Saturday 11/11/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Century Mile

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 10
7	7	HANDSOME DAN	4/1	Campbell, J Brandon - 24	404.06
1	1	THOUGHTS OF A FOOL	2/1	Gagne, Jean Francois - 16	398.54
3	3	STAYTHIRSTY DE VIE	10/1	Sobey, Nathan K - 17	385.11
2	2	UP YER KILT	5/2	Hennessy, Michael R - 17	376.25
4	4	PONDER NO LONGER	10/1	Kelly, David A - 19	370.16
5	5	THE DICKENS	6/1	Giesbrecht, Philip - 11	365.09
8	8	JUS CHED	8/1	Gillis, Logan - 7	341.78
6	6	OUTLAW WITFIT	12/1	Gray, Jamie D - 7	325.49

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Post: 7:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$10500 - NON-WINNERS $6,000 LAST 5 STARTS NON-WINNERS LAST 3 ALLOWED $500 AE: NON-WINNERS 7 EXT. P-M RACES OR $70,000 LIFE

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 AMERICAN REBEL 7/2
# 4 OCEAN COLONY 10/1
# 1 LETSGOTOBRAZIL A 8/1

Look no further than AMERICAN REBEL as the bet here. Overall figures appear good. Can't throw out at this point. Is a very promising choice given the 82 speed rating from his most recent gathering. Tough to pass on this gelding with experienced Devaux in the cart. Major player for the top prize. OCEAN COLONY - Might be there at a nice price tag. Most definitely one to keep in your exotics. LETSGOTOBRAZIL A - Can't overlook based on TrackMaster SRs which have been terrific (84 avg) these days. The 1 hole is on fire here at Saratoga Harness. More wins than you would expect.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine Mohawk Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Post: 8:52 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 90 - Purse:$18000 - NW $8,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $19,850 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: N/A $2,025 P/S IN 2022-23.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 7 WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH 2/1
# 5 RESPECT OUR FLAG 5/1
# 10 UNCLE SHANK A 6/1

WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH gets the edge as our best wagering option in this outing. This solid standardbred looks strong. Check out the 93 average speed rating. Seems to have a great class advantage based on the standardbreds he has faced. Deserves a shot given the positive win percentage he sports. RESPECT OUR FLAG - When starting from the 5 hole, a much better than average win percentage has resulted. Is a substantial choice given the 90 TrackMaster speed fig from his most recent contest. UNCLE SHANK A - Deserves a shot given the successful win clip he sports. The wagering panel gives this contender a nice chance to win this one, class numbers are tops in the field of starters.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Hoosier Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 11
5	5	FLAGMAN	3/1	Plano, Rick - 14	648.65
6	6	BROOKVIEW BOLT	5/2	Tetrick, Trace - 21	618.80
1	1	DOVER IN MOTION	8/1	Macomber, Ricky Jr - 10	612.98
3	3	LATE NITE HAWK	12/1	Wilfong, Kyle - 11	605.37
2	2	JUSMAKINYALOOK	4/1	Ross, Jordan - 10	599.31
4	4	TOY'S FOR YOU	5/1	Putnam, Joey - 10	575.02
7	7	RENEGADE GYPSY	9/2	Oosting, Michael - 12	518.38

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 6
2	2	TALKING TOM	3/1	Long, Chris - 10	519.47
4	4	CENTURY ENDEAVOR	7/2	Beckwith, Brett - 16	517.69
7	7	SEVENTH SECRET	8/1	Devaux, Jim - 19	512.20
1	1	SIX DEGREES	10/1	Cushing, Mitchell - 10	510.52
3	3	ADDISON HANOVER	5/2	Dobson, Billy - 14	509.05
5	5	UNCLE JORD A	12/1	Gray, Shawn T - 20	503.20
6	6	AHI SUNSHINE	5/1	Athearn, Matthew - 10	491.81

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Post: 6:59 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 45 - Purse:$5200 - FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES OR 10,000 LIFETIME

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 CENALTA TOKEN 6/1
# 3 WESTWARD ANGELS 12/1
# 6 SWEET CAROLINEEMMA 5/2

CENALTA TOKEN will have you running to the cashier's window in here. Good for a win bet just off the outstanding prior class statistics. Have to like this solid standardbred. With this driver/trainer hooking up, players often make some green stuff. ROI is great with this team. Recent figures for the driver - 26 percent win - make this filly a top pick in the race. WESTWARD ANGELS - When the trainer Chappell puts Campbell up for the drive very nice things happen. All you need to do is look at the 25 win percent. Campbell is racking up the wins of late. Outstanding win stat makes this horse our contender. SWEET CAROLINEEMMA - Could be considered today if only for the formidable speed figure achieved in the last race. Filly and trainer go together like a hand in a glove. They finish in the money 60 percent of their races.

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[ConleyPicks]

BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

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Del Mar - Race #3

#8 Pink Whitney	She has room to bounce back while dropping out of Grade II company, and her previous turf form was serviceable enough to think it might be enough with this modest group.
#9 Ennereilly	She tracked the pace but came up empty when the serious finishing got underway, but she is probably capable of something better than that here. Not impossible.
#5 Ellie Moore	She was way overbet in her only local try, but she makes a bit of sense against an underwhelming bunch if she has any upside around two turns.
Race Summary	Pink Whitney might offer a midrange price while dropping and getting back to the turf, and her mild finishing efforts here earlier this year might keep her in the frame.

