Thursday 7/22/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 05:43 AM

MLB

NL games
Atlanta (45-48) @ Philadelphia (46-47)
— Morton is 3-0, 2.31 in his last six starts.
— Braves are 10-9 in his starts.
— under 6-3-1 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 12-5-2
— He is 1-2, 7.71 in three starts vs Philly this year.

— Braves lost four of their last six games
— Atlanta is 3-1 in its last four road games.
— over 8-4 in last 12 games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-94
— record in first 5 innings: 48-32-13

— Moore is 0-0, 3.12 in his last four starts.
— Phillies are 6-1 in his starts.
— over 6-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-3
— He is 1-0, 5.79 in 4 games (2 starts) vs Atlanta.

— Phillies are 1-3 in their last four games.
— Phillies are 26-17 at home, 20-30 on road.
— over 12-1 last 13 games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-93
— record in first 5 innings: 36-35-22

San Diego (56-42) @ Miami (41-54)
— Snell is 1-1, 6.20 in his last five starts (20.1 IP).
— Padres are 8-9 in his starts.
— over 10-5 last 15
— allowed run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 6-9-2
— He is 1-1, 4.80 in three starts vs Miami.

— Padres are 7-9 in their last 16 games.
— San Diego is 7-14 in its last 21 road games.
— over 8-5 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-98
— record in first 5 innings: 38-43-17

— They haven’t named a starter.

— Marlins are 12-19 in their last 31 games.
— Miami is 6-4 in last ten home games.
— over 9-3-2 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 22-95
— record in first 5 innings: 34-42-19

Cubs (47-49) @ St Louis (48-48)
— Alzolay is 0-5, 7.16 in his last six starts.
— Cubs are 6-10 in his starts.
— under 5-2-2 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 2-16
— record in first 5 innings: 5-7-4
— He is 0-2, 2.45 in three starts vs St Louis.

— Cubs are 5-16 in last 21 games.
— Chicago is 3-12 in its last 15 road games.
— Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-96
— record in first 5 innings: 41-43-12

— Kim won his last four starts, giving up 1 run in 24 IP.
— Cardinals are 10-6 in his starts.
— over 7-6-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-16
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-3
— He is 1-0, 0.93 in two starts (9.2 IP) vs Chicago.

— Cardinals are 12-7 in last 19 games.
— St Louis is 8-2 in its last 10 home games.
— Under is 19-11-2 in their last 32 games.
— scored run in first inning: 29-96
— record in first 5 innings: 39-39-18

San Francisco (59-35) @ Dodgers (59-37)
— DeSclafani is 2-1, 2.18 in his last three starts.
— Giants are 13-6 in his starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 12-5-2
— He is 0-2, 11.25 in three starts vs LA this year.

— Giants won six of their last nine games.
— Giants are 7-6 in last 13 road games.
— Under is 12-6 in last 18 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 28-94
— record in first 5 innings: 53-28-13

— Buehler is 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
— Dodgers are 13-6 in his starts.
— over 11-7-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-6-5
— He is 2-0, 2.20 in five starts vs SF this year.

— Dodgers split their last 12 games.
— Dodgers are 8-2 in last ten home games.
— under 9-4-1 last 14 home games
— scored run in first inning: 30-96
— record in first 5 innings: 48-32-16

AL games
Texas (35-61) @ Detroit (46-51)
— Foltynewicz gave up 10 runs in 1.2 IP in his last start.
— Texas is 6-13 in his starts.
— over 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 6-19
— record in first 5 innings: 3-12-4
— He gave up 5 runs in 5 IP, in his one start vs Detroit.

— Texas is 2-11 in its last 13 games.
— Rangers lost last five games by combined 37-3.
— Texas is 4-26 in its last 30 road games.
— over 14-5-1 last 20 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 19-96
— record in first 5 innings: 31-52-13

— bullpen game

— Detroit won its last six games.
— Detroit is 11-3 in last 14 home games.
— over 23-13-1 last 37 games
— scored run in first inning: 21-97
— record in first 5 innings: 11-2-1 last 14 at home.

Bronx (50-43) @ Boston (58-37)
—Montgomery is 0-4, 4.80 in his last four starts.
— New York is 10-7 in his starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 7-17
— record in first 5 innings: 4-11-2
— He is 0-2, 4.50 in two starts vs Boston this year.

