Saturday 9/23/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belterra Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:05pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,400 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#10 PRANCIPANTS (ML=9/2)
#8 RENAISSANCE (IRE) (ML=7/2)
#4 ADDISON (ML=5/1)


PRANCIPANTS - If you review the PP's for this thoroughbred, you'll see she has recorded the top Equibase speed fig at the distance and surface. A repeat race in this race and this horse has a superb chance to win. Sneaky speed on this one. She'll probably be stalking ponies on the back side, then demolish them down the stretch. This mare is in nice form. Ended up second on September 3rd.RENAISSANCE (IRE) - This thoroughbred is for real on the turf. TrackMaster turf figure in last race at Belterra Park was tops in this bunch. Utilizing this rider/conditioner combination is a smart choice. Past performance lines show this thoroughbred with 3 improving speed figs. Correa should be on a live one in this field. ADDISON - I am keen on that most recent effort on September 6th at Belterra Park where she ended up third. I think this mare is coming into top form. Average class rating is tops in this field. I think that is a big advantage for a race on the grass.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CARLIE Q BLUE (ML=2/1), #9 AZAMANA EMPIRE (ML=6/1), #1A WHISKEY SIS (ML=8/1),

CARLIE Q BLUE - This racer's record tells you not to bet on her as the favorite. Hasn't been on the Belterra Park oval in the last few weeks. Cause for some concern. AZAMANA EMPIRE - I'm forecasting a lackluster effort out of her this time around.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #10 PRANCIPANTS on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	10 with [4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,8,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - SO - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 100

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER ON THE TURF OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000-$45,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 MIGHTY MEISTER 15/1
# 5 SAMBURU (GB) 2/1
# 4 SUE LOVES BARBADOS 6/1

MIGHTY MEISTER looks strong to best this field and could score at a price in here. Sound average Equibase Speed Figs in turf sprint races make this pony a solid choice. Should be carefully examined based on the solid speed rating posted in the last contest. Vaunts solid Equibase speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. SAMBURU (GB) - Has solid Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look. He has been running solidly lately while recording strong Equibase speed figs.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $14735 Class Rating: 58

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR REGISTERED STATE BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 127 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000, IF FOR $12,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 MR CHACHEL 8/1
# 6 KT SHELIA CARTEL 7/2
# 5 TS EAT DUST 3/1

My selection in this race is MR CHACHEL and is a decent value-based wager given the 8/1 line. Likely to see a sound attempt with the class drop. This racer must be wagered on at the expected big odds. Is hard not to consider given the company run in recently. KT SHELIA CARTEL - Put up a respectable speed fig last time out. TS EAT DUST - I can't pass on this filly given one of the most competitive rider and trainer combos on the grounds.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs - Race 5	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) Pick 5 (Races 5-9) / Super Hi-5
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $120,000 • Post: 7:57P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $50,000 IN LAST 3 STARTS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SAHALAT is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SAHALAT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. NOT SO HOLY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equi base Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	SAHALAT	8/5	9/5
7	NOT SO HOLY	5/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	FURIOUS ANGER	3	6/1	Front-runner	0	0	71.1	71.1	62.6
5	SAHALAT	5	8/5	Stalker	89	87	99.5	82.5	80.5
7	NOT SO HOLY	7	5/1	Stalker	0	0	89.1	73.0	69.0
4	SHORTSTOP	4	8/1	Trailer	0	0	61.6	73.0	67.5
1	PERFECT UPSTART	1	20/1	Trailer	0	0	9.5	61.6	51.6
9	BEARINGS	9	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	26.5	54.0	43.5

Unknown Running Style: YOU AIN'T POPPN (8/1) [Jockey: Santana Jr Ricardo - Trainer: Walsh Brendan P], BOPTROT (12/1) [Jockey: Garcia Martin - Trainer: Romans Dale L], BEN FRANKLIN (8/1) [Jockey: Leparoux Julien R - Trainer: McPeek Kenneth G].

