Service Plays Saturday 12/19/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J.R Stevens

VIP PICKS (CFB - GAME OF THE YEAR)
Tulsa +14/ML +460

VIP PICKS (CFB)
Washington State +11/ML +315
Stanford +7/ML +220

Northwestern +19/ML +760

Iowa State +6/ML +190

Notre Dame +11/ML +330


VIP PICKS (NFL)
Denver +6/ML +220





VIP PICKS (CBB)
Butler +8/ML +290
Western Kentucky +5/ML +170

Kentucky +3/ML +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

MINNESOTA @ WISCONSIN | 12/19 | 4:00 PM EST
UNDER 47
ANALYSIS: The Badgers’ defense sits atop the FBS for fewest yards per game. The Badgers' offense has begged, borrowed and stolen only 20 points in its last three outings, and it could be missing two reliable WRs (injured) and a RB (undisclosed). The Gophers have been run-oriented since a healthy standout, NFL-bound WR Rashod Bateman, decided to shorten his season, so Wisconsin is sure to load up the box and tempt them to throw. Minnesota held Nebraska to 17 points last Saturday even with several Covid-connected absentees on defense. Temperatures expected to hover around freezing will not allow the Badgers' ice-cold offense to thaw out.

+650 23-15 IN LAST 38 CFB PICKS
YESTERDAY 4:24 PM

AIR FORCE @ ARMY | 12/19 | 3:00 PM EST
AIR FORCE -2.5
ANALYSIS: Army finds itself in the unaccustomed position of playing a week after its season make-or-break game against Navy. A letdown seems likely. The Cadets’ limitations on offense last Saturday were exposed, and the Falcons, with an extra week to gameplan, should limit Army to minimal points. Air Force has registered at least four touchdowns in four of its five games, and reaching the 20s on the scoreboard should be sufficient. The Falcons have owned this series ATS, with nine covers in the past decade.

+650 23-15 IN LAST 38 CFB PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 ARMY ATS PICKS
TUE 12/15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

UMBC @ ALBANY | 12/19 | 4:00 PM EST
UMBC -3.5
ANALYSIS: UMBC has won four in a row straight-up; Albany has had all four of its games canceled. That contrast explains the pick, though there is more. The visiting Retrievers started the season with experience, with six of their best seven players having returned. Their only setback was a credible eight-point loss to Georgetown. The Black Bears closed their previous season with six defeats outright, and preparations for this one were halted twice because of COVID-19, with 26 days down the drain. UMBC is 3-0 ATS on the road and, reaching into last year, is on a 13-3 ATS roll overall.

+425 12-7 IN LAST 19 CBB ATS PICKS
10:40 AM

SOUTH ALABAMA @ ALABAMA A&M | 12/19 | 3:00 PM EST
SOUTH ALABAMA -8.5
ANALYSIS: The visiting Jaguars, with eight games already gone by, are nearly in midseason form. They are fast-paced, averaging 82.8 points per game., which poses a challenge for the rusty Bulldogs, whose lone game occurred three weeks ago. While half of the Jags’ results are throwaways, coming against low-level opponents, they finished within nine points of Auburn and knocked off Southern Miss, both on the road. Dating to late last year, they have missed just one cover in seven away tests.

+425 12-7 IN LAST 19 CBB ATS PICKS
+89 2-1 IN LAST 3 SALAB ATS PICKS
10:37 AM

MAINE @ HARTFORD | 12/19 | 2:00 PM EST
HARTFORD -9
ANALYSIS: No team suffered more from a delayed start to its season than Maine. The Black Bears, hoping to bury the memories of a 9-22 season, have seen five games canceled. The two most productive scorers graduated, the third returned home to Serbia, and the senior leader is out for the year after shoulder surgery. For their debut, the Black Bears sent out a roster three-quarters of which were freshmen and sophomores, with nobody averaging more than 6.3 points. a year ago. The Hawks have played five games, including against UConn and Villanova, and have covered all but once.