— New York won nine of its last 11 games.
— New York is 7-5 in its last 12 road games.
— under 3-1 last four road games
— scored run in first inning: 24-93
— record in first 5 innings: 39-36-18

— bullpen game

— Boston is 4-6 in its last ten games.
— Red Sox are 9-2 in last 11 home games.
— over 5-2-1 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 33-95
— record in first 5 innings: 45-35-15

Tampa Bay (57-39) @ Cleveland (48-45)
— Fleming is 0-1, 8.16 in his last three games.
— Rays are 2-5 in his starts.
— over 4-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 3-4
— He threw 2.2 scoreless IP, in one relief stint vs Cleveland.

— Tampa Bay won 10 of its last 13 games.
— Rays are 3-11 in last 14 road games, 3-1 in last four.
— under is 5-2 in last seven games.
— scored run in first inning: 29-96
— record in first 5 innings: 37-36-23

— Quantrill is 2-0, 3.18 in his last two starts.
— Indians are 4-5 in his starts.
— over 6-3
— allowed run in first inning: 3-9
— record in first 5 innings: 5-2-2
— He allowed 2 runs in 5.1 IP, in one start vs Tampa Bay.

— Cleveland lost 15 of its last 23 games.
— Indians won its last three home games.
— over 11-4-1 last 16 home games
— scores run in first inning: 30-93
— record in first 5 innings: 34-45-14

Angels (46-48) @ Minnesota (41-55)
— Heaney is 1-4, 8.49 in his last five starts.
— Angels are 6-10 in his starts.
— over 13-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 6-16
— record in first 5 innings: 8-7-1
— He is 0-0, 3.18 in two starts vs Minnesota.

— Halos are 8-7 in last 15 games.
— Angels are 4-10 in last 14 road games.
— over 24-13-1 last 38 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-94
— record in first 5 innings: 40-42-12

— Maeda is 1-0, 1.69 in his last three starts.
— Twins are 5-10 in his starts.
— over 8-7
— allowed run in first inning: 3-15
— record in first 5 innings: 4-5-6
— He is 2-3, 4.56 in 6 games (5 starts) vs Anaheim.

— Minnesota lost five of its last seven games.
— Twins are 4-0 in last four home games.
— over 5-3-1 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 34-96
— record in first 5 innings: 29-47-20

Oakland (55-42) @ Seattle (51-45)
— Manaea is 0-4, 4.45 in his last five starts.
— A’s are 12-7 in his starts.
— under 6-3
— allowed run in first inning: 5-19
— record in first 5 innings: 9-6-4
— He is 7-5, 3.42 in 13 starts vs Seattle.

— A’s are 6-3 in last nine games.
— Oakland is 4-3 in last seven road games.
— Under is 15-7 in their last 22 games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-97
— record in first 5 innings: 42-36-19

— Flexen is 4-0, 1.36 in his last six starts.
— Mariners are 13-4 in his starts.
— over 9-5 last 14
— allowed run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 10-6-1
— He gave up 5 runs in 6 IP, in his one start vs Oakland

— Seattle is 20-9 in its last 29 games.
— Seattle is 3-1 in last four home games.
— under 3-1 last four home games
— scored run in first inning: 30-96
— record in first 5 innings: 44-45-7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 06:14 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Thursday, July 22, 2021

July 22, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: Today’s first race is a steeplechase. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B
Use: 6-Pregame; 7-Recidivist

Forecast: Recidivist makes a barn switch to K. Breen, shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time, and should be capable of dominating this field gate to wire from a cozy outside post. This will be just his third career start, so there’s plenty of room for improvement, though not much will be needed against this modest band. Pregame also has the first-time-for-a-tag angle, and while the majority of his seven career starts have been on grass or around two turns, the More Than Ready colt does have a race (his debut) to go back to that makes him reasonable dangerous in this league at this distance. Look for him to be running on late.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B+
Single: 7-Sirenic

Forecast: Sirenic drops sharply in class after earning a pair of minor checks at Parx in the first-level allowance ranks and this $12,500 company appears well within her capabilities with anything close to her best race. The L. Rice-trained filly picks up I. Ortiz, Jr., and in a field without much early speed projects to be in front early, midway, and probably late, as well. Let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Dancing Kiki; 5-Tenderness

Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance using just two in this restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claimer for fillies and mares over seven furlongs. If you field the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Dancing Kiki turns back in trip, switches to dirt, and drops to her lowest level ever while trying to regain her winning form. Against this group, she just might be able to it. Arguably most effective around one turn and with enough tactical speed to secure a good pace-prompting trip in a race that projects to have soft splits, the daughter of Blame retains “win rider” J. Lezcano and shouldn’t have any excuses. Tenderness, not particularly fast on speed figures but in good form and making her first start off a $20,000 claim by W. Potts (strong stats with this angle), has the proper stalking style for this distance and really won’t have to improve much to step up in class and win. It should be noted, though, that Lezcano, who had been riding her, opts for Dancing Kiki.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Expand the Map; 10-Pizza Bianca

Forecast: Selections are made for turf only. Trainer C. Brown has two entered in this middle distance inner turf affair for maiden juvenile fillies, the better of which appears to be Expand the Map, a Tattersalls yearling purchase for approximately $313,000 that has done pretty much what’s been asked of her leading up to today’s debut. A bullet gate work (:48 2/5, fastest of 32) last month catches the eye along with several other steady drills that should have her plenty fit. Pizza Bianca is a homebred first-timer from the C. Clement barn (22% with a massive ROI with debut runners) that is worth including on your ticket as well. She looks like a live item with J. Rosario aboard, though the steady but unspectacular series of workouts won’t likely attract an overflow of wagering dollars. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Expand the Map.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade:
Use: 3-Derrynane; 6-Enjoy Summer

Forecast: Selections are made for turf only. Here’s a field of New York-bred juvenile fillies sprinting five and one-half furlongs on grass in which those that have raced aren’t impressive, so we’ll sink or swim with a pair of first-timers from top outfits. Derrynane, a Quality Road filly, goes for the C. Clement/J. Rosario team and appears to have some talent, as indicated by a recent half mile gate work in :47 4/5 over the local main track, the second fastest of 31 for the distance (and this from a stable that rarely asks its maidens for speed in the morning). The tab, though relatively light, should have her fit enough for this abbreviated trip, so we’ll put her on top. Enjoy Summer certainly is bred for turf (Kitten’s Joy) and has shown enough in the a.m. to indicate at least some ability for J. Terranova, a trainer that has solid stats with the first-time starter angle.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade: C+
Use: 6-Quantitativebreezin; 9-Traffic Lane; 10-Chloe Rose

Forecast: A full field of restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming fillies and mares competes at six furlongs in a race that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Very slight top billing goes to Chloe Rose, drawn comfortably outside in her second start since being claimed for $30,000 but dropping in such a manner that brings her current condition into question. If she shows up with her best stuff, the daughter of Twirling Candy will have enough speed to enjoy a good pace stalking trip and then go on with it when asked, but when it comes to the modest claiming ranks, current condition is what’s most important. Two easy recent breezes since raced can be taken as a good sign, or at least we hope so. Traffic Lane, freshened since mid-May and moving from the T. Pletcher barn to that of R. Rodriguez, has sprinted only once in seven career starts but today adds blinkers for the first time while nosediving in class and picking up I. Ortiz, Jr., so the signals are mixed. Still, we have to use her. Quantitativebreezin broke her maiden for $40,000 in the mud two races back and earned an okay number, one that makes her a threat if she can repeat that effort over a fast strip. The B. Cox barn runs them where they belong, and against this group the daughter of Central Banker should be pressing the pace throughout.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B-
Use: 5-Lovely Luck; 6-Mia Martina

Forecast: Selections are made for turf only. Lovely Luck exits a series of graded stakes races and makes her first start since January, so she’ll certainly enjoy this drop to the second level allowance ranks while not having any issue with the mini-marathon trip. As to her fitness, it’s hard to gauge as she has no history of running well fresh, her trainer has soft numbers with layoff runners, and the work tab doesn’t really inspire. At least she’s being ridden by J. Ortiz, who has been aboard in both of her wins. Mia Martina has the benefit of recent racing and returns from Delaware Park while being reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr. She’s never run this far, but the daughter of Not This Time has a steady, grinding style that should allow her to see out the trip. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight edge on top to Lovely Luck.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B
Single: 3-Ice Princess

