Saturday 11/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Sean Murphy

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Alabama minus the points over LSU at 7:45 pm et on Saturday.

Alabama may enter this game sporting the better record but bettors are eager to back LSU in an underdog role after the Tigers stunned the Crimson Tide 32-31 as nearly two-touchdown underdogs in last year's matchup. I look for the revenge-minded Crimson Tide to turn in one of their best games of the season on Saturday after fumbling in a previous primetime showdown against Texas here in Tuscaloosa back in early September (they lost that game 34-24 as seven-point favorites). Note that LSU checks in a woeful 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games following three or more consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. The underdog has won ATS in two straight matchups in this series - the longest such streak since 2010-11. We haven't seen the underdog cash in three straight meetings since 1998-2001 when it enjoyed a four-game winning streak. Take Alabama.

[ConleyPicks]

Vic Duke

LSU/Alabama 7:45: Both teams had the week off to rest and prepare. Alabama, however, seems to have the edge here. The Crimson Tide seeking to avenge last year's 32-31 OT loss. LSU's Jayden Daniels was instrumental in guiding the Tigers to the win. He's back and doing great, but Tigers lost 10 guys from that winning team to the NFL this season; in addition, Tigers won't have injured run stopping beast Wingo nor will they have their three top defensive backs - all injured. Kelly will have to start the talented but young freshman recruits. LSU defense already leaves much to be desired (give up 6.1 yards per play -109th in nation). Remember, winning teams - Fla State, Ole Miss and Missouri dropped 45, 55 and 39, respectively on them. Even subpar SEC Arkansas put up 31 vs them. Alabama defense much better. And Alabama QB Milroe getting better each game. He's surrounded by talent from back-to-back Top 2 recruiting classes. Saban a sweet 6-1 ATS as a slight favorite off a win following a bye-week. Alabama-3 -105 the call.

[ConleyPicks]

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on Alabama-155

This looks like a buy low spot for Bama, and a sell high spot for LSU. The Tigers have won six of their last seven, and they have scored 40+ points in five of those games. Their only win against a Top 25 team came on the road at Missouri, and that was a lot closer than the final score would indicate. The Tigers trailed with five minutes to go in the game, scored late to go ahead, and then sealed it with a pick-six that made a close game look like a blowout. The Tigers have a handful of injuries in the secondary that could cost them here against an Alabama offense more than capable of putting together big plays in the passing game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

[ConleyPicks]

Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Rockets+130

No analysis provided.

[ConleyPicks]

Jimmy Boyd

1* Free Pick on Celtics-9

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

[ConleyPicks]

Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Boise State +3

The Boise State Broncos want revenge from a 28-16 loss to Fresno State in the MWC Championship Game last year. They out-played the Bulldogs in that game but were -2 in turnovers. They held the Bulldogs to just 256 total yards and outgained them by 65 yards.

The Broncos are undervalued right now due to a 4-4 record. They have had some tough luck in close games with three losses by 1, 2 and 3 points. They easily could be 7-1 right now, which is what Fresno State sits at currently. Their lone loss by more than 3 points came to Washington in the opener, and Washington remains unbeaten.

The Bulldogs have had some good luck in close games with four wins by a single score, going 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. I think the fact that the Bulldogs have a 7-1 record while the Broncos sit at 4-4 has this line inflated. I believe Boise State is the better team this season and should be favored here.

Boise State has some recent performances that have aged nicely. They beat San Jose State 35-27 at home and racked up 491 total yards in that win. San Jose State has been dominant against everyone else of late. The Broncos were last seen crushing Wyoming 32-7 at home. They held the Cowboys to just 112 total yards and outgained them by 331 yards in a dominant victory.

Fresno State lost 24-19 at Wyoming three games back to give them a common opponent. The Bulldogs then beat Utah State 37-32 in a game they probably didn't deserve to win. They gave up 568 total yards to the Aggies and were outgained by 97 yards. Then last week they beat UNLV 31-24 despite giving up 424 total yards and getting outgained by 112 yards. The difference was being +2 in turnovers in both of those games.

Fresno State QB Mikey Keene returned from injury against UNLV last week. I cashed on UNLV +7.5 in that game so was watching it very closely, and Keene was hobbling around in the 4th quarter and doesn't look anywhere near 100%. I can't see him being 100% a week later after it looked like he re-injured himself against UNLV. A poor Rebels defense held the Bulldogs to just 312 total yards in that contest.

There has been a big difference in strength of schedule between these two teams as well. Boise State has played the 63rd-toughest schedule in the country while Fresno State has played the 110th. This is a big step up in class for the Bulldogs against a team that's simply going to want it more Saturday night.

Boise State is 34-18 ATS in its last 52 games as an underdog. The Broncos are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games as road dogs of 7 points or less. Wrong team favored here. Bet Boise State Saturday.