Thursday 8/20/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 06:49 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #2

#2 Tonal Verse	Price player for Motion has yet to run two turns on a fast main track but is sure bred for it, catches a pair of favorites who really aren't all that much faster than her to begin with, and goes for a Motion barn that excels in going long; upset special.
#6 Thankful	Pletcher miss is bred for the extra turn she gets today on the main track, and the distant 2nd last time was a lot better than her turf bow, but this wide draw did her no favors, plus she'll be a big underlay at the windows; plenty scary, but no lock.
#1 Simply Sweet	Dicey ML favorite did draw best, and mom was a BC Juvenile fillies winner too, but she's hasn't been too hot as a broodmare, and that distant 4th sprinting on debut wasn't much, so sure, she'll move up, but 8-5 is way too low; trying to beat.
Race Summary	That 6-1 ML on the pick, when viewed in light of who she meets and what she they have done, makes her very appealing, especially since you know she should like this trip, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, as budget players will be focusing on the two favorites, which means a win by the pick, and it's not that far-fetched, will knock a lot of tickets out right off the bat.

Saratoga - Race #5

#3 Mosienko	Rice claim (23%) wheels back on six days rest for a barn that is a huge 7-for-20 (35%) with this angle, and goes from a 2nd against older for 14k into a 20k spot for only 3yos; look out.
#1 Customerexperience	Major player was just 3rd for 25k against 3yos only and now goes off the Rodriguez claim (19%) and lures Irad, so she certainly figures, though her lack of speed is a worry; second-best.
#6 Leaveuwithasmile	ML favorite just wired the 1 and in fast time and now goes off the Gargan claim, a crazy 11-for-22 angle, though there is other speed here, and she'll be overbet; may come unglued late.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 3, and Rice plays this game as good, if not better, than anyone, so the fact she wheels this one back on short rest is a big positive, so play her to win and place, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4, and to kick off the late Pk5 as well, as the 6 will be singled on a lot of tickets, but there's reason to think she's not as strong a favorite as the toteboard might suggest.

Saratoga - Race #7

#5 Binkster	Veteran pace presser drew perfectly for his style, caught a potential freak last time but held well to be 2nd, and should be in the perfect spot off the far turn, at fair value too; upset special.
#2 Stan the Man	Deserving heavy favorite is the class here and the 2nd in the Bel GII last time was strong, though his margin for error is a slim one, and the pick will press him the entire way; backwheel time.
#1 T Loves a Fight	Working class hero found his form again last time, when a wakeup 2nd, and Noda can't lose around these parts this meet, but the rail and potential regression are roadblocks; underneath only.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 5, and the post and race flow are too, so play him to win and place, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since this is just a five-horse field and he's 9-2 on the ML, which means anyone on a budget isn't covering his number, and therefore a win would go a long way in knocking a lot of tickets out that have 'Stan singled.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 07:20 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #3

#8 Begonia	Has traveled evenly in both lifetime turf starts, but the addition of blinkers gives some hope for a better effort here.
#1 Forty Zip	The clear one to beat off a couple of decent finishing efforts, but she's likely overbet here and doesn't tower over these.
#9 Mona Luna	Will need every bit of a repeat of that last one that she produced against easier, but she has some tactical pace to work out a decent trip. Price for a piece?
Race Summary	Begonia adds blinkers, and that might be enough to give her a gear that she lacked in previous turf starts. The price figures to be right in a spot where Forty Zip looks tough but is likely to get overbet.

Laurel Park - Race #4

#5 W W Springtime	Has the early speed to be right up on the splits in this spot without much other early pace, and the price figures to be right with a good forward trip looming.
#2 Bull Shark	Another one with some pace to play in the early going, and he probably has some upside still in this second start off the long layoff.
#6 Almithmaar	Blinkers off for this one after making only a mild move in that Keeneland run last out, but he has been facing some better groups and might appreciate the move in with the local company.
Race Summary	W W Springtime and Bull Shark can both be forwardly placed in a race without much early speed, but the former will offer a much better price than the latter who steps up for this one.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#8 Dark Artist	Has been in much tougher spots than this for most of the past year, and she can probably wake up with this easier group. ML price of 4/1 seems fair.
#5 Ylikedis	Has put together a couple of nice efforts in a row here, and she can be in line for another tactical trip from close range with these. Real chance for the hat trick.
#3 Madame X.	Maybe she's never getting back to some of those really nice 2019 efforts, but the price should be big to take a chance that she wakes up enough to land an underneath share.
Race Summary	Dark Artist has faced some really good groups and now catches a field where the main threats are stepping up off first-level allowance wins. Her best stuff would more than do the trick with these.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 07:21 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#4 PREPPY ART	Horror trip at the Meadowlands, can use his speed well.
#3 WE THINK ALIKE	Always in the hunt but burning money of late.
#2 IDEAL ROCKY	Classy 7-year-old drops, moves outside in.
Race Summary	Preppy Art led until the stretch in his comeback try at Pocono Downs, then ran into traffic problems at the Meadowlands. He settled in the pocket but was shuffled badly on the final turn and blocked with run in deep stretch. Play 4-3 and 4-2 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2

