the statistics from last Sunday but it’s hard to forget the 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore on Nov. 17. Including that result, the Texans have allowed 28.3 PPG against playoff teams and while that number drops to 22.3 PPG in the three wins, it’s still not great.

Can Buffalo get anywhere near that average? While the Bills defense (15.6 PPG) has been lights out on the road, the same can’t be said for the offense (21.5 PPG). Overall, the Bills schedule was very weak and they only faced five playoff teams and a 1-4 record certainly doesn’t offer up much confidence. If you want to rationalize to the Bills at all, they did go 1-1 on the road versus playoff teams but the offense only mustered up 15.5 PPG versus the Titans (W 14-7) and Patriots (L 17-24).

Houston defeated Buffalo 20-13 in the 2018 regular season at home and the ‘under’ (40 ½) was never in doubt. Including that result, the ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run in this series.

The Bills haven’t had much postseason history, their last trip coming in the 2017 season and that ended with a 10-3 loss at Jacksonville in the Wild Card round. Houston owns a 3-5 all-time record, and that includes a 3-2 mark at NRG Stadium. The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in those games. When Houston wins at home in the playoffs, it’s held opponents to 14, 13 and 10 points. When it loses, it’s allowed 21 and 30 while only scoring seven points in those games. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson wasn’t sharp in last year’s Wild Card 21-7 loss to Indianapolis at home.

Fearless Prediction

I often tell myself not to “overthink it” and I believe that’s the case here. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Buffalo go into Houston and win the game, I don’t believe second-year QB Josh Allen will be the reason if that happens. The Bills Team Total Under (20) looks like a solid lean knowing they’ve only cracked that number five times in their last 16 road games and never against a team with a winning record. I think we’re looking at a 21-16, 20-13 outcome with Houston coming out on top.

Tennessee at New England (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The late-night matchup on Saturday also saw upward steam as the total was sent out at 41 ½ and the number is up to 44. It’s going to be weird to see New England playing in the Wild Card round, something it hasn’t done since the 2009 playoffs. For those who remember, the Patriots were embarrassed 33-14 at Foxboro by the Ravens as running back Ray Rice dominated for Baltimore.

Fast forward to this matchup and it appears that bettors are expecting another upset in New England, with the early action going to Tennessee (+5 ½ to +4 ½). Since that loss to the Ravens, the Patriots have gone 12-2 at Gillette Stadium in the playoffs but plenty of those victories came on the shoulders of QB Tom Brady. If you’ve watched New England play this season, you’re well aware that the offense is nowhere near previous squads. The Patriots are ranked seventh in scoring offense (26.2 PPG) but the production has dropped a bit at home (25.2 PPG).

Defensively the unit only allowed 14.1 PPG albeit against a strength of schedule that was tied for second to last in the NFL. When facing playoff opponents, New England went 3-3 and the defense was great in the wins (12.3 PPG) but humbled in the losses (29.3 PPG). The ‘under’ was 9-7 on the season. The Titans defense (20.7 PPG) wasn’t on the same level as New England but it was sneaky good this season and it played a tougher scheduled (8th). Also, the unit traveled well and only allowed 17.6 PPG outside of Nashville. Tennessee was a clear-cut ‘under’ team at the beginning of the season, with the low side cashing in five of their first six games. Then, QB Marcus Mariota was benched for Ryan Tannehill and the Titans averaged 27.6 PPG compared to 16.3 PPG with Mariota. That production led to a 9-1 ‘over’ mark down the stretch and that includes the aforementioned lucky ticket last week in Houston.

It’s nice to see Tannehill getting some recognition but I still have my reservations on him and the Titans defense too. Tennessee only faced four playoff teams with him under center and they went 2-2, which includes Houston laying down last week. A 35-32 home win over Kansas City in Week 10 was surprising for the Titans, especially since the Chiefs let up the box score with 530 total yards. Including the Week 5 outcome to the Bills (L 7-14) at home, the Titans were 2-3 overall against playoff squads and the ‘under’ went 3-2 in those games.

These teams have met twice in the last three seasons. Tennessee stomped New England 34-10 in the 2018 regular season at home and the ‘under’ (46 ½) connected. This was a statement win for Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who helped the Patriots win three Super Bowls playing linebacker for Bill Belichick. The pair also met in the 2017 playoffs and New England blasted Tennessee 35-14 as the ‘over’ cashed late with a meaningless touchdown by the Titans. Prior to that results, the Titans saw the ‘under’ cash in their previous five postseason games – dating back to 2004 though.

