Saturday 10/7/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Free play from High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Saturday: North Texas Mean Green + 6 1/2

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Free play from Tony Sacco

Tony Sacco's Free Play for Saturday
Kentucky Wildcats (NCAAF)

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ProSportsPicks

PSP's Data Driven 1* NCAAF Annihilator.
Free Play: Texas-5 -113

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the favorite. Texas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference. Oklahoma are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played in week 6.

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Jeff Alexander

1* NCAAF - Rutgers/Wisconsin FREE Pick on Rutgers +13.5

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Ray Monohan

Toledo -19

This Saturday's game is between the Toledo Rockets (4-1, 2-3 ATS) and the UMASS Minutemen (1-5, 2-4 ATS). It starts at 12:00 PM ET and takes place at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts. You can watch it on ESPNU.

Looking at the odds, Toledo is the favorite with -19.5 odds, and the total points expected in the game are 59. If you want to pick the winners, Toledo has -1346 ML odds, while UMASS has +771 odds as the dog.

UMASS lost 52-28 to Arkansas State in their last game, while Toledo won 35-33 against Northern Illinois. Toledo can put up points, they're averaging 40PPG in 2023, and they only allow 22PPG. A good recipe for success.

UMASS allows 39PPG, and hasn't been great with spreads, as they had a 5-7-0 ATS record last year and failed to win outright in any of the 10 games where they were listed as underdogs.

Toledo can run the ball, they can pass the ball, and they can also defend the run and defend the pass better than UMASS can. Don't overthink this one, and don't get me started on the turnovers surely to come.

Some trends to note, Toledo are 6-1 SU in their L7 games, and they're 5-0 SU in their L5 games against Massachusetts. UMASS are 0-6 ATS in their L6 games at home, are 1-4 ATS in their L5 games, and are 0-6 ATS in their L6 games at home.

I really don't think 19 points is too many if I'm being honest. I think this game will land somewhere around 33-35 to 10 (or less). At least that's where my trusty CFB super computer forecast puts it.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Saturday 5* FREE CFB ATS Play

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Alex Smart

Free Play: Missouri+4.5

Each of these offenses ranks in the Top 3 of the SEC in success rate, but the difference maker Im betting will be Missouri quarterback Brady Cook who has not thrown in interception in 347 pass attempts . He holds the SEC record for most pass attempts without an interception. After taking part in a 55-49 back and forth tilt last week for a OT loss vs Ole Miss. , Im betting LSU goes into immediate regression in a emotional letdown scenario. MISSOURI is 12-2 ATS in home games versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play. Drinkwitz is 9-1 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry as the coach of MISSOURI. Drinkwitz is 10-2 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game as the coach of MISSOURI.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 35-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MISSOURI) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 30-9 L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

CFB home team (MISSOURI) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are 36-6 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate.

Play on Missouri to cover

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Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on UCLA-3

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

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Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Texas A&M+120

No analysis provided.

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Mike Lundin

Mike's Alabama/Texas A&M CFB Free Pick

Both teams are coming at 4-1 on the season, with Alabama taking a 34-24 loss to Texas on Sept 9 and Texas A&M a 48-33 loss at Miami-Florida on the same day.

The Crimson Tide may not be the absolute powerhouse we are used to, but it's still a very talented team, and outside of the loss to Texas, the Alabama defense is giving up only nine points per game.

The Tide are 12-3 all-time against Texas A&M, and with Texas A&M's starting QB Conner Weigman sidelined for the rest of the year with a foot injury, I don't see the Aggies stealing this one either.

2* free pick on Alabama-130.

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John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Louisiana -2

Texas State has been a nice story this season getting off to a 4-1 start. But after losing on the road at UTSA, the schedule has been very soft the last three games with wins over Jackson State, Nevada and Southern Miss. Now the Bobcats face arguably their toughest game of the season on the road at Louisiana. The Rajin' Cajuns are 3-2 this season with both losses coming on the road by 7 at Old Dominion and by 11 at Minnesota. They were dominant in their three wins and have really good numbers on the season. Louisiana is averaging 454 yards per game and 7.0 per play on offense and allowing 337 yards per game and 5.0 per play on defense. Louisiana is 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS in its last 10 matchups with Texas State with all 10 wins coming by double-digits. The Rajin' Cajuns beat the Bobcats by 28 last year and by 45 in 2021. Give me Louisiana.

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Rob Vinciletti

Loaded Saturday card has the 2023 College TOTAL Of the YEAR and 5 Big Sides. There is also a massive 39-3 MLB Div. Series system up and more. Comp play below.

The Saturday Comp Play is on Ball. St plus the 2-3 points at 3:30 eastern. Ball St fits a powerful 49-13 System pertaining to Saturday conference road dogs from 2 to 7 that have revenge for a favored lost -8 or less and lost by 11 or less points and are off a loss today and the total is 42 or more ans the games is a week 5 or later match. The Cardinals have covered 4 of 5 here vs Eastern Michigan. The have played a tough schedule on the road vs Georgia and Kentucky.. Eastern Michigan has had trouble scoring 23 or less in 3 of 4 games. Look for Ball St to sere up some revenge. On Saturday font make a move until you jump on the 2023 College Football Total of the Year headlining another big CFB Card that has 5 big sides one from a 33-2 system. In MLB Action Rob has a 39-3 Divisional Series system and a Perfect totals system. Jump on NOW and put the Power of the most Exclusive data in the Industry on Your Side. For the Comp play. Take the points with Ball. St. Rob V-

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Arkansas State/Troy OVER 51.5

This Sun Belt showdown between Troy and Arkansas State has shootout written all over it Saturday. That has been the case in recent meetings as well with 57 or more combined points in eight of the last 10 head-to-head matchups, including 67 last season.

Troy boasts a very efficient passing attack with 270 passing yards per game and 7.9 yards per attempt. Veteran QB Gunnar Watson is having another solid season, completing 61.2% of his passes for 1,303 yards and a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio. RB Kimani Vidal has rushed for 590 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 5.7 per carry.

The Trojans are going to be able to name their number on this weak Arkansas State defense. The Red Wolves are allowing 36.4 points per game and 6.3 yards per play this season. They just gave up 37 to Southern Miss and 28 to UMass in their last two games coming in. Take out the 7 points allowed to woeful FCS Stony Brook, and the numbers look even worse for this defense.

But Arkansas State probably has its best offense of the Butch Jones era, largely due to the play of QB Jaylen Raynor, who has been an upgrade over an injured J.T. Shrout. Raynor is completing 67.3% of his passes with a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 189 yards on 5.3 per carry and two scores. He is the reason for their offensive explosions the last two weeks, putting up 44 points on Southern Miss and 52 more on UMass.

Butch Jones is 13-3 OVER in road games vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 yards per play or more as a head coach. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

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Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On Vanderbilt vs Florida over 50.5

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Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Tulsa+3

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Kenny Walker

Free Pick on Arizona State+4.5 -115