11-7-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on UConn +16.5(-106 at 5dimes)

UConn is 4-4 this season, but honestly they are not far from being 8-0. They have losses by 2, 3, 4 and 4 points this year. So UConn's 4 losses have come by a combined 13 points. This team is not two touchdowns worse than Cincinnati, and it wouldn't surprise us one bit to see them pull off the upset Saturday. The Huskies beat the Bearcats 40-16 last year, and Cincinnati won the Big East last season. UConn is putting up 402 yards/game of total offense, and this unit is much better than they get credit for. UConn is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. The Huskies are 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. The Huskies are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Take UConn and the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* 2009 A CC G AM E OF T HE Y EA R on Florida State +8.5(-106 at 5dimes)

Florida State continues to grind it out this season despite their slow start. They have posted back-to-back big wins by 3 points over both UNC and NC State. Now they look to knock off Clemson Saturday, a team that should not be this heavily favored. FSU has played their best football away from home, which is the sign of a mentally tough team. The Seminoles are 2-1 in road games this year, beating BYU and UNC and scoring a whopping 35.0 points/game in the process. FSU averages 444 yards/game of total offense this season, and when you compare that to the 347 yards/game Clemson is putting up, you can see why FSU is the best play in the ACC for all of 2009. FSU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points since 1992. The Seminoles are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take Florida State and the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
5* C F B S at ur day La te-N ig ht B AI LO UT on Idaho +8(-110 at bookm)

This Idaho team is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about. The Vandals are 7-2 this season after their 35-34 win over Idaho last week. Their only losses have come on the road at Washington and at Nevada, two solid teams. Fresno State has won 4 straight, but they should be on upset alert Saturday against a Vandals' team that has yet to lose at home. Idaho is 4-0 at home this year, scoring 33.7 points/game. The Vandals are putting up 433 yards/game of total offense this season, so they have one of the better offenses in the country. Fresno State is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 2 seasons. They were lucky to escape with a 31-27 home win over Utah State last week. The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Vandals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Vandals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Idaho and the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

Demarco

Penn St.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

Bob Valentino

50 Dime

Stanford

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

Chris Jordan

1,000? UNLV REBELS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

Randall the Handle


Illinois +7 over MINNESOTA PINNACLE

Let’s see, a 5-4 Minnesota team at home laying only a touchdown to a 2-6 Illinois team – that must be a mistake?! For the square that doesn’t pay attention to strength of schedule, injuries and motivation, this game seems like a “lock.” Take a closer look, however, to the current state of the Minnesota program and it’s a shock they’re being trusted to lay a touchdown to a team with better talent. Yes, Minnesota has the better record and team statistics but they lost their only offensive playmaker in WR Erick Decker. Without Decker, who had 50 catches for 758 yards in 8 games, Minnesota can’t count on any playmaker to make plays and in any BCS conference that’s a major problem. Ask Oklahoma State what losing a Dez Bryant does to your team’s offense and morale. It’s a huge loss that was masked by Minnesota thrashing Michigan State last week. That game was the first in which Minnesota scored more than three offensive touchdowns this season and you can safely infer that won’t happen again. Illinois finally got their first Big Ten win last week against Michigan, beating them 38-13 as a sizeable underdog. Much maligned quarterback Juice Williams was reinstated as the starter and finished the game without a turnover. Williams can kill your chances against elite teams, but facing a mediocre Minnesota team is exactly the type of opponent Williams’ thrives on. The money-line for this game currently sits at +2.40 and I would definitely recommend playing that number if you feel like gambling a little. I’ll stick to taking the points on one of the biggest overlays of the year. The injuries suffered by Minnesota are serious enough that they must be considered a completely different team; to our fortune the lines-makers have yet to adjust. Play: #319 Illinois +7 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

Randall the Handle

Soccer
Season To Date (Since January 2009) 28-50 -11.80 Units

Saturday November 7, 2009 9:30am EST

German Bundesliga

FSV MAINZ 05 +1.19 OVER Nurnberg PINNACLE

Mainz has battled all year long thus far, as they came into this campaign considered to be a walk in the park for the opposition. They have been anything but, as they have surprised everyone beating some of Germany’s best and staying close in most games on a weekly basis. They are very organized and disciplined, as they score timely goals surprising all opponents. This week they host Nurnberg who has not had the same success this season as their counterpart. Nurnberg has struggled all year managing only nine points from their first eleven matches and will walk into Mainz, a place where the hosts have not lost all season. Surprisingly, Mainz has plenty of quality, led by off-season loan acquisition Andreas Ivanschitz from Greek Giants Panathinaikos. Mainz is a very solid play here and the price is quite generous. Play: FSV MAINZ 05 +1.19 (Risking 2 units).