Del Mar - Race #7

#2 Nadette	She has the occasional sharp finishing race that would be competitive with these, and there are a couple of pretty tough customers scattered about her company lines.
#1 Linda's Gift	She's another who might offer an OK price with some running lines that fit here, but she's a bit of a question on class while meeting a handful of players who have been pretty nice Grade III or borderline Grade II types.
#5 Zolce Del	She's back off the long break after last trying Grade I company, and while her baseline effort makes her a player in here, I'm not totally sold that her price is going to be equal to the risk today.
Race Summary	Nadette wasn't too far off a couple of decent groups in her running lines from last year, and I'm hoping she'll be able to fire fresh, even if the stretch goal is probably something a bit bigger over the winter at Santa Anita.

Del Mar - Race #8

#6 Oviatt Class	There are several horses in here whose running lines typically have them tracking the pace before giving away ground in the lane, and that might set things up nicely for a finisher. This guy can stay on the screen while relaxing off the splits.
#8 Mucino	Think he might be one of the more likely winners here with a perfect trip likely waiting for him, and his ability to keep plugging away might get him past the leaders late.
#2 Will Be	He's a really high-ceiling threat while getting around two turns -- if he transfers something like the two-back run to this route trip, he might handle these without a problem. What kind of price to find out?
Race Summary	Oviatt Class has remained fairly ordinary for a horse at this level after briefly becoming a known name for anyone who handicapped the 2021 Breeders' Cup, but his last showed some tiny signs of life, and I wonder if he can move forward today to take advantage of a favorable race flow?

[ConleyPicks]

FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

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Laurel Park - Race #3

#8 DR. DOYLE (9-2)	Classy 6-year-old ran into traffic jam in shorter sprint, good value play.
#2 HORN OF PLENTY (5-2)	Out of town numbers translate well in this spot.
#1 ROYAL SPY (4-1)	Finished second in his last three short sprints on the main track.
Race Summary	DR. DOYLE was shut off at the eighth pole while rallying between rivals, at the same time the winning favorite was beginning to edge clear. He goes an extra half-furlong from the outside post in his second start after six months away. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#8 ROANAN GODDESS (5-1)	Appears rounding to another big race in her stakes debut.
#1 CAP CLASSIQUE (3-1)	Sat good trip and romped against ‘Roanan’ in first try on main track.
#9 DEBOISBLANC (9-5)	#9 DEBOISBLANC (9-5) – Cox shipper bounced back from dull stakes try with allowance romp.
Race Summary	ROANAN GODDESS awaited room at the quarter pole, found it on the rail and powered away from the co-favorite in a manner that suggests she is ready for her first stakes try. She recovered well from a stumbled start in her debut but was no match for favored CAP CLASSIQUE, who draws the rail for the rematch. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #9

#2 PAYNTER’S PRODIGY (3-	Hoping to follow the lead of his sire, a first-out winner and millionaire.
#6 DATS DATS DATS (12-1)	No fire as first-time gelding, never count this barn out with 2-year-olds.
#3 SUGAR HOOF (8-5)	Blew clear stretch lead at 1M, ran second as lone entrant to run well in route.
Race Summary	PAYNTER’S PRODIGY, the son of Grade 1-winning router and Belmont Stakes runner-up Paynter, shows a 10-week workout gap leading up to a one-mile breeze at Laurel last Saturday. Trainer Gary Capuano excels with 2-year-olds so give Paynter’s Prodigy the nod with a win and place bet.

[ConleyPicks]

TALKING HORSES
Saturday November 11, 2023
AQUEDUCT

Acacia Clement
Race 1 1-6-8-4
Race 2 3-2-8-5
Race 3 2-4-1-6
Race 4 1-9-4-2
Race 5 9-8-6-2
Race 6 8-2-6-5
Race 7 1-4-6-9
Race 8 6-1A-7-4
Race 9 5-8-4-7
Race 10 8-7-9-6

Andy Serling
Race 1 5 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 2 2 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 3 4 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 4 1 - 2 - 9 - 4
Race 5 6 - 5 - 8 - 9
Race 6 8 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 7 1 - 8 - 4 - 9
Race 8 6 - 1/1A - 7 - 4
Race 9 7 - 8 - 13 - 5
Race 10 8 - 5 - 7 - 9

[ConleyPicks]