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 3	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 $.50 Bet 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $12,500 • 1 1/16 Miles • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $19,000 • Post: 1:52P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * TESHIMA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase S peed Figure at the distance/surface. FAR ABOVE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BULLET VALENTINA: Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ALWAYS CONNECTED: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	TESHIMA	8/5	9/2
2	FAR ABOVE	4/1	5/1
7	BULLET VALENTINA	20/1	6/1
4	ALWAYS CONNECTED	20/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	ALWAYS CONNECTED	4	20/1	Front-runner	65	62	78.5	48.4	40.4
3	TESHIMA	3	8/5	Front-runner	72	64	64.4	59.1	54.1
10	MYSTICAL LADY	10	30/1	Front-runner	0	0	53.3	42.8	25.8
2	FAR ABOVE	2	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	71	63	61.4	59.6	54.1
7	BULLET VALENTINA	7	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	59	66.0	50.8	42.3
6	SONG AND TAP	6	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	17.1	47.4	35.9
9	THANK THE ACADEMY	9	6/1	Trailer	64	42	55.9	41.7	33.7
1	ESKIMO STREET	1	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	65	53	55.2	41.9	31.9
5	HUGE G	5	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	101.4	25.6	6.6
8	OVERRUN	8	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	79.8	31.7	17.7

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belmont at the Big A - Race #1 - Post: 1:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $47,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#2 DUKE OF GLOUCESTER (ML=4/1)
#5 LOUIE'S HEAT (ML=10/1)


DUKE OF GLOUCESTER - Have to give this gelding a good chance. Ran a sharp race last time around the track within the last thirty days. Like the way this gelding's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a comeback. LOUIE'S HEAT - First time starter here. An overlooked stat is the breeding, especially the dam. Dam's foals have won 67 percent of the time as first timers. The addition of Lasix might make this animal wake up and smell the coffee in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CITIZEN MACK (ML=2/1), #4 CALIBRACHOAMATTERS (ML=4/1), #1 BERLONE (ML=5/1),

CITIZEN MACK - Had to give me much more than that last time around the track. Never made much of an impact. I think this morning-line favorite needs this race under his belt to start getting back into shape. When examining today's class rating, he will have to notch a better speed rating than last time out to battle in this dirt sprint. CALIBRACHOAMATTERS - 4/1 is not offering enough value for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event lately. 4/1 is just not enough of a value to take on most any entrant that has run poorly in back to back races. BERLONE - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some success lately in short distance affairs in order to wager on him. This horse hasn't shown too much in the last couple affairs.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 DUKE OF GLOUCESTER to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Freehold Raceway

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 09/23 FREEHOLD
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 2- - PACE 09/23 FREEHOLD
1 Keep Us Happy 5/2 516.25 100 MUD 43.3 77.1 B/F 1:57.7 Marohn, Jim Jr 26
5 Believeinthespirit 12/1 474.43 80 51.7 77.7 1:58.3 Kowalski, Joe 12
2 Ideal Suspect 4/1 464.61 70 53.3 78.0 1:58.4 Miga, Dominik 7
3 Bad Colt 7/2 452.25 80 28.3 76.0 1:58.5 Dube, Daniel 12
7 Prom King 6/1 450.72 70 60.0 73.6 1:57.9 Ahle, Johnathan 17

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at Century Mile

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 09/23 CENTURY MILE
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 2- - PACE 09/23 CENTURY MILE
2 Outlawguns N Roses 2/1 635.19 100 100.0 65.0 B/F 1:53.7 Kelly, David A 21
8 Born A Spy 6/1 582.62 70 91.7 74.4 1:55.1 Giesbrecht, Philip 21
3 Im Outrageous Too 5/2 552.24 80 75.0 82.6 1:55.9 Campbell, J Brandon 26
1 Long Gone Lover 8/1 551.17 80 21.7 65.0 1:55.6 Sobey, Nathan K 21
7 Foothills Magic 4/1 549.53 70 >21 76.7 74.4 1:55.7 Gray, Jamie D 12

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
4	4	HYPNOTICDREAM	8/1	Sowers, Mcgwire - 8	497.32
2	2	STONEBRIDGE MACH	15/1	Fluet, Phil - 10	491.12
8	8	PRIMO UOMO	10/1	Devaux, Jim - 19	478.97
7	7	LETSGOTOBRAZIL A	3/1	Athearn, Matthew - 11	475.82
3	3	ADDISON HANOVER	8/5	Dobson, Billy - 12	475.03
1	1	OREGON TRAIL	12/1	Beckwith, Brett - 16	467.91
6	6	HERRICKROOSEVELT N	9/2	Cushing, Mitchell - 10	460.29
5	5	AMOUR CRUISER	20/1	Hennessey, Wally - 17	454.03

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Hoosier Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Post: 7:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$8000 - FILLIES & MARES-N/W $3,001 IN THE LAST 4 STARTS AE: FM - TM RATING OF 81.5 OR LOWER

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 MEL'S VICKI LOU 5/2
# 5 PJ DENA 4/1
# 4 STAY GOLD 3/1