#7 MACK	Controlling speed from the outside, in good form cycle.
#1 SHELTON SEELSTER	Improved speed, repelled longshot, upset with Lasix.
#2 POSEIDON SEELSTER	Rallied into fast pace to finish second from post 9.
Race Summary	Mack led until late in two of his last three starts, the latest after a :55.4 back half. He can maximize his speed in this field, so play 7-1 and 7-2 exactas.

Hoosier Park - Race #2

#6 PLAY ME ROCK	Finished off upset with a rush, switches pilots, value remains.
#1 TABOOMA	Dueled from early backstretch to top of stretch, then surged clear.
#7 BROTHER DICK	Rallied from clouds to finish fourth as the favorite.
Race Summary	Something has to give as five entrants arrive off victories. Play Me Rock sustained a rally through a :27.3 final quarter to spring a 20-1 upset and should have plenty of pace to run at tonight. Play a 1-6-7 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 07:22 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #7

#4 Dr Harlan	Annihilated non-winners in a year and is back in good form and that victory was in fast time. He really should probably have two straight victories going in as he was flying the end of his race two back and finished third.
#3 Cajun Firecracker	Stakes winner keeps dropping down, despite being claimed, which should raise a flag. Fawkes stable claimed him out of his last, when he was third.
#6 French Quarter	Always runs well enough to consider the next time. Opened up 1.5 lengths in the stretch and was caught going a mile. Should like the turn back in distance.
Race Summary	Dr Harlan's last win was highly impressive despite beating that group under conditions that called for non-winners in a year. Is back to good running and is the one to beat here.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#1 Cory Gal	Won three straight last spring, was claimed by Dibona last time out and can get back to winning.
#5 Baccarat Fashion	Came on well and won going away last time; has improved steadily since being claimed four back by the Maker stable.
#6 My Saratoga Star	Led in gate-to-wire fashion two back and then faltered last in a stakes race; fits nicely here and would not be a major surprise.
Race Summary	Cory Gal has won four races over the strip and moved to a high-percentage trainer in Bobby Dibona (20 percent). Can carve out a great trip with speed from the inside post.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#4 Dance Till Dawn	Seeks her third straight win and can be a forward factor regardless of pace; takes a step up but is going her best running.
#10 Run Devil	Was a closing fourth in her only race on turf and the only one around two turns; has had to be pushed to keep up but should get a much more relaxed trip this time.
#2 Amadora	Stopped badly on the main track last time but was third two back in the last time she was on the turf; can be tough on the front end.
Race Summary	Dance Till Dawn has been running extremely well and has by far the best form heading into this one; adds to her resume' here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 08:59 AM

NBA public betting, line movement, sharp money for August 20
Patrick Everson

CJ McCollum and the Trail Blazers look to pull another upset of the Lakers in Game 2 Thursday night. Los Angeles opened a 6-point favorite at The SuperBook and moved to -6.5 Wednesday.

NBA betting odds are up for Thursday’s conference quarterfinal contests, which became a little more intriguing when both No. 1 seeds tumbled in their respective Game 1s. The Los Angeles Lakers fell to the surging Portland Trail Blazers, while the Milwaukee Bucks were dealt an absolutely shocking loss by the Orlando Magic.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

The Lakers were 6.5-point favorites in Game 1 against the eighth-seeded Blazers, but ultimately fell short 100-93, as the Damian Lillard show continued in a 34-point performance. Los Angeles opened a 6-point favorite for Game 2 and moved to -6.5 for a 9 p.m. ET clash.

