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Re: 7-1-10
Randall the Handle
Cincinnati +1.32 over CHICAGO
Note the 2:20 PM start. Let’s see if we have this right. The Cubbies just lost a series to a Pirates team that had dropped 17 in a row on the road. Not only did they lose the series but the Cubbies scored a total of four runs in three games off the worst pitching staff in the majors. So, yeah, the Reds will turn to a rookie call-up making his first major league start and the Cubbies have its ace, Carlos Silva going but so what. Silva is having a great year but it could blow up at any time because this guy was a career stiff for the last seven years and this start was pushed back a couple of days because of a nagging hamstring injury. The Reds have also seen Silva twice and the last time they torched him to the tune of 10 hits in just five innings. As mentioned earlier, Travis Wood debuts. In 98 innings with AAA-Louisville this year, he has 97 Ks, 23 BBs, 3.03 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. After a phenomenal season in '09 (1.21 ERA in Double-A prior to a promotion to Triple-A), the 23 year-old struggled at the beginning of '10 before he turned it around. He's been sensational in the month of June. Wood isn't a dominator nor is he a flamethrower. His fastball sits between 87-91 mph, but he's developed an above average cutter to add to his already plus-plus changeup. The question remains as to whether this type of arsenal will succeed in the Majors. His polish and feel for pitching is off the charts, but his breaking ball is below average. Wood's changeup, however, may be one of the better ones in the minors. He uses the same arm speed as his fastball and it features late, diving action. Oh, one last thing. He’s not being asked to fool the Yanks or Red Sox here. The Reds are superior in every way, they’re coming off a series win against the Phillies and they’ve won seven of its last nine. The Cubbies are a beat up team right now both physically and mentally and in no way does this putrid host warrant being this high a price over the Reds. Play: Chicago +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND +1.41 over Toronto
Note the 12:05 PM EST start. The Blue Jays –1.50 on the road? Are you kidding? Yeah, Shaun Marcum is having a remarkable season but in order to win a baseball game you have to score runs and that’s something the Jays have not been able to do for weeks. Over the last week, Toronto has made Jamie Moyer, Jake Westbrook and Aaron Laffey look like Koufax, Gibson and Drysdale. The Jays have lost five of six and that includes three straight to these Indians. Marcum has some troubling monthly trends including falling BPV (107 April, 87 May, 77 June), rising xERA (3.41, 3.95, 4.46) and his command is falling off too. Remember, Marcum missed all of last year and we’re now into July, thus his durability comes into question and he’s most certainly trending downwards. Justin Masterson is 2-7 and his surface starts don’t look very good. However, he’s had some bad luck this year due to a 35% hit rate and 67% strand rate. Masterson’s xERA (3.80) is more than a run below his actual ERA (5.21) and that’s a good sign. Also note that he has 72 K’s in 86 frames and that he’s been better at home and what we have here is an undervalued pitcher vs an overvalued one and you also can’t ignore the fact that the Jays are reeling. Overlay. Play: Cleveland +1.41 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +2.15 over SAN DIEGO
The Astros are 17 games under .500 and that early season deep funk has left this team as perhaps the most undervalued in the business. The Astros are so much better than its record and while Brian Moehler is not to be trusted ever, Jon Garland as a better than 2-1 favorite is insane. Baseball is a funny game and every day we see examples of why laying juice constantly is bad strategy. Take for example, the Texas Rangers. They were and still are on a big roll. They recently went on a run of 13 wins in 14 games and the only pitcher that beat them over that stretch is none other than Brian Moehler. That game was in Texas and any pitcher in this league has the potential to have a great game at Petco Park. Anyway, the Astros are scoring runs these days and in fact are coming off a series win in Milwaukee in which they scored 19 runs in three games and that includes four runs in six innings over previously untouchable Yovani Gallardo. As for Jon Garland, well, year after year it's the same: 200 IP, mid-4's xERA, no K's, double-digit wins. Every year his first half is better than his second half and that teases us into thinking there may be more but there's never any more. The sea air of San Diego and Petco Field clearly agree with Garland. Thing is, his record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills. He’s issuing a lot more walks than usual and while Garland has also struck out more and his ERA sure looks sweet, beware - xERA indicates that he’s not pitched that well. Hit % and strand % are making his season and anytime you can get anything close to this tag against him you should grab it. Play: Houston +2.15 (Risking 2 units).