Picks & Plays for Saturday, November 11 AQUEDUCT

by David Aragona
PICKS

Race 1: 4 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 2: 2 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 9 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 9 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 6: 8 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 7: 4 - 8 - 1 - 9
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 9: 7 - 13 - 8 - 12
Race 10: 9 - 7 - 8 - 2
FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 5
Everyone horse in the main body of this field will be trying the turf for the first time. Enlighten (#2) figures to garner the most support off his dirt form, and he does have some pedigree for grass. However, horses like this tend to get bet for the wrong reasons, and you can find better value elsewhere. Among those switching surfaces, Unique Insight (#6) offers some appeal. Despite being a son of Gun Runner, who isn’t really known as a turf sire, his dam was a stakes winner on grass. He seems like one who might have needed his debut race going a mile on dirt, and I expect a better effort this time. I just wonder if he’ll be much of a price with Irad Ortiz riding. Perhaps the most interesting of the first time turfers is Hamilton’s Way (#5), who has caught some tough fields in his three prior dirt attempts. He wasn’t competitive in any of those races, but has at least earned speed figures that show he has some ability. He really has more of a turf pedigree, being by solid influence Constitution out of a dam who was a 2-time turf winner and was multiple stakes-placed on that surface. Ray Handal doesn’t have the greatest stats with this move, but the horse figures to be a fair price and picks up Joel Rosario. There are also some first time starters to consider. Cugino (#8) has one of the most convincing turf pedigrees in the field, being by versatile sire Twirling Candy out of a dam who raced exclusively on turf and was a multiple stakes winner. She’s produced two foals, both of which are turf specialists, topped by G3-placed turfer Battle of Normandy. My top pick is another firster who might get somewhat overlooked. Urge to Merge (#9) was acquired for $115k at Tattersalls. His sire Mehmas is best known in the U.S. for producing G1-winning miler Chez Pierre and multiple graded turf stakes winner Going Global. The dam never won on turf, but she’s produced 8 winners from as many foals to race, mostly overseas, 7 of which are turf winners. The best of those is multiple British handicap-winning turf sprinter Capote’s Dream. Horacio De Paz is 1 for 2 with first time starters in turf routes, the winner being future stakes winner Be Your Best at 8-1.
Fair Value:
#9 URGE TO MERGE, at 6-1 or greater
#5 HAMILTON'S WAY, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 6
I’m not trying to beat Rhiannon (#8) as she makes her stakes debut in this Pebbles. She was highly touted prior to her debut on dirt at Saratoga, but failed to handle the muddy surface that day. She has much more of a turf pedigree on the dam’s side, and she clearly took that surface last time when switched over. She showed improved tactical speed and always traveled like the winner, easily blowing past the pacemaker at the quarter pole before opening up late with impressive strides. She earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which makes her one of the fastest horses in this field. That number stands up to scrutiny, as the third-place finisher from that race returned to finish second last week, improving her number by 6 points. She has the tactical speed and versatility to work out the right trip, and she might be a better price than she otherwise would be for this barn with Kendrick Carmouche retaining the mount. Her main rival from a class standpoint is Sacred Wish (#6), who won the Winter Memories over this course and distance in her turf debut two back. She got a perfect trip to win that day, but wasn’t as fortunate last time when getting squeezed back in the early stages before making a belated rally at Keeneland. She makes some sense, but I think others have a bit more upside. Another Chad Brown runner also exits a maiden victory. Startup Mentality (#7) was pretty impressive winning her debut at Monmouth back in July. She did get pace to close into, but still made an eye-catching move from last to first in the final three-eighths of a mile. She’s supposed to get some pace to close into here, and she should be charging late if she’s ready for the class hike off a layoff. Plentitude (#2) also returns from a layoff with something to prove. She’s never gone this far, having sprinted in her three prior starts. I thought she was game to earn the victory over a solid allowance field two back, and last time she just got run off her feet in the Blue Sparkler after chasing wide on the turn. She’s bred to go longer as a half-sister to Pilgrim winner Agate Road and dirt router Gasoline. This is a tough spot, but she could potentially work her way into the exotics at a price.
Fair Value:
#8 RHIANNON, at 8-5 or greater

RACE 8
I’ll be interested to see how short a price My Harbors Dream (#6) turns out to be. He just seems like a logical fit in this optional claimer as he makes his first start off the claim for Rick Dutrow. This horse proved to be a great $10k claim for David Jacobson, improving to win three allowance or starter races for the new barn. He was an impressive winner at Delaware two back before running a game race at this level upon his return to New York last time. He had to be hard-used early to chase the leader, ultimately setting it up for winner Spun and Won to pick them both up in the late stages. That 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him the horse to beat. He’s also drawn well outside in a race that doesn’t feature an abundance of early speed. I just think he makes a lot of sense and is clearly the most likely winner. David Jacobson sends out a coupled entry, which figures to vie for favoritism. I’m not a fan of Colonel Bowman (#1A), who could attract more support. He’s put together an admirable record this season, but his form has been tailing off recently. It wasn’t a great sign when Jacobson entered him for $40k last week, and I don’t see him rebounding here. Divine Armor (#1) is the more interesting half of the entry, since he’s run a few races in Southern California that put him in the mix. However, his lack of early speed is a minor concern. The wild card is American Monarch (#4), who returns from a 560-day layoff. He had run some strong dirt races early in his 4-year-old season, but much time has passed since then and Bill Mott doesn’t have the best stats off these extended breaks.
Fair Value:
#6 MY HARBORS DREAM, at 8-5 or greater

