Saturday 11/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

TALKING HORSES AQUEDUCT
Saturday November 4, 2023
Acacia Clement
Race 1 7-1-3-2
Race 2 2-1A-3-4
Race 3 7-6-4-2
Race 4 2-3-5-4
Race 5 6-3-2-8
Race 6 9-8-5-3
Race 7 4-3-5-6
Race 8 2-6-4-3
Race 9 2-1-12-9
Race 10 8-5-12-3

[ConleyPicks]

Picks & Plays for Saturday, November 4

by David Aragona

AQUEDUCT
PICKS


Race 1: 7 - 1 - 2 - 1A - 3
Race 2: 5 - 1A - 4 - 3
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 6: 8 - 9 - 7 - 4
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 8: 2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 9: 9 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 10: 8 - 5 - 11 - 3
FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4
This is hardly the toughest N1X allowance event, as evidenced by the fact that Forced Ranking (#3)figures to be a short-priced favorite coming off victories against conditioned claiming and starter allowance foes. He obviously turned out to possess far more upside than his connections projected when they offered him for $25k off the long layoff at Saratoga. It was encouraging to see him follow up that performance with an improved effort last time, but now he’s moving up again. It’s fair to say this isn’t the strongest N1X race you’ll see on the NYRA circuit, but he still has some things to prove at what figures to be a short price. Let It Ride (#5) ran exceptionally well in his debut race at Gulfstream back in March. He was contesting an honest pace and fought on gamely to finish in a photo with subsequent stakes winner Scotland. He followed that up with an easy maiden score at Aqueduct before going to the sidelines. He’s now returning in a suitable spot, and George Weaver has decent statistics off layoffs on dirt. He just might have to deal with some other speed to his inside. My top pick is Lafitte’s Fleet (#4). This horse got into great form in early summer, winning a tough $40k claiming event before closing well for third behind the swift sprinter Durante in August. His last couple of results at this level have been disappointing, but he hasn’t encountered ideal situations on either occasion. He was never in position to make up ground two back at Saratoga on a day when speed fared well. Then last time, he again got too far back, and found himself in an awkward position trying to rally through traffic over a sloppy track. Now Rudy Rodriguez puts the blinkers back on, which figures to make him more focused. He had shown the ability to race more forwardly with blinkers last winter, and I think we could see him return to that style here. His best recent TimeformUS Speed Figures of 108 and 109 are the top numbers in this field.
Fair Value:
#4 LAFITTE'S FLEET, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6
The two most likely winners of this Atlantic Beach faced off in a maiden race back in September. Apollo Ten (#9) earned the victory that day after working out a great trip, stalking along the inside early before switching outside in upper stretch. This horse obviously took to turf, a surface that he is bred to prefer. He was subsequently entered in the Futurity Stakes, but scratched when it was rained off. It’s probably a positive that he’s now had more time between starts, and he’s the horse to beat. Yet I prefer the runner who finished just behind him. Irish Gent (#8) actually earned a higher TimeformUS Speed Figure – a flashy 111 – for his second-place finish due to the fact that he carved out some pretty quick fractions. He may have gotten a little too aggressive with the addition of blinkers, opening up on the field early before Apollo Ten reeled him in. Yet Irish Gent didn’t go down without a fight, and tried to battle back all the way to the wire. This colt had also run deceptively well on debut when racing on the wrong part of the Mellon turf course at Saratoga. I don’t care so much about his speed figure regression on dirt last time, but that and the fact that he has a lower profile rider named is likely drive up the price on a horse who seems every bit as talented as the favorite. The only other horse that I considered is Works for Me (#4). I’ve been waiting for this son of Daddy Long Legs to get a chance on turf. However, he’s catching a pair of tough rivals, and I wonder if he would prefer slightly softer company. He’s also a speed in a race where multiple horses want to be forward.
Fair Value:
#8 IRISH GENT, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 9
This Steward Manor shapes up as a wide open affair, where everyone has something to prove. I expect recent maiden winners such as Ever So Sweet (#12) and Rosie Jeeks (#8) to take money, but they’re both horses who want to control on the front end, and it feels like something has to give with so much speed signed on. Ever So Sweet beat a decent field last time and earned one of the highest TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field. She’s just drawn a tough post position for a horse with her running style. Rosie Jeeks might be more versatile than her debut suggests, but I don’t want to find out at a short price. Camila T (#5) is a wild card. She was dominant on debut, but was beating up on very weak competition. That race came up fast, but we still need some validation that she can compete at this level. I’m intrigued by both Christophe Clement trainees. His maiden Marco T. (#1) should not be overlooked. She faced a solid field on debut, and needed time off over the summer. She returned at Saratoga in September and closed decently to finish second to a male stablemate. She fits on figures and figures to get a good trip here. My top pick is Gram (#9). She hasn’t yet run as fast as some others, but I thought she ran deceptively well with some trouble in her second start. She was then visually impressive breaking her maiden at Saratoga, and subsequently held her own against a stakes field. Amidst Waves is a multiple stakes winner, and Gram was running on well late in a race that didn’t feature much pace. She’s going to get a better setup here, and I think stretching out to 6 furlongs will suit her.
Fair Value:
#9 GRAM, at 6-1 or greater
#1 MARCO T., at 8-1 or greater

