Saturday 8/22/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 6:00PM ET:
L.A. GALAXY @ LOS ANGELES FC PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (SOCCER)

LAFC Win -1 Goal Spread
-180

The eighth installment of El Trafico will take place on Saturday afternoon, as Los Angeles FC hosts in-city rival the LA Galaxy. Interestingly, LAFC has never defeated the Galaxy in five Major League Soccer regular-season matches (two losses and three draws). However, that does not tell the real story by any means. The Black and Gold are riding a two-match winning streak in this head-to-head series, having dominated 5-3 at home in the 2019 MLS Cup playoffs and by a 6-2 margin at the recent MLS is Back Tournament in Orlando. Yes, in case anyone is struggling at math that means LAFC has won the last two chapters of El Trafico by a combined 11-5 margin. And the lesser L.A. side has only gotten worse of late. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is gone and the Galaxy are winless through five matches in 2020 (0-3-2). At the MLS is Back Tournament, they took only one point in three outings–and that was against Houston, which is currently second-to-last on the Western Conference table (the Galaxy are dead last). Adding insult to injury for the underdogs, LAFC’s Carlos Vela is back after missing the festivities in Orlando. Diego Rossi has scored eight goals through seven matches this season, so the Black and Gold are oozing talent all over the field. They are almost certainly going to be too much for their chief rivals…again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 7:00PM ET:
NASHVILLE SC @ ATLANTA UNITED PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (SOCCER)

Under 2.5, 3 Game Totals
+100

Nashville SC will be playing its third match in the span of 11 days when it visits Atlanta United on Saturday night. The Music City men are making up for lost time after being sidelined from the MLS is Back Tournament in Orlando due to coronavirus issues. To be clear, three matches in the span of 11 days are not too many–it just means the club has played more soccer than those teams who have been on break since the Orlando festivities. For Atlanta United, it has been on a break much longer than it wanted. The Five Stripes were eliminated from the tournament in round-robin play after losing all three of its matches and failing to score a single goal in the entire process. Manager Frank de Boer promptly got fired. In other words, life without star striker Josef Martinez (torn ACL in the first match of the season against none other than Nashville) has been a huge problem–and now the team is embarking on life without a full-time manager (Stephen Glass, who coaches the club’s developmental team) is the interim manager. Atlanta went into Nashville and won 2-1, but that marked Nashville’s first official match as an expansion franchise. This club has since settled down, to the tune of allowing just one goal in its past three outings (it has scored only once during this stretch, as well). Combine that with the fact that Atlanta has not scored in its last 305 minutes of match time (not even including stoppage time!) in MLS competition and what you likely get is another low-scoring affair without Martinez on the pitch.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 8:00PM ET:
ORLANDO CITY FC @ INTER MIAMI CF PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (SOCCER)

Draw Money Line
+235

Expansion side Inter Miami, owned by David Beckham, are looking for their first win in franchise history after losing their first five games of the 2020 season. Despite their last-place in the league record, they’ve been better than their lack of points would suggest, losing each of their five games by just one goal. Their opening game of the MLS is Back tournament was a 2-1 late stoppage time loss to Orlando City, who went on to reach the final of the tournament. Orlando finished in 11th in the Eastern Conference last year, missing the playoffs, but their two group stage wins playing as the host team in the tournament have catapulted them up to fifth place this year. Miami are desperate to start winning games, and they just pulled of a marquee signing last week, bringing in French international Blaise Matuidi from Juventus. These two teams are more evenly matched than the standings would suggest, and with one riding high after a successful tournament and the other inching closer to points every game they play, expect Miami to come away with their first-ever MLS point in a draw.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 9:00PM ET:
REAL SALT LAKE @ COLORADO RAPIDS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (SOCCER)

Salt Lake Win Money Line
+245

This is a classic offense versus defense contest. In five games thus far, Colorado has scored eight goals and allowed nine, while Salt Lake has both scored and given up just three. Salt Lake’s defensive-minded strategy worked for them last season, finishing in third in the Western Conference despite tying for second-to-last in goals scored. Salt Lake’s 5-2 elimination to San Jose in the MLS is Back Tournament was a shocking exception to that, but they’ve now had almost a month to get their defense back on track. Colorado scored twelve more goals than Salt Lake in 2019, but finished a full six points out of the final playoff spot. Their last meeting in Colorado was last May: Colorado’s style of play dictated the final score, but it was Salt Lake who came away with a 3-2 win. With the two team’s primary strategies largely unchanged from last year, and no home fans to further motivate Colorado’s offensive attack, look for Salt Lake to win their fifth consecutive matchup with Colorado.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 8:00PM ET:
DALLAS STARS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (NHL)

DAL Stars Win Money Line
+145

Over 5.5 Game Totals
+110

Money Line Pick
The second round of the Western Conference playoffs will start here with the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars. Colorado is favored, but I’m rolling with the underdog here. Dallas has a ton of momentum, as they enter this one off three straight wins over the Calgary Flames. Colorado’s series ended earlier, but I think the extra rest could actually hurt them, as I expect them to be a little bit rusty at the beginning of this game. Colorado earned rave reviews for their wings over the Coyotes, but I think that had a lot more to do with Arizona’s incompetence than anything Colorado was doing well. These teams met four times during the regular season and the Stars won all four of those contests, so I don’t think they deserve to be nearly this big of an underdog here. Take the value.


