Saturday 10/7/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita Park

Santa Anita Park - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 2-3-4) $0.50 Early Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
SO $50,000 • 6 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 •Purse: $36,000 • Post: 1:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING $50,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (HORSES ENTERED FOR THE ALLOWANCE ARE PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DEVIL MOON: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layof f. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CASTLEKNOCK: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DUTY FIRST: Today is a sprint and this is th e horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
1	DEVIL MOON	6/1	7/2
4	CASTLEKNOCK	2/1	9/2
6	DUTY FIRST	9/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DEVIL MOON	1	6/1	Front-runner	96	90	100.0	87.2	82.7
4	CASTLEKNOCK	4	2/1	Front-runner	96	95	88.9	87.0	82.0
5	TICKLE MY FANCY	5	6/1	Front-runner	72	80	85.7	71.4	61.4
3	MISTER BEAMS	3	12/1	Stalker	82	74	101.4	70.2	57.2
2	SANGER	2	5/2	Stalker	85	84	76.9	72.8	63.8
6	DUTY FIRST	6	9/2	Stalker	90	96	76.8	80.0	74.0
8	STORMING MACHINE	7	6/1	Stalker	86	83	70.1	80.5	73.5

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Santa Anita - Race #10 - Post: 5:41pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $63,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating:

#6 ALVINA (FR) (ML=8/1)
#8 SECRETS TOLD (ML=7/2)
#10 JUST NAILS (ML=5/1)
#4 KISSED BY FIRE (ML=4/1)


ALVINA (FR) - Owns the highest speed rating on the turf at this distance. Franco was aboard this filly in the last race and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. Don't often see a favorable ROI like +109. This rider/trainer twosome has done well together over the last 12 months. The thoroughbred with the top average Equibase class figure in turf events is usually a solid play. This pony fits the bill. SECRETS TOLD - Mare had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. JUST NAILS - I just may give this one a good shot. Should rebound off last race where she did run outside the top 3, but was within 5 lengths at the end. Atop this horse on August 31st and Desormeaux is back again in the irons in this race. I like this filly. Has the uppermost earnings per race entered in this contest. KISSED BY FIRE - When Smith and Eurton combine forces on animals the ROI has been fantastic at +154. Look at this pattern of improvement. 85/88/93 are the last three speed ratings. Eurton has a very strong win pct in turf sprints. This filly should be in shape and ready to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 RAGTIME ROSE (ML=8/1), #7 GEM MINE (ML=8/1), #9 REAL FIRE (ML=8/1),

RAGTIME ROSE - The veterans will probably defeat this young horse today. GEM MINE - I'm prognosticating a less than stellar go of it out of her today. REAL FIRE - This filly hasn't had any positive efforts in sprint affairs in the last 60 days.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 ALVINA (FR) to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [4,8,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	6 with [4,8,10] with [4,8,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	6 with [4,8,10] with [4,8,10] with [4,8,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	[6,8] with [4,6,8,10] with [4,6,8,10] with [4,5,6,8,10,11] with [4,5,6,8,10,11] Total Cost: $72

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Post: 2:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 87 - Purse:$70000 - NEW JERSEY SIRE STAKES - SDF - 3 YEAR OLD COLT PACE FINAL D. DUBE CHOOSES NO. 3 OVER NO. 7

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 STAY GROUNDED 7/5
# 7 PEPPERMINT MAN 6/1
# 6 TASTE OF HONEY 9/2

STAY GROUNDED most definitely gets the edge as the solid standardbred to beat this time. Positive thought - racing well enough to contend in this race. He has been performing strongly and the speed ratings are among the most solid in the field. With a 86 avg class number, this interesting entrant has one of the best class advantages in the field of starters. PEPPERMINT MAN - This gelding getting the victory wouldn't be impossible, a chance. TASTE OF HONEY - This contest could be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage speed figure will confirm that. Seems to have a very good class edge based on the opponents he has raced against.

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Red Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 2:35 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$71000 - INTERNATIONAL STALLION STAKES #121 2 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS SPONSORED BY: TALL DARK STRANGER SYNDICATE & HANOVER SHOE FARMS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 NEWSROOM 8/5
# 2 BOSTON ROCKS 4/1
# 7 ROCK THE CAPTAIN N 12/1

Feel pretty confident putting some green stuff down on NEWSROOM. He has been performing solidly and the TrackMaster speed figs are among the finest in the group of horses. Many analyzers will recognize the fantastic speed rating in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this race. Substantial driver-trainer figures make this contender a bang-up choice. Most definitely will be putting money down in this race. BOSTON ROCKS - Tetrick fits this fine animal's style perfectly. They've enjoyed some magnificent results when working their magic together. With Tetrick in the bike, watch out for this standardbred to get the win. ROCK THE CAPTAIN N - Many analyzers favor this horse on the driver-trainer ratings alone. The better than average return on investment for contenders starting from the 7 hole makes this nice horse a terrific wager.

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at The Loop

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
4	4	TUFF AS BUFF	2/1	Piwniuk, Blake F - 57	412.62
2	2	LITIZOR	5/1	Remillard, Richard A - 25	386.33
3	3	IMA MOMAS BOY	3/1	Fillion, Marc J - 13	348.48
5	5	GRAY ZEE	6/1	Grundy, Tyler D - 13	331.07
1	1	BUDDY LIGHT	4/1	Rey, Michel - 9	311.56

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Century Mile

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
3	3	GREY HORIZON	4/5	Campbell, J Brandon - 24	383.68
2	2	TZILACATZIN	7/2	Brown, Christopher A - 3	322.30
5	5	ONE MORE ROCKY	6/1	Hennessy, Michael R - 15	310.96
6	6	NEVADA DRAGON	10/1	Sobey, Nathan K - 22	309.83
1	1	HF WINKNAT JENNA	4/1	Kelly, David A - 20	305.48
7	7	SHARK ATTACK	8/1	Giesbrecht, Philip - 12	302.72
4	4	CENALTA GUNFIRE	12/1	Hoerdt, Kelly O - 9	222.01

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BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

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Keeneland - Race #6

#7 Coppola	I honestly think you can make a case for most of these relative to their price in a really fun race, and this has held good form while proving competitive with some of the players he'll meet today. Draws well for a perfect first-jump trip if he's good enough.
#6 Olympic Runner	I really liked his last finishing effort on a course that wasn't super kind to those types this season, and he is probably going to find a similar closing trip while turning back a bit. He scored at this sharper trip two starts back, and I don't think he's out of the question here with something similar.
#2 Live in the Dream	He'll make his North American debut off an upset win at 28/1, and he probably has enough pace to get in the mix early on if he can avoid missing what is sometimes a troublesome American start at a short trip that doesn't leave a lot of room for error.
Race Summary	Coppola is one of many with a claim on this, and I'm hoping he'll be able to punch home from a dreamy spot at a midrange price. Think there are a few who are going to be looking to land that exact same trip, and this is a spot in which I really wouldn't argue with anyone.

