8-30-11

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[Mr. IWS]

Roy Halladay And Phillies Battle Cincinnati Reds
By: Michael Robinson

The Philadelphia Phillies’ Roy Halladay tries to get his Cy Young campaign back on track when he pitches at the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night.

The broadcast will begin at Great American Ball Park at 7:10 p.m. (ET). Bronson Arroyo will be on the mound for Cincinnati. The Monday night opener on ESPN was still pending with Cole Hamels and the Phils a 145 odds favorite over Homer Bailey and Cincy.

Philadelphia (83-46) is trying to keep focused with a playoff spot all but wrapped up. Hurricane Irene wiped out its Saturday and Sunday home games against Florida.

Halladay (15-5, 2.56 ERA) is still one of the Cy Young favorites, but hasn’t pitched in over a week and the team has lost his last two starts after going 14-1 in the previous 15.

His last start August 21 was at Washington. Halladay lasted just five innings due to a rain delay, his second shortest outing of the season. He left with a 3-2 lead, but saw the bullpen eventually blow it (5-4) in 10 innings.

The 34-year-old right-hander lost his previous start at home against Arizona, throwing a complete game, but losing 3-2. Halladay has been overtaken by Ian Kennedy (17) and Clayton Kershaw (16) for wins in the NL and Kershaw now has a lower ERA (2.51).

Halladay is 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA overall on the road this year, with the ‘over’ 7-1 in the last eight. He has faced Cincinnati just once this season, surrendering three earned runs (11 hits) over seven innings in a 5-4 May home win. He lost his only start at Great American Ball Park last year (4-3).

Cincinnati (67-66) has struggled all season and is double-digit games back in both the NL Central and wild-card. The team is still fighting with a 4-game winning streak, sweeping Washington three over the weekend, and is 12-5 in its last 17 overall.

Arroyo (8-10, 5.02 ERA) has had a season to forget for the most part, but has been much better in August (2.91 ERA) after an awful July (7.42 ERA). Cincinnati is 3-1 in Arroyo’s last four starts. That includes a gem at Florida last Wednesday, eight shutout innings in a 3-2 victory. It was his first winning decision since June 25.

The 34-year-old right-hander has a 5.13 ERA at home and has seen the Reds win just five of his 14 starts there. They did get a victory (5-3) against San Diego in the last one August 12.

Arroyo’s one start against Philly this season was a debacle, nine earned runs over 2 2/3 innings back in May on the road. Cincinnati is 0-4 in his last four starts against Philadelphia (10.00 ERA), dating back to 2008.

The ‘over’ is 11-2-1 in Arroyo’s last 14 starts against a team with a winning record.

This is the second series between the teams this year. Philly took three of four at home in May. The ‘over’ was 4-0 with Philly scoring 28 total runs.

Philly dominated the Reds last year, going 10-2 and sweeping them in the NLDS. However, Cincy was a respectable 2-2 at home.

The Phillies are 37-24 on the road this year (+6.6 units against the betting line) and 14-5 in the second half.

The Reds are 37-30 at home this season (-3.5 units), but 7-1 in their last eight there, feasting on easy competition (Colorado, San Diego and Washington).

Weather should be clear and in the upper 70s. Game 3 of the 4-game set on Wednesday will have Cliff Lee against hard-luck Dontrelle Willis.

[Mr. IWS]

Tuesday’s Betting Tips


Who’s hot

MLB: The Boston Red Sox are 12-2 in their last 14 games against the New York Yankees.

MLB: The over is 10-0-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Nationals and Braves.

WNBA: Minnesota is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight home games.

WNBA: Seven of the last eight meetings between Seattle and Los Angeles have played under the total.

Who’s not

MLB: St. Louis is 2-7 in its last nine meetings with the NL-Central leading Milwaukee Brewers.

MLB: Cleveland is 5-12 in its last 17 games against Oakland.

WNBA: Chicago is 2-7 against the spread in its last nine road games.

WNBA: Indiana is 1-1o against the spread in its last 11 matchups with Atlanta.

Key stat

0 – New York Mets starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey is winless in 15 career starts (0-7) against the Florida Marlins, compiling a 5.23 ERA. The Mets have won just three of those games, while Pelfry has lost all three of his outings against the Marlins this season.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers – Cruz is expected to miss three weeks of action with a Grade 1 hamstring strain, which will be a big loss for the Rangers down the stretch. Cruz is hitting .270 with 28 homers and 94 RBIs. The early word is that Cuban defector Leonys Martin may get the call from Triple-A Round Rock to fill in.