RACE 10
The lightly raced He’s a Lucky Guy (#5) is immediately appealing in this finale since he’s had fewer chances than the rest and ran well in his only start at this level back in July. He followed that up with a good effort against open company maiden special weight foes at Colonial, but now Keri Brion is being realistic in dropping him in for a tag in his return to New York. He’s been entered here and stuck on the AE list since then, so he’s been ready to run for a while. I think he’s the horse to beat, but other contenders will be better prices. That might not be true of Joint Resolution (#3), who figures to attract support based on his maiden special weight effort from this meet last year. Yet I thought his performance back in May was pretty discouraging, as he came off the bridle early and never launched a rally. Others have comparable form at bigger prices, but they’ve also had more chances. Prince of Troy (#11) makes plenty of sense, but I think we saw his biggest character flaw last time when he hung at the Meadowlands after seemingly having a good opportunity to break his maiden. Some could put Tony O (#8) in the same category, but at least he’s never dropped in for a tag until now. A poor result last time probably prompted this drop in class, but he never had a fair chance that day. He got hung 3 to 4-wide around both turns while facing a field that may have been above par for the level. Prior to that, he had put forth plenty of competitive efforts, just not quite good enough to break through at that higher level. He’s going to get some pace to close into here, and I think we’ll see a better performance at what should be a square price.
Fair Value:
#8 TONY O, at 6-1 or greater

[ConleyPicks]