Keeneland - Race #9

#7 Just Steel	Giving him a chance to bounce back a bit here, as he might find a pressing spot right up near the top with a bit more modest tempo while trying two turns. Decent price with a small shot today.
#9 Locked	He finished behind the top choice in his debut run before graduating by better than seven lengths when stretching out for the first time, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him with some more upside at this point. Can be tough.
#5 West Saratoga	He's aiming for his third straight today, and he has been in the mix with a couple of the interesting players lined up today. Worth a look if the price is right.
Race Summary	Just Steel has a little appeal for me in here, as he's fast enough to be right up on the splits, and I'm hoping a few of these will want to see if they can settle a bit while going long.

Keeneland - Race #11

#5 Miyagi	Get a look at him on the track and tote, but he's been drilling locally ahead of this and snags Gaffalione for the first trip to post. Could see it.
#7 Booth	He feels like the type that Asmussen might have ready to roll in a spot like this, as this team has done some serious work with similar horses in the past here. Obvious chance on paper.
#1 Nash	He's bred to be a good one and might be solid enough to win going short at first asking, but I'm more interested to see what this guy's bringing going a mile or so in his next start.
Race Summary	Think there are a few potentially interesting players out on the also-eligible list, so make sure to take another spin through after scratches. Miyagi has the most appeal on paper for me in here, and I like that Gaffalione signs on at first asking for a team that can get the right ones ready.

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FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

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Laurel Park - Race #2

#3 SHINY SLAM (4-1)	Rallied widest in lane to win in second try off Gonzalez claim after pace fell apart.
#5 EVERLY’S GIRL (1-1)	Proven allowance form against Cal breds, first start off cross-country journey.
#1 HAPPY CLOUDS (7-2)	First or second in 9 of 10 starts this year, all at 2-1 odds or less.
Race Summary	SHINY SLAM benefitted from an ideal set-up but raced 7-wide in the stretch to prevail. She surged late to defeat the second favorite, earning the top speed figure of her career. She has her work cut out to repeat, but the price should be right for a win and place wager.

Laurel Park - Race #3

#7 LA FANTASMA (7-2)	Tries to follow in turf footsteps of her dam in debut route attempt.
#3 WARIDI CANDI (10-1)	Took lead while in-hand on turn, out-gamed by the fave in improved try.
#1 CHICKEN PARM (9-2)	Russell firster has bloodlines to run long; sire was G-I winner of $2.9 million.
Race Summary	LA FANTASMA shows a three-month break in her workout tab, but she is in capable hands to win at first asking and her dam, Special Event, was multiple graded stakes-placed on turf. Play a 7-ALL exacta.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#3 CALL ANOTHER PLAY (4-1)	Ability showed on turf and dirt, expect another big effort in third start.
#6 CAP CLASSIQUE (5-2)	Stalked 3- and 4-wide, wore down 2-1 first-time starter to prevail.
#4 BEACHFRONT BREEZE (3-1)	Good speed, shorter distance, fourth track in as many starts.
Race Summary	CALL ANOTHER PLAY finished second in her debut to Determined Driver, who came back to finish second in a $75,000 stakes race at Timonium. She switched to the main track and drew away in the stretch despite lugging in when clear. Bet to win and place.

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Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 7, 2023
Oct. 05, 2023
Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday October 7 | Post Time 5:14 PM Eastern

Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Two Year Olds


Analysis and Top contenders:


In a fantastic edition of the Breeders’ Futurity, a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in four weeks, nine horses line up and seven either won or finished second in their most recent races. ALL except one are turning two-turns for the first time, adding to the intrigue.

That being said, Brad Cox has what looks to be a pair of top contenders in Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2), both with good inside posts and having run faster than just about every other horse in the field in their most recent races. Cox saddled Essential Quality to win this race in 2020, off a maiden win at six furlongs, and that is exactly the same pattern for Awesome Road entering this race. Flattered when both the runner-up and fourth place finishers improved to win their next starts, Awesome Road is also bred to adore this longer trip, perhaps more than most, as four of the other six foals of his dam are dirt route winners, accounting for 12 wins between them. Not only did Cox get Essential Quality to win this race off just a six furlong maiden win, he also saddled Loggins to be second in the 2022 Breeders’ Futurity, as well as the 2019 and 2021 winners of the female equivalent of this race at Keeneland, the Alcibiades Stakes. With the second highest Equibase Speed Figure (93) to improve upon off the experience of a race, Awesome Road gets slight preference over his stablemate Timberlake.

Timberlake (2) has run three ties. The first effort resulted in a sixth of 10 finish after a slow start, but then when blinkers were added for his second start, the colt romped by nine lengths with a field high tying (with The Wine Steward (1) ) 96 figure. Sent from Kentucky to New York for the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes and sent to post as the 2 to 1 favorite, Timberlake rallied from fourth to make the lead in the stretch before being overtaken and settling for second. Cox now takes blinkers off, likely designed to insure Timberlake can see if another horse is coming up on his inside or outside and dig in late. Also, from the inside, it is possible Timberlake may go for the lead from the start, which is how he earned his win in July. He does have tremendous early speed if needed and could prove tough to catch if he repeats that July 21 race.