Saturday November 7, 2009 10:00am EST

English Premier League

BLACKBURN ROVERS +1.15 OVER Portsmouth PINNACLE

Last week I played against Portsmouth and got burned as they blew away Wigan Athletic 4-0. In fact Portsmouth has won their last two matches overall by the same 4-0 score line. Both of those games were played at home, this one against Blackburn however will not be. Blackburn has been downright awful this season as they currently sit in 18th place; they are only ahead of two teams one of them is Portsmouth who is in dead last! Blackburn has three wins this season in the EPL all of them coming at home in Ewood Park. They have also beaten Portsmouth 3 of the last 4 overall and look to continue that run at home. At home Blackburn has beaten Aston Villa, Burnley, and Wolverhampton, and with Portsmouth being last place they should not have any problems disposing of the Pompey’s. Play: BLACKBURN ROVERS +1.15 (Risking 2 units)



Sunday November 8, 2009 11:00am EST

Spain La Liga

SPORTING GIJON +1.37 OVER Espanyol PINNACLE

In a game in which two teams are very evenly matched, we’ll side with the home team, Sporting Gijon. Tied on points with 13 a piece and a very similar goal differential, there is one distinct difference in this match; Sporting Gijon is playing this one at home where they are undefeated thus far in La Liga. Coming off an inspiring draw last week at home against Real Madrid, this team will feel as though they can beat anybody on their home pitch, especially a mediocre side like Espanyol. On the flip side Espanyol has only prevailed once on the road and don’t score many goals away from home. They will look at this one as the game they can win on the road, as they have already had a tough road schedule impressively holding Sevilla to a 0-0 draw last week in Seville. As stated earlier, these teams are evenly matched, however, siding with the home team here looks like a positive play. Look for Sporting Gijon to snatch a narrow victory. Play: SPORTING GIJON +1.37 (Risking 2 units).



Sunday November 8, 2009 11:00am EST

France Ligue 1

Bordeaux +1.92 over LILLE PINNACLE

Lille has been made a slight favorite in this game for reasons really unknown. I love Bordeaux and think at this price they’re a must play. Bordeaux has easily been the cream of the crop in France this season both domestically and in Europe, as they recently walloped Bayern Munich in Germany this past week. Bordeaux is currently the league leader in the French League while Lille has struggled to this point and currently sits in 15th place. Lille are a scrappy bunch with bits of quality and should really be no match for a Bordeaux squad filled with all sorts of confidence after beating Bayern Munich on the road. Bordeaux has lost their last two games on the road in the French League; however, I fully expect them to bounce back here and claim all three points and stretch their lead in France’s top division. This price really stands out to me and should be considered a great value pick given this price. Play: Bordeaux +1.92 (Risking 2 units)



Sunday November 8, 2009 11:00am EST

English Premier League

Manchester United +3.26 over CHELSEA PINNACLE

And finally an English derby that should really be a screamer of a match between England’s top two squads. How can we ignore this price for Man Utd? I realize that Chelsea is at home but come on. They have been made huge favorites here and I don’t think that should be the case at all. Manchester United has a knack for winning these types of derbies and given this price it is certainly worthy of a play. I understand that Chelsea is awesome and can certainly win this match especially playing at Stamford Bridge in London but the qualities of both sides are equal. Both play a similar style and as a result this game will obviously be played very closely by both teams. Only two points separates these teams in the standings with Chelsea ahead, but I just can’t shake the value of Manchester United in this one. In a tight contest involving the best of the best in England, I’ll take Wayne Rooney and CO. any day of the week given this very generous price! Play: Manchester United +3.26 (Risking 2 units)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

WUNDERDOG
Picks and Analysis
Game: Northwestern at Iowa (Saturday 11/07 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Iowa -16 (-110)
A lot of people are down on Iowa based on their performance last week. They were down 24-14 going into the fourth quarter vs. Indiana. They went on to win the game by 18 points, scoring 28 unanswered in the final period. But instead of getting credit for that feat, they are getting beat up. I was actually impressed by that, knowing that Iowa was in a difficult spot last week. The fact that they could make that sort of comeback says a lot about a team that was supposed to be about defense only. We've been on Iowa a few times this year and they've done well for us. I like them here as well. They feel like they have something to prove based on what happened last week. They are also motivated by revenge. Northwestern beat the Hawkeyes 22-17 last season. That was a stinging loss as Iowa was favored by 9 points coming into the game. Even after allowing 24 last week, the Hawkeyes are giving up just 15.8 per game on average on the season. These teams have shared three opponents this season: Indiana, Michigan State and Penn State. The Wildcats lost two of those three and averaged 18.7 points scored vs. 28.7 allowed. Iowa beat all three including Penn State on the road. Their average score vs. the three was 26 to 15.7. Iowa is just too strong, and they have a couple of big motivating factors to boot. I like Iowa to run away with this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

AL DEMARCO
25* Penn State Nittany Lions
Houston Cougars
Cincinnati Bearcats
Duke Blue Devils

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

North Coast

Comp Under Play Of Week...illinois
Big Dog....duke
#2 Econ....byu
Big 12 Pow.....oklahoma State

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

M@linsky Saturday

4* Cincy -17
4* Syracuse/ Pitt Under 49
4* Duke 10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

Kelso:
200 units Fresno State -7.5 Idaho
15 units UL Monroe -2.5 North Texas
5 units UTEP -6.5 Tulane
4 units Kansas State +2.5 Kansas
3 units Pitt -21 Syracuse

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

BRYAN LEONARD

SATURDAY BIG 12 SUPER PLAY

375/376 Texas A&M at Colorado

The A&M offense is hitting on all cylinders right now as the veteran offensive line has settled in and is dominating the line of scrimmage. Coach Sherman simplified the run play calling a few games back and it's really helped this team become a more balanced offense. It also helps that WR Jeff Fuller has returned from missing four games with a broken leg. He's the favorite target in the passing game and makes this offense even more dynamic. The Aggies have scored 31 points or more in all but two games this season including 35 and 52 points the past two weeks.

Colorado has dropped four of their last five games and have been outgained by yards per play in all but one contest all season. The offense has produced 3.6 yards per play or worse in three of their last four games. Colorado has posted a positive turnover advantage just once all season and they continue to leave their defense in bad field position. The last two weeks opponents were able to start their drives at their own 42 yard line and at the 50 yard line. Colorado on the other hand started on their own 27 and 18 yard lines. This is a team that's struggling in all facets of the game right now and they shouldn't be priced in a game where they will need to win to cover the spread.

PLAY TEXAS A&M



BIG 12 BLOWOUT

355/356 Kansas at Kansas State

We rode the Jayhawks early on this season with success but when they had to step up in class Kansas failed to do so. They have dropped three straight games and five straight against the pointspread. The offense has produced just 3.7 and 4.2 yards per play the past two weeks and starting QB Todd Reesing is complaining about a groin injury. Defensively the Jayhawks have been lit up in conference play allowing 42, 35, 34 and 36 points. Even the pedestrian offenses of Colorado and Iowa State had their way with this defense.

As opposed to the Jayhawks we were dead set against this Wildcat team early on and for good reason. The ancient Bill Snyder returned this season and the results were pretty ugly in the early going. The Wildcats struggled to get by FCS entrant Massachusetts before losing to Louisiana and UCLA. But since that time it's all worked out well for the 70 year old and his players. Kansas State has won 4 of 6 games and covered 4 of their last 5.

Snyder was 13-4 SU&ATS against Kansas in his earlier stint in Manhattan and he knows how important this game is for recruiting purposes. The Wildcats have cashed 6 of the last 7 meetings here and are looking to avenge a 31 point loss last year in Lawrence. These two clubs are going in different directions right now and the betting marketplace has been slow to react. Grab the points now as Kansas State reclaims the Sunflower Showdown.

PLAY KANSAS STATE

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-7-09

KING CREOLE

'High Noon’ 3*** SIDE PLAY winner

12:00pm ET / #388 / Purdue Boilermakers @ Michigan Wolverines

Play on: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES –6

Let’s follow the line move and climb aboard before ALL the value is shot. At least we still get a win if the Wolverines win by a TD or more. Off back-to-back SU and ATS losses in row, the inclination might be to fade the home fav Wolverines. But the Playbook database reveals that home chalk has hit at a high percentage as of late in this situation.

29-13 ATS last 4 years: All Conference home favs of 4 > points off BB SUATS losses in a row (Michigan). If that last loss was a favorite (it was), the results improve to 15-2 ATS. The last team active in this System was WISCONSIN last week against (guess who?)…. Purdue! The Boilermakers got SHUT OUT 37-0. More of the same? Yes sir… may I have ANOTHER?

Speaking of getting SHUT OUT in your last game, here’s a ‘go AGAINST’ situation for the Boilermakers.
1-9 ATS since 2001: All home underdogs of 15 < points playing off a conference SHUTOUT loss (Purdue).

Michigan was favored by 7 points on the road last week, and were humiliated by the Fighting Illini 38-13. That’s an ATS loss by –32 points!

26-7 ATS last 10 years: Teams off a SU conference road fav loss of 21 or more points (Michigan). In the last 5 years, these teams have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS.