Saturday 8/22/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 1:00PM ET:
MILWAUKEE BUCKS @ ORLANDO MAGIC PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

ORL Magic Win +12.0 Point Spread
-110

Under 226.0 Game Totals
-110

Against the Spread Pick
The Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic are locked up at 1-1 in their first-round series heading into Game 3 on Saturday. Milwaukee bounced back from a disastrous Game 1 performance (a 122-110 loss) with a routine win on Thursday, but that was borderline inevitable. Now it is Orlando’s turn to wake back up, and while that may not mean another win it should at least mean competitiveness. The Bucks have not been dominant at all in the bubble; in fact, they were 1-4 in their last five regular-season games against playoff opponents. Milwaukee guard Khris Middleton is 16-for-45 from the floor and 2-for-13 from three-point range in his past four games. For the Magic, Nikola Vucevic scored 35 and 32 points in the first two contests. The Bucks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 overall and 2-6 ATS in their last eight against opponents with losing records. Orlando is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 overall and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 as an underdog. Take the Magic and the points.


Over Under Pick
Orlando’s four point totals against Milwaukee during the regular season were 91, 101, 100, and 95. The Magic caught the Bucks napping in Game 1 erupted for 122 points, but they reverted back to their normal ways with a 96-point effort on Thursday. At the same time, Milwaukee probably won’t be able to light up the scoreboard given Middleton’s struggles. The under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last five against opponents with losing records and 7-1 in their last eight following a win. It is also 5-1-1 in the Magic’s last seven against opponents with winning records. Additionally, the under is 5-1-1 in the last five meetings between the two teams. Hammer the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 3:30PM ET:
INDIANA PACERS @ MIAMI HEAT PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

MIA Heat Win -5.0 Point Spread
-110

Under 214.0 Game Totals
-110

Against the Spread Pick
The Indiana Pacers went 6-2 in the bubble during the regular season, but most of those wins came against either bad teams or playoff-bound teams who weren’t interested. Now, however, missing Domantas Sabonis is catching up to them in a big way on both ends of the floor. With T.J. Warren having cooled off and Malcolm Brogdon ice cooled, it appears that the Pacers cannot overcome Sabonis’ absence. They trail the Miami Heat 2-0 in this first-round series heading into Saturday after losing the opener 113-101 and Game 2 by a 109-100 margin. Miami’s Duncan Robinson went 7-for-8 from the floor–all from three-point range–for 24 points on Thursday. Indiana is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog and 0-5-1 ATS in its last six first-round games. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games as favorites and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams. Although the prospect of giving five points is not thrilling, it probably has to be done based on how this series is looking.


Over Under Pick
In pace of play (possessions per game) rankings, Miami and Indiana were 22nd and 23rd respectively in the NBA during the regular season. In their last three head-to-head matchups, and average of just 100 possessions are taking place; on the regular-season chart, that would rank second-to-last ahead of only Charlotte. Brogdon is just 10-for-32 from the floor and 3-for-12 from three-point range in the playoffs. The under is 5-0 in the Pacers’ last five overall and 5-0 in their last five against opponents with winning percentages over .600. It is also 4-1 in the Heat’s last five overall and 4-0 in their last four against opponents with winning records. Additionally, the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two teams. Roll with the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 6:00PM ET:
HOUSTON ROCKETS @ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

HOU Rockets Win -3.5 Point Spread
-110

Under 224.0 Game Totals
-110

Against the Spread Pick
Russell Westbrook did not play in either of the first two games but Houston won anyway. The Rockets dominated in Game 1 and then they finally found their way in Game 2. His status for the Rockets is undetermined right now but there is no reason to rush him back while they are up in the series. James Harden took a long time in Game 2 to make an impact, in fact, when they made their push he was on the bench. Houston just has the answers right now and it is hard to see what is going to change. The hard part for Oklahoma City is getting good offense on a regular basis. Sure Chris Paul can always wriggle free and get a good shot but it it not in his nature to “gun.” Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has his moments but can’t be relied upon regularly; his shooting and decision making just aren’t there yet. Oklahoma City is committed to defense but as Game 2 showed, if the Thunder let Houston hang around the craftiness of the Rockets eventually wins out. Take Houston to go up 3-0 and cover.