The Wine Steward (1) has won all three races he’s run, all at six furlongs or less, but his pedigree suggests he should have no issue with the distance as he’s a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso. Jockey Luis Saez, recently returned from an injury, rode The Wine Steward in his win on July 2 where the colt showed a lot of maturity when relaxing in fourth in the early stages before responding to his jockey’s urging to draw off late. Most recently in the Funny Cide Stakes, restricted to horses bred in New York, The Wine Steward earned a 96 Equibase Speed Figure, as good as the one Timberlake earned in July, and if able to run as well on the stretch out to this distance, this colt has a shot at posting the upset, opening at 6 to 1.

Honorable mention goes to Northern Flame (8) and to Generous Tipper (6), who starts at odds of 20 to 1 and 15 to 1, respectively. Those are WAY TOO HIGH odds to ignore as these two come from the barn of strong trainer Kenny McPeek who won the 2021 Breeders’ Futurity with Rattle N Roll and who saddled Signalman to a second place finish in 2018. Generous Tipper finished fifth in his debut, on turf in July, then when switched to the main track finished second in early August before a rousing seven length win at a mile on August 28, a race in which stablemate Northern Flame was third, before improving to win on September 15. Generous Tipper earned a 90 figure for that win, and Northern Flame improved his speed figure nine points when he won the next month, so if the pattern holds Generous Tipper and Northern Flame can outrun their high odds here to help us with a profitable exacta or trifecta.

As to the likely favorite, perhaps prohibitively so, that is Locked (9), who starts at 7 to 5 odds. He won impressively by seven lengths at a mile at Saratoga last month and is making his third career start so can improve. On the other hand, he was second for the first half-mile of that race from the five post and his draw in the gate today might be disadvantageous as Northern Flame led from start to finish in his most recent race, as Just Steel (7) was on the lead early in his most recent race, as Generous Tipper led from start to finish in his last win and as Awesome Road, Timberlake and The Wine Steward all have some early speed and much better tactical position. As such, I’m not sold on Locked as much of a contender to win as the odds suggest, and will try to beat him.

Bets:

Win: Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2) should be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

The Wine Steward (1) can be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 1 or more, and Northern Flame (8) and Generous Tipper (6) can be considered for win bets at 8 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2)

Box Awesome Road (3), Timberlake (2), Generous Tipper (6) and Northern Flame (8)

Trifecta:

Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2) over ALL over Awesome Road (3) and Timberlake (2)

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Belmont Park Tip Sheet - October 7

Oct. 06, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 60% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 CROWN THAT SAINT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	8	Crown That Saint	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	4-1	4	Uncle Eddie	J Castellano
SHOW	6-1	2	Rudy Rudy Rudy	R Silvera
WILD CARD	7-2	1	Guanare	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Badlands Ruler	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Cowboy Luke	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #2 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 WARRIOR RICHARD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Warrior Richard	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	3-1	5	Gut Feeling	M Franco
SHOW	7-2	4	Strapped	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	4-1	8	Whats Up Doc	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	South Street	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Achilles Heel	R Silvera
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX
RACE #3 $200,000 STAKES 1 3/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 WAYA STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	4	Personal Best	J Castellano
PLACE	15-1	1	Idea Generation	F Geroux
SHOW	3-5	5	McKulick	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	4-5	7	Movie Moxy	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	2-1	8	Peak Popularity	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Sister Otoole	F Lynch
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
COMMENTS: PERSONAL BEST is a consistent performer that ran her best race on Aqueduct grass. IDEA GENERATION was much better early on her last and leapt forward in the only other second up start. MCKULICK has dominating late pace and could be at her best in the third start after a layoff. MOVIE MOXY is out top pick if the race is moves to the main track.
RACE #4 $500,000 STAKES 1 1/2 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $500,000 JOE HIRSCH TURF CLASSIC GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	War Like Goddess	J Alvarado
PLACE	9-5	4	Rebels Romance	W Buick
SHOW	30-1	3	Grand Sonata	M Franco
WILD CARD	5-1	6	Soldier Rising	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Astronaut	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Pioneering Spirit	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
COMMENTS: WAR LIKE GODDESS ran the highest last race speed rating by 6 points. REBELS ROMANCE has five wins in six races at the distance and wins or runs off the board. GRAND SONATA is a longshot with a good chance in his third start off the bench. SOLDIER RISING showed more interest early in his last and usually saves his best for the stretch run.
RACE #5 $400,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:12 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $400,000 FRIZETTE STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	6	Emery	M Franco
PLACE	9-5	2	Life Talk	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	9-2	1	Irish Maxima	J Rendon
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Just F Y I	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Central Avenue	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Princess Indy	J Torres
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
COMMENTS: EMERY won her debut with ease with a first class mid move. LIFE TALK is a head from being undefeated in two and has a bullet work between races. IRISH MAXIMA is unbeaten in two wins and is yet to be challenged. JUST F Y I was well bet in a solid debut with little falloff from gate to wire.
RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 BELMONT TURF SPRINT GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	7	Todays Flavor	J Castellano
PLACE	8-1	3	Alogon	A Adorno
SHOW	10-1	12	Nothing Better	J Rendon
WILD CARD	5-2	1	Big Invasion	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	11	Dancing Buck	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	9	Thin White Duke	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/12 BOX, 1/3/12 BOX
COMMENTS: TODAYS FLAVOR should be on the front trying to take them gate to wire. ALOGON hit the board in seven of his eight turf efforts. NOTHING BETTER finished second by a head in his last race and has a bullet work between starts. BIG INVASION missed by a neck last out and has a pair of sharp maintenance works since.
RACE #7 $100,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 IMHAVINGAMOMENT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	Imhavingamoment	J Alvarado
PLACE	8-1	4	Royal Poppy	D Davis
SHOW	9-2	1	Security Code	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	4-1	8	Obrigada	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	White Chocolate	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Cupids Girl	M Franco
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
RACE #8 $500,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:46 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $500,000 CHAMPAGNE STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	6	Fierceness	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	8-1	5	El Grande O	K Carmouche
SHOW	7-2	4	General Partner	M Franco
WILD CARD	3-1	3	Timberlake	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Gold Sweep	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Air Cav	D Davis
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
COMMENTS: FIERCENESS won his debut by 11 lengths as the 6 to 5 favorite. EL GRANDE O has some early speed with Kendrick Carmouche riding which should be a good combination. GENERAL PARTNER tied for the highest last speed rating in dominating maiden score. TIMBERLAKE has been the betting favorite in each of his three starts winning one in dominant fashion.
RACE #9 $500,000 STAKES 1 3/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $500,000 JOCKEY CLUB INVITATIONAL GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	1	Measured Time	W Buick
PLACE	8-1	2	Faraday	M Franco
SHOW	7-2	3	Webslinger	J Castellano
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Classic Catch	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Fearless Soldier	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	7	Anglophile	D Cannon
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
COMMENTS: MEASURED TIME is unbeaten in three and ships in from England. FARADAY is improving from race to race to race and would be key for the win if the trend continues. WEBSLINGER is trending in the right direction and hit 100 on the speed gun in his last. CLASSIC CATCH ran the highest last race speed figure by 6 points.
RACE #10 $100,000 ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:53 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	5	Makers Candy	M Franco
PLACE	2-1	10	Frat Pack	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	10-1	2	Lafittes Fleet	R Silvera
WILD CARD	6-1	1A	Full Moon Madness	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	11	Oceans Reserve	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Shaky Pants	J Alvarado
* EXACTA: 5-10 BOX, 10-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/10 BOX, 1/2/10 BOX
RACE #11 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:24 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	1	Smokin Hot Kitty	K Carmouche
PLACE	9-2	8	Bernt Again	M Franco
SHOW	20-1	11	Russiarussiarussia	F Geroux
WILD CARD	5-1	9	Diamond Status	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	9-5	12	Roman Goddess	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	5	Miss San Gabriel	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 1-8 BOX, 8-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/11 BOX, 8/9/11 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 7