Fearless Prediction

The question for me in this game - Can you back Tannehill in his first career playoff spot at Foxboro? During his tenure with Miami, he went 0-5 at Gillette Stadium while the Dolphins only averaged 11.6 PPG in the losses. All the blame can’t be placed on him, but his 4-10 touchdown-interception ratio didn’t help the cause. Fortunately for Tannehill, this Titans team has playmakers and I believe the Tennessee Team Total Over (19 ½) is a strong look. I also believe New England wins this game and that will have me leaning to the Over (44) in the game as well. I’ll call it 26-23 for the home team.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:29 AM

by: Josh Inglis

PLAYOFFS’ WORST OFFENSES

The Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Redskins, Dolphins (twice), Cowboys, Broncos and Steeler: that’s the list of teams the Bills have beaten this year. The best team and only playoff team on that list are the 9-7 Titans who were quaterbacked by Marcus Mariota back in Week 5. This week, the Buffalo’s 22nd-ranked offense heads to Houston to take on a Texans team who has the next worst DVOA offense (17th) out of the 12 playoff teams.

The Bills’ team total sits at 19.5 (-134) and will likely move up past the key number of 20.5 as the total continues to rise after opening at 39.5. Buffalo finished 4-4 down the stretch and hasn't topped 20 points since Thanksgiving.

The Houston offense hasn’t exactly been turning heads of late as well. Over the last three weeks, Deshaun Watson’s offense is averaging just 301 yards of offense per game which is the 24th-most over that stretch. Having their No. 1 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins shadowed by Buffalo corner Tre’Davious White could also mitigate the offense’s big-play ability.

We are going to wait to see if the Bills’ team total moves to 20.5 and will buy on the bigger number. However, we love the way the total is moving and are taking the Under 43.5. We might even buy another share down if Houston receiver WIll Fuller can’t suit up or may be limited.

HENRY TO SEND PATS PACKING

Titans running back Derrick Henry is a 250-pound truck that is capable of taking Tennessee to the divisional round. The big back has been an absolute terror against Top-10 teams this year per TeamRanking.com. Henry is averaging 144 yards per game rushing against the league’s best and faces a New England defense that is allowing 4.2 yards per carry (14th) on the year.

Henry’s rushing total sits at 90.5 yards which he has gone Over in five of his last six games. A big reason for his production is just sheer volume. Henry led the league at 20.5 rushes per game but saw nearly 24 totes a game over the last month. The Patriots have only faced three RBs who carried 20 or more times this year: Joe Mixon 25-136, Ezekiel Elliott 21-86 and Nick Chubb 20-131.

If the Titans have faith in their running game against New England and let Henry wear down the defense with 20-plus rushes, the 90.5 yard total is a reasonable play. Take the Over.

SCOTT OFF THE PRESS

The Seattle Seahawks’ rush defense is limping into the playoffs having giving up on average of 172 rushing yards per game over the final three matches of the year which works out 5.7 yards per carry. They ranked 26th in DVOA rush defense and will have to deal with Philadelphia’s impressive offensive line who aided Boston Scott in his three rushing touchdowns and Miles Sanders to 5.8 ypc before exiting with an injury last week.

There is some uncertainty with the Eagles’ backfield heading into Sunday’s game, but it is a profitable situation to monitor as Seattle has allowed the second-most road rushing TDs in the league at 1.5 per game. Sanders is dealing with a “low-grade ankle sprain” and is considered day-to-day. Jordan Howard came back to the lineup last week and logged just one snap and may not be close to 100 percent.

If we had to pick a side, our money would be on Boston Scott especially after a trio of TDs last week. He proved he could get it done in the red zone taking three of his four RZ carries to the house. We are monitoring the situation, but are willing to put some money on Scott to score even if Sanders and Howard are part of the game plan — but likely limited.

HAND OF GOEDERT

Zach Ertz sounds like he won’t get any practice in this week as he tries to get back on the field while dealing with rib and kidney issues. Even if the star tight end does suit up, it will most likely be in a limited fashion meaning Dallas Goedert will be the man again against the Seahawks.