The pick for this race is MEL'S VICKI LOU. She's competing in good form, recording very compelling TrackMaster Speed Ratings. An excellent choice. Enters this contest with very good TrackMaster class ratings as compared to the pack - worth a look. A nice play in here as she has one of the highest winning figures in the group as well as terrific credentials all around. PJ DENA - Many selectors know speed is is such an important factor. This solid standardbred has credentials with a 84 avg figure. Many expert selectors will recognize the fantastic speed fig in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this field of horses. STAY GOLD - These days Tetrick has been tough as nails, which may give the edge to this mare in this event. With a 85 avg class rating, this solid standardbred has one of the most favorable class edges in the race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 13 - Post: 4:36 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 92 - Purse:$12500 - NW $9,500 IN LAST 4 STARTS STARTER IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN NW15000L4/5 OR A WINNER THIS CLASS OR HIGHER IN LAST START INELIGIBLE AE: NW 6 EXT. PM RACES OR $70,000 LIFETIME PA PREFERRED POCONO DOWNS B BOYD 6 OVER 3 M KAKALEY 7 OVER 8

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 WORKIN ONA MYSTERY 5/2
# 4 RIP WHEELER 6/1
# 3 CAPTAIN FANCY 9/2

WORKIN ONA MYSTERY is the most solid wager in this competition. Take a look at this horse's average speed ranking of 95 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a competitive wager. He has really good class ratings, averaging 94. Should be considered for a bet in this contest. Win percent for this driver-trainer is a sparkling 19 percent - excellent likelihood. RIP WHEELER - Looks like a strong selection in this group of horses and his successful winning percentage says he has the raw talent to score today. When starting from the 4 post, a well above average win percentage has resulted. CAPTAIN FANCY - This gelding has the ability to take successful advantage of a favorable pace scenario in this race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Yonkers Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
5	5	REIGN OF HONOR	7/2	Marohn, Jim Jr - 10	523.14
4	4	MEMO	3/1	Stratton, Jordan - 13	518.20
1	1	LOS BALLYKEELAMIGO	6/1	Buter, Tyler - 11	486.05
3	3	FASHION FOREVER	5/1	Smith, Steve - 6	484.67
6	6	STICK WITH ME KID	7/2	Bartlett, Jason - 23	469.18
2	2	ENCHANTED MISSION	12/1	Siegelman, Austin - 9	460.77
8	8	HP RUNNING MASS	20/1	Dube, Daniel - 10	431.11
7	7	DIRTY MONEY	15/1	Holland, Brent - 12	425.58

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Century Downs

PURCHASE

Century Downs - Race 4	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 5 (Races 4-8)
Maiden Special • 3 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 23 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 2:15P
FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SIZZLIN ROSE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SIZZLIN ROSE: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	SIZZLIN ROSE	9/2	3/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SIZZLIN ROSE	1	9/2	Front-runner	61	55	70.8	29.9	27.9
5	BURNING UP	5	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	63.5	16.1	12.1

Unknown Running Style: SWEETSINGINGANGEL (3/1) [Jockey: Nelson Dane - Trainer: Kettleson Alivia], THISCATSGOTSPEED (15/1) [Jockey: Garcia Daniel A - Trainer: Hedge Rick], TAYLOR FIELD (6/1) [Jockey: Whitehall Antonio - Trainer: Petrowski Joan], B B'S

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for FanDuel Horse RacingPURCHASE

FanDuel Horse Racing - Race 8	Exacta / .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .10 Cent Superfecta
Optional Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 10:46
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR IBF OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * AWESOME SUNDAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SALLY'S SUPRISE: Hors e has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MAYSTART: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MYSWEETANNALYZE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. FOGGY KITTEN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
7	AWESOME SUNDAY	3/1	7/1
6	SALLY'S SUPRISE	6/1	7/1
4	MAYSTART	4/1	7/1
2	MYSWEETANNALYZE	7/2	7/1
3	FOGGY KITTEN	8/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	FOGGY KITTEN	3	8/1	Front-runner	77	67	83.6	64.2	52.7
7	AWESOME SUNDAY	7	3/1	Front-runner	74	75	80.8	69.2	61.2
8	FREE LOVE	8	10/1	Front-runner	76	74	70.0	52.2	42.7
2	MYSWEETANNALYZE	2	7/2	Stalker	71	74	66.3	70.6	66.1
6	SALLY'S SUPRISE	6	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	70	67.8	68.6	62.6
4	MAYSTART	4	4/1	Trailer	78	80	49.2	70.0	64.5
5	GHAALEB'S RANGER	5	9/2	Trailer	70	65	33.0	60.6	50.1
1	DELTA LADY	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	66	62.8	46.4	31.4