The Bucks’ loss was a much bigger surprise, as they were 14-point favorites against the eighth-seeded Magic, yet fell 122-110. Milwaukee opened as 12-point chalk for Game 2, and The SuperBook moved to -12.5 Wednesday night for a 6 p.m. ET tipoff.

Russell Westbrook missed Game 1 in the Houston Rockets’ series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but James Harden picked up the slack with 37 points and 11 rebounds in a 123-108 win. Westbrook (quad strain) will sit again for the 3:30 p.m. ET Game 2 tilt, but the Rockets are 2.5-point favorites, after opening -2.

NBA sharp money

Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook, said there wasn’t much in the way of early sharp action.

NBA public betting

The public loves the Lakers, and the Game 1 outcome did nothing to change that fact.

“Early money is on the Lakers, no surprise there,” Osterman said, noting the aforementioned half-point increase to Los Angeles -6.5 at The SuperBook.

Public bettors are also involved in the first game of the day, with the Miami Heat facing the Indiana Pacers at 1 p.m. ET.

“The Pacers are getting some bets on the moneyline +165. It’s mostly public money,” Osterman said. “We’re also seeing some parlay money with the Pacers and Over.”

Indiana is a 4.5-point underdog, and the total is 215.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 09:00 AM

711MIAMI -712 INDIANA
MIAMI is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

713OKLAHOMA CITY -714 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more in the current season.

717PORTLAND -718 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) when trailing in a playoff series since 1996.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 09:00 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, August 20

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DALLAS (43 - 33) vs. LA CLIPPERS (50 - 23) - 8/19/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 41-31 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 75-61 ATS (+7.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 34-25 ATS (+6.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 86-70 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 455-369 ATS (+49.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 231-184 ATS (+28.6 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
DALLAS is 36-21 ATS (+12.9 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 71-51 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 72-51 ATS (+15.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 243-297 ATS (-83.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 7-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 8-3 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (45 - 29) vs. INDIANA (45 - 29) - 8/20/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 17-36 ATS (-22.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA is 39-31 ATS (+4.9 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 8-4 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 6-6 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (44 - 29) vs. HOUSTON (45 - 28) - 8/20/2020, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 52-34 ATS (+14.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 43-29 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-23 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-3 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (34 - 40) vs. MILWAUKEE (56 - 18) - 8/20/2020, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 95-72 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 79-60 ATS (+13.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 84-63 ATS (+14.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 76-58 ATS (+12.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 74-57 ATS (+11.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 9-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (37 - 39) vs. LA LAKERS (52 - 20) - 8/20/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 23-33 ATS (-13.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
LA LAKERS are 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) when trailing in a playoff series since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 7-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 09:00 AM

NBA

Thursday, August 20

Trend Report

Miami @ Indiana
Miami
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Indiana
Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Oklahoma City @ Houston
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games at home
Houston is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

Orlando @ Milwaukee
Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Orlando's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Orlando's last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing at home against Orlando
Milwaukee is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Orlando

Portland @ LA Lakers
Portland
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Lakers's last 11 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 7 games at home

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 09:01 AM

Game 2 Predictions & Odds: Heat vs. Pacers
Michael Crosson

The fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers will be looking to even up their opening round series against the fifth seeded Miami Heat on Thursday when the pair square off in Game 2 of their NBA Playoff first round matchup from Orlando, Florida.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Eastern Conference Game 2
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Thursday, Aug. 20, 2020
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Line Movements

The oddsmakers have indicated they feel comfortable with the line they set in game one, and we are seeing a similar trend in line movement for game two, as Miami opened as five and a half point favorites and Pacers bettors bringing have knocked the spread down to four and a half in favor of the Heat at most books.

‘Under’ bettors cashed tickets in Tuesday night’s affair, but they sweat it out as the total OU closed at 216.0 for game one, and these teams combined for 214 points in Miami’s 113-101 victory. Thursday night’s contest sits at 215.0 at most books, exactly one point higher than the previous contest’s total.

Indiana has now jumped up to a +500 underdog to advance to the 2nd round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs, after opening at +240, indicating the confidence the oddsmakers have in the Heat after their statement win in game one.

Spread: Miami -4.5
Money-Line: Miami -185, Indiana +165
Total: 215
Updated Series Price: Miami -700, Indiana +500

Game 1 Recap

Miami’s All-Star shooting guard, Jimmy Butler, tried to clear the air prior to game one regarding his and TJ Warren’s beef coming into the series, but after seeing the look in Jimmy’s eyes down the stretch in the first game, it is clear he still has the hole in his heart for Indiana he had going into the bubble, entering the 4th quarter with a one-point lead, then scoring 10 points in the final minutes, burying the Pacers and winning the final quarter by an 11-point margin.

Butler out-dueled Warren 28-22 on the scoreboard and tallied four rebounds and 3 assists in Miami’s 113-101 game one victory. Goran Dragic got the playoff start on Tuesday and made a night out of it, complementing Jimmy’s 28 points with 24 points of his own along with six rebounds and five assists.

It took them a little while to find their rhythm, but the Brogdon-Warren duo finished the game with 22 points each, and will likely need to contribute more than that on Thursday, now with Victor Oladipo 'questionable' for tonight’s tilt already down in an 0-1 hole.

The Miami Heat outscored the Indiana Pacers by 21 combined points in the second and fourth quarters in their Game 1 victory. (AP)

Game 1 Betting Results

The Pacers won the first (33-27) and third (28-25) quarters in Game 1 but the Heat outscored them by 21 points in the second and fourth quarters. Indiana's inability to make any shots in the final 12 minutes helped bettors playing the 'under' for both the game and second-half.
Outcome: Heat 113 Pacers 101

Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (-4), Under 216
First Quarter: Pacers Win (33-27), Pacers Cover (+1), Over 54
First-Half: Heat Win (56-52), Heat Cover (-2.5), Under 109.5
Second-Half: Heat Win (57-49), Heat Cover (-1.5), Under 106

Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 45-29 SU, 37-36-1 ATS, 43-31 O/U
Bubble: 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS, 4-5 O/U

The ‘under’ cashed in game one, but it was no thanks to Miami, as there were times during the contest when things were looking gloom for ‘under’ bettors, as the Heat finished the game with 113 points, and the offense looked fluent for the majority of the game.

No Kendrick Nunn, no problem for the Heat as Butler and Dragic combined for 52 points in game one for the Miami’s backcourt, while Nunn did not see the floor on Tuesday after starting the majority of the games for them during regular season.

Miami got behind the 8-ball early in the first contest in this series, trailing the Pacers 33-27 at the end of the first quarter in game one. The key for the Heat in game two should be to come out of the gate playing tight defense early, and for Butler and Dragic to establish their dominance over Brogdon and company.

Pacers Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 45-29 SU, 39-30-5 ATS, 37-36-2 O/U
Bubble: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 3-6 O/U

Malcom Brogdon, Warren, and Aaron Holiday came out shooting in game one, the trio tallying a combined 21 points in the first quarter on Tuesday, jumping out to an early six-point lead.

That was short lived though, as Butler and company turned it around defensively in the 2nd quarter, holding the Pacers to just 19 points and stealing a four-point lead heading into the half.

Brogdon and Warren ended up finishing the contest with 44 of the Pacer’s 101 total points, partly because of the early exit from Oladipo, but they are going to need more out of their supporting cast if they are going to get it done in game two. Indiana got outscored from three-point land in game one 30-39, and if they want any shot at game two, they can not allow that to happen.

Key Injuries

Indiana

SG Victor Oladipo: Eye - Game Time Decision
PF Domantas Sabonis: Foot - Out
SG Jeremy Lamb: Knee - Out

Miami

PG Gabe Vincent: Shoulder - Out
SF KZ Okpala: Personal - Out

Domantas Sabonis is set to miss his second straight contest in this series, but the real story here is Oladipo still being listed on the injury report as a game-time decision for game two, after leaving Tuesday’s game with a scratched eye. If Oladipo is unable to go on Thursday, look for Warren and Brogdon to eat up his missing volume again.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 09:01 AM

Game 2 Predictions & Odds: Thunder vs. Rockets
Michael Crosson

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 2
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Thursday, Aug. 20, 2020
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Line Movements

With Russell Westbrooks set to miss his second straight game in the opening round of the Western Conference Playoffs, the Rockets open as just two-point favorites after winning game one by a 15-point margin.

The Houston Rockets have gone from underdogs in Game 1 to favorites in Game 2 in their series versus the Oklahoma City. (AP)

After cashing the ‘over’ by scoring 231 total points in their first contest, the total OU is set for game two 227.5, with not much movement in either direction yet, but make sure to keep track of all the line movements.

Oklahoma City shifted from +120 to +290 underdogs to advance to the second round after getting routed in game one, and will look to even up this series at 1-1 on Thursday evening.

Spread: Houston -2
Money-Line: Houston -140, Oklahoma City +120
Total: 227.5
Updated Series Price: Houston -350, Oklahoma City +290

Game 1 Recap

The Rockets were missing one of their All-Star guards in game one of this opening series, leading the line for the first contest to close at -1 in favor of Houston.

But clearly the absence of Westbrook was not missed too dearly, as James Harden went for 37 points over 34 minutes, sitting out the majority of the 4th quarter in the Rockets 123-108 win.

Houston racked up 20 three-point bombs, shooting 38.5 percent from downtown, which is a tough clip to keep up with for a Oklahoma City team that doesn’t shoot the three particularly well.

Chris Paul and Steven Adams combined for 37 points and 22 rebounds, but it simply wasn’t enough as Houston cruised to a game one victory without its second-best player.

Game 1 Betting Results

It was a wire-to-wire performance for the Houston Rockets in Game 1 as they covered the game, first-quarter, first-half and they even managed to hang around in cash the final 24 minutes too.

Make a note that the teams combined for less than 50 points (48, 44) in both the first and fourth quarters but posted 72 and 67 combined points in the second and third stanzas respectively.
Outcome: Rockets 123 Thunder 108

Game: Rockets Win, Rockets Cover (+1.5), Over 225
First Quarter: Rockets Win (28-20), Rockets Cover (+0.5), Under 57
First-Half: Rockets Win (68-52), Rockets Cover (+1), Over 116
Second-Half: Thunder Win (56-55), Rockets Cover (+5.5), Under 117

Thunder Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 44-29 SU, 44-29 ATS, 35-37-1 O/U
Bubble: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U

It’s back to the drawing board for Paul and company as the Thunder fell to the short-handed version of his old team in the opening game of this playoff series.

CP3 was just one assist shy of a tripledouble on Tuesday night, but clearly it wasn’t even close to being enough as he got outscored by 17 points by his former teammate.

The one real bright spot for Oklahoma City team was Danilo Gallinari, who tallied 29 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists in game one utilizing a mismatch all game drawing a Rocket’s guard off the bench defensively.

With no Russ in this game again, ride Gallinari’s points ‘over’ as the Thunder are really going to need their three-point shooters to step up in game two if they intend on keeping this one close.

Rockets Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 49-28 SU, 34-39 ATS, 31-42 O/U
Bubble: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U

There were obviously some concerns coming into game one for Houston being without one of their allstar guards, but Harden continues to pacify critics time-after-time with another jaw-dropping performance from the field.

This team is built completely around him, and as long as the Beard is in the lineup, the Rockets will be just fine and they proved that in game one. Harden’s total points line was set at 37.5 for game one, and Coach Mike D’Antoni took him out of the game right as he scored his 37thpoint in the 4th quarter followed by a Thunder timeout.

Look for Harden to go over his total points +rebounds + assists line in this game 2 contest as I expect this game to be closer and for the Beard to tally more minutes.

Key Injuries

Houston

PG Russell Westbrook: Quadriceps - Out

Oklahoma City

SG Luguentz Dort: Knee - Out

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 09:02 AM

Game 2 Predictions & Odds: Magic vs. Bucks
Kevin Rogers

After getting stunned in Game 1 on Tuesday, the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks will look to rebound against the No. 8 Orlando Magic as they meet in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference first round matchups on Thursday evening from the NBA Bubble in Orlando.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Game 2
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Thursday, Aug. 20, 2020
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Line Movements

Spread: Milwaukee -12.5
Money-Line: Milwaukee -1400, Orlando +800
Total: 227.5
Updated Series Price: Milwaukee -4000, Orlando +1500

Game 1 Recap

For the second time inside the bubble, the Milwaukee Bucks lost outright as a double-digit favorite. The Bucks were tripped up by the Nets earlier this month as 18.5-point chalk, but that was a meaningless regular season game to top-seeded Milwaukee. The eighth-seeded Magic, who seemed like they would be lucky to win one game in this series, led from start to finish in a 122-110 stunner as 14-point underdogs.

Orlando built a 10-point lead after the first quarter and had an 18-point advantage late in the second quarter. Milwaukee cut the deficit to 69-68 with 8:33 remaining in the third quarter, but that's as close as the Bucks got as the Magic pulled away late in the period to grab a 92-79 cushion.

Nikola Vucevic torched the Bucks as the Magic forward scored 35 points and pulled down 14 rebounds, while Orlando knocked down 16 three-pointers. The Bucks were limited to 43% shooting from the floor and missed 10 free throws in the loss, as last season's MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo put up 31 points for Milwaukee.

Game 1 Betting Results

Outcome: Magic 122 Bucks 110

Game: Magic Win, Magic Cover (+14), Over 225.5
First Quarter: Magic Win (33-23), Magic Cover (+4), Under 58
First-Half: Magic Win (62-52), Magic Cover (+8), Under 114.5
Second-Half: Magic Win (60-58), Magic Cover (+9.5), Over 117

Magic Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 34-40 SU, 36-36-2, 39-32-3 O/U
Bubble: 4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Orlando is the only team that didn't have to travel to the bubble, but the Magic endured a five-game skid after winning their first two contests against the Nets and Kings. The Magic lost all five games to Eastern Conference playoff teams, including double-digit defeats to Toronto and Indiana.

In the last nine opportunities as an underdog dating back to before the pandemic, the Magic have compiled an impressive 7-2 ATS mark. Orlando beat Milwaukee for the first in five meetings this season, but the Magic have cashed in both opportunities as a double-digit underdog against the Bucks.

Bucks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 56-18 SU, 39-35 ATS, 35-37-2 O/U
Bubble: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Milwaukee lost its second-round playoff opener to Boston by 22 points last season. However, the Bucks bounced back with four consecutive wins and covers, so losing Game 1 to Orlando isn't exactly doomsday for Milwaukee. On the flip side, Orlando upset Toronto in Game 1 of the first round as nine-point underdogs, then was blown out in Game 2 by a 111-82 count.

The Bucks have done a good job of bouncing back off a non-cover as a double-digit favorite this season by putting together a 12-6 ATS mark in the following game. Milwaukee is 4-0 SU and ATS off an outright loss as a favorite of 10 points or more this season.

Key Injuries

Milwaukee

Ersan Illyasova: Elbow – Questionable

Orlando

Michael Carter-Williams: Foot - Doubtful
Aaron Gordon: Hamstring - Questionable

Gordon has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury as the Magic are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in this stretch. The forward's status is still up in the air for Thursday's contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 09:02 AM

Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Game 2 Predictions, Odds, Preview
Tony Mejia

Thursday's NBA playoff finale will pit the No. 1 L.A. Lakers squaring off against the No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers in Game 2 of their first-round series. The "Purple and Gold" look to rebound from a Game 1 upset loss.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Game 2
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Thursday, Aug. 20, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The L.A. Lakers opened as a 5-point favorite for Game 2 at DraftKings and 5.5 at Westgate SuperBook, but most shops had top-seeded L.A. as a 6-point 'chalk. You can still find -6 at a number of books but most have the Lakers listed as a 6.5-point favorite as of Wednesday evening.

The total opened at 227 at Caesars, but has hovered in the 228-229 range as tip-off approaches.

Be sure to follow all the line movements.

Spread: Los Angeles -6.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -280, Portland +240
Total: 229
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -240, Portland +200

Game 1 Recap

The Trail Blazers closed on a 19-6 run over the final 6:38 to defeat the Lakers in a game where they let a 16-point first half edge slip away. A LeBron James' 3-pointer with 7:21 left gave L.A. a game-high six-point lead but he was limited to a tip-in and Anthony Davis managed only a dunk in the entire fourth quarter, missing a pair of free throws as well.

The Lakers shot a horrendous 5-for-32 from 3-point range (15.6 percent) while only Kyle Kuzma and Danny Green joined Davis and James in scoring in double-figures. The Lakers shot 35 percent from the field against a Blazers defense that was regularly roasted in seeding games despite their 7-2 record to reach the playoffs. Portland gave up 121 points in seven of their nine contests and hadn't held an opponent under 100 points since Jan. 7, a span of 37 games.

Damian Lillard led Portland with 34 points, five rebounds and five assists while backcourt mate C.J. McCollum added 21 points. Jusuf Nurkic and Carmelo Anthony chipped in with double-doubles.

Game 1 Betting Results

Outcome: Trail Blazers 100 Lakers 93

Game: Trail Blazers Win, Trail Blazers Cover (+6.5), Under 234
First Quarter: Trail Blazers Win (36-25), Trail Blazers Cover (+1.5), Over 60.5
First-Half: Trail Blazers Win (57-56), Trail Blazers Cover (+3.5), Under 119
Second-Half: Trail Blazers Win (43-37), Trail Blazers Cover (+5.5), Under 116

Trail Blazers Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 36-39 SU, 33-40-3 ATS, 45-31 O/U
Bubble: 8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS, 8-2 O/U

Portland cited the fact that it has been playing playoff games for the duration of its stay in the bubble as one reason it was able to respond as effectively as it was able to in the first half. The Blazers racked up 36 first-quarter points and ended up winning three of the four quarters.

The Blazers hadn't been this heavy an underdog since action resumed prior to the closing number for Game 1 reaching 6.5. They were last this heavy a 'dog when they were getting 10 points at Indiana on Feb. 27.

In case the line gets to Blazers +7, you should be aware that it went 2-9 straight up in games as an underdog of seven or more points (5-6 ATS).

Lakers Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Overall: 52-20 SU, 36-35-1 ATS, 34-38 O/U
Bubble: 3-6 SU, 1-8 ATS, 4-5 O/U

The Lakers lacked intensity throughout the contest and need to figure out how to solve their offensive woes before they find themselves in a major hole in the series. James has found it difficult to get himself going without fans in the stands but still came through with a triple-double in Game 1 while shooting 9-for-20.

While Kuzma is considered the third member of L.A.'s "Big Three" and finished third on the team in scoring (12.8 ppg), he's not out there with Davis and James often and does his damage while giving those guys their breather. Someone who sees minutes in that starting lineup has to step up as the third option. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shot 0-for-9, missing all five 3-point attempts. He finished with one point, one rebound and one assist in Game 1 despite playing nearly 30 minutes.

L.A. ranked last in the bubble in scoring, 3-point shooting and assists despite James leading the league in that latter category for the first time in his storied career. Dion Waiters played just one minute while Alex Caruso got the bulk of the reserve backcourt minutes. I expect that will change in Game 2.

Key Injuries

Portland

Zach Collins: Ankle – Out

L.A. Lakers

LeBron James: Groin - Probable
Anthony Davis: Knee - Probable
Rajon Rondo: Hand - Questionable
Avery Bradley: Personal - Out

Blazers power forward Zach Collins missed Game 1 and has been ruled out until at least Game 5 due to a stress reaction in his left ankle. Wenyen Gabriel started in Game 1 but Hassan Whiteside played most of the meaningful minutes, contributing seven points, eight boards and five blocks.

James and Davis were listed on the injury report with nagging ailments but are otherwise fine. Bradley opted not to play in the bubble, while Rondo is still recovering from surgery and was upgraded to 'questionable' on Wednesday night, fueling hope that he'll debut this weekend if not in this Game 2. Green says a lingering headache has prevented him from playing to his potential but he expects to be himself soon.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 09:02 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, August 20

Miami @ Indiana

Game 711-712
August 20, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
124.161
Indiana
112.528
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
By 11 1/2
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
By 4
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-4); Over

Oklahoma City @ Houston

Game 713-714
August 20, 2020 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
109.956
Houston
120.965
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
By 11
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
By 2 1/2
225 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-2 1/2); Over

Orlando @ Milwaukee

Game 715-716
August 20, 2020 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
109.900
Milwaukee
125.188
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
By 15
233
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
By 12 1/2
227
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-12 1/2); Over

Portland @ LA Lakers

Game 717-718
August 20, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
121.091
LA Lakers
115.206
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
By 6
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
By 6 1/2
229
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+6 1/2); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-20-2020, 09:03 AM

WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, August 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (8 - 4) vs. NEW YORK (1 - 10) - 8/20/2020, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-2 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
7 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (11 - 1) vs. INDIANA (4 - 7) - 8/20/2020, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 3-3 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 5-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONNECTICUT (5 - 7) vs. LAS VEGAS (8 - 3) - 8/20/2020, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 4-2 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 4-2 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Thursday 8/20/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 8/20/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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