CFL
SASKATCHEWAN +3 over Montreal
The Als are still the cream of the crop in the CFL and beat these Riders three times last season including that famous Grey Cup game in what has been called the worst beat of all time. Montreal is virtually the same team as last year and they’re never going to be easy to beat. The Riders are always tough at home and that makes them equally as tough to wager against. Darian Durant is back at QB and if the protection isn’t there, history suggests he’ll throw some picks. Still, he’s quite capable of a great game, as the Riders offense should prove to be one of the most potent. One cannot ignore the home-field advantage here. Saskatchewan is football country and these fans are among the most passionate in the world. The bottom line is that this is a tough opener to wager on. Montreal is potent both on defense and offense but a Grey Cup hangover may appear in the first week. We all know the Roughies want revenge and with that, it’s talent and home field advantage, expect the Roughriders to hang around and perhaps even come out victorious. Play: Saskatchewan +3 (No bets).
CALAGRY –13 over Toronto
The Argos were a complete dumpster-fire last season, as each week got progressively worse. The Argos won just once over its final 14 games and as a result, a complete overhaul ensued. Enter new but familiar head coach Jim Barker. That’s nice, it really is but Barker’s play-calling abilities have never been successful. He’s good at evaluating talent but he’s awful at calling the shots. Besides, the Argos have the least talent in the league and it’s not close. They have question marks at every key position and that includes QB, in which NFL castoff Cleo Lemon starts and he’s never thrown a regular season pass in the CFL. Furthermore, Lemon has zero proven WR’s to throw the ball to. The Argos were competitive in the pre-season but don’t be fooled by that. The Argos were playing their hearts out in the preseason while every other team was showing nothing and evaluating personnel. The Stamps will open at home and while the first week of the season is almost always a mystery, this one has no mystique whatsoever. The Stamps are as good as any team in the West and thus, these games against weak East opponents are crucial in terms of where they’ll finish in the standings. The Stamps will leave nothing to chance here. They’re superior on offense and they’re superior on defense. They’re playing a completely overhauled and under-talented Argos squad that has very little chance of winning more than five games this season. There will be no surprises or near upsets in this one and it says here the Stamps cruise. Play: Calgary –13 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Randall the Handle
Cincinnati +1.32 over CHICAGO
Note the 2:20 PM start. Let’s see if we have this right. The Cubbies just lost a series to a Pirates team that had dropped 17 in a row on the road. Not only did they lose the series but the Cubbies scored a total of four runs in three games off the worst pitching staff in the majors. So, yeah, the Reds will turn to a rookie call-up making his first major league start and the Cubbies have its ace, Carlos Silva going but so what. Silva is having a great year but it could blow up at any time because this guy was a career stiff for the last seven years and this start was pushed back a couple of days because of a nagging hamstring injury. The Reds have also seen Silva twice and the last time they torched him to the tune of 10 hits in just five innings. As mentioned earlier, Travis Wood debuts. In 98 innings with AAA-Louisville this year, he has 97 Ks, 23 BBs, 3.03 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. After a phenomenal season in '09 (1.21 ERA in Double-A prior to a promotion to Triple-A), the 23 year-old struggled at the beginning of '10 before he turned it around. He's been sensational in the month of June. Wood isn't a dominator nor is he a flamethrower. His fastball sits between 87-91 mph, but he's developed an above average cutter to add to his already plus-plus changeup. The question remains as to whether this type of arsenal will succeed in the Majors. His polish and feel for pitching is off the charts, but his breaking ball is below average. Wood's changeup, however, may be one of the better ones in the minors. He uses the same arm speed as his fastball and it features late, diving action. Oh, one last thing. He’s not being asked to fool the Yanks or Red Sox here. The Reds are superior in every way, they’re coming off a series win against the Phillies and they’ve won seven of its last nine. The Cubbies are a beat up team right now both physically and mentally and in no way does this putrid host warrant being this high a price over the Reds. Play: Chicago +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
CLEVELAND +1.41 over Toronto
