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Caton Bredar Keeneland
Saturday, day 2 of the Keeneland Fall Meet
1st Race
Not an abundance of early speed in this conditioned claiming race, so 1-Master of Arms should be in the garden spot with his natural speed and inside post. Look for him to gain position early under Prat and control things from there. 6-Ala Carte drops in to the claiming ranks for the first time and, with class relief should improve. 5-Debate needs some help up front as he does his best running late, but he's another getting class relief whose best definitely marks him a top contender.
2nd Race
Giving the edge to experience in this wide open maiden juvenile event, with 1-Linzer coming off a pair of solid runner-up finishes. Blinkers come off for his third try--a key angle for trainer Stidham who has a win rate of 46% removing blinkers. 6-Gallant Mischief sports a fast, impressive work tab for his debut. Son of Into Mischief is bred to be any kind and the trainer--jockey combo of Gaffalione and Casse has been solid, especially at Keeneland over the past couple years. 7-Honky Tonk Highway was second in his lone start at Ellis and is likely to build on the effort.
3rd Race
In yet another ultra deep maiden race, most of the runners have raced previously. Of that group, 4-Take Time to Dream seems to be getting better with each start and her style suggests the longer the better. 1-Crushed Ice makes a lot of sense off a third place finish at Monmouth Park after debuting in the mud at Saratoga. Works have been swift as well. Right next door, 2-Devil Blue Dress makes her first start with some very sharp morning works and a strong rider in Luis Saez.
4th Race
5-Saffron Moon may be a short price, but she appears worth it. The Chad Brown filly is reunited with Flavian Pra, who rode her to a narrow defeat at Saratoga in August, her first start since two straight turf wins. 6-Quality Star is a horse for course with two wins from three Keeneland tries. 11-Watch This Birdie should be long odds as she moves up in class off a winning effort. Still, she's interesting here as she seems to have found new life on the grass.
5th Race
With speed to the inside courtesy of 1-Normandy Hero and 2-Baxley, 3-Alder should get the ideal set up in this talented field of juvenile sprinters, The son of Hard Spun won easily in his only try on a fast track, and trainer Cox wins 30% of the time with horses coming off wins. Bailey is talented and, if left alone on the lead could be very tough to catch although it's more likely he'll face at least a little pressure early. 7-Stormquist is one of the few offered for the $100k optional claiming price, but claimed off a winning effort for $50k by a shrewd claiming trainer, the colt seems well spotted and worth the risk. 9-Haul is hard to get a line on as he exits slower races but had trouble in graded stakes and may deserve the benefit of the doubt although at short odds, he's hard to take on top.
6th Race
The grade 2 Woodford, first of the graded stakes on tap, features some gritty turf sprinters, several of whom have an affinity for the course. The unknown quantity is British invader 2-Live In The Dream, who travels to the US off a solid win in grade I company at York. A bit of a surprise that day at 28-1, the gelding knows how to win with a 6 for 19 record lifetime, 3 for 6 this year. European horses generally seem better, overall, than our domestic runners, so the Irish bred gets the nod here over the very honest, hard trying 1-Bad Beat Brian and horse for course Kaufymaker who is seeing her third straight win while moving back up into graded stakes company.
7th Race
Female sprinters take center stage in the grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America with Yuugiri getting a perfect post in the middle of the field. While the filly may well be the speed of the speed, she showed a different dimension last out after slightly missing the break and rallying from off the pace. Now 5 for 6 at the 6 furlong distance, Yuugiri is already a graded stakes winner around 2 turns (gr.3 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn last year) and looms the one to beat under Flavian Prat. Just to her inside, 5-Happy Soul adds blinkers, a 25% move for trainer Wesley Ward. The filly has been coming close without winning at various tracks and levels of competition. Maybe the blinkers can put her over the line. While less experienced than most, 4-Static Fire rounds out the top contenders moving up off a win at Kentucky Downs. The filly ran well at Keeneland last fall on the dirt and appears to be developing into a very nice runner.
8th Race
When you focus on turf fillies, you start with trainer Chad Brown, and the grade 1 First Lady is no exception. Brown appears to have everyone over a barrel with three very nice runners out of 8 in the field, any one of which seems able to get the money. 3-In Italian is likely to be favored but deservedly so, with back to back grade I wins earlier in the year (including the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland). The 5-year-old mare doesn't seem to be slowing down with age; in fact, she's the speed of the speed and with the possible exception of one other horse, is likely to be alone on the engine. Very tough to get past In Italian, but her stablemate 2-Whitebeam has the look of a horse getting good at the right time. The Juddmonte homebred won her last two including the grade I Diana at Saratoga. She shortens back up to the mile distance and is primed to be right there with her stablemate at the wire. While 1-Gina Romantica rounds out the Brown trio, 4-Jumbly has to be considered for Joseph O'Brien. The filly traveled from Britain over the summer to just miss in the Ballston Spa at Saratoga. A trip back across the pond didn't amount to much lsat month, but her best definitely is good enough to be competitive here and she's likely to be good odds despite the success rate of other Euro invaders,
9th Race
The grade I Breeders' Futurity features gets added attention as not only a prep for the Breeders Cup Juvenile it's also an early preview for the 2024 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown. In a very tough and seemingly talented group, 3-Awesome Road impressed in is lone start at Ellis Park for Brad Cox, An expensive Keeneland yearling purchase, the colt is impeccably bred with reason to believe he will be better at longer distances. Top pick here, although there are a lot of other interesting choices, like 9-Locked, who broke his maiden going a mile at Saratoga and did it drawing away despite pressure in the early stages, or 1-The Wine Steward, who is undefeated in three starts and has already proven able to win from the inside post.