Aqueduct Tip Sheet - November 4

Nov. 03, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 71% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:40 AM ET
BEST BET: #3 SLAMMIN GOLD
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	3	Slammin Gold	K Carmouche
PLACE	8-5	1A	Apollo Code	M Olver
SHOW	5-2	5	Price Is Truth	M Franco
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Malibu Margarita	R Silvera
ALTERNATE 1	8-5	1	Collected Special	I Castillo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Liberty Central	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #2 $12,500 CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:12 PM ET
BEST BET: #1A DONTBELATE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	1A	Dontbelate	O Hernandez Moreno
PLACE	7-2	2	Goldini	L J Luzzi
SHOW	9-2	3	Grumps Little Tots	E Greenidge
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Lord Gatling	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Hang Tight	L R Rivera Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	9-5	1	Jumpster	R Silvera
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #3 $14,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Just a Nyquist	M Olver
PLACE	3-1	6	Luna Loca	L R Rivera Jr.
SHOW	9-5	4	Accel Rose	M Franco
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Angelas Party Girl	J Rendon
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Simple Sugar	J A Davis
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Sweet as Sugar	R R Maragh
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #4 $90,000 ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	3	Forced Ranking	M Franco
PLACE	2-1	5	Let It Ride	E Cancel
SHOW	9-2	4	Lafittes Fleet	L R Rivera Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Just Call Ray	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	1	Bezos	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Register	K Davis
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
RACE #5 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	16	Waskesiu	Rider TBA
PLACE	15-1	11	Just Music	J A Gomez
SHOW	5-1	10	Z Train	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Dynamic Pricing	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Just Jules	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Hollywood Dream	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 16-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 10/11/16 BOX, 2/10/11 BOX
RACE #6 $120,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	9	Apollo Ten	M Franco
PLACE	6-1	11	Perliano	M Franco
SHOW	12-1	6	Woke Up Quick	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Split Strike	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Works for Me	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Jimmythetooth	R Silvera
* EXACTA: 9-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/9/11 BOX, 5/6/11 BOX
RACE #7 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	3	Hunt Ball	I Castillo
PLACE	9-2	1	Change of Command	L R Rivera Jr.
SHOW	7-2	5	Sierra Leone	M Franco
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Ridgewood Runner	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Tuscan Gold	F Lynch
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	4	Ignite the Light	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #8 $80,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:02 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 MAKERS CANDY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Makers Candy	M Franco
PLACE	3-1	2	Thrill of It	J A Gomez
SHOW	9-2	4	Colloquy	T McCarthy
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Prince of Pharoahs	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Mason Mania	R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Wild Banker	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #9 $120,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:42 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	12	Ever So Sweet	K Carmouche
PLACE	3-1	13	Caress	M Franco
SHOW	9-2	8	Rosie Jeeks	F Lynch
WILD CARD	10-1	7	Independenceavenue	V R Carrasco
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	1	Marco T.	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	5	Camila T	C Olivero
* EXACTA: 12-13 BOX, 13-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/12/13 BOX, 7/8/13 BOX
RACE #10 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:17 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	3	Joint Resolution	D Davis
PLACE	6-1	12	Atlantas Acuna	K Carmouche
SHOW	5-2	13	Aula	R Silvera
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Hes a Lucky Guy	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Barry the Builder	R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	14	Chulligan	Rider TBA
* EXACTA: 3-12 BOX, 12-13 BOX, 13-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/12/13 BOX, 5/12/13 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 4

Nov. 03, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $30,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	1	Whats to Do	J Talamo
PLACE	5-2	2	Steel Racer	J R Leparoux
SHOW	7-2	3	Beautiful and Bold	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Byzantine	L Machado
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Miss Tappy Tone	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Fast Gal	J K Court
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #2 $52,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-1	4	Like a Saltshaker	C A Emigh
PLACE	2-1	1	All West	M Murrill
SHOW	5-1	3	Shackleford Strong	C A Torres
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Junior Bug	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Spend Benjamins	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Sand Mountain	C Hughes
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #3 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:17 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 AUNT JO
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	1	Aunt Jo	C A Torres
PLACE	6-1	3	Valiant Praise	R Gutierrez
SHOW	5-2	7	The Princess Says	M Murrill
WILD CARD	3-1	8	Shesasmalltowngirl	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	4	Islandinthestream	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Lil Town Sis	G Ashton
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/7 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX
RACE #4 $50,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	1	Love of My Heart	J Graham
PLACE	3-1	4	Lets Be Clear	M Murrill
SHOW	9-2	7	Pipeline Girl	E Morales
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Honey Run	Y Navas
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Zing	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Founders Day	C J Lanerie
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Pinfire	F Arrieta
PLACE	3-1	4	Tasterfor the King	W A Rodriguez
SHOW	7-2	8	Cuore Sacro	J Graham
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Shefflin	J E Felix
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Whiskey and Easy	A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	Be There	C A Torres
* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/8 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX
RACE #6 $56,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 JRS GIFT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	4	Jrs Gift	T Canuto
PLACE	2-1	6	Desert Wolf	C A Torres
SHOW	10-1	3	Washingtons Union	A Achard
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Timely Prospect	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	8	Carnivore	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Weslan	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #7 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	6	Left Tackle	C Landeros
PLACE	10-1	5	Penrod	J R Leparoux
SHOW	7-2	1	Give Me a Reason	K J Asmussen
WILD CARD	5-1	8	McQueen	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	3	Knightsbridge	J Graham
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Poker Run	M Garcia
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX
RACE #8 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	14	Best Performer	C A Torres
PLACE	5-1	7	Wings Like Eagles	A Achard
SHOW	7-2	12	Be My Sunshine	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Whenthedawnbreaks	C A Torres
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	11	Make the Boys Wink	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Pretty Provocative	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 14-7 BOX, 7-12 BOX, 12-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/12/14 BOX, 6/7/12 BOX
RACE #9 $141,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Giant Game	M Garcia
PLACE	6-1	5	Gasoline	C A Torres
SHOW	5-1	3	War Campaign	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Big Blue Line	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	7	Koolhaus	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	8	Warrior Johny	J R Leparoux
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	8	Bango	M Pedroza Jr.
PLACE	6-1	7	Miles Ahead	J Talamo
SHOW	5-2	1	Tejano Twist	C Landeros
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Necker Island	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Sir Alfred James	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Manny Wah	C J Lanerie
* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
RACE #11 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:37 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 EDGARTOWN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	7	Edgartown	C A Torres
PLACE	5-2	16	St. Armands Key	C A Torres
SHOW	6-1	12	Dashman	M Murrill
WILD CARD	6-1	2	The Look Factor	J D Ramos
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Polar Bear Plunge	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Sharons Prince	F De La Cruz
* EXACTA: 7-16 BOX, 16-12 BOX, 12-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/12/16 BOX, 2/12/16 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - November 4

