If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
ATLANTA -2.5
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
11:29 AM
I understand why people want to back Chicago here with the way Atlanta has looked, but I'm going to give them a pass. There aren't many defenses that will look good if you make them play the Seahawks and Cowboys back-to-back, so I'm not writing off this unit's improvement in the second half of last season. The Bears are 2-0, but it took the Lions being down their top three cornerbacks for Mitchell Trubisky to finally start moving the ball in Week 1, and he didn't look particularly impressive last week either. We're getting less than a field goal in a Matt Ryan vs. Mitchell Trubisky matchup in Atlanta -- to me, it doesn't even matter if Julio Jones plays.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
30-14-1 IN LAST 45 CHI ATS PICKS | +1492
29-16 IN LAST 45 ATL ATS PICKS | +1125
UNDER 55
DETROIT @ ARIZONA | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
FRI 9/25
This is a massive total for this matchup. The Lions have scored 44 points through two weeks, ranking 22nd in the league, while the Cardinals have given up just 35 points, the second-best mark in the NFL. Yes, Kenny Golladay appears on track to make his season debut, but I don't expect him near 100% as he's been limited in practice all week. Kyler Murray shouldn't have a ton of pushback against a Lions defense that's struggled, but this also seems like the type of game where Arizona takes the air out of the ball and churns up clock and yardage with Kenyan Drake, limiting the total amount of possessions in the game.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
3-0 IN LAST 3 ARI O/U PICKS | +300
DENVER +5.5
TAMPA BAY @ DENVER | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
FRI 9/25
The Broncos have battled a bunch of injuries each and every week, yet they've covered both their games despite starting 0-2 SU. Jeff Driskel did a good job in relief last week, keeping his team close against a strong Steelers defense. He should be able to use his legs more this week as Denver builds their offensive gameplan around him. The Bucs have been inconsistent defensively, while Tom Brady hasn't really impressed with his new team yet. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS as a home 'dog under Vic Fangio, and I like them to pull off another cover here, as I think this line is a couple points too high.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
20-8-4 IN LAST 32 TB ATS PICKS | +1108
UNDER 53
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/27 | 8:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:28 PM
The Pack cannot continue to score 40-plus per game, right? QB Aaron Rodgers is unlikely to have his favorite battery mate, WR Davante Adams (hamstring). Saints QB Drew Brees for sure won’t have his, WR Michael Thomas (ankle). Though Rodgers has announced loud and clear after the drafting of Jordan Love that he remains da man, Brees cannot disguise his decline, however slight. Both defenses rank among the top 10 for fewest yards allowed, and the Saints stand third in yards yielded per play.
11-5-1 IN LAST 17 NFL PICKS | +560
3-1 IN LAST 4 GB O/U PICKS | +190
UNDER 43.5
CAROLINA @ L.A. CHARGERS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:26 PM
With QB Philip Rivers gone from L.A., Anthony Lynn is an avowed run-first coach. The Chargers have kept the ball on the ground more than any team and will stay the course with QB Justin Herbert in his second start. Herbert, who learned he would start minutes before kickoff last Sunday, had no time to grow nervous. This week, anxiety could set in. No RB is more indispensable than Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey, who is out (ankle). His 403 touches last year led the league.
11-5-1 IN LAST 17 NFL PICKS | +560
9-4 IN LAST 13 LAC O/U PICKS | +460
ATLANTA -3
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:23 PM
Chicago is the shakiest 2-0 team, having been outplayed for three quarters by Detroit and barely dodging the sorry Jets. No way the Bears’ offense can keep pace with its potent counterpart. The Falcons can win without eventual Hall of Fame receiver Julio Jones (hamstring), but he would help. A game-time decision, Jones has often played in this scenario. Atlanta will be eager to distance itself from the onside kick debacle in Dallas a week ago.
10-4 IN LAST 14 NFL ATS PICKS | +570
7-1 IN LAST 8 ATL ATS PICKS | +591
PITTSBURGH -3.5
HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
12:22 PM
One needs to consider the opponents both these teams have faced thus far when making evaluations. For the Steelers, it's been the Broncos and Giants; for the Texans, it's been the Ravens and Chiefs. So despite the former being 2-0 and the latter 0-2, that's where you would expect both to be at this point. The problem is that Houston has looked relatively noncompetitive, while Pittsburgh seems to have found its groove again. WIth JuJu Smith-Schuster active, I have the Steelers as a 5.5-point favorite at home, giving me two points of value even despite the awful hook. Desperation is the only thing that could save the Texans in this one.
12-6-1 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS | +560
5-0-1 IN LAST 6 HOU ATS PICKS | +500
5-3 IN LAST 8 PIT ATS PICKS | +169
L.A. RAMS +1.5
L.A. RAMS @ BUFFALO | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
11:58 AM
Thought this line go to 3 due to everyone's infatuation with Josh Allen and West Coast teams flying across the country, but instead, it went in the proper direction. Simply put, the Rams are the better team this game. The Bills' profile has been elevated thanks to their first two opponents, but Allen is going to face a lot of pressure from L.A.'s defensive front. Meanwhile, Buffalo's defense has not played nearly as well as it did last year. Sean McVay and Jared Goff have adjusted to the adjustments that were made to the Rams in 2019, and they should prove that on Sunday. Loved this at +2.5, but I have L.A. favored in this game, so I'll take it here.
12-6-1 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS | +560
8-4 IN LAST 12 LAR ATS PICKS | +347
BUFFALO -1
L.A. RAMS @ BUFFALO | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
11:24 AM
This line has dropped by almost a field goal since last week, but I'm not so sure it's warranted. The Bills will see the return of linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano in this game, and we already know about Josh Allen's play now that he has a top target in Stefon Diggs. The Rams are getting a big bump for roughing up an Eagles team, but is Philly that good? Now L.A. has to travel back east again against a talented team with a good coach. Lay the point.
6-2 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +385
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAR ATS PICKS | +89
Comment