10th Race
Another stepping stone to the Breeders' Cup Turf Mile, 1-Master of the Seas looks to build on an easy victory as favorite in the Grade I Woodbine Mile. While this is a slightly tougher group than he last faced, the 5-year-old has 7 wins from 14 starts lifetime and has come to life of late with two straight wins in international stakes company. He should sit a stalking trip behind 3-Stitched and 7-Atone among others. Similarly, 9-annapolis should also sit mid pack or better and benefits with the return to Keeneland, a course he won over one year ago in this very race. Late runners like 5-Up to the Mark and 4-Set Piece may be slightly up against it with not the fastest pace to close into and only a mile to work with but each has shown ability to overcome obstacles and are coming in off grade I wins in very good form.
11th Race
Once again the day closes with an inscrutable 2-year-old maiden race with very little past performance info to work off of. On the plus side, while difficult to handicap, these races often offer good prices if you're fortunate enough to come up with the runners. 5-Miyagi is intriguing for Wayne Catalano, a trainer who definitely excels with young horses. The gelding is by Not This Time, whose offspring win 20% of the time when making their first starts. Fast works and the presence of Tyler Gaffalione make this one a top play. Cleverly named 3-Hammerstein (by the sire Oscar Performance) debuts for Brian Lynch with a series of fast works, several of which were out of the gate. Colt should be primed to break running. 1-Nash draws a tricky inside post but is a half brother to several very useful runners including Spa City as well as Sara Street, both of whom won early in their careers. If 14-Agoo draws in pay attention. The son of Munnings almost got the money in his debut last month at Churchill and there's reason to believe he can duplicate (or better) the effort.
Saturday, day 2 of the Keeneland Fall Meet
1st Race
Not an abundance of early speed in this conditioned claiming race, so 1-Master of Arms should be in the garden spot with his natural speed and inside post. Look for him to gain position early under Prat and control things from there. 6-Ala Carte drops in to the claiming ranks for the first time and, with class relief should improve. 5-Debate needs some help up front as he does his best running late, but he's another getting class relief whose best definitely marks him a top contender.
2nd Race
Giving the edge to experience in this wide open maiden juvenile event, with 1-Linzer coming off a pair of solid runner-up finishes. Blinkers come off for his third try--a key angle for trainer Stidham who has a win rate of 46% removing blinkers. 6-Gallant Mischief sports a fast, impressive work tab for his debut. Son of Into Mischief is bred to be any kind and the trainer--jockey combo of Gaffalione and Casse has been solid, especially at Keeneland over the past couple years. 7-Honky Tonk Highway was second in his lone start at Ellis and is likely to build on the effort.
3rd Race
In yet another ultra deep maiden race, most of the runners have raced previously. Of that group, 4-Take Time to Dream seems to be getting better with each start and her style suggests the longer the better. 1-Crushed Ice makes a lot of sense off a third place finish at Monmouth Park after debuting in the mud at Saratoga. Works have been swift as well. Right next door, 2-Devil Blue Dress makes her first start with some very sharp morning works and a strong rider in Luis Saez.
4th Race
5-Saffron Moon may be a short price, but she appears worth it. The Chad Brown filly is reunited with Flavian Pra, who rode her to a narrow defeat at Saratoga in August, her first start since two straight turf wins. 6-Quality Star is a horse for course with two wins from three Keeneland tries. 11-Watch This Birdie should be long odds as she moves up in class off a winning effort. Still, she's interesting here as she seems to have found new life on the grass.
5th Race
With speed to the inside courtesy of 1-Normandy Hero and 2-Baxley, 3-Alder should get the ideal set up in this talented field of juvenile sprinters, The son of Hard Spun won easily in his only try on a fast track, and trainer Cox wins 30% of the time with horses coming off wins. Bailey is talented and, if left alone on the lead could be very tough to catch although it's more likely he'll face at least a little pressure early. 7-Stormquist is one of the few offered for the $100k optional claiming price, but claimed off a winning effort for $50k by a shrewd claiming trainer, the colt seems well spotted and worth the risk. 9-Haul is hard to get a line on as he exits slower races but had trouble in graded stakes and may deserve the benefit of the doubt although at short odds, he's hard to take on top.