RACE 9
This Red Smith is easily the most interesting race on the card, drawing a full field, including some also eligible entrants. Soldier Rising (#8) is clearly the horse to beat as he gets some class relief, dropping out of a steady diet of Grade 1 races. While he’s run well in all of those attempts at the highest level this season, he’s finishing second in each of them. Despite being beaten by some good horses along the way, he’s generally just picking up pieces each time. He looked similarly formidable on the way into last year’s Red Smith before failing to deliver, though that race featured a slow pace that worked against him. He’s supposed to get a much better setup this time with plenty of speed signed on. A contested pace would benefit several horses in this race, including Master Piece (#12), who found himself racing too close to a pace that fell apart in the Arlington Million last time. He’s better when he can take back and launch one late run, though timing his move has been an issue at times. I still don’t think we’ve seen the best he might have to offer since the switch to Rick Dutrow, and he figures to be a square price. I’m also intrigued by the horse drawn just outside of him, who is supposed to draw into this field with the expected scratch of Red Run. Classic Catch (#13) has been entered for turf twice but rained off the grass each time. He didn’t seem to mind two back when winning that race on dirt with a career-best 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Yet despite apparently waking up on the dirt, Todd Pletcher continues to harbor a desire to get this horse on grass. Watching his turf workouts from the summer at Saratoga, it's easy to understand why. He really appeared to take to that surface in the mornings, and it has to be taken as a good sign that he’s gotten back into top form recently. Distance isn’t supposed to be an issue for him, but he does have to work out a trip from this wide draw. My top pick is Marwad (#7). This lightly raced 4-year-old really seemed to come to hand once stretched out to marathon distances at Gulfstream last winter. He was a dominant winner going this distance on Jan. 28, overcoming a wide trip to win going away. He then might have run the best race of all in the Mac Diarmida, since he was again hung wide around the turns and still battled on for second. He was off for a long time after that, and it feels like his return on synthetic was just a prep. He chased some fast interior fractions that day before tiring. He should be fitter for this second start back, and he’s dangerous if he can build on that form from last winter.
Fair Value:
#7 MARWAD, at 7-1 or greater
#13 CLASSIC CATCH, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 10
I don’t want to invest too heavily in trying to beat likely favorite Icy Flavor (#7) in this finale. He just makes a ton of sense, especially once you closely examine the pace scenario. There just isn’t much speed signed on here, with he and Russi appearing to be the only horses who can attain forward position. And that rival is ridden by a jockey who is rarely aggressive, so Icy Flavor figures to control this race on the front end. He also ran a lot better than it appears in his lone turf start in New York. Returning from a lengthy layoff, he was competing above his eligible condition against tougher N2X foes. Furthermore, the trip didn’t work out, as he was stymied inside behind rivals in the stretch during a time when you didn’t want to be inside on the Mellon turf course at Saratoga. He’s supposed to be more effective against this group, but it’s not as if he projects to be some great price. The only horse that I can build a reasonable case for as an alternative is Veterans Beach (#9). This 7-year-old isn’t exactly a winning type with 13 slices to go along with his 4 career victories. However, he is much more of a turf sprinter, and he’s spent far too much time trying to transform into a router over the past two seasons. I like him turning back after trying a ridiculous spot on dirt last time. It’s also a positive that he moves into the Mike Maker barn and picks up Kendrick Carmouche, who is savvy enough to realize that you want to attain some forward position with this horse. They’re the main two for me, but I could also throw Image of Quality (#8) into the exotics. It’s unclear if he’s good enough, but the connections have been adamant about getting him on turf, scratching him in a number of off the turf races in recent months. He had a significant trip on debut, and he does have pedigree for this surface.
Fair Value:
#9 VETERANS BEACH, at 9-2 or greater

[ConleyPicks]

Del mar
By Brad FreeBEST BET: Habeas (6th race)
First Race1. Dark Vintage 2. Hedwig 3. Invincible

DARK VINTAGE and HEDWIG are stakes-placed 2yo turf sprinters who pre-entered last week in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile TurfSprint. The race oversubscribed and neither made the cut. They meet in this N1X, the call is locally based DARK VINTAGE. Winner of amaiden turf sprint at Del Mar in summer, he subsequently ran well finishing second in a $100k turf-sprint stakes at Santa Anita. Hepressed, made the lead, then was outrun by the odds-on favorite while finishing two+ lengths clear of third. Good try. He has a versatilepressing style, and is proven at DMR. But his main rival is good. HEDWIG faced better than these when second in a $487k turf sprintstakes last out at Kentucky Downs. The winner returned to finish third in a G2, the third-place finisher won a stakes race two starts later.HEDWIG is dropping significantly in class. Close call between the top pair. INVINCIBLE added blinkers and wired maidens last out.Perhaps he found his niche as a turf sprinter, but this really looks like a two-horse race.

Second Race1. Pilot Commander 2. Imagination 3. E J Won the Cup

First-time starter PILOT COMMANDER, a Justify sibling to stakes winner Freedom Flyer, looked strong working five furlongs incompany Nov. 5 (viewed online). Juvenile progeny of Justify have won at an above-average 22 percent rate first time out. His stable alsostarts $1 million yearling IMAGINATION, a full brother to G3 winner Occult. Sharp works suggest IMAGINATION is well-meant. Closecall between two well-bred stablemates. Bob Baffert trains. E J WON THE CUP removes blinkers after he chased a blazing pace andcracked. His runner-up finish two starts back over the DMR surface might be fast enough. BRITISH ISLES raced greenly and misfired farback in his disappointing debut. Stablemate of the top pair, he should improve second time out.