Forecast: At first glance this race looks a bit treacherous due to a projected pace scenario that may compromise several of the contenders, who prefer to do their best work on the lead. They all can’t have it, and the one that earns it may have to go too fast too early. So, let’s zero in on a closer in this first-level allowance nine furlong main track event for fillies and mares. Ice Princess certainly is capable of producing a good late kick and should have every chance if given the patient ride she requires from I. Ortiz, Jr. Second when beaten a neck in the Fleet Indian S. over this track and distance last year, the daughter of Palace Malice has numbers that fit and an easy breeze over the local dirt surface that should have her ready for a major effort. First or second in seven of 11 starts, the D. Gargan-trained filly is worth a bit of gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: C+
Use: 4-Social Whirl; 7-Dorothy’s the Boss; 12-Stella Mars

Forecast: Selections are made for turf only. The nightcap is a messy maiden claiming turf sprint for New York-bred $40,000 fillies and mares that drew a full field. Anything goes. Stella Mars may have found her niche as a turf sprinter, having finished a good second with a career top numbers in a similar affair at Belmont Park last month (her first off a long layoff). If the daughter of Point of Entry can turn in two alike, she’ll probably beat this field. Dorothy’s the Boss is slower on speed figures than our top pick but shows up in a seller for the first time while also making her debut on grass, so improvement certainly is possible. She appears to be the most dangerous of the closing types. Social Whirl, a close fourth in the same race that Stella Mars just finished second in, has dangerous early speed and could stick better at this slightly shorter trip. The daughter of Freud hasn’t been too generous under pressure but if she can shake loose early she may keep going.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 06:15 AM

Fun in the Sun Play is Underway

July 21, 2021 | By Johnny D

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Topping Saturday’s play is longtime Xpressbet tournament player Ellis Starr with an impressive $392 in earnings. In addition to a seat at the Final Table, Starr adds $2,898 in first-place prize money to his account. Two additional familiar Xpressbet tourney participants Gordon Maruya and Craig Kaufman check in second and third with $317 and $233 mutuel totals, respectively. They bag an additional $1,207.50 and $724.50 in prize money to round out weekly top three finishers. At a mere $1.50 and $2 behind Kaufman, Paul Lutz and Steven Jones complete top five finishers and gain Final Table seats with $231.50 and $231 in earnings.

Fun in the Sun is a weekly Saturday online handicapping competition open to Xpressbet account holders. A $25 weekly registration fee is required to play, and all fees are returned to players in the form of prizes. Each week, the top five players based on earnings from live $10 Win wagers in the last 5 races at Saratoga and the first 5 races from Del Mar earn seats at the $10,000-added Final Table on Saturday, Sept. 4. Weekly cash prizes are available to the top 3 finishers.

Saturday’s opening week competition races included four events where winners returned less than $5 for $2. Three of those bunt singles came at Saratoga: Beau Liam $4 in the 8th, Wit $4.20 in the 9th and Ducale $3.80 in the 11th. One finished first at Del Mar: Smash Ticket $4 in the 5th. An additional two competition race winners paid less than double digits: Althiqa $9.90 in the Spa’s 10th and Win Happy $7 in Del Mar’s 2nd. Gear Jockey began the Fun in the Sun afternoon with a $10.60 payoff in the Spa’s 7th and By Moonlight $35.60 rocked Del Mar’s 1st at $35.60. Bye Bye Bertie at $17.20 provided additional spice in the 4th Where the Turf Meets the Surf.

Your next chance to join players at the $10,000-added Fun in the Sun Final Table is Saturday when competition resumes with races from Saratoga and Del Mar. It’s a great way to add spice to your weekend horseplay and to take advantage of some great value. Since there’s no tournament takeout and Xpressbet even adds a whopping $10,000 to the Final Table pot, you can’t go wrong by playing Fun in the Sun. Plus, since competition wagers are ‘live,’ you could come out ahead even if you aren’t quite hot enough win a cash prize!

See you Saturday!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 06:16 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Arlington - Race #3

#6 Driver Dan	Draws best of those with any speed, and he has done his top work when able to find the front without too much trouble. If the chalk lays off him just a touch early, maybe he can dig in again. Trust level is low that he will hold form, but the race shape suits -- demand something like the 7/2 ML price.
#2 Tale of the Nile	He gets back around two turns for a high-powered team, and his all-weather form has always been pretty solid. He's the one to beat at a likely short price.
#4 Fort Ridge	His recent route form here isn't much to look at, but he might be able to settle and come with one run to pass some of the one-paced ones late.
Race Summary	Driver Dan and Tale of the Nile figure to get a good run up near the top, but the former should offer a bit better price and might be able to control things from the break.

Arlington - Race #5

#3 King Tito	He might be quick enough to find the front with these, and he is easy to like with improving form through every start. Hoping he has a go for it from the break.
#6 Burl	He's probably the one to beat off the romping win last time out, but I think he's going to be overbet off that effort when he came home slowly while coming away from a modest group.
#1 Beealea	He was no match for this type off the bench a couple starts back, but he turned in an improved effort last out when dipping in with claimers. That running line fits here, but class is the question.
Race Summary	King Tito has some pace and the kind of improving form that might ease the step up to try winners for the first time. One more move forward and he's right there.

Arlington - Race #8

#4 No Que No	He brings a best-of-62 Keeneland work with him to this one, and he has the pedigree to handle a move around two turns with a good, forward trip looming.
#7 Joe Frazier	He already cleared this condition on the main track at Keeneland in April, and he's in for the $75,000 tag this time around while trying the turf for the first time. The pedigree is fine, but not exciting, and he's almost sure to be an underlay.
#3 Happy American	The leading rider signs on as this guy makes his synthetic debut, and he's definitely capable of something better than he showed last out when facing winners for the first time.
Race Summary	Fun race -- even #5 Smokey Harbor and #9 Oh Say have a claim on the top spot. No Que No gets the slight edge on the move around two turns with a pedigree that suggests a mile might be right up his alley.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 06:17 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#2 SMILEANDSAYCHEESE	Responded well to aggressive tactics, price attached.
#8 LORD OF MISRULE	Classy 10yo romped at Pocono through :54.3 back half.
#3 HEREHECOMESAROCKIN	Disappeared in latest off claim, won prior pair at this level.
Race Summary	Smileandsaycheese changed tactics, led until the stretch and held gamely for third behind the winning favorite. He draws an inner post and could notch his first win of the year with a move forward off that effort. Play a 2-8 exacta box.

Hoosier Park - Race #2

#4 RAMBLIN ART	Takes magnified drop, changes drivers again, can make good use of his speed.
#5 BACKUP A	Took money after 1-for-27 two-year run, rallied to finish second.
#1 LILYS REAL BOY	Shipper figures close-up from rail at tempting price with Tetrick in bike.
Race Summary	Ramblin Art takes class drop, starts fresh and looms a forward factor throughout if he duplicates his race two starts ago. Let's make him today's Best Bet and play 4-1 and 4-5 exactas.

Yonkers - Race #10

#2 STONEBRIDGE SOUL	Has found comfort zone, moves outside in, has plenty of back-class to summon.
#5 BOLT OF BEAUTY	Came up a neck short of four wins in a row, gets ton of pace to rally into.
#6 NORTH STAR IDEAL	No fire in the slop, projects right trip, use underneath in gimmicks.
Race Summary	Stonebridge Soul, first or second in 22 of 53 starts, steps up in class after winning from posts 7 and 10 in June. She draws favorably, has tactical speed and should have dead aim on $750,000 career earnings mark. Play a 2/5,6/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 06:18 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #1

#1 Peyton's College	Debuted with a second at Churchill, but was soundly outrun at Ellis in her latest; ought to enjoy the change of venue.
#3 Alaska Joy	Tired in his first local start and could improve with additional ground; can be a pace factor today.
#6 Miss Dial	Was runner-up when she switched for Keeneland to Indiana Grand and has a chance to improve going longer.
Race Summary	Peyton's College can wake up with the change in tracks and should find the competition to her liking.

Indiana Grand - Race #4

#1 More Cowbell	Moved to the lead then faltered to third last out at Belterra, but it looks like the switch to turf added some class to her; likely to be very close throughout.
#2 Stylish Kitten	Was along for third vs. much better last time out and takes a significant drop in class.
#6 Arian Rae	Was second in a race that came off the turf last time and drops to the bottom.
Race Summary	More Cowbell has enough speed to be a factor from the start and can dig in at this distance.

Indiana Grand - Race #6

#2 Benny	Was an easy winner the last time he was on this track and returns after being outrun in a strong race at Ellis.
#8 Mr Manning	Was a clear winner two races back and has done well over the track; classier than most in this one.
#3 Floroplus	Has won four straight, including his latest over this strip; has won twice on the turf, although that grass success has not been recent.
Race Summary	Benny beat strong company two back and makes his first start on the turf, and he could be able to handle the switch.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 09:09 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 6	Exacta / Quiniela / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7
Claiming $4,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $8,000 SINCE JULY 22, 2020. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 7, 2021 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 22, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 22, 2021 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * BAGELS AND LOX: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. H orse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. AMOR ELVIRA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MEDDYBEMPS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SUE'S MONSTER BABY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
3	BAGELS AND LOX	9/2	5/1
1	AMOR ELVIRA	10/1	6/1
5	MEDDYBEMPS	2/1	7/1
4	SUE'S MONSTER BABY	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	AMOR ELVIRA	1	10/1	Front-runner	72	63	72.6	59.6	55.1
7	COUNT WIN	7	15/1	Front-runner	53	32	68.8	39.6	26.6
3	BAGELS AND LOX	3	9/2	Front-runner	75	69	64.8	61.8	55.3
2	JUPI'S JUST JUDY	2	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	56	58	64.9	53.6	46.1
5	MEDDYBEMPS	5	2/1	Stalker	70	71	35.2	52.0	48.5
4	SUE'S MONSTER BABY	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	68	62.0	52.6	44.6
6	WICKED WITCH	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	70	41.8	20.7	8.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 09:14 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 1	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 1-2)($1 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 63 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 3:00P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * EYESA RAPID TRAIN B: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FIVE BAR SWEET LOOK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MEZQUITE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fas t. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. GPF LAWMAN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8	EYESA RAPID TRAIN B	7/2	5/1
6	FIVE BAR SWEET LOOK	3/1	5/1
7	MEZQUITE	2/1	5/1
3	GPF LAWMAN	5/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MI SUGAR SHACK	1	20/1	Slow	0	0	7.0	0.0	0.0
2	RF ONE FAMOUS BLUE	2	12/1	Slow	0	0	7.3	0.0	0.0
3	GPF LAWMAN	3	5/1	Average	72	48	5.9	0.0	0.0
4	MP SPECIAL COUNTRY	4	20/1	Average	0	0	6.0	0.0	0.0
5	LOUIE B QUICK	5	8/1	Average	59	43	5.0	0.0	0.0
6	FIVE BAR SWEET LOOK	6	3/1	Average	76	54	6.0	0.0	0.0
7	MEZQUITE	7	2/1	Fast	68	54	2.6	0.0	0.0
8	EYESA RAPID TRAIN B	8	7/2	Slow	70	57	6.3	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 09:15 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Arlington - Race #5 - Post: 4:23pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#3 KING TITO (ML=6/1)
#6 BURL (ML=2/1)
#1 BEEALEA (ML=5/2)

KING TITO - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Roman gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. I like the way this gelding's finish positions have gotten better with each start recently. A sign of a thoroughbred coming into top form. Wired the field on Jul 9th at Arlington. Quite possible he can do it again today. Ranked at the top of the list in earnings per start. Another confirmation that this equine has class. BURL - Bowen is up for another race today after sitting atop this horse for the first attempt on Jun 19th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Nice winning percent this jock and conditioner tandem have been putting together. The recent bullet 58.4 work should put this gelding on track for today's contest. BEEALEA - The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Boyce. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. This gelding is in first-rate condition right now. Ended up first last out and comes back rapidly. This gelding's last speed fig notched on July 8th is number one in last race Equibase speed figures. This thoroughbred has increased his Equibase speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BEE HAPPY ATTACK (ML=4/1), #5 GIRLOLAMO'GLORY (ML=8/1),

BEE HAPPY ATTACK - Just don't think he is priced right at the probable odds. GIRLOLAMO'GLORY - This less than sharp equine hasn't been close to the winner at the finish line recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #3 KING TITO on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 09:16 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $37200 Class Rating: 76

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 22 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 MOBIL LADY 7/2
# 1 TIVIS 6/1
# 6 SAMMY'S SISTER 3/1

MOBIL LADY looks to be the bet in here. Could best this field here, showing respectable figs of late. Ought to be considered based on the very strong Equibase Speed Figure earned in the last affair. Seems to have a very good class edge based on the recent company kept. TIVIS - Her earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone makes you take a look at her. She has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the strongest in this group. SAMMY'S SISTER - Ought to compete solidly in the early pace contest which bodes well with this group. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 62 speed figure posted in her last outing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 09:17 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

07/22/21, SAR, Race 7, 4.29 ET
07/22/21,SAR,7,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 CLAIMING. Purse $35,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race In 2021 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	9	Traffic Lane(b+)	3/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Rodriguez Rudy R.	JL	314	35.35	1.44/$1
098.6443	8	My Alluring Lady(b+)	9/2	Gaffalione T	Gargan Danny	EW	220	35.45	1.65/$1
098.4566	6	Quantitativbreezin	7/2	Franco M	Cox Brad H.	T	314	35.35	1.44/$1
095.3782	10	Chloe Rose	6/1	Castellano J	Brown Bruce R.		220	35.45	1.65/$1
094.0735	5	Cause to Dream(b+)	6/1	Santana. Jr. R	Dharamjit Darmindra	SF	220	35.45	1.65/$1
093.6474	2	Irresistible Girl	12/1	Saez L	Schosberg Richard E.		314	35.35	1.44/$1
093.5263	1	Bustinmygroove	15/1	Hernandez Moreno O	Barrera. III Oscar S.		220	35.45	1.65/$1
092.0825	4	Big Tony's Girl	20/1	Vargas. Jr. J A	Ryerson James T.		220	35.45	1.65/$1
090.5561	3	Nicky Scissors	20/1	Cancel E	Sciacca Gary		220	35.45	1.65/$1
090.5167	7	Red Pepper Grill	8/1	Lezcano J	Lawrence. II James L.	C	220	35.45	1.65/$1
088.2375	1A	Gagliano	15/1	Rodriguez Castro L A	Barrera. III Oscar S.		220	35.45	1.65/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 38.30, ROI 1.08/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.3557
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Categories] Last Race Was Not OddsOn Favorite(not entry)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 09:18 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Delaware Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:45pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#2 VEGAS LIFE (ML=4/1)
#6 SCOTTY SILVER (ML=5/2)

VEGAS LIFE - This thoroughbred coming off a good try in the last 30 days is a solid contender in my opinion. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figs (67-80-84) make this one a strong contender. SCOTTY SILVER - Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a good race on June 24th. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 THURMAN MERMAN (ML=9/5), #1 FROST'S SONG (ML=6/1),

THURMAN MERMAN - This horse just hasn't looked ready recently. When checking today's class rating, he will have to earn a better speed fig than last time around the track to compete in this dirt sprint. FROST'S SONG - Speed ratings tell a story of decreasing form. No favorable outcomes for this questionable contender in a sprint event over the last two months tells me that this gelding is in a difficult situation

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - VEGAS LIFE - Analysis shows this gelding's last speed number of 84 is as good as any. Don't overlook this gelding in your gambling.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 VEGAS LIFE to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 09:18 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 65

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $15,000 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 CRESCENT CITY CAT 8/1
# 3 TIGARD BABES 7/2
# 6 MIZSPELT 5/2

CRESCENT CITY CAT looks strong to best this field especially at 8/1. He looks competitive in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Decent venture today with second time Lasix. TIGARD BABES - Could provide positive returns based on very good recent speed figs with an average of 60. Could beat this group of animals given the 53 speed figure earned in his last outing. MIZSPELT - The Equibase Speed Figure of 54 from his latest race looks strong in here. Has to be given a shot versus this group of horses in this race displaying respectable figures lately and an average speed rating of 60 under similar conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-22-2021, 04:52 PM

Free Winners for Thursday, July 22nd 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
INDIANA GRAND
RACE #6
TIME: 6:00 PM EST
PICK: BET #4 Rollin With Olin 4/1 odds to win @ Bovada

Thursday 7/22/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 7/22/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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