Note the 12:05 PM EST start. The Blue Jays –1.50 on the road? Are you kidding? Yeah, Shaun Marcum is having a remarkable season but in order to win a baseball game you have to score runs and that’s something the Jays have not been able to do for weeks. Over the last week, Toronto has made Jamie Moyer, Jake Westbrook and Aaron Laffey look like Koufax, Gibson and Drysdale. The Jays have lost five of six and that includes three straight to these Indians. Marcum has some troubling monthly trends including falling BPV (107 April, 87 May, 77 June), rising xERA (3.41, 3.95, 4.46) and his command is falling off too. Remember, Marcum missed all of last year and we’re now into July, thus his durability comes into question and he’s most certainly trending downwards. Justin Masterson is 2-7 and his surface starts don’t look very good. However, he’s had some bad luck this year due to a 35% hit rate and 67% strand rate. Masterson’s xERA (3.80) is more than a run below his actual ERA (5.21) and that’s a good sign. Also note that he has 72 K’s in 86 frames and that he’s been better at home and what we have here is an undervalued pitcher vs an overvalued one and you also can’t ignore the fact that the Jays are reeling. Overlay. Play: Cleveland +1.41 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +2.15 over SAN DIEGO
The Astros are 17 games under .500 and that early season deep funk has left this team as perhaps the most undervalued in the business. The Astros are so much better than its record and while Brian Moehler is not to be trusted ever, Jon Garland as a better than 2-1 favorite is insane. Baseball is a funny game and every day we see examples of why laying juice constantly is bad strategy. Take for example, the Texas Rangers. They were and still are on a big roll. They recently went on a run of 13 wins in 14 games and the only pitcher that beat them over that stretch is none other than Brian Moehler. That game was in Texas and any pitcher in this league has the potential to have a great game at Petco Park. Anyway, the Astros are scoring runs these days and in fact are coming off a series win in Milwaukee in which they scored 19 runs in three games and that includes four runs in six innings over previously untouchable Yovani Gallardo. As for Jon Garland, well, year after year it's the same: 200 IP, mid-4's xERA, no K's, double-digit wins. Every year his first half is better than his second half and that teases us into thinking there may be more but there's never any more. The sea air of San Diego and Petco Field clearly agree with Garland. Thing is, his record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills. He’s issuing a lot more walks than usual and while Garland has also struck out more and his ERA sure looks sweet, beware - xERA indicates that he’s not pitched that well. Hit % and strand % are making his season and anytime you can get anything close to this tag against him you should grab it. Play: Houston +2.15 (Risking 2 units).
CFL
SASKATCHEWAN +3 over Montreal
The Als are still the cream of the crop in the CFL and beat these Riders three times last season including that famous Grey Cup game in what has been called the worst beat of all time. Montreal is virtually the same team as last year and they’re never going to be easy to beat. The Riders are always tough at home and that makes them equally as tough to wager against. Darian Durant is back at QB and if the protection isn’t there, history suggests he’ll throw some picks. Still, he’s quite capable of a great game, as the Riders offense should prove to be one of the most potent. One cannot ignore the home-field advantage here. Saskatchewan is football country and these fans are among the most passionate in the world. The bottom line is that this is a tough opener to wager on. Montreal is potent both on defense and offense but a Grey Cup hangover may appear in the first week. We all know the Roughies want revenge and with that, it’s talent and home field advantage, expect the Roughriders to hang around and perhaps even come out victorious. Play: Saskatchewan +3 (No bets).
CALAGRY –13 over Toronto
The Argos were a complete dumpster-fire last season, as each week got progressively worse. The Argos won just once over its final 14 games and as a result, a complete overhaul ensued. Enter new but familiar head coach Jim Barker. That’s nice, it really is but Barker’s play-calling abilities have never been successful. He’s good at evaluating talent but he’s awful at calling the shots. Besides, the Argos have the least talent in the league and it’s not close. They have question marks at every key position and that includes QB, in which NFL castoff Cleo Lemon starts and he’s never thrown a regular season pass in the CFL. Furthermore, Lemon has zero proven WR’s to throw the ball to. The Argos were competitive in the pre-season but don’t be fooled by that. The Argos were playing their hearts out in the preseason while every other team was showing nothing and evaluating personnel. The Stamps will open at home and while the first week of the season is almost always a mystery, this one has no mystique whatsoever. The Stamps are as good as any team in the West and thus, these games against weak East opponents are crucial in terms of where they’ll finish in the standings. The Stamps will leave nothing to chance here. They’re superior on offense and they’re superior on defense. They’re playing a completely overhauled and under-talented Argos squad that has very little chance of winning more than five games this season. There will be no surprises or near upsets in this one and it says here the Stamps cruise. Play: Calgary –13 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
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