6th Race
The grade 2 Woodford, first of the graded stakes on tap, features some gritty turf sprinters, several of whom have an affinity for the course. The unknown quantity is British invader 2-Live In The Dream, who travels to the US off a solid win in grade I company at York. A bit of a surprise that day at 28-1, the gelding knows how to win with a 6 for 19 record lifetime, 3 for 6 this year. European horses generally seem better, overall, than our domestic runners, so the Irish bred gets the nod here over the very honest, hard trying 1-Bad Beat Brian and horse for course Kaufymaker who is seeing her third straight win while moving back up into graded stakes company.
7th Race
Female sprinters take center stage in the grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America with Yuugiri getting a perfect post in the middle of the field. While the filly may well be the speed of the speed, she showed a different dimension last out after slightly missing the break and rallying from off the pace. Now 5 for 6 at the 6 furlong distance, Yuugiri is already a graded stakes winner around 2 turns (gr.3 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn last year) and looms the one to beat under Flavian Prat. Just to her inside, 5-Happy Soul adds blinkers, a 25% move for trainer Wesley Ward. The filly has been coming close without winning at various tracks and levels of competition. Maybe the blinkers can put her over the line. While less experienced than most, 4-Static Fire rounds out the top contenders moving up off a win at Kentucky Downs. The filly ran well at Keeneland last fall on the dirt and appears to be developing into a very nice runner.
8th Race
When you focus on turf fillies, you start with trainer Chad Brown, and the grade 1 First Lady is no exception. Brown appears to have everyone over a barrel with three very nice runners out of 8 in the field, any one of which seems able to get the money. 3-In Italian is likely to be favored but deservedly so, with back to back grade I wins earlier in the year (including the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland). The 5-year-old mare doesn't seem to be slowing down with age; in fact, she's the speed of the speed and with the possible exception of one other horse, is likely to be alone on the engine. Very tough to get past In Italian, but her stablemate 2-Whitebeam has the look of a horse getting good at the right time. The Juddmonte homebred won her last two including the grade I Diana at Saratoga. She shortens back up to the mile distance and is primed to be right there with her stablemate at the wire. While 1-Gina Romantica rounds out the Brown trio, 4-Jumbly has to be considered for Joseph O'Brien. The filly traveled from Britain over the summer to just miss in the Ballston Spa at Saratoga. A trip back across the pond didn't amount to much lsat month, but her best definitely is good enough to be competitive here and she's likely to be good odds despite the success rate of other Euro invaders,
9th Race
The grade I Breeders' Futurity features gets added attention as not only a prep for the Breeders Cup Juvenile it's also an early preview for the 2024 Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown. In a very tough and seemingly talented group, 3-Awesome Road impressed in is lone start at Ellis Park for Brad Cox, An expensive Keeneland yearling purchase, the colt is impeccably bred with reason to believe he will be better at longer distances. Top pick here, although there are a lot of other interesting choices, like 9-Locked, who broke his maiden going a mile at Saratoga and did it drawing away despite pressure in the early stages, or 1-The Wine Steward, who is undefeated in three starts and has already proven able to win from the inside post.
10th Race
Another stepping stone to the Breeders' Cup Turf Mile, 1-Master of the Seas looks to build on an easy victory as favorite in the Grade I Woodbine Mile. While this is a slightly tougher group than he last faced, the 5-year-old has 7 wins from 14 starts lifetime and has come to life of late with two straight wins in international stakes company. He should sit a stalking trip behind 3-Stitched and 7-Atone among others. Similarly, 9-annapolis should also sit mid pack or better and benefits with the return to Keeneland, a course he won over one year ago in this very race. Late runners like 5-Up to the Mark and 4-Set Piece may be slightly up against it with not the fastest pace to close into and only a mile to work with but each has shown ability to overcome obstacles and are coming in off grade I wins in very good form.
11th Race
Once again the day closes with an inscrutable 2-year-old maiden race with very little past performance info to work off of. On the plus side, while difficult to handicap, these races often offer good prices if you're fortunate enough to come up with the runners. 5-Miyagi is intriguing for Wayne Catalano, a trainer who definitely excels with young horses. The gelding is by Not This Time, whose offspring win 20% of the time when making their first starts. Fast works and the presence of Tyler Gaffalione make this one a top play. Cleverly named 3-Hammerstein (by the sire Oscar Performance) debuts for Brian Lynch with a series of fast works, several of which were out of the gate. Colt should be primed to break running. 1-Nash draws a tricky inside post but is a half brother to several very useful runners including Spa City as well as Sara Street, both of whom won early in their careers. If 14-Agoo draws in pay attention. The son of Munnings almost got the money in his debut last month at Churchill and there's reason to believe he can duplicate (or better) the effort.
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