Third Race1. Respect the Crown 2. Auratium 3. Ellie Moore
Maiden 2yo RESPECT THE CROWN stretches out with two sprints under his belt and a running style that suggests two turns is what hewants. He took an awkward step on the turn last time and flattened out to finish fourth. But he worked twice since and should like this onemile distance. AURATIUM is racing into condition; his third last out in a similar turf mile was his best yet. Trainer Michael McCarthy haswon 15 races this year with 10 different 2yos. ELLIE MOORE goes long after a troubled sprint comeback. Her first two starts in the U.S.were off-slowly off-the-board finishes in sprints. She might prefer this two-turn trip.

Fourth Race1. Sheza Girly Girl 2. Spoiled Rotten 3. Equilove

SHEZA GIRLY GIRL scored the ninth win of her career last out in a low-level claiming race on synthetic; she moves up slightly to $10kclaiming while returning to the DMR surface on which she has won 3 of 6. The veteran can mow them down late. SPOILED ROTTENdrops to the lowest level of her career, and shortens to her preferred one-turn distance after fading in a route. Her recent figures are higherthan the top choice; 'ROTTEN also has more early speed. No knocks on an obvious contender. EQUILOVE has more speed than the toppair, and benefits by the shorter distance of this five and one-half furlong race after tiring at six. She drops one class level, and is expectedto the pace. Seven of the eight dirt sprints at this short distance last fall were won by the pacesetter.

Fifth Race1. Kissed by Fire 2. Runninwiththeboyz 3. New CollectionSpeedster

KISSED BY FIRE has her work cut out in this N2X turf sprint, facing at least two rivals with the same up-front style. Despitethe challenging pace scenario, 'FIRE gets the call while seeking her fourth straight win. She dominated both recent starts; she is quick fromthe gate. The challenge is coping with fast pace rivals to her outside. Tepid choice, regardless. RUNNINWITHTHEBOYZ has the perfectsprint style for this speed-laden turf race. In sprints, she rallies from slightly off. That style could be ideal if the pacesetters go nuts outfront. 'BOYZ makes her first start in three months; she won twice this year returning from three-month layoffs. Obvious contender. LasixDate: November 11th, 2023 Track: Del Mar11/10/23, 11:52 AM about:blankabout:blank 2/2on NEW COLLECTION makes her U.S. debut with creditable European form including a pair of stakes wins in Italy. Although importsfrom this stable generally race into condition rather than fire first start back, 'COLLECTION is third preference. RUFA RED KNOT andQUEEN MOLOTOV are the aforementioned speedsters the top choice must cope with.

Sixth Race1. Habeas 2. Memes 3. Diamonds Preferred

This maiden-20 is the softest chance yet for HABEAS, who finished in the money his last four starts including runner-up finishes bothrecent at SA and Los Alamitos. Either of those starts would be fast enough to win this bottom-level sprint. On paper, the 10-start maiden isa low-odds standout. His trainer Keith Craigmyle runs primarily at Los Alamitos, where his maiden favorites are 13-for-16 the past fiveyears. MEMES shortens to a sprint after he pressed and faded in his comeback following a layoff of nearly a year. He posted typically fastworks following his return, and he sprinted fairly well as a 3yo early last year. DIAMONDS PREFERRED tailed off in summer, but mayhave benefitted from a short recent layoff. The truth is, quality drops significantly after the top pair.

Seventh Race1. Dolce Zel 2. Turnerloose 3. Yerwanthere

A pair of graded winners trained by Phil D'Amato top this restricted filly-mare turf stakes, a race that has not been kind to chalk. Favoritesare 0-for-7; winning payoffs include $36.60, $28, $39.40 and $67.80. While it seems anything goes in the Kathryn Crosby Stakes, DOLCEZEL is a logical choice over stablemate TURNERLOOSE. 'ZEL has not raced in nearly a year, but she runs well fresh, recent worksappears decent, and the presence of jockey Flavien Prat hints positive intent. 'ZEL won graded races vs. 3yos last year while making herfirst start back from layoffs; she should be ready to fire first start since changing trainers. TURNERLOOSE has a recency edge over herstablemate, dropping from graded races in summer and fall including a G2 runner-up the last time she ran on the DMR turf. She has aforwardly placed running style; her stablemate rallies from behind. The D'Amato pair are the field's only graded winners.YERWANTHERE scored a visually impressive N1X win two weeks ago, and must have come out of the race in top shape because shewas supplemented to this stakes. It is a big jump from N1X to restricted stakes, but YERWANTHERE won last out with plenty in the tank.She is sharp.

Eighth Race1. Will Be 2. Devil Be Me 3. Oviatt Class

WILL BE returns to the DMR surface on which he scored a highly rated sprint win in summer; this will be his first route. Bred top andbottom to route, working well following a recent misfire in a fast-pace sprint, WILL BE might be the speed of the field. He is trained byD'Amato, who also entered DEVIL BE ME. The latter won three straight in spring and summer, then broke poorly and was eased his mostrecent start two months ago. The Cal-bred gelding is proven at two turns, and his versatile style could lead to a comfortable trip rightbehind the pace likely to be set by his stablemate. OVIATT CLASS, a late-runner, makes his first start since being compromised by anAug. 12. speed bias over this track. 'CLASS is a better horse than either summer start suggests; he should be rolling late. HARD TOFIGURE stretches out with speed to press the pace.