Nov. 03, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $250,000 STAKES 1 5/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $250,000 TBRED AFTERCARE ALLIANCE STAKES GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	3	Siskany	W Buick
PLACE	5-1	6	Kiss Today Goodbye	V Espinoza
SHOW	8-1	4	Win the Day	A Fresu
WILD CARD	5-2	5	Salesman	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Time for Trouble	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Serifos	F Geroux
* EXACTA: 3,6/3,4,5,6
* TRIFECTA: 3/4,5,6/1,2,4,5,6
COMMENTS: SISKANYs lone race in the US was a dominating Grade II win in the Belmont God Cup with the top speed figure achieved by these horses. KISS TODAY GOODBYE could be the pacesetter with modest fractions in a field of closers. WIN THE DAYs race internals were better from start to finish in his last which usually points to another good effort. SALESMAN might really benefit from running the longest race of his career.
RACE #2 $250,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $250,000 TWILIGHT DERBY GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	7	Seal Team	U Rispoli
PLACE	3-1	6	Webslinger	J Castellano
SHOW	8-1	3	Reincarnate	L Saez
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Almendares	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	12	Silver Knott	W Buick
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	Maltese Falcon	J J Hernandez
* EXACTA: 3,6,7,8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,6,7/3,6,7/3,6,7,8,12
COMMENTS: SEAL TEAM increased his output from start to finish in his last race which usually points to another solid outing. WEBSLINGER tends to run well fresh off the bench like today. A bullet work in his last says the trend continues. REINCARNATE will likely step forward in his second start off the sideline. He is most dangerous on the lead. ALMENDARES finished in the money in six of seven starts and has excellent turf breeding, tops in the field.
RACE #3 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BIG ASS FANS BC DIRT MILE GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Codys Wish	J Alvarado
PLACE	8-1	9	National Treasure	F Prat
SHOW	6-1	7	Algiers	J Doyle
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Zozos	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Charge It	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Stage Raider	B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 3,9/3,4,6,9
* TRIFECTA: 3,9/3,4,6,9/3,4,6,9
COMMENTS: CODYS WISH finished in the money in 15 of 15 races and is a neck and a lost footing at the start from winning 10 in a row. NATIONAL TREASURE has some of his best workouts prepping for this race. SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING tends to run his best after some rest and time in the barn, like today. ZOZOS could run one of his best races in the third start after a layoff as the third up tends to be his best in cycle.
RACE #4 $2,000,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 3:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC FILLY & MARE TURF GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	9	Didia	V Cheminaud
PLACE	3-1	2	Warm Heart	R L Moore
SHOW	5-2	6	Inspiral	L Dettori
WILD CARD	4-1	1	In Italian	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Fev Rover	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	3	With The Moonlight	W Buick
* EXACTA: 1,2,6,9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,2,6,9/2,6,9/1,2,3,6,8,9
COMMENTS: There are 12 horses in this race and you can make a case for at least 10 of them. DIDIA has as good a chance as any and has three wins with a second by less than a length at the distance. WARM HEART won her last two, both of which were Group 1s in Europe. INSPIRAL raced in nine consecutive Group 1s in Europe, winning five. IN ITALIAN will try to go wire to wire and only has one other early burner to her outside, advantage IN ITALIAN.
RACE #5 $1,000,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC FILLY & MARE SPRINT GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	1	Goodnight Olive	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	10-1	3	Eda	J J Hernandez
SHOW	5-2	7	Society	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	15-1	6	Meikei Yell	K Ikezoe
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Clearly Unhinged	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	4	Matareya	F Prat
* EXACTA: 1/3,6,7 KEY BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,3/1,3,6,7/1,2,3,4,6,7
COMMENTS: GOODNIGHT OLIVE will be sharp again if her most recent workout is any indication. It was her fastest published 4 furlong work. EDA has some blazing fast works between races, should be out front and play catch me if you can. SOCIETY has three wins and a third at the tweener 7 furlong distance. She wins wire to wire and might struggle to get the lead here. MEIKEI YELL could pull off the upset in her second start after a layoff. The Japanese come to win.
RACE #6 $2,000,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC MILE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	11	Kelina	M Guyon
PLACE	5-2	10	Songline	K Tosaki
SHOW	7-2	14	Master of The Seas	W Buick
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Mawj	O Murphy
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	12	Exaulted	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Casa Creed	L Saez
* EXACTA: 6,10,11,14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 10,11,14/10,11,14/3,6,10,11,12,14
COMMENTS: KELINA won a Group 1 in France in her last race and tends to run well in bunches. SONGLINE missed as the even money favorite in her last. She came back to win a Group 1 the last time she missed as the top choice. MASTER OF THE SEAS is older and the best male horse versus top notch females. That might be too much for the others to overcome. MAWJ made a high level mid move in her first US race, taking a Grade I at Keeneland. Expect more in the second US start.