Over Under Pick
Houston is not shy about taking a lot of three point-shots; that has been its strategy since the Mike D’Antoni got there. The two games in this series have yielded one over and one under, the under being Game 2. The total for this one is about the same as the first two games. After seeing those contests I think what we saw in Game 2 is the most likely outcome, no matter which team wins. It is likely to be a sluggish affair and whichever team can string together a run gets it done. Take the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 8:30PM ET:
LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

POR Trail Blazers Win +7.5 Point Spread
-110

Over 225.0 Game Totals
-110

Against the Spread Pick
There is a lot to break down from the Game 2 win by L.A., but really it came down to two factors. The first was that the Lakers finally got all-star level play from Anthony Davis and the second was that Portland seemed to lack energy. Normally the latter would have been helped by playing at home but that is not the case this season. If Portland wants to take the advantage in the series again it needs the guard tandem of Damian Lillard and CJ McColum to find the mojo again. I like the odds of them doing so, but will it be enough if the Lakers’ duo of Davis and LeBron James also plays at a high level. I am also interested to see how Carmelo Anthony responds to a game in which he only made one field goal. Not that long ago people thought his career was over but has proven to have some life left. Now the question is whether he can just play winning ball and not force the action too much. Los Angeles avoids the intense scrutiny of getting down two games to none but I thin the score flattered them more than their game play. Take Portland.


Over Under Pick
After back to back unders it is no surprise that we have seen the total drop again for game three. That is simple oddsmakers math. Game 1 was a slugfest and game two was kind of lifeless. These teams can score though and I think we will see more of that. I think we are going to finally get a game where each big duo is at the height of their powers and the scoring will reflect that. We have seen the total drop close to 10 points from game one. Let’s take advantage of that. Take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 4:05PM ET:
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ PITTSBURGH PIRATES PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

MIL Brewers Win Money Line
-170

Over 9.5 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
Two journeyman starting pitchers square off on Saturday as Josh Lindblom of the Brewers faces Pirates lefty Derek Holland. These two 33-year-olds could not have traveled more different career paths. Holland has been a solid major league pitcher for the last decade, including eight seasons with the Texas Rangers, but never an all-star, so many casual fans on the east coast may not be familiar with him. He’s struggled so far in his first season in Pittsburgh, pitching to a 7.36 ERA in 18.0 innings over four appearances. Lindblom is now with his sixth major-league team, but he had only made six career starts prior to this year. He enjoyed a career resurgence in Korea, pitching in parts of five seasons and winning the league MVP award last season with Doosan. He’s also off to a slow start back in the states, but has a much stronger lineup behind him that is more familiar with Holland than the Pirates are with him. The Brewers are the better team, and they should take this one.


Over Under Pick
Holland is struggling to maintain major-league relevance, with an ERA more than a run higher than his 6.08 effort across 84 innings last season. Lindblom will be facing a Pittsburgh lineup that shouldn’t scare him, but he won’t be winning any Cy Young or MVP awards outside of Korea. Both starting pitchers are at the end of their careers, and neither has shown any indication that he’s capable of taking the rubber and tossing a gem. Runs should be aplenty, so take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 4:10PM ET:
LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ OAKLAND ATHLETICS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

Athletics Win Money Line
-147

Over 9.5 Game Totals
-114

Money Line Pick
Move over, Houston. The Oakland Athletics are the most exciting team in the American League West, and this young team is here to stay. They may not hit for a high average, but they can hit the ball out of the ballpark, and their bullpen is, without any doubt whatsoever, the best in the major leagues. Chris Bassitt, their best starting pitcher so far this year, takes the mound Saturday to face the Los Angeles Angels, a team he’s defeated in three of six career starts despite an ERA over five and a half. The Angels have big-money contracts in the middle of their lineup, but what they don’t have is pitching. Apart from Dylan Bundy, who’s been one of the best pitchers in the American League, their starting pitchers have a record of 1-12 coming into Friday. Griffin Canning is responsible for three of those losses. He’s having trouble going deep into games, averaging less than five innings per start in 2020. If the Angels had the bullpen quality of Oakland, they’d be a much more competitive team, but they don’t, so look for Oakland to get out to a lead and hold onto it.


Over Under Pick
Nearly halfway through the season, Mike Trout is on pace to become the first player ever to finish with more home runs than wins for his team. That sums up the Angels: they score runs, but they don’t win many games. Trout and Albert Pujols both have a home run and a career average over .400 against Bassitt. With the Angels likely to score early and Oakland’s big bats facing the Anaheim bullpen in the later innings, the over is the better play in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 7:05PM ET:
BOSTON RED SOX @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

BAL Orioles Win Money Line
+105

Under 9.5 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox will continue a four-game series when they meet again in Baltimore on Saturday. Baltimore had lost five games in a row heading into Friday, but sending right-hander Alex Cobb to the mound could be just what the doctor ordered. Cobb is sporting a 3.76 ERA 26.1 innings and he has 21 strikeouts compared to only nine weeks. Those numbers aren’t spectacular, but they are better than what he has compiled over the past few years as he shows at least some signs of recapturing the form that was on display early in his career. The Red Sox are countering with left-hander Martin Perez, whose 4.07 ERA is actually decent by his standards. Perez was terrible the past two seasons with Texas and Minnesota. This once proud franchise is third-to-last in the entire MLB standings at 8-18 and nothing about Saturday’s pitching matchup suggest anything is about to change. Boston is 2-9 in its last 11 overall, 2-8 in its last 10 on the road, and 17-35 in its last 52 against the American League East. Lean toward the Orioles.


Over Under Pick
The Red Sox are tied for last in the majors this season with 160 runs allowed. There is, however, one piece of good news for the Sox. It’s the only piece of good news, but at least it’s something. Mitch Moreland is batting .360 with seven homers and he has had multiple hits in three straight games. Although both of these starting pitchers are serviceable, neither is close to dominant. The over is 8-3-1 in Boston’s last 12 in the third game of a series and 5-2-1 in its last eight against the American League East. It is also 5-2-1 in the Orioles’ last eight overall and 4-1-1 in their last six at home. Take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 7:05PM ET:
MINNESOTA TWINS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

MIN Twins Win Money Line
-165

Under 9.0 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
The Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins will resume a three-game series when they square off in Kansas City on Saturday. These two American League Central rivals find themselves at opposite ends of the division, which is not surprising. Minnesota is loaded and is in first place as of Friday night, while Kansas City is tied for last with Detroit. Nothing about Saturday’s pitching matchup suggests a surprise is in store. Twins right-hander Randy Dobnak is 4-1 with a 1.42 ERA. Dobnak is not going to blow hitters away with untouchable stuff, but he knows how to work the plate and has been doing so in expert fashion this season. Kansas City right-hander Brady Singer may have more electric stuff, but he has half as many walks (12) as strikeouts (24). That is part of the reason why he is just 1-2 with a 4.56 ERA. Minnesota is 4-1 in its last five overall and 36-16 in its last 52 against opponents with losing records. The Royals are 2-5 in their last seven against right-handed starters. Take the Twins.


Over Under Pick
K.C. is tied for last in the division with 97 runs scored–just two ahead of cellar-dwelling Texas in the American League. Nelson Cruz is on fire as usual for Minnesota, but he is not getting much help and Josh Donaldson is hurt as usual (calf). Dobnak could dominate and Singer should at least be serviceable. The under is 6-1 in the Twins’ last seven overall, 6-1 in their last seven against starters with WHIPs over 1.30, and 6-1 in their last seven against the American League Central. It is also 20-8 in the Royals’ last 28 overall. Additionally, the under is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the two teams and 7-1 in Minnesota’s last eight at Kansas City. Go with the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 7:10PM ET:
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ ATLANTA BRAVES PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

ATL Braves Win Money Line
+105

Over 9.0 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
The Atlanta Braves will go to another bullpen game on Saturday night as Robbie Erlin has earned himself a second start. He pitched 4.0 shutout innings against the Marlins in his last start, allowing just one hit and striking out five. If Erlin can continue to be an effective starter or opener, he may find a permanent spot in the Atlanta rotation, which as we know has been decimated this season. Erlins did face the Phillies earlier in the season as a reliever, allowing four runs in just 2.2 innings of work.


Right behind Aaron Nola has been Zack Wheeler. In terms of a 1-2 combo, Wheeler has been exceptional for the Phillies. Wheeler gets the start on Saturday, looking to improve his 3-0 record and his 2.81 ERA. He managed to last 7.0 innings in his most recent start against the Mets, allowing just two runs. Wheeler really had problems against the Braves in 2019, going 1-2 against them in four starts with an ERA of 6.26. Plus, you have to take into account how poor this Phillies bullpen has been. I think the Braves might have found something with Erlin starting games, at least to go 4.0 or 5.0 innings, so I will lean to the Braves to get the job done.


Over Under Pick
As I mentioned, Wheeler’s track record against the Braves does not do him any favors in how this game might turn out. Wheeler allowed 16 runs over 23.0 innings last year and I think he is going to struggle again here even though the Braves are missing some key offensive pieces. Once again, keep in mind that the Phillies’ bullpen can basically blow any lead at any time. We saw this when they allowed seven runs to the the Toronto Blue Jays after having been up 7-2 in the game. I look for Erlin to give up a few as well, seeing that he had troubles against the Phillies when he was called upon in relief against them. Look for runs to be scored throughout this entire game, which has me leaning towards an over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 7:10PM ET:
DETROIT TIGERS @ CLEVELAND INDIANS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

CLE Indians Win Money Line
-170

Over 10.0 Game Totals
+100


Money Line Pick
Two AL Central rivals will continue their weekend series on Saturday as Matthew Boyd gets set to take the mound for the Tigers and Triston McKenzie will start for the Indians. Boyd has been downright awful this season, posting a record of 0-3 thus far with a horrid ERA of 9.64. He is coming off a start in which he allowed three runs over 4.0 innings against the White Sox. His two starts before that saw him allow seven runs in each outing, in just 4.2 innings of work each time. His track record against Cleveland does not help his case either, allowing 11 runs over 18.0 innings against them last season.

McKenzie will actually be making his MLB debut in this game, which always give me cause for concern. This is especially true considering McKenzie has not pitched in a game since 2018, missing all of 2019 with an injury. In his minor-league career, he went 26-16 with an ERA of 2.68. While I am not sure I can fully trust McKenzie, I still would back him here because I simply cannot recommend backing Boyd. It would just be a lean to the Indians, but that is the only way I could look.


Over Under Pick
The total is just as hard to call because McKenzie has never seen big league batters and Boyd has just been terrible. I do not expect McKenzie to pitch a shutout in his MLB debut, but I also do not think he will surrender much. Remember, he is facing a team that as of Friday has lost nine games in a row. Its offense is nothing special and as a top prospect, I see him having success.

As for Boyd, he is probably good to give up four or five runs at least, maybe more with how often he allows the long ball. The Tigers’ bullpen does not help the case of an under either, having allowed 18 runs in their recent four-game series with the White Sox. Because McKenzie is on the mound, this is a total I would probably stay away from. A lean to the over would be my play though if I was going to do so.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 8:15PM ET:
CINCINNATI REDS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

CIN Reds Win Money Line
-105

Over 9.5 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
The Reds need a good weekend. This series did not start off great as they squandered a strong performance from ace Sonny Gray on Thursday night when the bullpen couldn’t hold the lead. Cincinnati has been finding different ways to lose, wasting what has been a strong batch of starting pitching performances. That has not included Wade Miley; he has been the weak link and will need the Reds to score some runs. They are 23rd in runs per game thanks to a team batting average of just .219. Top slugger Eugenio Suarez is hitting just .147. There is something going on with the kinds of guys this season. St. Louis is still playing catchup in terms of games and doing so at a .500 pace. I feel like the Cardinals are great at turning over a team without reaching rock bottom but the ceiling fo this group is not super high. They are hard to compare to other teams because their counting stats are off. Tyler O’Neill already has three homers to lead the team. He hit five in 60 games a year ago by comparison. Kwang Hyun Kim had only one MLB appearance under his belt before being called on to start in a recent double-header; it went pretty well, but he seems beatable. It’s a tossup here but I like the Reds more. Take Cincinnati.


Over Under Pick
Neither team is showing much in terms of totals this season. Cincinnati is 12-11 O/U while the Cardinals are an even 7-7. However, in both cased I do believe that these teams can be better on offense than what we have seen. Combine that with a couple of pitchers that are not going to intimidate and this is a recipe for an over on a Saturday evening. Both of these starters are unlikely to make the fifth inning. Take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 9:10PM ET:
TEXAS RANGERS @ SEATTLE MARINERS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

TEX Rangers Win Money Line
+110

Over 9.0 Game Totals
+100

Money Line Pick
The Seattle Mariners picked up a desperately-needed win in the first game of this series, but I think the Texas Rangers will be able to bounce back in the second game. Let’s not get too excited about this Seattle victory, as they are still just 5-15 in their last 20 games. They will start youngster Justus Sheffield here, who has a career 5.25 ERA in 11 starts. In his one start against the Rangers last year he walked four batters and lasted only three innings. The Rangers have hit a rough patch, but most of their recent losses have been close, including two in extra innings. Right before the slump they had won seven of eight games, and I still think they are better than their record overall. Seattle is one of the worst teams in the league, and there’s no way you could convince me to lay it with them as a favorite.


Over Under Pick
I also like the over a lot in this spot. Sheffield is young and inexperienced, and this Texas lineup has been heating up recently. Jordan Lyles will start for the Rangers here, and he has been an absolute disaster this season. He enters with an ERA of 7.52, a 1.72 WHIP, and has given up 17 earned runs in his last 18 innings while walking 12 batters. One of his recent starts was against this same Mariners team, when he gave up 10 baserunners and four earned runs. There were 11 total runs in the first game of this series, and I think we should see at least that many here. The over is also a perfect 5-0 in Texas’ last five games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 9:10PM ET:
COLORADO ROCKIES @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

Over 9.5 Game Totals
+100

LA Dodgers Win -1.5 Run Line
-120

Run Line Pick
The Rockies are hoping to grab some wins in LA and bridge the gap between them and the Dodgers. They have been in a funk though so expecting much from this trip could lead to disappointment. Lately the quality pitching that helped stake them to a good start has been in short supply. Kyle Freeland is getting the ball and even though he has been better than he was a year ago that was a pretty low bar. His splits at Dodgers Stadium are okay, such as a 3.86 ERA. He never really dominates. The bullpen could be gassed, too. The Dodgers are first in homers and first in runs scored. Pair those with a mediocre pitching staff and you can still win but match them with the second best staff ERA in the league and they are very tough to beat. They have been doing most of their damage on the road, though, as they are just 8-5 at home. Dustin May is becoming very recognizable, with the red hair and big arm. His actual numbers are good, as well. Take L.A.


Over Under Pick
Shutting down Colorado is a tough thing to do and shutting down the Dodgers even tougher. However, it appears the oddsmakers are pretty good at setting the lines for L.A., as this team is just 11-13 O/U on the season. You would think they would play more overs. The same goes for Colorado, which is 11-13-1. This series is the first time they have met this season. I am going with a small play on the over here. Take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 9:10PM ET:
HOUSTON ASTROS @ SAN DIEGO PADRES PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

HOU Astros Win Money Line
+100

Over 8.5 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
I am not totally sure how good this San Diego team is but it is not boring; or at least Fernando Tatis Jr. isn’t. The Padres do not have the lineup depth of the Astros but they are getting some clutch hitting and that can be everything in the majors. San Diego is 8-4 at home and will have Zach Davies on the hill on Saturday. The ex-Brewer has been a pretty good acquisition as this team was looking to add experience and depth to its rotation. He beats you with stuff he should be able to. Houston had won nine in a row heading into Friday’s action. It has been a real mixed bag, too, as four times the Astros have scored 10-plus runs and three times they have won by a 2-1 score. They got the bats going at Colorado but there are still key guys that are really struggling. Brandon Bielak has yet to lose in the majors and has been hard to hit. As a rookie, a book on him has yet to be established and I like that coming into this spot with team momentum. Take Houston.


Over Under Pick
Even tough both of these teams have explosive offenses the markets have pegged them pretty good for totals. Houston is 13-11 O/U and San Diego is 14-13. Bielak is not giving up much, though, so if San Diego is going to post some runs it may need to beat up on the bullpen. I can get behind that the way they have been slugging this season. Houston is going to have to be patient against Davies. I think the Astros will respond to that favorably. Look for runs in bunches from Houston. Take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 9:15PM ET:
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

SF Giants Win Money Line
+145

Over 9.0 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
Don’t look now but the San Francisco Giants are quietly on fire, and they will look to keep that momentum going here against the Arizona Diamondbacks. As a home underdog yet again, I have to play them here. They are a lot better than most people seem to think, and they’ve been dominating recently. Not only have they won four games in a row, but their much maligned offense has now scored at least six runs in five straight games. Tyler Anderson will start for the Giants here, and although he got roughed up in his two most recent starts he was quite good before that. Prior to that, he had given up only three earned runs in 12 1/3 innings of work. The Giants have clearly seen all the disrespect written about them, and they aren’t just going to take it. The Diamondbacks have also looked awful recently, losing three straight games and scoring just a handful of runs total. Take San Francisco.


Over Under Pick
The over also makes a lot of sense here considering how this Giants offense is playing at the moment. Guys like Wilmer Flores and Mike Yastrzemski are absolutely on fire, and nobody can seem to get them out. Even Evan Longoria has been solid since missing the first week of the season, and he just homered again on Friday night. Anderson has now given up at least four earned runs in each of his last two starts, and the last time he faced this Diamondbacks team he gave up six. Both of these teams have pretty bad bullpens, so even if the starters manage to pitch pretty well we could still easily go over the total in the later innings.