Oct. 06, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $40,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	6	A La Carte	L Saez
PLACE	12-1	8	Fan the Fire	G Corrales
SHOW	7-2	4	Captain Jack	Y Navas
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Debate	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Master of Arms	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Pennys Prospect	A Achard
* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX
RACE #2 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	1	Linzer	J Rosario
PLACE	9-2	13	Bergen	F Prat
SHOW	9-2	3	Know Who You Are	A Achard
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Gallant Mischief	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	15	Higginsville	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Promissio	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 1-13 BOX, 13-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/13 BOX, 3/6/13 BOX
RACE #3 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 INSENSITIVE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Insensitive	F Arrieta
PLACE	9-2	2	Devil Blue Dress	L Saez
SHOW	3-1	4	Take Time to Dream	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Icicles	J Gilligan
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Three Polks	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Crushed Ice	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
RACE #4 $120,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 SAFFRON MOON
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Saffron Moon	F Prat
PLACE	7-2	1	Willakia	T Gaffalione
SHOW	4-1	13	Im So Sorry	L Saez
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Quality Star	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	10	Beechnut Trophy	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	14	Morgs World	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-13 BOX, 13-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/13 BOX, 1/6/13 BOX
RACE #5 $110,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 BAXLEY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	2	Baxley	G Corrales
PLACE	2-1	3	Alder	T Gaffalione
SHOW	8-1	9	Haul	L Saez
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Normandy Hero	A Achard
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	4	Valentine Candy	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Stormquist	B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX
RACE #6 $350,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $350,000 WOODFORD STAKES GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	8	Our Shot	T Gaffalione
PLACE	12-1	9	Kaufymaker	L Saez
SHOW	4-1	11	Beer Can Man	F Prat
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Live In The Dream	S Kirrane
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Bad Beat Brian	C A Emigh
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Coppola	M Garcia
* EXACTA: 3,8,9,11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,8,9,11 BOX
COMMENTS: OUR SHOT is a fan of the distance with three wins along with a second and third is a half dozen tries. KAUFYMAKER tends to run well off the bench with three wins in the last four times. BEER CAN MAN is another that fancies the distance with six wins in 10 races and just one in six at any other length. LIVE IN THE DREAM makes his US debut after facing tough group rated races in England.
RACE #7 $350,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $350,000 TBRED CLUB OF AMERICA STAKES GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Wicked Halo	T Gaffalione
PLACE	2-1	6	Yuugiri	F Prat
SHOW	7-2	4	Static Fire	C A Torres
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Fire On Time	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Happy Soul	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	3	Last Leaf	L Saez
* EXACTA: 1,2,4,6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,6/1.2,4,6/1,2,4,5,6
COMMENTS: WICKED HALO is a consistent top end performer with three wins and three seconds in seven starts at the distance. YUUGIRI loves the distance with five wins in six races. STATIC FIRE does her best when she challenges for the lead and should be no worse than second early. FIRE ON TIME ran better race internals in her last and will likely up her game in the second start after a layoff.
RACE #8 $750,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:43 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $750,000 FIRST LADY STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	3	In Italian	J Rosario
PLACE	10-1	1	Gina Romantica	T Gaffalione
SHOW	15-1	5	Gams Mission	A Beschizza
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Whitebeam	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Evvie Jets	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Jumbly	J R Velazquez
* EXACTA: 1,2,3,5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/1,2,4,5,8/1,2,5
COMMENTS: IN ITALIAN is coming off the bench after some rest. She has four wins and a second in the last five first up runs. GINA ROMANTICA won her lone race at Keeneland with one of her best performances and would be a top contender on a wet dirt track too. GAMS MISSIONs last race might have been a win if the jockey did not drop the crop. WHITEBEAM could be the best horse in the race if she is ready coming off a two month rest.
RACE #9 $600,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:14 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $600,000 BREEDERS FUTURITY GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	9	Locked	J L Ortiz
PLACE	8-1	1	The Wine Steward	L Saez
SHOW	3-1	3	Awesome Road	F Prat
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Timberlake	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	5	West Saratoga	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	Generous Tipper	B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 9/1,2,3,5
* TRIFECTA: 9/1,2,3,5/1,2,3,5,6
COMMENTS: LOCKED looks like he has a legit chance to be a serious player for the 2024 Kentucky Derby. THE WINE STEWARD is undefeated in three and should improve in the second start off the sidelines. AWESOME ROAD ran a robust race with very little falloff in his debut and could have more endurance today. TIMBERLAKE has been the betting favorite in all three starts and won the only race when he did not experience trouble. A clean trip is all he needs.
RACE #10 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M TURF MILE STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Up to the Mark	J L Ortiz
PLACE	2-1	1	Master of The Seas	J Doyle
SHOW	6-1	9	Annapolis	F Prat
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Indestructible	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Set Piece	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	30-1	6	English Bee	J R Velazquez
* EXACTA: 1,2,5,9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,3,9/1,2,3,5,9/1,3,9
COMMENTS: UP TO THE MARK should be right off the pace at the jump and can make amazing mid moves that propel him to the finish line with a lot of momentum. MASTER OF THE SEAS trainer Charles Appleby wins graded stakes races at an amazing 43 percent. ANNAPOLIS has won more than 1 million dollars at the distance. INDESTRUCTIBLE ran in seven consecutive group rated races in Europe and makes his US debut today.
RACE #11 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Nash	F Prat
PLACE	9-2	4	Rapoport	J L Ortiz
SHOW	4-1	7	Booth	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	14	Agoo	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Miyagi	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Hammerstein	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 4/7/14 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - October 7