Ninth Race1. Park City 2. Birth of Cool 3. Never Seen Before

In a wide-open N3L claiming turf route, PARK CITY just might post an upset. His N2L claiming win on dirt two back was relatively fast,he was compromised by traffic last out when fourth in a N3L claiming route on dirt. He was a turf horse early in his career, running wellhis first two starts on the surface. This is his first turf route in more than a year, facing a modest field. He can upset with a clean trip.BIRTH OF COOL should be one of the favorites, returning to the DMR turf on which he ran a career-best race in summer when second ina starter allowance. He goes first off the claim by Craig Dollase, and drops from open $25k claiming to N3L. The challenge is distance; hemight want farther than one mile. NEVER SEEN BEFORE is reunited with Juan Hernandez, who rode him to victory in spring. Off sincelate August, 'BEFORE drops into a restricted claiming race and will be running late. COMRADERY was good enough in spring, and has aright to improve stretching back out following a dirt-sprint comeback.

[ConleyPicks]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | November 11, 2023

Nov. 10, 2023

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday November 11 | Post Time 5:35 PM EasternRiver City Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

With a full field of 12 likely given there are three also-eligibles which can run if any in the main body of the field should withdraw, we have a wide open race full of profit potential. The contenders are determined by the pace of the race and normally that would entail finding two or three “need the lead” types and looking at the best of the stalkers and closers. However, in this case with the makeup of the field, I think in spite of the fact Cellist (1), F Five (2), Stitched (9), Injunction (10) and one of the also-eligibles, Accredit (13), the fact is none of them have had to run fats on the lead.
That means Dominican Pioneer (7) is by far the fastest of any of the horses which may go for the lead, and therefore he could have an easy lead all to himself from the start and particularly with the longer run to the first turn in this mile and one-eighth race. That’s exactly what happened two months ago on September 13 at Kentucky Downs in a classified allowance field, where Dominican Pioneer established the lead from the start and never gave any of the other seven runners a chance to catch him. Winning when leading from start to finish at Kentucky Downs is nearly impossible given the right turn on the backstretch, sweeping final bend, uphill climb to the finish and one of the longest stretches in North America. That effort earned Dominican Pioneer a career-best and more important, field high 115 Equibase Speed Figure, better than the figures of the eight entrants with previous stakes wins. Although John Velazquez gets off to ride Smokin T (6), Gerardo Corrales getting on for trainer Wesley Ward is just fine and they have teamed up to win 25 races from 75 starters going back to the beginning of 2022. A lightly raced four year old with a three for six record on grass, and having missed by a head on the wire the only time he’s run over the Churchill Downs turf, Dominican Pioneer has a strong chance to successfully play “come catch me” and win this year’s River City takes.
Harlan Estate (12) won’t have a problem with his outside post, not only because of the long run to the first turn but also because he can run as far back as last if need be. One before lasts, Harlan Estate won the Tapit Stakes, also at Kentucky Downs, rallying from eighth of 11 after a half-mile had been run and widening on the field in the final yards. The reason for that big effort was the addition of blinkers not worn for since this past February, and that really got him to focus and run well. He was overmatched in the Grade 1 Turf Mile at Keeneland last month but the drop in class, and the fact he missed by a nose on the Churchill Downs turf at this distance in May, gives him a big shot of getting up in time if I am wrong about the pace scenario and a number horses all try for the early lead.
Cellist (1) gets the ground saving rail and just ran the best race of his career when leading late and settling for second, gamely so by a neck over the third horse, in the Sycamore Stakes last month at Keeneland. Cutting back from 12 furlongs to nine is fine as he’s won at the trip, and he’s two for four on the Churchill Turf. Garcia has ridden him fine in three straight and with a stalking style and the rail allowing the jockey and trainer to sit second behind Dominican Pioneer from the start and take over if that one falters, Cellist rounds out a trio of win contenders in this race.
There are number of horses (in addition to the win contenders) which might complete the exacta, most notably Red Run (3), Stitched (9), Injunction (10) and Seige of Boston (11). In addition, if Accredit (13), Beatbox (14) or Street Ready (15) draw into the race they might be considered in the second and third positions on exacta and trifecta tickets.
Bets:
Win:
Dominican Pioneer (7) can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or more.
Cellist (1) and Harlan Estate (12) can be considered for win bets at 4 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7) and Harlan Estate (12)
Optionally, consider Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7) and Harlan Estate (12) over Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7), Harlan Estate (12). Red Run (3), Stitched (9), Injunction (10) and Siege of Boston (11).
Trifectas:
Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7) and Harlan Estate (12) Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7) and Harlan Estate (12) over ALL over Cellist (1), Dominican Pioneer (7) and Harlan Estate (12).
If all 12 run the cost of this bet at the $0.50 minimum level is $30. If we play a $5 exacta box of the three main contenders the cost is also $30, for a total of $60, and we win if any two of the three finish first and second OR first and third. We win both the exacta and trifecta if all three finish in the top 3. In a full field of 12 with no strong favorite there appears to be a lot of reward for the risk in making both bets.

