Wednesday 8/19/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 06:54 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 8/19/20

August 19, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.

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RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: X
Use: No play/Pass

Forecast: The first race is carded for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post 1:21 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Ruby Stiletto; 4-Sister Kew

Forecast: A couple of intriguing first-timers comprise the main contention in this juvenile sprint for New York-bred fillies. Siesta Kew has been doing some good work over the Belmont Park training track for M. Maker, showing a recent pair of fast four-furlong gate drills including a bullet :48 flat (fastest of 39) and a :47 3/5 (second fastest of 63) that probably makes her the one to beat. From the first crop of the promising Uncle Mo stallion Outwork, she lands the barn’s “go to” rider I. Ortiz, Jr. and is listed at 3-1 on the morning line. Ruby Stiletto is a quick-actioned, smallish filly by Maclean’s Music, and while there’s not much to her she appears to have the kind of speed that makes her dangerous first time out. The barn doesn’t often win with debut runners but at 9/5 on the morning line she’s a logical contender in a field that just drew six runners. Preference on top goes to Siesta Kew but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: A-
Single: 1-Ingrassia

Forecast: Ingrassia has trained like an exciting prospect for C. Brown, looking very much like a filly with stakes potential. A long-striding, athletic daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, she has handled her work mates with ease, strength, and power, and looks plenty fit to win first time out in this two-turn maiden juvenile grass affair. She might be a short price worth taking, though at 7/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she’ll likely not offer much wagering value other than as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 2:29 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Majid; 2-Hoffenheim; 4-Scarf It Down

Forecast: Hoffenheim is listed as the 7/5 morning line favorite in this $12,500 claimer over a distance of ground, and while her certainly looks like the favorite on paper he’s hardly one to trust. You have to go back more than two years to find his last win and though dropping sharply in class to his lowest level ever the ex-classer in W. Potts’ barn was a non-competitive seventh of eight, beaten 17 lengths, over this track and distance last month. Perhaps the trainer change and the easier company will wake him up. Majid represents inside speed and will take this field as far as he can. Winner of the Easy Goer S. last year, the son of Shackleford had faltered badly in five consecutive outings before being stopped on in February, but after a six month vacation and severe drop in class for a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners he has to be considered dangerous under I. Ortiz, Jr. Scarf It Down, a two-time winner at Saratoga, was awful last time out when virtually eased in a $16,000 seller last time out but his sharp runner-up two runs back at this level with a decent speed figure puts him in the hunt. We’re not sure which version we’ll see today. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 5: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1a-Zero Gravity; 5-McErin; 8-Financial System

Forecast: Here’s a contentious claimer for $40,000 claimers on grass that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Financial System just won a $50,000 affair here last month and is dropping off that victory, not a healthy sign, but if he has one good one left he’ll be tough once again. The 6-year-old gelding has had just 10 career starts (winning five), so the connections obviously won’t mind losing him while perhaps looking ahead to reinvesting in next month’s yearling sales. Never worse than second in three starts over the local lawn, the son of Twirling Candy is a versatile sort that can win on the lead or from a stalking position, so regular rider J. Castellano can play it by ear. Zero Gravity, drawn next door on the far outside, makes his first start on the drop after being haltered for $50,000 in the same race ‘Systems exits, and while he was non-competitive in that race with a less-than-ideal trip the son of Orb could be capable of bouncing back for a barn that has excellent stats (23% with a flat-bet profit) with the first-off-the-claim angle. He’ll be running on late. McErin is the likely pace-setter and could get brave if not pressured early. The T. Pletcher-trained gelding is an ex-J. Servis runner that hasn’t done much since switching barns, but after a bit of freshening he’s not being dropped in class in a sign of confidence and we can envision a bounce-back performance with the return to grass and the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr.
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RACE 6: Post 3:37 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-In Front; 4-Joyous Times

Forecast: Six of the eight projected starters in this first-level allowance inner turf miler for fillies and mares exit the same race, a July 23 affair in which the entire field finished in a heap. Joyous Times finished second in that race when being nailed close home after pressing the pace 1-off-the-rail every step of the way. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy may encounter a similar type of trip today if In Front, drawn just inside of her, is committed to a front-running strategy, but if rating tactics are employed on that filly ‘Sea could find herself as the controlling speed. In Front just broke her maiden over this course and distance last month with a good number, and with another forward move she could be dangerous right back. The daughter of War Front is lightly raced and may have a bit more upside than most of the others. In a race in which nothing would surprise us, we’ll try to survive and advance using just these two, but the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows.
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RACE 7: Post 4:12 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Golani Brigade; 5-Quickflash

Forecast: Golani Brigade was fairly impressive breaking his maiden over this track and distance more than a year ago but then was sent home. He reappears in this first-level allowance extended sprint for state-bred older horses and can win if he returns as well as he left. The work tab looks very good (two successive bullet half mile drills, including a :47.4b, fastest of 30 here 12 days ago) and the C. Brown barn has superior stats with layoff runners (29% with a large sample) so let’s assume this Maclean’s Music gelding is fit and ready. J. Castellano, who rode him in both of his career starts, stays aboard. Quickflash has improving speed figures and earned a career top number last time out when a solid third at this level in early July at Belmont Park. The Flashback gelding has never finished off the board in six career starts and has the proper stalking style for this seven furlong trip. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Golani Brigade.
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RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Tobys Heart; 8-Amanzi Yimpilo

Forecast: Despite a slow start, Tobys Heart ran away and hid in her debut at Churchill Downs in early June, earning a huge speed figure that makes her odds-on to score again in this year’s edition of the Bolton Landing S. for juvenile fillies sprinting on grass. The daughter of Jack Milton has been kept on edge in the interim with a steady series of drills and ships in from Kentucky looking to verify that extremely favorable initial impression. She’ll be a single on many rolling exotic tickets, but we’ll have a saver or two including Amanzi Yimpilo, a clever winner of her debut at Gulfstream Park in a visually pleasing performance that came up light in the speed figure department. She’s 8-1 on the morning, continues to impress in the a.m. for W. Ward, and may be capable of producing a significant forward move.
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RACE 9: Post 5:20 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Al’s Gal; 8-Women Not Easy

Forecast: The nightcap is an inner turf maiden claiming miler for $40,000 fillies and mares. Big Al’s Great has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern, lands the good rail, and projects to enjoy a ground-saving, pace pressing trip for a barn that is superb (28%) with this angle. J. Rosario stays aboard the daughter of Al Khali, who shouldn’t have any difficulty with the added distance. There’s value here at 5-1 on the morning line if you can get it. We’ll also toss in for protection Women Not Easy, fourth with a rough trip in a similar affair at Belmont Park last month after a good runner-up effort with a career top speed figure two races back. She’ll likely to be on or near the lead throughout.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 06:58 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #4

#5 Street Trust	Closer exits a distant 5th against eons better last time, catches a pair of favorites who are not only tough to trust, but sketchy at the trip, and this one will be run on; mows them down late.
#6 Ccurlin Grey	Fellow stretch runner us anther who has been in against good fields, and a repeat of the 2nd over the track/distance last time makes him a player here, albeit at underlaid odds; must-use.
#2 Hoffenheim	Strong ML favorite drops in class but didn't run an inch last time over the track/distance, so why he's 7-5 here off that is a guess, especially since his best have been at one-turn; no thanks.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 5, and the race flow and distance might be too, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win would add plenty of value to both sequences, and with some of the perceived horses to beat being tough to trust, he's got every right to make a big dent in the lane.

Saratoga - Race #5

#3 Willing to Speed	Price player moved forward second-off the break last time, drew perfectly, and should trip out just off what looks like an abundance of speed; upset special.
#8 Financial System	Stiff ML favorite was all-out to win for 50k last time and now drops, and while a repeat will make him tough, he'll be way overbet for Brown; backwheel time.
#1a Zero Gravity	Kantarmaci claim (23%) was just a close 7th behind the chalk for Maker, and while moving up off that barn isn't easy, there's solid back form here; worth a look.
Race Summary	That 12-1 ML on the pick seems mighty robust, but if they pound the 8 again (he was 9-5 last time), just maybe you sneak out 8-1 on a runner who looks to be coming up to a big race, and drew a lot better than the only mountain he has to climb, so play him in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4, and to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since budget players will be singling 'System, even though the fact he drops off a strong win is a real warning signal.