Oct. 06, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	8	Riley G	J J Hernandez
PLACE	6-1	2	Side by Side	A Aguilar
SHOW	5-2	4	Miss Monarch Bay	G Franco
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Report	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	9	Lisas Nonno	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Sultry Kitten	J Torrealba
* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/8 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #2 $36,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	1	Devil Moon	J Bravo
PLACE	5-2	2	Sanger	J J Hernandez
SHOW	9-2	6	Duty First	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	2-1	4	Castleknock	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Mister Beams	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	8	Storming Machine	V Cheminaud
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
RACE #3 $200,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:03 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 CHANDELIER STAKES GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	Laurent	E A Maldonado
PLACE	3-1	7	Dua	J J Hernandez
SHOW	4-1	1	Chatalas	A Fresu
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Autumn Chill	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Gate to Paradise	K J Desormeaux
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	2	Scalable	M E Smith
* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
COMMENTS: LAURENT was way wide last out and just needs a little better trip here. DUA won her debut for Bob Baffert before faltering in a Grade III. She comes back fresh again. CHATALAS ran faster at 7 furlongs than she did in 5 and a half for her debut. AUTUMN CHILL increased his speed figures in both races post debut and has a few maintenance works between races.
RACE #4 $100,000 STAKES 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 SPEAKEASY STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Slider	H I Berrios
PLACE	5-1	6	Mysticism	R A Vazquez
SHOW	4-1	1	Dark Vintage	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	6-1	9	Lord Prancealot	K J Desormeaux
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	3	Charge for Gold	R Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	10	April Vintage	A Fresu
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX
COMMENTS: SLIDER ran a last race speed figure 13 points higher than the closest foe. MYSTICISM went wire to wire in her debut and should be close to the front again today. DARK VINTAGE has a win and third in two races at the distance and some nice works between starts. LORD PRANCEALOT tries turf for the first time but should have the breeding to be successful.
RACE #5 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:07 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 STAY ON THE FENCE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	9	Stay On the Fence	M Gutierrez
PLACE	7-2	3	Petesoldfashioned	E A Maldonado
SHOW	6-1	1	Magic Spoon	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Stolen Treasure	G Franco
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	6	Red On Sunday	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Jarama	J Torrealba
* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #6 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:39 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	8	Lord Bullingdon	J J Hernandez
PLACE	4-1	14	Ngannou	U Rispoli
SHOW	5-1	4	Andreadytorumble	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Stay Hot	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	9	Sand Bagger	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	12	Coach Prime	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 8-14 BOX, 14-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/14 BOX, 3/4/14 BOX
RACE #7 $20,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:11 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 BAGS GOLD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	9	Bags Gold	E A Maldonado
PLACE	7-2	6	Book Smart	G Franco
SHOW	12-1	11	Trusty Rusty	E Payeras
WILD CARD	20-1	3	Curly Esa	A Ayuso
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	Comradery	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	10	Egomania	E Hernandez
* EXACTA: 9-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/9/11 BOX, 3/6/11 BOX
RACE #8 $300,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 7:41 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 RODEO DRIVE STAKES GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Closing Remarks	J J Hernandez
PLACE	9-5	6	Didia	V Cheminaud
SHOW	20-1	5	Stoic Luna	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	2-1	2	Anisette	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Turnerloose	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Juncture	M E Smith
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
COMMENTS: CLOSING REMARKS improved from race to race and might continue the trend in the third up outing. DIDIA has eight wins and two seconds in 12 career races including the highest last race speed figure. STOIC LUNA won three in a row and is not that far from reaching the winners circle in seven of the last eight. ANISETTE is unbeaten in thee since arriving from England.
RACE #9 $300,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:11 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 AMERICAN PHAROAH STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	2	Muth	J J Hernandez
PLACE	12-1	4	Wine Me Up	R A Vazquez
SHOW	4-1	3	Next Level	K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD	15-1	8	El Magnifico	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Be You	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Raging Torrent	A Fresu
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX
COMMENTS: MUTH ran the top last race speed figure and has beaten a few of the other top contenders. WINE ME UP won his debut despite a bobble at the start. NEXT LEVEL is moving up the ladder race after race and could benefit from going a little longer here. EL MAGNIFICO has been consistent in his first two races and might enjoy a longer run today.
RACE #10 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:41 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 KISSED BY FIRE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Kissed by Fire	M E Smith
PLACE	8-1	9	Real Fire	U Rispoli
SHOW	7-2	8	Secrets Told	K Frey
WILD CARD	5-1	10	Just Nails	K J Desormeaux
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Gem Mine	J Valdivia Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Ragtime Rose	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 8/9/10 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Handicappers' Consensus for Saturday, October 7

View Consensus for 10/08/2023
View Consensus for 10/11/2023
View Consensus for 10/12/2023
View Consensus for 10/13/2023

	Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Caton Bredar	Kim Nelson
1	6 A La Carte 5 Debate 3 Penny's Prospect	4 Captain Jack 2 Gunner Bay 3 Penny's Prospect	3 Penny's Prospect 5 Debate 6 A La Carte	1 Master of Arms 6 A La Carte 5 Debate	6 A La Carte 5 Debate 4 Captain Jack
2	6 Gallant Mischief 5 Vesture 1 Linzer	5 Vesture 1 Linzer 6 Gallant Mischief	6 Gallant Mischief 1 Linzer 3 Know Who You Are	1 Linzer 6 Gallant Mischief 7 Honky Tonk Highway	6 Gallant Mischief 2 Surf City 1 Linzer
3	6 Three Polks 5 Icicles 7 Insensitive	6 Three Polks 3 Raggity Sand 7 Insensitive	6 Three Polks 2 Devil Blue Dress 3 Raggity Sand	4 Take Time to Dream 1 Crushed Ice 2 Devil Blue Dress	4 Take Time to Dream 2 Devil Blue Dress 6 Three Polks
4	5 Saffron Moon 8 Zawish 1 Willakia	1 Willakia 13 I'm So Sorry 5 Saffron Moon	1 Willakia 5 Saffron Moon 6 Quality Star	5 Saffron Moon 6 Quality Star 11 Watch This Birdie	5 Saffron Moon 1 Willakia 2 Lady Arsinoe
5	4 Valentine Candy 2 Baxley 9 Haul	3 Alder 4 Valentine Candy 2 Baxley	4 Valentine Candy 3 Alder 9 Haul	3 Alder 2 Baxley 7 Stormquist	4 Valentine Candy 3 Alder 9 Haul
6	1 Bad Beat Brian 8 Our Shot 9 Kaufymaker	9 Kaufymaker 8 Our Shot 2 Live In The Dream (IRE)	5 Arzak 4 Eye Witness 8 Our Shot	2 Live In The Dream (IRE) 1 Bad Beat Brian 9 Kaufymaker	6 Olympic Runner 1 Bad Beat Brian 11 Beer Can Man
7	6 Yuugiri 1 Wicked Halo 5 Happy Soul	1 Wicked Halo 4 Static Fire 6 Yuugiri	2 Fire On Time 1 Wicked Halo 5 Happy Soul	6 Yuugiri 5 Happy Soul 4 Static Fire	1 Wicked Halo 6 Yuugiri 4 Static Fire
8	3 In Italian (GB) 2 Whitebeam (GB) 4 Jumbly (GB)	2 Whitebeam (GB) 3 In Italian (GB) 5 Gam's Mission	2 Whitebeam (GB) 3 In Italian (GB) 4 Jumbly (GB)	3 In Italian (GB) 2 Whitebeam (GB) 4 Jumbly (GB)	3 In Italian (GB) 2 Whitebeam (GB) 1 Gina Romantica
9	3 Awesome Road 9 Locked 1 The Wine Steward	3 Awesome Road 9 Locked 2 Timberlake	6 Generous Tipper 2 Timberlake 9 Locked	3 Awesome Road 9 Locked 1 The Wine Steward	1 The Wine Steward 9 Locked 6 Generous Tipper
10	5 Up to the Mark 9 Annapolis 1 Master of The Seas (IRE)	1 Master of The Seas (IRE) 5 Up to the Mark 4 Set Piece (GB)	4 Set Piece (GB) 1 Master of The Seas (IRE) 5 Up to the Mark	1 Master of The Seas (IRE) 9 Annapolis 5 Up to the Mark	5 Up to the Mark 1 Master of The Seas (IRE) 3 Stitched
11	3 Hammerstein 7 Booth 5 Miyagi	7 Booth 4 Rapoport 1 Nash	5 Miyagi 9 Who's the King 1 Nash	5 Miyagi 3 Hammerstein 1 Nash	5 Miyagi 1 Nash 4 Rapoport

[ConleyPicks]

SCOTT HAZELTON

Happy Fall Stars Saturday at Keeneland!

1st Race
6-5-3

#6 A La Carte takes a big step down in competition today and face the horse in his last race that won Four in a Row., including finishing second to one of the best horses in training, Cody’s Wish. #5 Debate had a very white trip last time out against a tougher group. Maybe wide today but this competition should be more to his liking. #3 Penny’s Prospect will be quick early on, but I’m worried this race may just be a hair too far for him. His trainer is coming off of a great Churchill Downs meet in September.


2nd Race
6-5-1

#6 Gallant Mischief rent a very good race in the early stages of his debut effort back at the beginning of September in New York at Saratoga. His trainer Al Stall, Junior is excellent when moving horses to dirt races off of a turf effort winning 21% of the time in those situations as this horse has found himself in. #1 Linzer has run twice both finishing seconds, including his first race, which was a second to eventual G1 winner, Nutella Fella. That experience should go along way today.



3rd Race
6-5-7

#6 Three Polks moves to dirt off of one turf race and her trainer. John Ortiz has a very good win percentage when horses go turf to dirt winning at 18%. #5 Icicles has shown some talent in her two races, but hasn't raced in nine months as she gets it for her Keeneland's debut. Blinkers are being added for the new trainer that has her now John Ennis. Grow up potential. #7 Insensitive comes in from Iowa with a lot of seasoning as she gets it for her seventh start. It's an aggressive move, but don't be surprised if this filly runs big.


4th Race
5-8-1

#5 Saffron Moon looks like she's sitting on a win based on her most recent start almost 2 months ago at Saratoga or she was barely beaten. Tough to pick against. #8 Zawish has Earlie speed but I don't think she needs to have lead in this race and she's been very consistent over the course of her career which goes a long way. #1 Willakia has one here in the past that Keeneland and his versatile sort can close from off the pace, or sit close to lead. Definitely a win candidate, even though she's my third choice in the race.



5th Race
4-2-9

#4 Valentine Candy what is a sharp winner on the view, but then could not hang in the G1 Hopeful. He should move up on the drop down in competition, even though this is not an easy race. #2 Baxley is trained by Larry Rivelli who calls this horse a “runner.” That's enough for me, even though he moves into much tougher spot. You should be good enough. #9 Haul also exits a very tough race at Saratoga and he is one that was very good on debut much like #4 Valentine Candy. A big fit here.