Over Under Pick
The over also makes a lot of sense here considering the way both of these offenses are playing. Getting juice on the over 5.5 is a steal in my opinion. Dallas just scored seven goals in their series-clinching win over Calgary, and they’ve scored at least five in three of their past five contests overall. Colorado’s offense has somehow been even better, with an absurd 14 goals over their past two games. Both of these sides are firing on all cylinders right now, and I don’t see any reason to expect them to suddenly tighten up too much. It’s not like Dallas was playing lights-out defense in their most recent series, as they still gave up eight goals over their last three wins. I think we see another shootout here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 6:00PM ET:
UFC ON ESPN 15: CARLTON MINUS VS. MATTHEW SEMELSBERGER

Minus Win Money Line
-120

Money Line Pick
The second fight at UFC on ESPN 15 will see Carlton Minus take on Matthew Semelsberger. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Minus is 10-1 in the MMA and will make his UFC debut here. He has had plenty of success finishing fights, winning by KO/TKO six times. He also has one submission win. He also has been able to finish fights quickly, ending seven opponents in the first round.

His opponent is Matthew Semelsberger, who is 6-2 in the MMA. He also has experience with finishing opponents, winning by KO/TKO four times and submission once. He comes into this debut having won three fights in a row and his last two have been by KO/TKO. Semelsberger does not finish fights as quickly however, with just one win in the first-round. This is really just a toss up seeing that we do not have a ton of information on either fighter.

Seeing that Minus has finished more fights and can get the job done quickly, it would be a very small lean to him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 7:30PM ET:
UFC ON ESPN 15: AUSTIN HUBBARD VS. JOE SOLECKI

Solecki Win Money Line
-152

Money Line Pick
The fifth fight on the preliminary card at UFC on ESPN 15 will see Austin Hubbard take on Joe Solecki. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Hubbard comes in 12-4 in the MMA and 2-2 in the UFC. He won his last fight by TKO against Max Rohskopf in June of this year after Rohskopf was forced to retire in-between rounds. Hubbard has just decent striking however, averaging 3.53 significant strikes per minute. He does not absorb much either, just 2.53 strikes per minute. He does have some ability to fight on the ground, averaging 0.82 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown defense is only 50%, which could pose some problems in this particular fight.

Joe Solecki is 9-2 in the MMA and 1-0 in the UFC. He won his UFC debut by unanimous decision back in December of 2019. He beat Matt Wiman in this fight. Solecki is averaging 3.67 significant strikes per minute. His striking accuracy has been unreal so far, landing 76% of his strikes. He also was basically not touched in that first fight, absorbing just 0.64 strikes per minute. He also averages 3.99 takedowns per every 15 minute, landing them at an accuracy of 83%.

Joe Solecki has already looked like the much more balanced fighter, so I will back him with medium confidence to win this fight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 8:00PM ET:
UFC ON ESPN 15: AMANDA LEMOS VS. MIZUKI INOUE

Fight to go the Distance - No Fight Prop
+148

The featured preliminary at UFC on ESPN 15 will see Amanda Lemos take on Mizuki Inoue. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division. Inoue comes into this fight 14-5 in the MMA and 1-0 in the UFC. She won her UFC debut by split decision against Yanan Wu. This fight was well over a year ago at UFC Fight Night 157 in April of 2019. Her striking has been phenomenal to start her UFC career, averaging 6.20 significant strikes per minute. There is a few issues with this however. She has a striking accuracy of just 45% and she absorbs 8.20 strikes per minute. Inoue has nine wins by submission in her career, with the other five coming by decision. She has yet to lose a fight inside the distance too so she has managed to go to the distance quite often.

On the other side is Amanda Lemos, who is 7-1-1 in the MMA and 1-1 in the UFC. She actually got her first UFC win in her most recent fight, beating Miranda Granger by Technical Submission at UFC Fight Night 165 in December of 2019. Her striking has also been amazing, landing 6.55 significant strikes per minute. Her striking accuracy is better at 64%, but she absorbs even more strikes per minute at 9.05. What Lemos has going for her is her ability to fight on the ground. She averages 2.59 takedowns per every 15 minutes, with an accuracy of 100%.

Note that eight of Lemos’ nine fights have ended inside the distance with the only one going to the judge’s scorecards ending in a draw. Inoue also has a 50% finish rate with nine of her 18 professional fights ending before the final round. With both fighters absorbing so much damage, I do not trust either to stay standing. I am actually going to take a shot on this fight to end inside the distance, but would only do so as a very small lean.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 8:30PM ET:
UFC ON ESPN 15: DANIEL RODRIGUEZ VS. TAKASHI SATO

Fight to go the Distance - No Fight Prop
-158

The first fight on the main card at UFC on ESPN 15 will see Daniel Rodriguez take on Takashi Sato. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Rodriguez comes in 12-1 in the MMA and 2-0 in the UFC. He most recently beat Gabriel Green at UFC on ESPN 9 by unanimous decision. Rodriguez is a very high volume striking guy, averaging 8.60 significant strikes per minute. At the same time, he absorbs 6.81 strikes per minute. He also averages 1.94 takedowns per every 15 minutes, landing them at 83% and defending them at 66%.

Takashi Sato comes into this fight 16-3 in the MMA and 2-1 in the UFC. He made quick work of his opponent in his last fight, beating Jason Witt by TKO 48 seconds into the first-round. This fight was back in June of this year. Sato is not as good of a striker, but is still averaging 3.94 significant strikes per minute. He also absorbs quite a lot, 5.10 strikes per minute. He is not known for his grappling game, averaging 0.79 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but he defends them at 80%.

Both guys have seen plenty of finishes in their careers, 16 of Sato’s 19 fights (all three of his UFC fights), and 10 of Rodriguez’s 13 fights (one of two of his UFC fights). I believe this fight has the potential of being one of the best on the card and the only way I see this fight ending is inside the distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 9:15PM ET:
UFC ON ESPN 15: MARIYA AGAPOVA VS. SHANA DOBSON

Agapova Win by KO/TKO Fight Prop
+150

The second fight on the main card at UFC on ESPN 15 will see Mariya Agapova take on Shana Dobson. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division. Agapova comes in by far the biggest favorite, posting an MMA record of 9-1 to start her career. She most recently won her UFC debut back in June of this year, a submission win against Hannah Cifers. She lands an average of 3.84 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 51%. She does absorb 4.35 strikes per minute, but has never been knocked out in her career.

Her opponent, Shana Dobson, is 3-4 in her MMA career and just 1-3 in the UFC. She has lost three fights in a row, most recently in February of this year. Dobson is a similar striker to her opponent, averaging 3.63 significant strikes per minute. Her main issue is striking defense, absorbing 5.62 strikes per minute. Her grappling game is also well below average, with just 0.39 takedowns per every 15 minutes at an accuracy of 25%.

No way I would even consider backing Dobson here, seeing how outmatched she is. I also have no interest in laying over -1000 with Agapova. There is really not many betting angles in this fight because the prices are much too high. If I had to pick one play, it would be Agapova to win this fight by KO/TKO because Dobson absorbs too much damage.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 10:00PM ET:
UFC ON ESPN 15: MARCIN PRACHNIO VS. MIKE RODRIGUEZ

Rodriguez by Finish Fight Prop
-145

The third fight of the main card at UFC on ESPN 15 will see Mike Rodriguez take on Marcin Prachnio. This will be a fight in the UFC Light Heavyweight division. Rodriguez is the clear favorite here though he is 10-4 in the MMA and 1-2 in the UFC. He lost his most recent fight by KO to Da un Jung at UFC Fight Night 165 in December of 2019. He relies heavily on striking, averaging 4.30 significant strikes per minute. That translates to the fact that he has eight KO/TKO wins in his career. He actually also has two submission wins meaning when he wins, he wins by finish.

His opponent, Marcin Prachino, is 13-4 in the MMA, but has yet to win in the UFC. With a record of 0-2, he desperately needs a win here because he could find himself on the way out. His striking is pretty lacking, averaging 2.39 significant strikes per minute. His striking accuracy is also only 39%. There is also the fact that he has not fought since September of 2018, so quite a long layoff. Both of his UFC losses have come by KO in the first-round, so I am not expecting a good effort here.

Rodriguez looks to be the better fighter by far, but his money line is quite high so I will just back him to finish this fight inside the distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 10:45PM ET:
UFC ON ESPN 15: OVINCE SAINT PREUX VS. ALONZO MENIFIELD

Saint Preux Money Line
+102

Money Line Pick
The Co-Main Event at UFC on ESPN 15 will see Ovince Saint Preux take on Alonzo Menifield. This will be a fight in the UFC Light Heavyweight division. Saint Preux comes into this fight 24-14 in the MMA and 12-9 in the UFC. He tried his luck in the Heavyweight division last time out, but lost to Ben Rothwell. This fight was back in May of this year and the fight ended in a split decision loss. Saint Preux now returns to where he is more comfortable, the Light Heavyweight division. He is not exactly a great striker, averaging 2.60 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs 2.91 strikes per minute, so his defense is solid as well. While he did not land a takedown in his recent Heavyweight fight, Saint Preux averages 1.27 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but only at an accuracy of 40%.

His opponent, Alonzo Menifield, is 9-1 in the MMA and 2-1 in the UFC. He is coming off the first loss of his career, a loss back in June of this year to Devin Clark by unanimous decision. Menifield is a decent striker, averaging 3.75 significant strikes per minute. He also absorbs 3.75 strikes, which could be worrisome against a guy like Saint Preux with knockout power. Menifield does not like to fight on the ground, but he does a great job at defending takedowns (85% takedown defense). Saint Preux has seen 14 of his 21 UFC fights end inside the distance and two of the three fights in the Octagon for Menifield have seen a finish as well.

Both fighters looked lackluster in their previous fights, but with Saint Preux making the move back to Light Heavyweight, I think he has the edge here. Menefield looked exhausted in his last fight as well, seeing that it did not end in the first round, so my picked would be Ovince Saint Preux.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 11:30PM ET:
UFC ON ESPN 15: FRANKIE EDGAR VS. PEDRO MUNHOZ

Fight to go the Distance - Yes Fight Prop
+138

The Main Event at UFC on ESPN 15 will see Frankie Edgar take on Pedro Munhoz. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Munhoz is the #5 contender in the division, entering this fight with a career MMA record of 18-4. He is 8-4 in the UFC, most recently losing to Aljamain Sterling by unanimous decision. That fight was over a year ago though, so it will be interesting to see how Munhoz bounces back. Munhoz mainly relies on a stand-up game, averaging 5.29 significant strikes per minute. As a result, he absorbs 6.17 strikes per minute, which could be dangerous. He still has never been finished inside the distance, so his chin has proven to be strong. His grappling game is not as prevalent, averaging 0.92 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is very weak at 21%, while his takedown defense is very strong at 81%. Over his 12 UFC fights, he has six fights that have gone the distance and six that have ended inside the distance.

His opponent, Frankie Edgar, is the #8 contender in the Bantamweight division. He is 23-8-1 in the MMA and 17-8-1 in the UFC. He has struggled recently, losing his last two fights in a row and three of his last four. Edgar has been a little bit more balanced, averaging 3.60 significant strikes and 2.34 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He is absorbing 2.48 strikes per minute, but was knocked out in his last fight. That was only his second time being knocked out in the UFC, so he tends to be able to go the distance. In fact, 17 of his fights in the UFC have gone the distance, with nine ending in some kind of finish.

Munhoz has never been finished in his career and Edgar just twice, so I would actually look for this fight to go a full five rounds an end on the judges’s scorecards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 4:00PM ET:
DRYDENE 311 JIMMIE JOHNSON (NASCAR)

Jimmie Johnson Top 5
+300

The swan song season for Jimmie Johnson has had all kinds of bumps in the road along the way. From bad finishes to Covid-19, Johnson is in the fight for one of the final playoff positions, but a win would secure it much easier for him. Jimmie was a top-five car throughout last Sunday’s race at the Daytona Road Course and was able to finish 5th. With this double-header at Dover, the track’s most historic driver should be in for a good weekend. Johnson has the most wins in the history of the Monster Mile, as he has conquered it 11 times. With back-to-back days of racing at the track, he has a real chance to maybe make it an even 12 wins at the one-mile oval. He is in need of another strong weekend, and this could be the place where it happens. He has five top 10’s in the last seven Dover races. The track is also the sight of his last victory. It’s going to be tough to top Harvick and Hamlin, but Johnson is a good longshot bet for a top-five finish.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 22ND - 4:00PM ET:
DRYDENE 311 DENNY HAMLIN (NASCAR)

Denny Hamlin Top 5
+100

For all the strong finishes Denny Hamlin has had at the Monster Mile, he has yet to taste victory lane at Dover. The closest he has come was in October 2018, when he finished a close second to Chase Elliott. The same thing happened last Sunday, as Hamlin came up just short at the Daytona Road Course. Denny will start on the front row for the second-straight race, and that surely helped at Daytona, so he is likely to be around the front for much of Saturday’s race. Hamlin led 218 laps fall and was able to grab a solid top five. A top-five in the first of two races this weekend is a smart bet.