Saratoga - Race #6

#6 Kelleycanrun	Tagg runner certainly needed her last, when she was a close 6th off a November break behind several here, and that was a career-best too, so wit expected improvement, any not having to spot any recency to these this time, she has a chance to surprise; call in a scramble.
#7 Kitten by the Sea	Pletcher miss is like the pick, in that she too goes second-off the layoff, and therefore that neck 3rd, while ahead of 'Kelley, means she delivered a biggie off the Pletcher claim, though the fact he's more potent off the break says she may not improve as much here; second-best.
#9 Balon Rose	Underachiever for Brown was 4th between the top-2 last time, so she figures, but this miss just has never inspired or run to what many think, for some reason, is a world of promise, so sure, she's a player here, but there's no reason to take another short price; underneath only.
Race Summary	That 10-1 ML on the pick seems like a ton of value on a gal who was less than 2 lengths behind most of the favorite here, while off an eight-month layoff, so she has to be tighter here, which means you can play her in all the slots, and especially to end the early Pk5/Pk4, and in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, as she looks ready for a big run, yet might fall completely through the wagering crack as well, which means a win would go a long way in blowing up all four sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 06:59 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #2

#3 Dirt Road Princess	She was 18/1 with better last time out, and there is some hope for improvement on the drop while making this second start off the layoff. Most of that form from last year would do.
#5 Broke Financing	Doesn't have a huge finishing kick, but she has the ability to get herself into a good spot turning for home, and from there she may be able to hang around underneath.
#1 Yankee Rose	Pace is always hit or miss late, and much of her trip tonight will depend on how fast the stretchout mare drawn widest wants to go in the early stages. Vulnerable.
Race Summary	Dirt Road Princess needs a form reversal, but she makes her second start off the layoff after failing to threaten with better last out.

Mountaineer - Race #3

#1 Tricky Tune	Won't be any kind of price here, but that pace from the inside will make her dangerous out of the gate here, and the local debut was pretty solid when facing better.
#3 Beautiful B	Reliable turfer has some pace that can get her in the mix early, and she's the most likely upsetter in this spot with a trip near the top choice throughout.
#5 Twisted Emotions	Drops in class with even, one-paced kind of form, and that might be good enough to get her in the mix for a piece. Think she's a bit of a reach on top.
Race Summary	Tricky Tune can control the splits from the fence, and she took to the local turf course nicely when finishing second with an allowance group. Something similar should do the job today.

Mountaineer - Race #4

#9 Roar of Cali	Debuter brings some forward-looking drills to this one while meeting a suspect group of horses who have run already.
#5 I'm Money	Decent debut effort can set him up for something better this time around, as he showed some chasing pace and may be able to sustain that better today.
#4 New York One	Top choice's stablemate will add blinkers after a mostly even kind of chasing run last time out, and he might appreciate the move in with the local crew.
Race Summary	Roar of Cali can be ready to roll at first asking, and he draws wide to avoid some early hassles at the break. He won't have to be a star to win what feels like a somewhat modest race for the level.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 07:00 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #4

#6 HOW ABOUT MURPH	Suicide duel with winner took its toll but she held second.
#2 ALWAYS ARTISTIC	Steady check-getter should sit ideal trip at a good price.
#8 SHE’S A BILLIONAIR	Got up for third behind ‘Murph’ in first start off 5-month layoff.
Race Summary	How About Murph dueled inside of the 2-to-5 favorite through a 1:22.1 third quarter and went down fighting. She rallied to win her prior start, so ride the streak. Play 6-2, 6-3 and 6-8 exactas.

The Meadows - Race #12

#7 INTENSE LOVER	Better than latest appears, good value play in wide-open race.
#2 BOTTLE OF RED	Has speed and inner post draw, starts at fifth different track in a row.
#5 JUS WANNA FEEL	Finished ahead of several of these but she’s 1-53 since 2019.
Race Summary	Intense Lover, a lightly-raced 6-year-old, was trapped with run in the third quarter and finished a willing fourth in a fast race. Play 7-2 and 7-5 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #1

#4 ZIP ZIP WILL	Picked up cover two back, bid into far turn, leveled off.
#2 EMERALD MISS	Failed on lead at 2-to-5 odds, steps up in class.
#1 S R WILLPOWER	Continues to pile up the checks, draws rail again.
Race Summary	Zip Zip Will made up ground from the second tier last week and loomed 3-wide on the final turn two back before he paced evenly in the stretch. He draws better post and should be in the winning hunt in this field. Play 4-1 and 4-2 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 07:02 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #6

#4 West Sider	Lost by a neck in a claiming race last time and was taken out of there by the Garcia barn; finished well despite the loss and is game enough to take them to the wire.
#5 Day Trip	Battled throughout and lost by a length; was a stablemate of the top choice here and can battle with that one late.
#6 Logical Myth	Make a good move and finished third last time out in his first for the Sharp stable; might improve in his second for the new connections.
Race Summary	West Sider narrowly lost last time and Garcia has done well, hitting 23 percent in the current meet; can be close-up throughout and can respond in his first for the new barn.

