Sunday 12/20/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Dec 20 '20, 4:25 PM in 3h
NFL | Chiefs vs Saints
Play on: Saints +3 -110 at Bovada

Free Pick on Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy

Dec 20 '20, 4:25 PM in 3h
NFL | Chiefs vs Saints
Play on: UNDER 52½ -110

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
This is being pegged as a shootout, as you would expect in a game between the juggernaut Chiefs and the Saints in a domed environment in New Orleans. I'm not so sure we're going to see that type of game unfold, however. The Chiefs offense isn't invincible and it will be up against a stout Saints defense that will have a sour taste in its mouth after last week's tough loss in Philadelphia (we won with the Eagles in that game). Note that Kansas City is dealing with a cluster of injuries and absences on its offensive line and now faces a nightmare matchup against a dominant Saints pass rush. Meanwhile, New Orleans is expected to welcome back QB Drew Brees, who had been playing well prior to his injury, but I'm not sure he's interested or capable of going toe-to-toe with Pat Mahomes in a back-and-forth shootout at this stage of his career, especially with WR Michael Thomas sidelined (he's been placed on injured reserve). The Saints should give the Chiefs a heavy dose of RB Alvin Kamara, both running the football and in the short passing game in this one. With both defenses focused on eliminating their opponents' big play potential look for plenty of long drives ultimately helping keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Dec 20 '20, 8:20 PM in 7h
NFL | Browns vs Giants
Play on: Giants +6½ -103 at pinnacle

1* on Giants +6½ -103

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 8	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) (.50 Cent Minimum)
Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $15,500 • Post: 10:09
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 20, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * NEON DREAMS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has ru n a Good Race within the last 30 days. QUICK CALISIA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. A FAST BROAD: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CLAY'S MOON STONE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's thir d or fourth start after a layoff.
3	NEON DREAMS	2/1	3/1
7	QUICK CALISIA	12/1	7/1
5	A FAST BROAD	5/1	9/1
2	CLAY'S MOON STONE	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LA ROSA DRIVE	1	5/2	Front-runner	73	56	76.8	56.8	48.8
6	WICKED FLASHBACK	6	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	64	69	55.8	54.8	43.3
7	QUICK CALISIA	7	12/1	Stalker	73	69	52.8	64.4	53.4
5	A FAST BROAD	5	5/1	Stalker	67	73	44.8	64.0	54.5
3	NEON DREAMS	3	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	79	64.4	71.2	68.2
2	CLAY'S MOON STONE	2	8/1	Trailer	73	71	44.7	62.0	57.5
8	GLORIOUS ROSE	8	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	71	73	47.1	56.7	47.7
4	MOCHA KISS	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	48	61.5	48.1	33.1
9	GEORGIANO	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	50	55.2	46.4	29.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

Aqueduct - Race 8	Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (8-10), Double Wagers
Maiden Special • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $70,000 • Post: 3:17P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ERNIE BANKER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in t he top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NOT PHAR NOW: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distanc e/surface. NEURO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. AMERICAN PIPER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the hors e's third or fourth start after a layoff.
11	ERNIE BANKER	6/1	5/1
9	NOT PHAR NOW	9/2	6/1
6	NEURO	4/1	6/1
7	AMERICAN PIPER	20/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	NOT PHAR NOW	9	9/2	Front-runner	87	78	75.0	72.5	66.5
8	ME 'N SAP	8	15/1	Front-runner	0	0	69.6	64.2	49.7
11	ERNIE BANKER	11	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	86	80	62.7	79.5	74.5
4	WHICHWAYTOMALIBU	4	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	72	78.6	70.1	57.6
7	AMERICAN PIPER	7	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	80	65.3	54.3	42.8
3	BLACK IRISH	3	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	80	58.4	59.6	46.6
6	NEURO	6	4/1	Trailer	86	83	47.6	78.8	74.8
5	TRUE PALACE	5	30/1	Trailer	75	58	39.0	59.0	42.5
2	RIFT VALLEY	2	5/2	Trailer	0	0	27.5	71.1	65.6

Unknown Running Style: KING ANGELO (8/1) [Jockey: Franco Manuel - Trainer: Serpe Philip M], WICKED KARMA (30/1) [Jockey: Maragh Romero Ramsay - Trainer: Lee Joseph R].

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fair Grounds - Race #6 - Post: 3:25pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $48,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#5 NUNC PRO TUNC (ML=7/2)
#8 LOUISIANALIGHTNING (ML=9/5)


NUNC PRO TUNC - Nice return on investment for this jockey and trainer duo. This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. Leading into this race, this pony has registered 3 Equibase speed figs that are equal to or higher than today's class rating. A good sign he should compete well in this race. Just see his latest speed figure, 96. That one fits well in this group. LOUISIANALIGHTNING - It looks like Geroux had to know this gelding on Dec 3rd when riding him for the first time. Back atop again today. A win percent like 36 is fantastic for any jockey/conditioner pair. He has the top earnings per start (EPS). Give the once over to this horse.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BIBLEMAN (ML=7/2), #2 SAINTSGOTROBBED (ML=6/1), #1 MAY HOUR (ML=6/1),

BIBLEMAN - Just don't think he is worth it at the given odds. SAINTSGOTROBBED - Should have at least hit the board in the last couple of months in a sprint affair to be any kind of value at minimal odds in a sprint. The extended time off since Sep 4th is somewhat discouraging. MAY HOUR - You always figure that this animal has a shot to win, but he fails most of the time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 NUNC PRO TUNC on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 77

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 20 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES IN 2019 - 2020 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 HEY HEY 6/1
# 8 CHLOBEE 8/1
# 5 R U FORREAL 5/2

HEY HEY appears to be the bet in here. She has garnered very strong figures under today's conditions and ought to fare well against this field. In fine fettle, and coming back in next to no time again this time out. CHLOBEE - Earned a sound speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. Is tough not to look at given the company run in recently. R U FORREAL - Is a sharp contender based on numbers posted recently under today's conditions. Earned a reliable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #7 - Post: 3:23pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#2 PROMENADE PRINCESS (ML=6/1)
#11 KEEPER IN SPITE (ML=9/2)
#1 SEVILLA SANGRIA (ML=12/1)
#9 STEP BY STEP (ML=20/1)


PROMENADE PRINCESS - It looks like Ruiz had to be in the know about this filly on Dec 6th when riding her for the first time. Back aboard again today. Filly is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a big race today. KEEPER IN SPITE - Trainer Robb gave this filly a good stiff blow out. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. Ran last time out against tougher competition at Laurel. The move down in the class scale should suit her well. Filly is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big race today. SEVILLA SANGRIA - I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a return to racing. STEP BY STEP - Jock jumped on this filly's back for the first time on November 20th. Should 'know' the equine even better in today's contest. Lynch drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping information to think this thoroughbred should be one of the top contenders at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 VILLAMOURA (ML=5/2), #4 CATCH THE SKY (ML=5/1), #5 ANSELMI (ML=8/1),

VILLAMOURA - 5/2 is not offering enough value for any racer in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint affair lately. CATCH THE SKY - No good results for this less than sharp equine in a sprint event over the last couple months tells me that this filly is in a very difficult spot The seventh place result in the last race was not that great. ANSELMI - Awfully hard to wager on this horse when she hasn't been showing any signs of readiness recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #2 PROMENADE PRINCESS on the win end if we get at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)


Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Derby - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $154550 Class Rating: 101

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DERBY - GRADE 2 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. 124 LBS. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 RUNFORYOURLIFE 10/1
# 9 CIRCLE CITY 6/1
# 6 JUST BE REAL 12/1

I think RUNFORYOURLIFE is a formidable choice and is a formidable value-based wager given the 10/1 line. He looks very strong in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. He has posted very good figures under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this field. CIRCLE CITY - Will most likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the midpoint of the race. Has the look of a profitable bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds

12/20/20, FG, Race 1, 1.00 CT
12/20/20,FG,1,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 CLAIMING. Purse $24,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources) (plus up to $3,000 ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS. Three Year Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since November 20 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000, if for $25,000, allowed 2 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	4	Discreet Tiger	3/1	Arrieta F	Robertson Hugh H.	JTL	632	31.80	1.13/$1
097.9723	1	Irish Hokie	5/2	Gilligan J	Zeringue. Jr. Whitney	S	626	32.43	1.12/$1
097.6888	2	Takafumi (BRZ)	8/5	Murrill M	Correas. IV Ignacio	FEWC	632	31.80	1.13/$1
097.6561	5	D Two	7/2	Beschizza A	Wilson Shane		632	31.80	1.13/$1
094.9286	3	Drew's Shot	15/1	Hernandez C J	Briley Lonnie		632	31.80	1.13/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.75, ROI 0.95/$1
. . . .
100.0000 4 Discreet Tiger
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]*NotActualPost1
*Scratches may change this condition