RACE #7 $2,000,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC DISTAFF GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Adare Manor	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-2	4	Idiomatic	F Geroux
SHOW	5-1	6	Search Results	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Randomized	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	2	A Mo Reay	C Lemaire
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	9	Clairiere	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 4,5/2,4,5,6,8,9
* TRIFECTA: 4,5,6,8/4,5/2,4,5,6,8,9
COMMENTS: ADARE MANOR is a second place away from being undefeated in six 2023 starts. IDIOMATIC is unbeaten in two races at the distance and should have plenty in the tank following a pair of easy wins. SEARCH RESULTS finished in the money in 15 of 16 races. The lone miss came in this race last year. Maybe she did not like Keeneland. RANDOMIZED tends to make an explosive mid move and then follows it with high level late pace.
RACE #8 $4,000,000 STAKES 1 1/2 MILES ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 5:50 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $4M BC TURF GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	8	Up to the Mark	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-2	9	Mostahdaf	J Crowley
SHOW	3-1	5	Auguste Rodin	R L Moore
WILD CARD	12-1	13	War Like Goddess	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	11	King of Steel	L Dettori
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Shahryar	C Demuro
* EXACTA: 5,8,9/5,8,9,11,13
* TRIFECTA: 5,8,9/5,8,9/1,5,8,9,11,13
COMMENTS: UP TO THE MARK would be very difficult to beat if he can run back two races to his Grade I Manhattan Stakes win. MOSTAHDAF won 10 of 16 races with a couple of seconds including four Group 1 wins in his last six starts. AUGUSTE RODIN has been well bet in all his races and should be rolling at the end. WAR LIKE GODDESS has nine high quality starts in her last 10 outings.
RACE #9 $6,000,000 STAKES 1 1/4 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $6M BC CLASSIC
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	8	Ushba Tesoro	Y Kawada
PLACE	3-1	12	Arabian Knight	F Prat
SHOW	20-1	7	Clapton	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	12-1	2	Zandon	L Dettori
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	3	White Abarrio	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	13	Proxy	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 2,6,8,12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2,6,8,12/6,8,12/2,3,6,8,12,13
COMMENTS: USHBA TESORO is making his second start after a layoff and won both of his last second up efforts with ease. ARABIAN KNIGHT and SAUDI CROWN will both go forward in a race that is loaded with horses that like to be middle and back. If they do not burn each other, they could go one two all the way around. ZANDON finished in the money in 11 of 11 on a fast track and runs good races.
RACE #10 $1,000,000 STAKES 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC TURF SPRINT GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	3	Caravel	T Gaffalione
PLACE	12-1	9	Roses for Debra	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	6-1	12	Arzak	L Saez
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Live In The Dream	S Kirrane
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	13	One Timer	E T Baird
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Nobals	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 3,5,9,12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3,5,9,12/3,9,12/3,5,7,9,12,13
COMMENTS: CARAVEL ran better pace numbers from start to finish in his last race with some of his fastest fractions. ROSES FOR DEBRA has four wins and a third in five races on grass. The third was in a yielding course so maybe she did not like the footing. ARZAK won two in a row and blasted through the first half mile in his last, the Garde II Woodford. LIVE IN THE DREAM ran crazy fast fraction in his first US race. Cutting back in distance should help here.
RACE #11 $2,000,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:00 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC SPRINT GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	6	The Chosen Vron	H I Berrios
PLACE	5-1	2	Dr. Schivel	J J Hernandez
SHOW	9-5	8	Elite Power	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	9	Gunite	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	7	Speed Boat Beach	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Nakatomi	L Saez
* EXACTA: 2,6,8,9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2,6,8,9/2,6,8/1,2,6,7,8,9
COMMENTS: THE CHOSEN VRON is unbeaten in three at the distance and the two at Santa Anita were not close. DR. SCHIVEL has performed well at Santa Anita with four wins and a third in six efforts including his fastest fractions last out. ELITE POWER is making his first start since last August. He won his last four starts after some time in the barn. GUNITE should be close to the front all the way around the track and that is where he wants to be.
RACE #12 $100,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 8:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 GEM MINE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Gem Mine	L Dettori
PLACE	5-1	3	Irish Patsy	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	6-1	8	Real Fire	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	6-1	15	Shes Bulletproof	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	10	Madiha	V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	11	Lunar Impact	O Murphy
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-15 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 3/8/15 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: NBA Boston -9.5 over Brooklyn