6th Race
1-8-9

#1 Bad Beat Brian nearly beat Caravel in the G2 Shakertown here in the spring. It's hard not to like this horse, and respect his grit and true ability. Hopefully today's the day for him at Keeneland as he seeks his first win in start five of his career. #8 Our Shot write a big race here at Keeneland to win by three links in the spring, and beat the war horse, Bound for Nowhere, doing so. He's absolutely good enough to bounce back after of narrow defeat in his most recent race, a month ago in a stake at Saratoga. #9 Kaufymaker is a filly taking on the boys, something she's very familiar with here at Keeneland especially. It's a Wesley Ward trained filly who no doubt is speedy enough early to beat this group and she's ridden by Luis Saez, who had a wonderful opening day yesterday at Keeneland.



7th Race
6-1-5

#6 Yuugiri was spectacular in her most recent win beating her main foes that she faces today. She bobbled at the store, but quickly recovered, and made easy work of that group over at Churchill Downs. Another effort like that will be good enough to handle this salty group. #1 Wicked Halo has been one of the best female sprinters in the game over the last couple of years. She didn't bring her best last time out when Yuugiri beat her on the Square but this is a horse that won the G2 Lexus Raven Run her last fall and have to assume she has a bounce back effort in her. #5 Happy Soul seems to be a crack below. The two horses mentioned above, but she's definitely worth considering finishing in the top three. She gets blinkers
back on today, which is an interesting move and trainer. Wesley Ward wins 30% of the time when he puts blinkers back on a horse or previously worn them.



8th Race
3-2-4

#3 In Italian has been a dominant force on the grade 1 front in the female turf division for several years. She loves it here at Keeneland and won this race last year, and her speed makes her so dangerous. Every time she races she was defeated in her last race by #2 Whitebeam but that was going at a longer distance, and I think that the 1 mile distance today gives the edge back to In Italian. #4 Jumbly is a filly shipping in from Europe, who has faced one of the best female turf horses, if not the best in the world, and her most recent race, a filly named Tahiiyra. She ran well in her only start in the United States in New York and she's a filly that will try to close late and try to catch them at this mile distance, which may be tough to do with the mile speed that In Italian possesses and it's so good at carrying.


9th Race
3-9-1

#3 Awesome Road what is sensational in his only start as he gets it to make start two of his career. A horse named Loggins attempted the same thing in this race last year for trainer, Brad Cox, and came inches away from winning. This colt has the talent to do it today for sure. #9 Locked Took a huge leap forward, and his most recent start and dashed away from a field. He has one race more of experience than Awesome Road which certainly is a plus and has gone two turns unlike him as well. Is equally as good so far and this is a tough pair to split for the win. #1 The Wine Steward is unbeaten in three starts and has already won two stakes. Tough horse and battle tested even more than the two horses mentioned above.


10th Race
5-9-1

#5 Up to the Mark is the best male turf horse in America in my opinion. He got behind a slow pace last spring here at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile and that cost him a win. His connections will have learned from that, and this horse should run huge today. #9 Annapolis won this Grade 1 last year in style, but has not been able to replicate something cents similar. This will be a stiff test, but he should be right there in the end at the very least. #1 Master of The Seas just toyed with the field in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile well, shipping in from Europe. This is a better group he faces today so he does have to answer that question which will be a difficult one for him.


11th Race
3-7-5

#3 Hammerstein should be a good price in his bred to win early. I'll take my shot against this group today that is filled with inexperienced horses. #7 Booth is it very well bred colt whose half brother just won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and is a leading contender for the BC Classic in a few weeks. He's definitely an interesting horse with a world of breeding and the right connections to win early in his career as he make his debut today. #5 Miyagi has been working extremely fast for his debut, and that is very difficult to ignore today.

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Saturday, October 7, 2023

What to Watch for Today: Fall Stars Saturday is the biggest day of the meeting with an 11-race card that features the Grade 1 Keeneland Turf Mile, Grade 1 First Lady and Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity among 5 stakes. Keeneland joins Santa Anita for a special $1 Breeders’ Cup Challenge Pick 6 matching the Thoroughbred Club of America (KEE); Turf Mile (KEE); Breeders' Futurity (KEE); American Pharoah Stakes (SAP); Chandelier Stakes (SAP) and the Rodeo Drive Stakes (SAP).

Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez won 3 races here opening day Friday. Today’s Keeneland Turf Pick Three races will be Races 6,8,10 for the $3 minimum, a 15% takeout wager.

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

Weather: Mostly sunny skies are in the forecast while temperatures will fight to get into the low 60s with an overnight low in the upper 30s.

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wag...pers-consensus).

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race
Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claiming sprinters on dirt open the afternoon and the early pick five. Horses from Churchill Downs have easily fared best in these N2L claimers in Fall Meets, but also keep tabs on the Horseshoe Indianapolis crowd, whose noticeable impact here also includes an average 10-1 price. That’s giving me hope for Penny’s Prospect at what should be a big price when you have A La Carte making a big and suspicious class drop from Saratoga for Bill Mott (who rarely runs a claimer here), as well as Master of Arms coming off a long layoff since March.


2nd Race
Two-year-old maiden special weights sprint 6 furlongs on dirt in the early pick four kickoff. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW dirt sprints is to follow the toteboard. Favorites are a strong 44%. Winners are evenly split among first-time starters and Churchill preppers with a massive gap to any other venue. Give extra credence if a rookie has a local Keeneland workout prior (like Toolpusher and Surf City here). Gallant Mischief is training strongly for Mark Casse and could attract a lot of attention. Sire Into Mischief is responsible for more Kee dirt winners than any other sire since the ’14 surface change. Linzer doesn’t fit the trends, per se, but his debut second to Nutella Fella looked even better when that one upset the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga next time out.


3rd Race
Elder maiden special weight sprinters extend to 7 furlongs in this one. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet elder MSW dirt races lean extremely hard to experienced horses. Only about 6% have been won by first-time starters. Devil Blue Dress is working like she’s going to get bet hard for Dale Romans and is another Into Mischief with pedigree to play locally. Churchill preppers far and away have been most successful, which serves Three Polks (by sharp Kee dirt sire Jimmy Creed) and Dream On Stormy well here. Horses with tactical early speed have been most effective in the 7-furlong offerings at this level.


4th Race
Second-level (N2X) allowance turf routers match up over 1-1/16 miles. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet turf route allowance races is for favorites to underperform (just 27%) with an average winner at 6-1 odds. These races about 40% of their winners come evenly split via Kentucky Downs and New York (Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct) with a big gap back to Churchill Downs next-best. The average winner of these races is nearly 4 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile with only 17% of winners leading that that point. No trainer has won more Fall Meet turf ALW routes here since 2006 than Graham Motion’s 25 (Willakia). Willakia, Saffron Moon and Quality Star all are local course winners in a field where the bulk have never attempted the Kee lawn.


5th Race
The pick 6 will open here in an entry-level (N1X) allowance dirt sprint at 6 furlongs. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet first-level dirt ALW races is to look for Churchill preppers, who have dominated. But horses like Stormquist and Normandy Hero via CD don’t appear to have any real edges on paper. Early speed is much more effective here at 6F. The average winner is only a half-length off the lead after the first half-mile at 6F, compared to 2 lengths back in the 7F affairs, a noticeable difference. Valentine Candy wired his debut at Saratoga before pressing the G1 Hopeful pace and should be forward. Trainer Steve Asmussen’s 4 previous Fall Meet 2YO ALW wins are second-most to Brad Cox’s 6, who sends out Alder in this spot. Both barns are around 30% in these kind of spots at Kee.


6th Race
An all-stakes pick 5 begins here as well as the Keeneland Turf Pick Three with the Woodford Stakes for grass sprinters. Favorites have won this race the last 3 years and 6 of the last 9. In the last 14 years, only 2 winners have been above 7-1 odds. While Golden Pal was good enough to wire this race the past 2 years, note the average winner the past 17 years has been 2-3/4 lengths behind after the first half-mile. There’s been no superior prep path with 13 different venues producing the last 17 winners. Trainer Wesley Ward has won this race 3 times since 2014 and sends out Eye Witness and Kaufymaker, the latter a local allowance winner at this trip during the ’22 Fall Meet. Note Ward’s 46 such wins here in the database dwarf everyone else (Todd Pletcher 8, Rusty Arnold 7 are a distant next-best). Joel Rosario is Kee’s top turf sprint jockey and partners with Arzak. Posts 3-4-5 account for 4 of the 6 wins in the Woodford when boasting a field of 12 in our database.


7th Race
The Breeders’ Cup Challenge Pick 6 begins in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes, as well as an all-stakes pick four. Horses cutting back from routes or moving turf to dirt haven’t had much success in this race, so emphasize the dirt sprint form of Wicked Halo, Fire on Time and Yuugiri, all coming out of the Open Mind Stakes at Churchill. Since returning to dirt 9 years ago, the TCA has only been won twice by horses more than 2-1/2 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile, so tilt toward speed. Fire On Time might be quickest of the group again and has a chance to wire the field. Wicked Halo won the Raven Run Stakes here last Fall at 7F, while Yuugiri struggled locally in the Madison here in April. Fire O Time beat lesser foes in her only try here in Spring ’22. Six of the last 7 TCA winners were 9-2 or less odds.


8th Race
The late pick four begins and we hit the middle leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick Three in the First Lady Stakes. Seven straight favorites have been beaten in this race and in our 17-year database, only 3 chalks have been successful. But note 15 of 17 winners were 9-2 or less, which makes this a great betting race. Trainer Chad Brown has won the last 5 editions and has them surrounded with defending champ In Italian, her Diana conqueror Whitebeam and the Beverly D runner-up Gina Romantica, winner of last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup over this course. Saratoga preppers have won this race the last 5 years and 8 of the last 9, so tab Whitebeam and In Italian’s rematch as the race within the race. Jockey Joel Rosario has won the First Lady 3 of the last 4 years and returns aboard In Italian. Whitebeam has never run at Keeneland on grass, but her sire Caravaggio has fabulous numbers here with 3 winners from only 6 starters.


9th Race
Next up is the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, which has been run 9 times since the return to dirt in Fall 2014. Only 1 of 9 winners led after the first half-mile and we’ve seen the average winner rally from 3-1/2 lengths off the lead at that juncture, quite a closer’s profile. Horses prepped at 7 furlongs or longer account for 7 of the 9 wins, while Saratoga and Churchill have split dominance with 4 wins each as final prep locales. Awesome Road will vie for favoritism, but ran just 6 furlongs in his impressive debut win. Perhaps he’ll be vulnerable to more experienced closers. Generous Tipper intrigues off the pace for a Kenny McPeek barn that won this race 2 years ago with Rattle N Roll. Todd Pletcher looks for back-to-back wins here after Forte’s ’22 score when he sends out sharp Saratoga mile winner Locked. Pletcher also won this in 2014 with Carpe Diem.


10th Race
The featured $1 million Keeneland Turf Mile wraps the all-stakes pick 4, pick 5 and Keeneland Turf Pick Three. Favorites have lost this race the last 8 years and 9 of the last 10. The last 7 winners were 6-1 or more and we’ve averaged 12-1 in this race the past 7 years. Speed has struggled with just two half-mile leaders holding on in the 17-year database (average winner 3 lengths back at that point). Note 12 of 17 winners cut back in distance some from their most recent start. The profile would be to find a nice-priced closer who ran longer than a mile last out. Set Piece, the Arlington Million winner, should fit that bill. Expect the public to go all in on Master of the Seas, defending Turf Mile winner Annapolis and his Pletcher stablemate Up to the Mark. The latter is trying to come off a June layoff, but note the last 13 winners of this stakes had raced in August or September prior.


11th Race
Two-year-old maiden special weights sprint 6 furlongs on dirt in the finale, a split division of Race 2. The historical trends for Keeneland Fall Meet 2-year-old MSW dirt sprints is to follow the toteboard. Favorites are a strong 44%. Winners are evenly split among first-time starters and Churchill preppers with a massive gap to any other venue. This race is almost exclusively first-timers. Give extra credence if a rookie has a local Keeneland workout prior, such as Miyagi for Wayne Catalano. He’s by Not This Time, a strong local dirt sire to boot, as is fellow rookie Who’s the King. First-timer Nash is a Godolphin blueblood for Brad Cox you have to consider, by Medgalia d’Oro out of the sharp win-early and sprint mare Sara Louise.