Indiana Grand - Race #8

#3 Girlysgotthelooks	Didn't fire in her first, which came against opening company going five furlongs; goes to state-bred company and stretches out. Has worked well since her debut and can show significant improvement.
#4 Little Maemi	Missed by a nose last time, steps up in class and should have no problem in moving over to the turf in her current form.
#8 Brewsky	Has been on the front end in her last three and last for third in two of those; can be close-up from the start and has a chance to improve on turf.
Race Summary	Girlsgotthelooks didn't do much in her first one, but she has trained well after that and stretches out and moved to the grass. Likely to be a factor from the start.

Indiana Grand - Race #9

#10 Ajk Enthusiasm	Has been with good company and was fifth in a trial last out; can get a clean trip on the outside and should be a more than fair price.
#3 One Stormin Man	Has been with good company and most recently was fifth in a trial; fits well and can be a major player.
#6 Gg Kyleighs Storm	Was fourth last time out and her best can earn her a major slice of the pie.
Race Summary	Ajk Enthusiasm makes just his fourth career start and faces a field in which most have work a long time on getting the first career win. Possible upsetter.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 09:00 AM

Stephen DeAngelo

Ho-hum, another free winner Tuesday, as the Twins and Brewers went 12 innings and yet still stayed under the total. Not only is that three straight MLB comp-play winners, but I remain on a torrid 21-11 free-play run, going 10-4 with the last 14 and 4-1 with the last five!

Back to the NBA bubble in Orlando for Wednesday’s freebie, as I’ll lay the points with the Clippers in Game 2 of their opening-round playoff series against Dallas.

I know the Mavericks got completely screwed with that ridiculous ejection of Kristaps Porzingis early in the third quarter of Game 1 on Tuesday. It likely cost Dallas the game: The Mavs were leading 71-66, thanks in large part to Porzingis, who had 14 points and six rebounds in 20 minutes. After Porzingis was booted, Dallas got outscored 22-11 over the rest of the third quarter as the Clippers took control on their way to a 118-110 victory as a 6½-point favorite.

But here’s what else I know: Despite its play in the first 2½ quarters of Game 1, Dallas simply does not match up well with LA. Going back to February 2019, the Clippers have won and covered five straight meetings, posting an average victory margin of exactly 10 points per game.

The Mavs’ problem against LA (and, really, every opponent)? Defense, or a lack thereof. Including Tuesday’s defeat, Dallas has given up 118, 126, 110, 114 and 121 points during its five-game losing skid to Los Angeles (average of 117.8 ppg). And that defense has been completely nonexistent since arriving in Orlando — the Mavs have allowed at least 110 points all nine games, including 118 or more six times. Average points allowed in the bubble: 125.8!!

The Clippers enter Game 2 having won and covered three in a row and five of their last six, while Dallas is 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in Orlando, including three straight losses and non-covers. Look for both teams to continue those trends tonight.

4* LA CLIPPERS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 09:01 AM

Bob Valentino

I hate to keep going back to the same well for water, but when the water tastes as good as it has in this Montreal-Philadelphia series, might as well go back for one more drink!

Another game, another Under on Tuesday as Carter Hart made 29 more saves and shut out the Canadiens for a second straight game.

That makes 3 straight games in which we have seen one team held scoreless. It also puts the Under at 4-0 in the 4 games now recorded in the record books.

The Flyers are now Under the total in 10 straight games dating back to the pre-COVID work stoppage.

The Habs Under run has now reached 5 in a row. Montreal is also Under in 9 of their last 11 games since March.

It's a back-to-back situation, but I am still going to look for the goals to be hard to come by as they have through the 4 games played.

The Under is 4-0, let's run it to 5-0.

4* MONTREAL-PHILADELPHIA UNDER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 09:02 AM

NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PICKS
Diamondbacks @ Athletics
TIME: 9:40 PM EST
PICK: UNDER 8.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 09:05 AM

Doc's Picks

MLB Seattle under 9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 09:05 AM

Profit On Sports

NBA Denver -4.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 09:05 AM

Elite Sports Picks

MLB Baltimore over 10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 09:06 AM

Insider Sports Report

NBA Denver over 217

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 09:06 AM

The Sports Consensus

MLB Miami under 7.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-19-2020, 09:07 AM

Top Rank Sports Picks

MLB Atlanta -130

Wednesday 8/19/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 8/19/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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