[ConleyPicks]

Aqueduct Tip Sheet - November 11

Nov. 10, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:50 AM ET
BEST BET: #6 MAD BANKER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	6	Mad Banker	K Davis
PLACE	6-1	4	Running Lucky	M Martin
SHOW	9-2	8	A Knights Courage	L R Rivera Jr.
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Star Sequence	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	5	The Delaware Boyz	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Braca	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX
RACE #2 $25,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:20 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	1-2	2	Iron Works	J A Gomez
PLACE	8-1	5	Inspeightoftrainer	J Lezcano
SHOW	10-1	8	Devils Cay	D Davis
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Achilles Heel	R Silvera
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	3	Gut Feeling	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Strong Light	R R Maragh
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/8 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX
RACE #3 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 LUCENCY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Lucency	J L Ortiz
PLACE	5-1	1	Burton Way	M Franco
SHOW	7-2	6	Ringside	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Escalation Clause	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Billy Price	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Modern Era	D Haddock
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #4 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:19 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Prince James	M Franco
PLACE	4-1	4	Never Early	J A Gomez
SHOW	6-1	3	Lohengrin Two	M Olver
WILD CARD	5-1	9	F F Rocket	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Winning Drive	R Silvera
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Striking Speed	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/9 BOX
RACE #5 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 1:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	11	Triple Espresso	J L Ortiz
PLACE	5-2	2	Enlighten	J L Ortiz
SHOW	15-1	7	Pet Mat	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	4-1	14	Bold Ambition	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	8	Cugino	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Urge to Merge	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 11-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/11 BOX, 2/7/14 BOX
RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:17 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 PEBBLES STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Sacred Wish	J Castellano
PLACE	5-1	5	Silver Skillet	J Rosario
SHOW	4-1	7	Startup Mentality	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	5-2	10	Just Katherine	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	3	On the Shortlist	T Conner
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Implicated	M Franco
* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 5/7/10 BOX
COMMENTS: SACRED WISHs last race was better than the finish as she cut her final time by almost a second. SILVER SKILLET is a highly consistent performer and just ran the top last race speed figure. STARTUP MENTALITY could win with just a little improvement from her debut. JUST KATHERINE is a top contender if the race is taken off the grass.
RACE #7 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 HAPPY BOB
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	9	Happy Bob	I Castillo
PLACE	5-1	4	Kingdom	O Hernandez Moreno
SHOW	9-2	6	Utamaro	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	6-1	3	South Street	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Uncle Water Flow	S Uske
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Break the Ice	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/9 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #8 $92,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	7	Victorious Wave	J L Ortiz
PLACE	7-2	4	American Monarch	J Alvarado
SHOW	5-2	1A	Colonel Bowman	M Franco
WILD CARD	2-1	6	My Harbors Dream	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Jemography	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	1	Divine Armor	I Castillo
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #9 $300,000 STAKES 1 3/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:43 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 RED SMITH STAKES GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	8	Soldier Rising	J L Ortiz
PLACE	6-1	5	Limited Liability	K Carmouche
SHOW	15-1	3	Main Event	E Cancel
WILD CARD	8-1	10	Verstappen	D Cannon
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	13	Classic Catch	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	16	Costa Terra	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 3/5/10 BOX
COMMENTS: SOLDIER RISING definitely has some of the most class in the field and appears to be on the upswing. LIMITED LIABILITY could improve in his second start after a layoff. MAIN EVENT should be on the lead and wins wire to wire when he wins. VERSTAPPEN ran the highest last race speed figure.
RACE #10 $75,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 4:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	7	Icy Flavor	M Franco
PLACE	9-2	15	Dr. Settles Dream	J Alvarado
SHOW	2-1	13	Ortus	D Davis
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Russi	J Alvarado
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	10	Dreampoint	H K Harkie
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Thank You Jon	D Davis
* EXACTA: 7-15 BOX, 15-13 BOX, 13-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/13/15 BOX, 6/13/15 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 11

Nov. 10, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	8	Absolute Courage	T Gaffalione
PLACE	12-1	11	Colonel Barton	M Michel
SHOW	20-1	14	Left Pocket Money	M Burnham
WILD CARD	9-2	4	Dario	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	10	Go Cats	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	9	Valuable Cargo	J K Court
* EXACTA: 8-11 BOX, 11-14 BOX, 14-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/11/14 BOX, 4/11/14 BOX
RACE #2 $66,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 ENCHANTED NILE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	4	Enchanted Nile	M Murrill
PLACE	5-2	7	Charge Account	T Gaffalione
SHOW	8-1	3	Shaniah	E Esquivel
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Coexist	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Caumsett	A Burgos
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	A Lot of Spunk	J McKee
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
RACE #3 $62,500 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	Derby Date	E Esquivel
PLACE	7-2	2	Camp David	T Gaffalione
SHOW	5-1	6	Cold as Hell	K J Asmussen
WILD CARD	3-1	1	Howbeit	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Friar Laurence	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Swing Shift	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
RACE #4 $300,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 DREAM SUPREME STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	5	Wicked Halo	T Gaffalione
PLACE	9-5	4	Little Prankster	J R Velazquez
SHOW	5-1	1	Your So Sillea	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Fire On Time	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Last Leaf	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Royal County	C Oliveros
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
COMMENTS: WICKED HALO hit the board in six of six at Churchill and seven of eight at the distance. LITTLE PRANKSTER won her last three and tends to make aggressive mid moves. YOUR SO SILLEA could be close to peak form in her third start after a layoff. FIRE ON TIME has four wins with two seconds and a third in seven at Churchill.
RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:01 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 TAMMY LYNN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	7	Tammy Lynn	L Saez
PLACE	4-1	14	Baraye	J R Velazquez
SHOW	9-2	4	Two Sip Sally	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	5-1	9	Destiny Star	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	10	Shore War	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	12	Twirl Around	J R Velazquez
* EXACTA: 7-14 BOX, 14-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/14 BOX, 4/9/14 BOX
RACE #6 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	3	Googol Joke	V Cheminaud
PLACE	8-1	13	One Red Cent	W A Rodriguez
SHOW	7-2	12	Augustine Red	L Saez
WILD CARD	12-1	14	Midnight Ambition	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	10	Latta	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Superhero	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 3-13 BOX, 13-12 BOX, 12-14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/12/13 BOX, 12/13/14 BOX
RACE #7 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:01 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 TUNISIAN SPRING
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	2	Tunisian Spring	J R Velazquez
PLACE	2-1	5	Easy Action	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	12-1	3	Underhills Tab	L Saez
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Zambezi	K J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Pensacola	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Wheres Randy	J R Leparoux
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #8 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:33 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	6	Sistina Chapel	J R Leparoux
PLACE	9-2	10	Plumeria	C A Torres
SHOW	15-1	4	Cheyenne Moon	M Murrill
WILD CARD	5-1	11	Calle Reina	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Amy Z	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	9	Montclair Road	L Machado
* EXACTA: 6-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/10 BOX, 4/10/11 BOX
RACE #9 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	7	Magic Tap	T Gaffalione
PLACE	7-2	10	Creative Minister	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	5-1	8	Cooke Creek	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Tiwanaku	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	9	Commandperformance	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Roman Centurian	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 7-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/8/10 BOX, 1/8/10 BOX
RACE #10 $300,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 RIVER CITY STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	1	Cellist	M Garcia
PLACE	9-2	11	Siege of Boston	J Ruiz
SHOW	12-1	3	Red Run	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Smokin T	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	4	Rockemperor	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	13	Accredit	L Machado
* EXACTA: 1-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/11 BOX, 3/6/11 BOX
COMMENTS: CELLIST ran the top last race speed figure and makes his third start after a layoff. SIEGE OF BOSTON usually runs well off the bench like today and has a bullet work in his last. RED RUN usually comes hard at the end and could put a big mid move in too. SMOKIN T could set the tone early and could be in contention from start to finish.
RACE #11 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	1	Loveland	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	9-2	10	Cararra	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	8-1	7	Class Act	L Saez
WILD CARD	7-2	9	Genetics	J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	5	Americas Vow	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Im a Mess	J R Leparoux
* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/10 BOX, 7/9/10 BOX

[ConleyPicks]

Del Mar Tip Sheet - November 11

Nov. 10, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	2	Dark Vintage	J J Hernandez
PLACE	4-1	3	Invincible	E A Maldonado
SHOW	9-5	1	Hedwig	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Des Doigts	E Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Always On Cay	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Lawless World	A Aguilar
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #2 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	E J Won the Cup	A Fresu
PLACE	5-2	3	Pilot Commander	J J Hernandez
SHOW	2-1	5	Imagination	F Prat
WILD CARD	15-1	1	Shot of Courage	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Deal Em	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Classic Alphie	M Gutierrez
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #3 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 RESPECT THE CROWN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Respect the Crown	H I Berrios
PLACE	4-1	1	Auratium	J J Hernandez
SHOW	4-1	3	Mocha Grande	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	7-2	5	Ellie Moore	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Pink Whitney	T J Pereira
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	Flight to Quality	G Franco
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #4 $9,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 SHEZA GIRLY GIRL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	8	Sheza Girly Girl	J Torrealba
PLACE	6-1	1	Tropicana Girl	A Aguilar
SHOW	4-1	7	Equilove	T J Pereira
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Flatterwithjewels	G Franco
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Never Sway	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	3	Spoiled Rotten	F Prat
* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX
RACE #5 $65,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	Kissed by Fire	M E Smith
PLACE	5-1	5	Shes Got a Way	A Fresu
SHOW	6-1	7	M Is for Magic	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	15-1	8	Queen Molotov	J Torrealba
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	9	Runninwiththeboyz	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	1	Alternate Rock	F Prat
* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX
RACE #6 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	7	Habeas	D A Herrera
PLACE	2-1	5	Memes	K Frey
SHOW	12-1	8	My Brother Mike	A Aguilar
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Donttestyourluck	E Payeras
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	6	Chasing Alchemy	A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Diamonds Preferred	E A Maldonado
* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX
RACE #7 $75,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 LINDAS GIFT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	1	Lindas Gift	T J Pereira
PLACE	5-2	5	Dolce Zel	F Prat
SHOW	12-1	7	Free and Humble	M E Smith
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Ganadora	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	4	Turnerloose	A Fresu
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Lucky for You	K Frey
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX
RACE #8 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Will Be	F Prat
PLACE	6-1	1	Cowboy Mike	K Frey
SHOW	4-1	8	Mucino	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Oviatt Class	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	7	Hard to Figure	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Clouseau	K J Desormeaux
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
RACE #9 $20,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	6	Park City	R A Vazquez
PLACE	4-1	2	Never Seen Before	J J Hernandez
SHOW	10-1	9	Egomania	E Hernandez
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Birth of Cool	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Relaxed Artist	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Mastermind	K Frey
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/9 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX