Service Plays Saturday 10/17/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Insider Sports Report

5* Duke/North Carolina St. OVER 59.5 (NCAAF)
Range: 58 to 62

3* South Carolina +2.5 over Auburn (NCAAF)
Range: +4 to PK

3* Central Florida -2 over Memphis (NCAAF)
Range: -.5 to -4.5

[Istandfortheanthem]

KING CREOLE


NAVY MIDSHIPMEN @ EAST CAROLINA PIRATES
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
Saturday, Oct. 17th / 12:00pm ET / 9:0am PT / #117-118
*Optimum OU Line: 55.5 or less points


Last week, we joined the high-scoring party that is now commonplace in the new-look SEC Conference. That Best Best was on the OVER in the Texas A&M / Florida game. We ended up cashing that one by 3 full TD’s. In fact, last Saturday was the highest0scoring day EVER in the SEC Conference. While a lot of the squares are now jumping on SEC ‘Overs’ this week, they may be a week late to the party. For us, we’re heading to the American Athletic Conference for this week’s play. And this EAST CAROLINA / NAVY game has so much going for it… that we are compelled to bump this one up to 3* Best Bet status. After all, our database models strongly point to an outcome in which we see at least 67 to 68 total points. And that’s more than 10 points HIGHER than the current OU line. In fact, the line in this one keep going down… and that’s ok by me. For every half point that the OU line crees down, our VAKUE increases even more…


Based on this year’s numbers alone, we are ’Statistically OBLIGATED’ to come our with a Big Play in this one. For instance, not many people know that NEITHER team has gone UNDER in a game this season. That’s right. East Carolina and Navy are a combined PERFECT 7-0 O/U so far in the 2020 season. That’s what you get when you see two very bad defenses taking in each other. Navy checks in allowing 37.0 points per game and 442.5 yards per game on defense. For the Pirates of East Carolina, it’s even worse. They are allowing 41.3 points per game on defense. The only three college teams that are allowing MORE are Mississippi (51.7 ppg allowed), North Texas (46.5 pg), and Kansas (44.0). Not only that, buy the Pirates are also one of only three teams that are allowing MORE than 500 offensive yards per game this season. No wonder that they are a perfect 3-0 O/U this year. But what’s even more impressive to OVER bettors are the MARGINS. The average OU line for an East Carolin game has been 69.0. Average combined points: 75.0. And THIS week’s line is about 13 points LOWER than their year-to-date average. So WHY is the OU line so low in this one? Well, for one…. let’s not forget that Navy is a TRIPLE-OPTION team on offense. And it can be dangerous at times to play an OVER with these triple-option teams. But with that said… NUMBER ONE: The time to consider an UNDER is a game in which BOTH teams run the triple-option. Its why so many of the ‘Military vs Military’ games go UNDER at such a high percentage. And NUMBER TWO, to counter Navy’s triple-option, sharp bettors are already aware that East Carolina runs a very FAST offense. They are one of only 15 teams in college football that are playing at a very quick 80-plays-a-game or more on the year (80.3 to be exact). And those numbers are even quicker when the Pirates are playing the role of the host. Their HOME games have seen 85.0 plays per game on offense. And that’s tied for 4th quickest in all of football (#1 LSU 91.0 / #2 Virginia 90.5 / #3 Central Florida 86.0)…


In the last five seasons, EAST CAROLINA home games (22 of ‘em) have averaged a combined 69.2 points per game. When allowing 160 or more rushing yards in a game, the Pirates are averaging a combine…d 69.9 points per game. And dating back to last season, East Carolina has gone OVER in seven straight games (7-0 O/U). On the flip side, when instead as ROAD FAVORITES in a game… NAVY has seen a combined average of 77.4 points per game! In terms of this Navy vs East Carolina SERIES, the OVER has gone 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Check out some of the gaudy point totals in some of those meetings: 101 total points… 97 total points… 84 total points… 73 total points… and 66 total points. Based on the current pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is Navy 29.5 - East Carolina 26.5. Our in-season database models and simulations differ quite significantly. More like: NAVY MIDSHIPMEN 34.0 - EAST CAROLINA PIRATES 33.0. That’s a margin that’s about 11 points higher than the current OU line. And that major difference of more than 10 points has us bumping this one UP to 3* BEST BET status

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Over2Tips
SPAIN: LaLiga
Celta Vigo - Atletico Madrid
Over 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Feinberg

Alabama

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al

CFB
Texas state
Memphis
Miss state
Bama

MLB
Atlanta

[Istandfortheanthem]

Anybody get their hands on Paul Leiners 3000* for an afternoon game? Thanks in advance!

[Longslab242]

BROCK PAGE PATREON

DAILY BEST PLAY: Clemson -27
EXTRA DAILY BEST PLAY: ASTROS/TAMPA BAY RAYS - UNDER 8

[FATMANWINS]

ats
12 boston college
8 navy
8 nc state
8 wake

[FATMANWINS]

ats
4 tampa

[Juicemaker]

Dr Bob
Mississippi State
Arkansas
Marshall
East. Carolina
Auburn

[TAWJR]

ats
12 boston college
8 navy
8 nc state
8 wake

is the 12 rating GOY TIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

DOUBLE PLAY:
West Virginia -22.5

SINGLE PLAYS:
Virginia Tech -12
Temple -11
Wake Forest +2.5
UAB -13.5
Texas A&M -5
Georgia +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GameOfTheYear

Georgia Tech +27.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lv betting syndicate

Temple
South Carolina
Ucf
Wake forest (game of month)
Middle Tennessee
North Carolina vs Florida State Over
Southern miss
Boston college

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt

ALABAMA -4.5
GEORGIA @ ALABAMA | 10/17 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:41 PM
This will be a huge test for Georgia QB Stetson Bennett IV, as Alabama does a great job of forcing you to be consistently accurate, because they are able to condense things across the field. Even though coach Nick Saban will not be on the sidelines for this game, his team will be in good hands with Steve Sarkisian, the offensive coordinator who is stepping into his place. Look for Georgia's cornerbacks to get tested throughout the game by Alabama's speedy receivers.

3-0 IN LAST 3 CFB ATS PICKS | +300
5-0 IN LAST 5 BAMA ATS PICKS | +500

12-7 IN LAST 19 UGA ATS PICKS | +440

GA. SOUTHERN -31
MASSACHUSETTS @ GA. SOUTHERN | 10/17 | 4:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:40 PM
This will be UMass' first game of the season and what an unlucky draw they have with Georgia Southern, who is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt Conference. The Eagles also run an explosive triple-option attack, that can also be considered a quadruple-option because of QB Shai Werts ability to throw the football as well. With the Sun Belt race wide open, I don't expect to see the Eagles take their foot off the gas against the Minutemen.

3-0 IN LAST 3 CFB ATS PICKS | +300
5-1 IN LAST 6 GAS ATS PICKS | +390

3-1 IN LAST 4 UMASS ATS PICKS | +189

LOUISVILLE +16.5
LOUISVILLE @ NOTRE DAME | 10/17 | 2:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:39 PM
Notre Dame has a really good offensive line, maybe the best OL in the nation, and a strong run game with a stable of talented backs. They should have success against Louisville's defense that has been a bit vulnerable in that regard. Where Louisville has a puncher's chance is with their offense. With QB Malik Cunningham, WR Tutu Atwell and RB Javien Hawkins, that's more than enough explosive athletes than Notre Dame will be able to contain defensively.

3-0 IN LAST 3 CFB ATS PICKS | +300
4-1 IN LAST 5 ND ATS PICKS | +285

4-2 IN LAST 6 LVILLE ATS PICKS | +179

UAB -13.5
W. KENTUCKY @ UAB | 10/17 | 1:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:39 PM
Western Kentucky had all kinds of problems last weekend vs Marshall and their ground game. Similar challenge this week as UAB's RB Spencer Brown is one of the more physical backs in college football, and is the Blazers all-time leading rusher. On the other side of the ball, quietly UAB has played very good defense, even frustrating teams like Miami at times. Right now, UAB is just a much better team overall.

3-0 IN LAST 3 CFB ATS PICKS | +300
4-3 IN LAST 7 WKY ATS PICKS | +69

WEST VIRGINIA -22
KANSAS @ WEST VIRGINIA | 10/17 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:38 PM
What we've seen so far this year in the Big 12 is that there are 3 teams who are playing really good defense: Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia. This week the Mountaineers face a Kansas Jayhawks squad that won't have their head coach Les Miles on the sideline due to Covid, and have struggled all season long with consistency on both sides of the ball. The question then becomes, how quickly does WVU cover.

3-0 IN LAST 3 CFB ATS PICKS | +300

ARMY -8
ARMY @ UT-SAN ANTONIO | 10/17 | 1:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:37 PM
I love the defensive rebound we've seen from Army since their loss to Cincinnati 2 games ago. Offensively, while they struggled a bit against the Citadel, they were able to make enough plays to get the job done. The Citadel runs the same triple option as Army, so it was an understandably close game. Where UTSA has an issue is in the run defense department, which is not what you want to hear when facing Army.

3-0 IN LAST 3 CFB ATS PICKS | +300
3-1 IN LAST 4 ARMY ATS PICKS | +190

NAVY -2.5
NAVY @ EAST CAROLINA | 10/17 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:36 PM
Tough matchup for the ECU PIrates this week, as they face Navy's triple-option offense. I was impressed with the way Navy bounced back last week in a win vs Temple, after getting thumped by Air Force the week before. ECU enters this game with some injury concerns, especially at QB, which will limit their ability to consistently sustain drives against the Midshipmen. Plus, their defense won't be able to contain the option.

3-0 IN LAST 3 CFB ATS PICKS | +300
10-7-1 IN LAST 18 NAVY ATS PICKS | +230