Saturday 10/7/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:36 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special

PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 1	Leg A of the Keeneland x Santa Anita Breeders' Cup Challenge Pick 6
Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 101 • Purse: $350,000 • Post: 4:12P
THOROUGHBRED CLUB OF AMERICA S. KEE - R7 - GRADE 2 FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * WICKED HALO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. YUUGIRI: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. STATIC FIRE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/ surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LAST LEAF: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rati ng at the distance/surface.
1	WICKED HALO	5/2	4/1
6	YUUGIRI	2/1	6/1
4	STATIC FIRE	7/2	8/1
3	LAST LEAF	9/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	STATIC FIRE	4	7/2	Front-runner	96	93	103.8	91.3	84.3
6	YUUGIRI	6	2/1	Front-runner	103	99	92.0	92.0	85.5
5	HAPPY SOUL	5	8/1	Front-runner	99	90	88.9	80.5	69.5
2	FIRE ON TIME	2	8/1	Front-runner	104	96	80.8	85.8	77.8
1	WICKED HALO	1	5/2	Trailer	106	92	93.6	99.4	96.9
3	LAST LEAF	3	9/2	Trailer	104	87	74.2	91.0	84.0
7	BE LIKE WATER	7	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	92	91	45.2	80.2	69.2

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:36 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for WoodbinePURCHASE

Woodbine - Race 1	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)/ $1 Swinger
Optional Claiming $32,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $111,000 • Post: 1:15P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $9,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR RESTRICTED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $32,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000, IF FOR $30,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (ANY MAIDEN RACES, AND ONLY CLAIMING RACES AND ONLY STARTER RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. MILAGRE DO SOL is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MILAGRE DO SOL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SILVER MAGNATIZED: Hor se ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. INDY CHAMPAGNE: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 y ards if a Quarter Horse race).
1	MILAGRE DO SOL	4/1	4/1
5	SILVER MAGNATIZED	8/1	5/1
4	INDY CHAMPAGNE	8/5	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	SILVER MAGNATIZED	5	8/1	Stalker	90	86	63.2	76.4	72.4
1	MILAGRE DO SOL	1	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	84	91.6	82.5	75.5
4	INDY CHAMPAGNE	4	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	90	91	87.2	62.6	56.6
6	FISH MOONEY	6	5/1	Trailer	87	78	70.8	82.2	73.7
2	AMAZIN QUEEN	2	12/1	Trailer	88	84	53.2	78.6	71.6
3	ETHERIC	3	5/2	Trailer	82	80	29.8	76.9	69.4

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:37 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 86

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 7 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 7 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 12 FAREWELL TIME 8/1
# 7 LAUGHINGSAINTSSONG 9/2
# 9 LION HEART LEGEND 8/1

FAREWELL TIME is my choice and is a solid value bet given the line at 8/1. LAUGHINGSAINTSSONG - I would like this gelding on the jock and trainer numbers alone. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Gibson have shown very strong results as of late.

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:37 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:32pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,800 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#1 PRIMETIME JET (ML=4/1)

PRIMETIME JET - Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. Another way to judge class is EPS (earnings per start). This racer has the uppermost in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the end. I like to wager on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong race within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SO COURAGEOUS (ML=7/5), #2 SPEIGHTS YOUR MIND (ML=5/2), #6 TRAPPE THE GOLD (ML=6/1),

SO COURAGEOUS - Didn't show much run last out. Probably won't make an impact in today's race. Not likely for this entrant to make an impact with no recent success in a short distance clash. TRAPPE THE GOLD - Any speed fig attained on an off track has to be taken with a grain of salt.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - PRIMETIME JET - The data here is quite simple. This racer has a lot of early speed, so I'd calculate that he sets the early fractions, with a chance to win in wire to wire fashion.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 PRIMETIME JET to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:37 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race #4 - Post: 1:40pm - Stakes - 12.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $500,000 Class Rating: 105 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S. (Grade 1)

Rating:

#7 STONE AGE (IRE) (ML=5/1)
#6 SOLDIER RISING (GB) (ML=5/1)

STONE AGE (IRE) - I seem to always make money betting Brown horses on the turf. That barn has a strong win percent for this distance/surface. In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the turf. This one has the highest average class rating in the bunch. I do like foreign imports that have showed signs of class at a major foreign venue. SOLDIER RISING (GB) - This gelding notched a good fig of 105 in his last race. That rating should be high enough to win this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 REBEL'S ROMANCE (IRE) (ML=9/5), #2 WAR LIKE GODDESS (ML=2/1), #5 PIONEERING SPIRIT (ML=8/1),

REBEL'S ROMANCE (IRE) - This animal hasn't shown much in the last pair of races. WAR LIKE GODDESS - Didn't meet expectations as the favorite twice in a row. PIONEERING SPIRIT - Garnered a mediocre speed figure last time out in the Bernard Baruch on September 4th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - SOLDIER RISING (GB) - With the best TrackMaster turf figure last race. This gelding is the thoroughbred to beat today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 STONE AGE (IRE) to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 105

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 W W HOTSHOT 5/2
# 1 COMISKEY PARK 2/1
# 3 DEVIL'S TOWER 3/1

W W HOTSHOT is my choice. Has solid Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in this race. Wagerers ought to take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of horses in this race. With Arrieta on top him, this gelding should be able to break out sharply in this race. COMISKEY PARK - Recorded a respectable speed rating last time out. This gelding with Bendezu in the irons makes him a solid contender. DEVIL'S TOWER - Has been moving in the most competitive company of the group of animals lately. Ran a sharp last race.

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:38 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Freehold Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
4	4	ALBERT A' SCOOTIN	3/1	Ginsburg, Vincent - 15	472.35
3	3	SOUTHWIND ONYX	5/2	Dube, Daniel - 17	467.82
7	7	EAST BEACH	7/1	Marohn, Jim Jr - 28	466.27
1	1	KEEPAMERICAGREAT	7/2	Ahle, Johnathan - 13	449.59
8	8	VASARI N	6/1	Siegelman, Austin - 17	444.81
5	5	BESTONEYET HANOVER	8/1	Vallee, Shaun - 9	442.75
2	2	XMARXTHESPOT	20/1	Urbanski, Ned - 0	416.58
6	6	MY NAME IS HAIRY	15/1	Torro, Keith - 0	402.66

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:38 AM

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Century Mile

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
3	3	GREY HORIZON	4/5	Campbell, J Brandon - 24	383.68
2	2	TZILACATZIN	7/2	Brown, Christopher A - 3	322.30
5	5	ONE MORE ROCKY	6/1	Hennessy, Michael R - 15	310.96
6	6	NEVADA DRAGON	10/1	Sobey, Nathan K - 22	309.83
1	1	HF WINKNAT JENNA	4/1	Kelly, David A - 20	305.48
7	7	SHARK ATTACK	8/1	Giesbrecht, Philip - 12	302.72
4	4	CENALTA GUNFIRE	12/1	Hoerdt, Kelly O - 9	222.01

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:38 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Post: 3:42 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 94 - Purse:$16500 - NW $17,500

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 PAPPARDELLE 2/1
# 1 YANKS DUGOUT 5/2
# 5 P L NOTSONICE 7/2

All signs point to PAPPARDELLE for the contender. Has very good TrackMaster SRs and clearly has to be thought of for a wager in this contest. More than likely the class of the field of horses with an average rating of 95. A nice choice. Has to be given a look based on the very good speed rating achieved in the last race. YANKS DUGOUT - A very nice play in here as he has one of the highest winning rates in the group as well as tremendous credentials all around. Positively think these two have a special working relationship. Burke sending the horse out means a very good chance to get the victory. P L NOTSONICE - Is a very promising choice given the 90 speed rating from her most recent competition. Extremely profitable driver-trainer team, with a 58 ROI when working together.

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:38 AM

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Shenandoah Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 14 - Post: 4:54 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$8000 - VIRGINIA BREEDERS FUND STAKE 2ND LEG FOR 3 YEAR OLD FILLY TROTTERS. $2 WIN, PLACE & SHOW NO. 5 JOAN DEER RACES WITH HOPPLES

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 ROADGRACEMISSELLIE 5/2
# 1 STARLIGHT LOUNGE 8/5
# 5 JOAN DEER 7/1

All signs point to ROADGRACEMISSELLIE for the contender. Pace makes the race is a favorite saying of this brain trust. Pace numbers here point to a clear-cut play. If effort in the last gathering is any indication, this fine animal will have a very good shot here. High last race speed rating. A respectable win percentage has been recorded by horses coming from the 4 slot. STARLIGHT LOUNGE - This harness racer looks strong considering the high class stats. Don't toss out of any exotics. Recorded a 60 TrackMaster Speed Rating in last race. A duplicate affair here should get the score today. JOAN DEER - Very likely will improve with the equip change, back with hopples on today.

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:40 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming Stakes Trial - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 93

BILLY POWELL CLAIMING S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER. $250 TO ENTER. FIELD SIZE LIMITED TO TWELVE STARTERS. THE TOP FOUR FINISHERS OF LEG ONE OF THE CLAIMING SERIES HAVE PREFERENCE, BUT MUST PAY THE ENTRY FEE THE REMAINING OF THE FIELD WITH BE DETERMINED BY HIGHEST 2022-2023 EARNINGS AT THE TIME OF CLOSING NOMINATIONS. WEIGHTS FILLIES 119, 3 YR

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 THIRTY SECONDS OUT 9/2
# 11 SURPRSINGLYPERFECT 6/1
# 2 FIRE WHEN READY 10/1

THIRTY SECONDS OUT has a very good shot to take this race. Will likely be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the midpoint of the contest. One of the best win percentages between this jock and conditioner make this gelding dangerous. SURPRSINGLYPERFECT - Has been racing very well and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run lately. FIRE WHEN READY - Could best this group of horses based on the speed figure - 84 - of his last contest. This entrant has been constatntly running well recently.

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Stakes - 10.0f on the Turf. Purse: $360000 Class Rating: 111

XXXIX LONGINES GRAN PREMIO LATINOAMERICANO S. - GRADE 1 STAKE, OPEN, 4 YO'S & UP,.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 NATAN (ARG) 3/1
# 10 IRWIN (ARG) 2/1
# 5 DOUTOR SURENO (BRZ) 5/1

NATAN (ARG) has a formidable shot to take this race. Has to be used in the exotic offerings. This colt must be given consideration just off the earnings per start in turf route events alone. He has garnered very good figures under today's conditions and should fare well versus this group of horses in this race. IRWIN (ARG) - He has been racing admirably lately while recording sharp speed figs. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group lately. DOUTOR SURENO (BRZ) - Ran a very strong last race. Like the finishes in the last couple of races.

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #8 - Post: 5:08pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $49,600 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#2 TRILLING SONG (ML=9/2)
#9 CHERRY GARDENS (ML=4/1)
#11 DANZIGQUEEN (ML=12/1)

TRILLING SONG - This jockey and handler's animals have been producing a lucrative ROI. Speed ratings on the grass point to this animal as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance/surface. Day Phillips brings her back again. I suggest you stay with this strong mare. CHERRY GARDENS - Brooks brings her back again. I suggest you stay with this strong filly. Have to like this filly today. If you take a look at her PP lines you see a definite trend, getting closer with each and every race. With 'blinkers-on' this filly should be very competitive. Is ranked number one in earnings per race. A strong effort in this race can increase the lifetime bankroll. DANZIGQUEEN - It looks like Salles had to 'know' this filly on September 1st when riding her for the first time. Back aloft again today. Dropped down in class last race out, and keeps in that lower level in this event. A good sign this equine is comfortable and ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MASON'S MUSIC (ML=3/1), #12 PEACE IN PARADISE (ML=5/1), #3 HURRICANE GIZMO (ML=6/1),

MASON'S MUSIC - Difficult to bet on this runner in today's event. Make her show you something in a short distance race before you wager on her in a race of 7 1/2 furlongs. PEACE IN PARADISE - Speed figs of 56/42/23 are pointed the wrong direction. Tough to play any vulnerable equine in a sprint race if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last two months. HURRICANE GIZMO - Finished third in her most recent race with a substandard speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #2 TRILLING SONG on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,9,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,9,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,9,11] with [2,9,11] with [2,7,9,11,12] with [2,7,9,11,12] Total Cost: $36

**ConleyPicks** · 10-07-2023, 08:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 1	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 1-2) Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $12,700 • Post: 7:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 7, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY)(W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. TIZ MICHELLE'S WAY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TIZ MICHELLE'S WAY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power R ating. FLAT DISCOUNT: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. URKILLINGMEBETH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	TIZ MICHELLE'S WAY	12/1	3/1
1	FLAT DISCOUNT	5/2	6/1
5	URKILLINGMEBETH	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	TIZ MICHELLE'S WAY	2	12/1	Front-runner	72	62	68.4	52.6	47.6
1	FLAT DISCOUNT	1	5/2	Stalker	71	62	82.2	59.8	56.3
7	STYLISH PAINT	7	7/2	Stalker	57	60	65.8	52.4	42.4
6	MARKETABILITY	6	4/1	Trailer	55	55	26.4	57.6	47.6
5	URKILLINGMEBETH	5	3/1	Trailer	65	64	8.5	63.6	58.1
3	SO RED THE ROSE	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	50	56	48.8	35.0	21.0
4	CASTLE OF CAYLEE	4	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	76	71	21.0	57.4	49.4

Saturday 10/7/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 10/7/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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