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Free play from Totals4U

Early Saturday Free Selection: Arizona State Sun Devils/Utah Utes under 39 1/2

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Free play from #1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Play: Air Force Falcons - 17 1/2

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Free play from Easy Money Sports

Free Early Saturday Football Selection From Lee
NEBRASKA -3

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Free play from Hawkeye Sports

Early Saturday's Free Pick: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets + 1 1/2

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Free play from High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Saturday: James Madison Dukes - 6 1/2

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Free play from Tony Sacco

Tony Sacco's Free Play for Saturday
The BYU COUGARS (NCAAF)

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Free play from Tim Donaghy

Free Play for Saturday is on the CHICAGO BULLS/DENVER NUGGETS OVER

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Free play from Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, November 4, 2023
CFB
11/04 04:30 PM PT / 7:30 PM ET
CF (371) WASHINGTON VS (372) USC
Take: OVER
Reason: Huge PAC 12 contest here today as #5 Washington travels to LA to take on #20 USC. The Huskies are a perfect 8-0 and looking to get into the playoff picture while USC is 7-2 and hopes to play spoiler here today. Two of the best QB's in college will matchup with Washington Michael Penix Jr taking on USC QB Caleb Williams. The Huskies coming off a win at Stanford last time out, 42-33, but didn't come close to covering the 27.5-point spread. USC had to come from behind last week to eek out a win at Cal, 50-49. Right now Huskies' QB Penix Jr leads the nation in passing and is the odds on favorite to win the Heisman. Williams is second in passing and will be considered in the Heisman voting. Both these teams have great offenses led by future NFL QB's. I don't expect either defense to stop the other's offense. This looks to be another great offensive showing. Your free play is on the OVER.

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Free play from Roz Wins

ROZ FREE Selection SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2023
CFB
340. App State -3 (3 PT / 6 ET)