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Re: 7-1-10
Scott Rickenbach's
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia @ 7:05 ET: McCutchen vs Hamels – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
The Phillies had gone over the total in six of their last seven games before yesterday’s under. However, with Roy Halladay on the mound yesterday, it’s not a big surprise that his start would stay under the total as that has been the trend for his games for much of the season. What is a surprise is that, even with a few bats out of the lineup, the Phillies are still getting some big hits at the plate. That is why we won’t hesitate to step out with a big play on their over on Thursday. Yes, the Phillies have recently seen Chase Utley and Placido Polanco join Carlos Ruiz on the injury list. However, the Phillies have seen their replacements step in with some big hits and, facing Daniel McCutchen of the Pirates tonight, we certainly expect that to continue. The Pittsburgh right-hander has made just 10 career starts at the MLB level and, in his 11 games (10 starts) at this level, he’s gone 1-5 with a 6.46 ERA. This season has been particularly rough as he’s been knocked around at a .333 clip and left-handed hitters have been particularly tough on the 27 year old right-hander. The Phillies roster is loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters so this is not a good match-up for McCutchen.
Of course the other side of this equation is how well will the Pirates hit Cole Hamels of the Phillies. The key here is that the Pirates, though the weakest scoring team in the league, have fared quite well in recent home games. Pittsburgh has scored at least 4 runs in 7 of their last 10 home games. Though it doesn’t happen often, the Pirates are on a 19-11 run to the over when installed as a home dog of +175 to +200. This streak dates back more than a dozen years. When installed as home dog in that price range it tells you how bad their pitching situation is and we do expect McCutchen and a weak Pirates bullpen to get pounded. As for the Pittsburgh sticks, look for them to enjoy some success against Hamels. The Pirates are 6-3 to the over in Thursday games this season. They have enjoyed some success at the plate in recent home games, and Hamels has allowed 11 homers in his last 8 starts. The Phillies southpaw also has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 11 innings spanning his last two starts. Hamels has struggled on the road this season as indicated by his 3-4 record, 5.40 ERA, and a .302 BAA. The Phillies are 5-3 to the over in Thursday games this season and the Pirates were 3-0 to the over in McCutchen’s starts before he had a rare decent outing at Oakland last week. That is a pitcher-friendly park though and we expect him to struggle much more against the high-powered Phillies in this one. Note also that the Pirates lineup could get some help from a Phils bullpen that has struggled often in recent games! Play OVER the total in Philadelphia as a *10* Top Play selection.
Scott Rickenbach's
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia @ 7:05 ET: McCutchen vs Hamels – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
The Phillies had gone over the total in six of their last seven games before yesterday’s under. However, with Roy Halladay on the mound yesterday, it’s not a big surprise that his start would stay under the total as that has been the trend for his games for much of the season. What is a surprise is that, even with a few bats out of the lineup, the Phillies are still getting some big hits at the plate. That is why we won’t hesitate to step out with a big play on their over on Thursday. Yes, the Phillies have recently seen Chase Utley and Placido Polanco join Carlos Ruiz on the injury list. However, the Phillies have seen their replacements step in with some big hits and, facing Daniel McCutchen of the Pirates tonight, we certainly expect that to continue. The Pittsburgh right-hander has made just 10 career starts at the MLB level and, in his 11 games (10 starts) at this level, he’s gone 1-5 with a 6.46 ERA. This season has been particularly rough as he’s been knocked around at a .333 clip and left-handed hitters have been particularly tough on the 27 year old right-hander. The Phillies roster is loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters so this is not a good match-up for McCutchen.
Of course the other side of this equation is how well will the Pirates hit Cole Hamels of the Phillies. The key here is that the Pirates, though the weakest scoring team in the league, have fared quite well in recent home games. Pittsburgh has scored at least 4 runs in 7 of their last 10 home games. Though it doesn’t happen often, the Pirates are on a 19-11 run to the over when installed as a home dog of +175 to +200. This streak dates back more than a dozen years. When installed as home dog in that price range it tells you how bad their pitching situation is and we do expect McCutchen and a weak Pirates bullpen to get pounded. As for the Pittsburgh sticks, look for them to enjoy some success against Hamels. The Pirates are 6-3 to the over in Thursday games this season. They have enjoyed some success at the plate in recent home games, and Hamels has allowed 11 homers in his last 8 starts. The Phillies southpaw also has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 11 innings spanning his last two starts. Hamels has struggled on the road this season as indicated by his 3-4 record, 5.40 ERA, and a .302 BAA. The Phillies are 5-3 to the over in Thursday games this season and the Pirates were 3-0 to the over in McCutchen’s starts before he had a rare decent outing at Oakland last week. That is a pitcher-friendly park though and we expect him to struggle much more against the high-powered Phillies in this one. Note also that the Pirates lineup could get some help from a Phils bullpen that has struggled often in recent games! Play OVER the total in Philadelphia as a *10* Top Play selection.
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