+425 12-7 IN LAST 19 CBB ATS PICKS
10:33 AM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al

Northwestern

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

BUFFALO @ DENVER | 12/19 | 4:30 PM EST
BUFFALO -6
ANALYSIS: The Bills are buffalo-ing through their schedule, with six outright wins in the last seven games. Their offense tells the tale, and QB Josh Allen and sensational WR Stefon Diggs must be salivating with the Broncos having lost four of its top CBs — three to injury, one to PED-related suspension. Super Bowl contenders spotting less than a TD to eliminated foes are irresistible. December-like temperatures in Denver would be no bother, given where the Bills call home.

+355 9-5 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS
+474 9-4-1 IN LAST 14 BUF ATS PICKS
+80 2-1 IN LAST 3 DEN ATS PICKS
THU 12/17

[FATMANWINS]

anybody see Kelso 300 ? TIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Rainey / Rainman

1☆ Iowa State +5'
3☆ Alabama -17, Clemson -10
5☆ Texas A&M -14, San Jose State +7

NFL

5☆ Bills -5'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Cbb
Early game
Louisiana tech

10* CBB PERSONAL FAVORITE!
St marys

[dawggy]

OSKEIM SPORTS



Game: (345) Buffalo Bills at (346) Denver Broncos

• Date/Time: Dec 19 2020 4:30 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Total Over 49.0 (-110)
  
  Buffalo arrives in town with a very good offense that is averaging 27.6 points and 375 total yards per game at 6.0 yards per play and 13.6 yards per point against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play to a mediocre attack. The Bills are also averaging 26.5 points and 412 total yards per game at 6.3 yards per play on the road this season and should have success moving the chains against a Denver defense that is allowing 26.7 points per game in 2020.
  
  Football Outsiders Key Offensive Metrics - Buffalo
  7th in Total DVOA (12.1%)
  5th in Weighted DVOA (12.1%)
  4th in Pass DVOA (38.2%)
  
  Denver's once-elite pass defense (8th in Pass DVOA) lost starting cornerback Duke Dawson to a torn ACL last week and joins fellow cornerbacks Bryce Callahan and AJ Bouye on the sideline. Denver has lost five cornerbacks in a span of three weeks, leaving only three active cornerbacks on its roster entering Saturday's game. Those three defensive backs include a player who was signed last week, a rookie, and a player the Broncos already cut once this season.
  
  With Buffalo's top three defensive backs out for Saturday's game, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is poised to have a big day targeting Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs. Beasley is 7th in the league in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (246) while Diggs is 12th (219). Both receivers are also ranked in the top 25 among qualified receivers (minimum 50 passes) in Catch Rate and Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
  
  NFL offenses are averaging 23.7 points per game this season, not counting defensive or special-teams touchdowns. That's more than any similar period in league history and road teams have been the biggest beneficiaries of COVID-19 restrictions at opponent's stadiums. Road teams are averaging 23.71 points per game in the COVID-19 era, which is 10.5% higher than in any other season. The increased is scoring can be attributed to a number of factors, including an overall decline in pre-snap penalties.
  
  There have been a total of 670 penalties for either neutral-zone infractions, false starts, defensive offside or offensive offside, a drop of 10.2% from 2019. Turnovers are down by 17.1% and coaches are beginning to utilize analytics and becoming more aggressive on fourth down. Indeed, fourth down attempts have increased by 26% over 2019 figures and that trend will likely continue in the future.
  
  Finally, Denver quarterback Drew Lock is coming off a solid performance in which he was 21-of-27 passing for 280 yards at 9.6 yards per pass play and four touchdowns. Lock will be in even better shape for Saturday's game as starting left tackle Garett Bolles and starting tight end Noah Fant have both been full participants at practice this week after missing last week's game against Carolina. Bolles is Denver's best offensive lineman and Fant should feast on a Buffalo defense that is giving up over 8 yards per target to opposing tight ends.
  Take the OVER and invest with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

11th Hour

11th: NCAAF, 6u: 229 NORTHWESTERN+17.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

College Hoops

4% Under 169 Gonz
3% under 141.5 NC
3% Under 148 Wisc GB
3% Over 146.5 Port
3% Under 144 Georgia
4% under 133.5 Fla St

[dawggy]

OSKEIM SPORTS



Game: (345) Buffalo Bills at (346) Denver Broncos

• Date/Time: Dec 19 2020 4:30 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Total Over 49.0 (-110)
  
  Buffalo arrives in town with a very good offense that is averaging 27.6 points and 375 total yards per game at 6.0 yards per play and 13.6 yards per point against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play to a mediocre attack. The Bills are also averaging 26.5 points and 412 total yards per game at 6.3 yards per play on the road this season and should have success moving the chains against a Denver defense that is allowing 26.7 points per game in 2020.
  
  Football Outsiders Key Offensive Metrics - Buffalo
  7th in Total DVOA (12.1%)
  5th in Weighted DVOA (12.1%)
  4th in Pass DVOA (38.2%)
  
  Denver's once-elite pass defense (8th in Pass DVOA) lost starting cornerback Duke Dawson to a torn ACL last week and joins fellow cornerbacks Bryce Callahan and AJ Bouye on the sideline. Denver has lost five cornerbacks in a span of three weeks, leaving only three active cornerbacks on its roster entering Saturday's game. Those three defensive backs include a player who was signed last week, a rookie, and a player the Broncos already cut once this season.
  
  With Buffalo's top three defensive backs out for Saturday's game, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is poised to have a big day targeting Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs. Beasley is 7th in the league in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (246) while Diggs is 12th (219). Both receivers are also ranked in the top 25 among qualified receivers (minimum 50 passes) in Catch Rate and Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
  
  NFL offenses are averaging 23.7 points per game this season, not counting defensive or special-teams touchdowns. That's more than any similar period in league history and road teams have been the biggest beneficiaries of COVID-19 restrictions at opponent's stadiums. Road teams are averaging 23.71 points per game in the COVID-19 era, which is 10.5% higher than in any other season. The increased is scoring can be attributed to a number of factors, including an overall decline in pre-snap penalties.
  
  There have been a total of 670 penalties for either neutral-zone infractions, false starts, defensive offside or offensive offside, a drop of 10.2% from 2019. Turnovers are down by 17.1% and coaches are beginning to utilize analytics and becoming more aggressive on fourth down. Indeed, fourth down attempts have increased by 26% over 2019 figures and that trend will likely continue in the future.
  
  Finally, Denver quarterback Drew Lock is coming off a solid performance in which he was 21-of-27 passing for 280 yards at 9.6 yards per pass play and four touchdowns. Lock will be in even better shape for Saturday's game as starting left tackle Garett Bolles and starting tight end Noah Fant have both been full participants at practice this week after missing last week's game against Carolina. Bolles is Denver's best offensive lineman and Fant should feast on a Buffalo defense that is giving up over 8 yards per target to opposing tight ends.
  Take the OVER and invest with confidence.

• Game: (235) Clemson at (236) Notre Dame
  Date/Time: Dec 19 2020 4:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Notre Dame +10.5 (-110)
  
  My math model only favors Clemson by 7.5 points in this game but the point spread reflects the prevalent narrative that the Tigers were without Trevor Lawrence, James Skalski, Tyler Davis, and Mike Jones in their November loss to Notre Dame. However, Notre Dame is a much stronger team overall than the one that made the BCS Championship Game in 2012 or the one that made the College Football Playoff in 2018.
  
  Notre Dame completely took away the Tigers' ground game in the first meeting, limiting Travis Etienne to just 28 yards on 18 carries (FYI - the Irish outrushed Clemson 208 to 34!). Clemson's offensive line is ranked outside the top 50 in Line Yards and Etienne's yards after contact has dropped from 5.1 in 2019 to under 3.7 this season. Clemson also ranks outside the top 75 in rush explosiveness. Notre Dame's defense ranks in the top 5 against the run in both Line Yards and Stuff Rate, while also boasting one of the nation's best stop units in terms of Havoc created.
  
  Notre Dame's offense ranks top-20 in Line Yards and Havoc allowed, while quarterback Ian Book leads an efficient attack that is ranked in the top 30 in Passing Success Rate. Book should have success against Tyler Venables and Joseph Charleston, who have allowed opposing passer ratings over 110 when targeted this season. Book completed 69.1% of his passes and averaged 62 yards rushing in Notre Dame's final three regular-season games. Book is an incredible 30-3 SU as a starter while head coach Brian Kelly is 15-6 SU and ATS versus opponents entering off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Let's also note that Notre Dame is 55-10 SU when undefeated, with only four losses by double-digits.
  
  One key intangible in this game is Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams (1,011 total yards and 13 touchdowns this season), who may be the best back in the country in terms of picking up blitzes. Williams was 11-for-11 on blitz pickup in the first meeting, allowing Book to extend plays and pick up critical yards with his legs. Those plays don't necessarily show up in the box score but are crucial in competitive games between two elite programs.
  
  Finally, let's address the revenge storyline with the following betting nugget: college football teams seeking same-season revenge in a conference championship game are just 17-31 SU and 23-25 ATS, including 0-14 SU and 4-10 ATS versus .916 or greater opposition. Better yet, these revenge-minded squads are a money-burning 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in title games against opponents that allow fewer than 19.5 points per game and won ten or more games the previous season. If our play-against team was a double-digit favorite in the first meeting, they fall to a woeful 0-7 SU and ATS.
  
  With Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney standing at 2-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents over the last two seasons, grab the points with the Irish and invest with confidence.
• Game: (221) Stanford at (222) UCLA
  Date/Time: Dec 19 2020 7:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Stanford +7.0 (-110)
  
  My math model only favors UCLA by 4.88 points in this game and it's hard to predict the motivation level of the Bruins following last week's gut-wrenching 43-38 loss to in-state rival USC. After the game, UCLA starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson offered this: "This isn't a normal game or a normal loss. This one hurts."
  Meanwhile, Stanford enters off three consecutive road wins, including last week's 30-27 comeback victory over Oregon State. After the game, Stanford head coach Brian Shaw could not have been prouder of his team. "Our calling card is our effort. And even when we don't play perfectly, we want to fight it to the end," Shaw said.
  Stanford is poised to reach the postseason after having its ten-year bowl run ended last year. The Cardinal are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in this series, while UCLA is 1-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS in Last Home Games. Stanford is 12-2 ATS in its last fourteen December affairs and has covered the Vegas number in each of its last five trips to Los Angeles.
  Stanford quarterback Davis Mills is completing 65% of his passes this season after completing 21-of-29 passes for 292 yards in last week's win over the Beavers. More importantly, Mills has not thrown an interception this season. Finally, UCLA head coach Chip Kelly proved once again last week that he is incapable of exercising proper clock management, especially when having a lead.
  Grab the points with Stanford and invest with confidence.

• Game: (237) Tulsa at (238) Cincinnati
  Date/Time: Dec 19 2020 8:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Tulsa +14.5 (-110)
  
  These teams were scheduled to face each other last Saturday but the game was canceled due to COVID-19 issues within Cincinnati's program. The Bearcats have not played since their 36-33 win over Central Florida on November 21 and now face a grossly underrated Tulsa squad that has won six straight games (6-1 SU and ATS overall). In its last eleven games as an underdog, Tulsa is 9-2 ATS with four outright wins. Over that span, Tulsa has been a double-digit underdog nine times and has two wins and three other single-digit losses.
  
  Tulsa head coach Phil Montgomery is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog with rest. The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS versus ranked opponents since 2018 and have covered five of their past six games as conference underdogs. Let's also note that Tulsa head coach Phil Montgomery is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog with rest and the Golden Hurricane easily covered the Vegas number in their lone trip to Nippert Stadium last year despite committing five turnovers.
  Cincinnati is a run-first offense but the Bearcats are going to struggle to move the ball against a stout Tulsa defense that 0,9 yard per rush attempt better than average. Only one of seven opponents gained more than 151 rushing yards in a game against the Golden Hurricane and it's highly unlikely that Cincinnati will become the second foe to do so this season. Tulsa held potent attacks like Oklahoma State, Central Florida, and SMU to 26 points or less this season.
  
  Tulsa defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie employs a unique three-down look similar to the one used by Iowa State. Linebacker Zaven Collins has four interceptions (two returned for touchdowns), four sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss, a safety and a forced fumble, and is a legitimate national defensive player of the year candidate. Cincinnati does not own a win over a top-25 team and faces all the pressure to keep their perfect season alive.
  
  With Tulsa standing at 11-2 ATS as a conference underdog of thirteen or more points and 7-0 ATS versus .800 or greater opposition, grab the points with the Golden Hurricane and invest with confidence.

ALL BASKETBALL PLAYS

• Game: (603) Gonzaga at (604) Iowa
  Date/Time: Dec 19 2020 12:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Iowa +4.5 (-110)
  
  Iowa plus the points

• Game: (637) Mississippi at (638) Dayton
  Date/Time: Dec 19 2020 2:30 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Dayton +3.5 (-110)
  
  My math model favors Dayton by 0.50 points in this game so we are getting excellent line value with the Flyers. Dayton has played a significantly more difficult schedule as the Rebels have been racking up wins against the likes of Jackson State, UNC-Wilmington, and Central Arkansas. In fact, Mississippi has been a double-digit favorite in each of its four games this season, whereas the Flyers have been either underdogs or a pick in half of their contests in 2020.
  Dayton is coming off one of the best seasons in program history (29-2 overall, 18-0 in conference) and returns several key players from that squad. Experience comes from starting seniors Jalen Crutcher (15.1 ppg), Ibi Watson (10.1 ppg), Rodney Chatman (7.7 ppg), and Jordy Tshimanga, who started his collegiate career at Nebraska. Watson leads the team in scoring with 19.8 points per game, while Tshimanga has been dominating the boards (8.5 rpg, 0.8 bpg).
  With Dayton standing at 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win, take the Flyers plus the points and invest with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bondi

5* Alabama
3* Tulsa
3* Oregon State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

OLE MISS @ DAYTON | 12/19 | 2:30 PM EST
DAYTON +3.5
ANALYSIS: The wrong team is favored in this matchup as my simulations make Dayton the favorite at home against Ole Miss. Dayton is good enough defensively to give Ole Miss just enough trouble to win this game. Take the points.

+89 2-1 IN LAST 3 CBB ATS PICKS
12:54 AM

UCLA @ OHIO ST. | 12/19 | 4:15 PM EST
OHIO ST. +2.5
ANALYSIS: My simulations like the value on Ohio State as +2.5 dogs against a very questionable UCLA squad. I make Ohio State -2.2 points better in this matchup despite not playing at full strength. Take the points.

+89 2-1 IN LAST 3 CBB ATS PICKS
12:31 AM

GONZAGA @ IOWA | 12/19 | 12:00 PM EST
IOWA +5
ANALYSIS: Gonzaga is taking a lot of early action here (a good amount of it sharp), but the simulations simply disagree with the current number at +5. If this somehow gets to +6 or greater I will for be adding to my position. I also like Iowa +5 or more in any teasers as you can get them +10 or greater in many spots. My simulations actually make Iowa -0.3 points better in this heavyweight matchup.

+89 2-1 IN LAST 3 CBB ATS PICKS
+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 IOWA ATS PICKS
12:28 AM

GONZAGA @ IOWA | 12/19 | 12:00 PM EST
UNDER 170.5
ANALYSIS: I like the value on the Under 170.5 as my simulations suggest this total should only be 160 as both teams look to tighten up on the defensive end of the floor. Grab the Under.

+89 2-1 IN LAST 3 CBB PICKS
12:21 AM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GREAT LAKES SPORTS
NCAA football
4* Iowa St +6
3* Utah-11

NFL
3* Denver+6
3* Green Bay-9

NCAA
3* Iowa +3
3* Purdue -5
3* Cinn-2