Goedert has seen 22 targets over the last two weeks and should be the focal point of the passing offense against the Seahawks. Seattle let 49ers TE George Kittle put up 86 yards on seven grabs last week and is averaging 67.7 yards to opposing TEs (3rd-most).

Goedert’s markets aren’t open yet as books are waiting to see what happens with all the injuries the Eagles are dealing with. But knowing what our limit is total-wise before the market is set is a valuable tool we can use. We are taking the Over on Goedert’s receiving total on any number below 72 yards as Carson Wentz is averaging 43 passes a game over the last four games.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:30 AM

by: Josh Inglis

SINGLING OUT SINGLETARY

Houston has the worst DVOA defense (26th) in the playoffs. Their 26th-ranked pass defense shouldn’t be overmatched versus Buffalo’s 23rd-ranked pass offense, but their rush defense that allowed 171 yards on the ground per game over the final weeks could get exposed to the Bills’ rushing game and more specifically Devin Singletary.

In Weeks 9 through 16, the rookie running back averaged 16.5 carries for 79.6 yards. Singletary could be in for a big game as his opponent is allowing running backs to rush for 5.8 yards per carry which is the second-most ypc over that stretch.

With the inconsistencies of Buffalo’s passing game, its best route to the Divisional round is through its ground game. We still don’t like the Bills running up the score, but they certainly can find success on the ground. Take the Over on Singletary’s rushing total of 69.5 yards.

LIBERTY BELL SACK SQUAD

Nine of the 12 teams in the playoffs finished in the Top-15 in sacks per game with only Seattle, Houston and Baltimore finishing in the bottom half. Of those nine, six finished inside the Top-10 over the final weeks (MIN, GB, NO, KC, TEN and PHI). We could be seeing a fair share of sacks in the Wild Card games especially in Philadelphia where the Seahawks are allowing 3.9 sacks on the road this year.

Russell Wilson is playing behind an offensive line that has four members on the I.R. and its starting left tackle Duane Brown is likely out for Sunday’s game. The Philly D-line looked great at creating pressure last week in New York as the Eagles sacked Daniel Jones four times and forced two fumbles.

Carson Wentz has played admirably with his group of rag-tag receivers, but Wentz can get in trouble waiting for his practice-squad receivers to get open. In his last five home games, the Eagles QB has been sacked 16 times. Having injured running backs trying to pick up their pass-pro assignments won’t help his cause either.

We are putting our 2020 dollars on the Over 5.5 sacks in this Sunday evening tilt.

THOMAS THE CATCH ENGINE

The Minnesota Vikings secondary will have its hands full in dealing with Saints WR Michael Thomas. Thomas led the league in receiving yards (1,725) and set an NFL record with 149 receptions. On Sunday, the Saints receiver will face a Minnesota defense that is allowing 77.3 yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs — the 7th-most in the league.

Through four career playoff games, Thomas is averaging nearly eight catches for 106 yards and topped 130 yards twice. At home this year, he is putting up a league best 128 yards on 11 catches.

Minnesota gave up a 13-116 to Davante Adams in Week 16 and a 9-99 to Keenan Allen the week before. We have no problem taking the Over on Thomas’ reception total of 9.5 as the receiver has reached 10 grabs in seven of eight home games this year.

INDOOR INHABITANTS

The New Orleans Saints have scored the most first-half points over the last three weeks and are putting up over 14 points in the first 30 at home this year. Since Week 13, New Orleans’ first-half totals have been 38, 24, 20, 55 and 26 points as its defense gives up 11.1 points in the first two quarters at home.

Minnesota has been consistent in the first half, putting up 14 points a game at home and on the road. They are 2-2 O/U first-half totals of 24 or more over the last four games (not including Week 17).

Helping these teams hit the Over are their abilities to keep drives alive. New Orleans is converting 48 percent of its third downs at home (3rd) while Minnesots is converting 45 percent of third downs on the road (6th).

If you’re looking for an early play for this Sunday afternoon tilt, think about taking the 1H Over 24 as both teams are quite comfortable putting up points indoors.

**rocky57** · 01-04-2020, 08:53 AM

Big Ray Sports (Spooky Express) - CFB Comp Play - Southern Mississippi/Tulane Over 56

**rocky57** · 01-04-2020, 08:55 AM

Earl's Platinum Plays (Spooky Express) - NBA Comp Play - Oklahoma City Thunder -6

Saturday 1-4-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 1-4-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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