Game of the day

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (+135, 9)

Notable quotable

"When people compare him to other players, you can't forget he's a center fielder and he's playing a high quality defense out there. He's scoring a bunch of runs and RBIs, the two most important stats in baseball. In my eyes, he's the MVP." - New York Yankees third baseman on teammate Curtis Granderson, who has 38 homers and 197 RBIs this season.

Notes and tips

The Indianapolis Colts took quarterback Peyton Manning off the PUP list Monday, though he immediately ruled himself out of Thursday’s preseason game and his status for Week 1 is questionable. Oddsmakers currently have the Colts set as 3-point road underdogs in Houston for Week 1.

After jumping out to a 7-1 start to the season both straight up and against the spread, the San Antonio Silver Stars are fighting an uphill battle just to qualify for postseason play. They have dropped six consecutive games straight up (covering just once over that span) and sit 1 ½ games ahead of Los Angeles for the final spot in the Western Conference. The Silver Stars are 3.5-point favorites against Connecticut on Tuesday.

[Mr. IWS]

Tuesday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers


Streaking

Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers (10-14, 2.92 ERA)

Kuroda has won four of his last five trips to the hill, allowing just eight runs over that span. He has pitched pretty well all year, but is finally getting a little bit of run support. While he does have 14 losses on his record this season, his WHIP is sparkling at 1.10.

"He keeps us in every game, and for a while there we just didn't get him any runs at all," manager Don Mattingly told reporters of Kuroda.

Doug Fister, Detroit Tigers (6-13, 3.35 ERA)

Fister is coming off what was likely his best start of the season, throwing a perfect game over 13 outs against the Rays. He ended up blanking Tampa Bay over seven innings in a 2-0 win, improving to 3-1 since joining the Tigers. Fister was 3-12 with the offensively-challenged Mariners.

"You might see some better stuff," Tigers manager Jim Leyland said of Fister after that start, "but you can’t pitch better than he pitched today. In and out, changing speeds, cutting the ball, sinking the ball, riding the ball. You can’t pitch better than that."

Slumping

Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays (4-7, 4.42 ERA)

The Blue Jays have dropped four of Cecil’s last five starts, including a 9-6 loss against Kansas City in his last trip to the mound. He was smacked for five runs on nine hits over 6 1/3 innings in that one while striking out three and walking one. Cecil’s control has been better this season, but he has just 67 strikeouts in 97 2/1 innings.

Javier Vazquez, Florida Marlins (7-11, 4.63 ERA)

Vazquez still hasn’t won a start since July 27, but he won’t be in the Slumping section this time around if we had any other options. The veteran went seven innings in his last start against Cincinnati, allowing three runs on six hits. He struck out a season-high 11 batters but didn’t factor in the decision.

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Boston Red Sox Host NY Yankees
By: Willie Bee


New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (N/A)

New England residents are cleaning up in the aftermath of Irene, and the Boston Red Sox hope to do a little cleaning up of their own when they open a crucial 3-game set with the New York Yankees. It all begins at Fenway Park on Tuesday evening (7:10 p.m. ET).

Unlike this past weekend when the storm wreaked havoc all along the East Coast, weather shouldn't be a factor for this game or the rest of the series. Tuesday's forecast calls for clear skies, temps in the mid-70s at game time and a light WNW breeze.

New York was still trying to finish up a long weekend series in Baltimore on Monday night, carrying 170 chalk into the game that was still pending. The Yanks have been in a bit of a tailspin, dropping five of their last eight before Monday's contest.

Boston, meanwhile, was enjoying a second straight day off following a soggy set at home against the Oakland Athletics. The Red Sox will own at least a 1.5-game lead in the AL East when this series gets underway. Boston has picked up the pace with an 8-3 spurt after floundering a bit in mid-August.

Tuesday's initial mound clash pits John Lackey (12-10, 5.98) for the home team against CC Sabathia (19-9, 2.99) in a rematch of an Aug. 6 tilt here at Fenway that went in favor of the Red Sox, 10-4.

Lackey certainly hasn't been a mystery to most lineups this season, but Boston is finding ways to win with him on the hill recently. The Red Sox are 7-2 the last nine times the big Texan went to the mound, the 'over' also 7-2 in that span. In fact, taking the high side on the betting totals in Lackey starts has been a nice bread winner all year at 15-7.

Both of his starts this year against New York have gone into the win column despite Lackey allowing nine runs in 11 innings of work. This will be his fifth start vs. the Yanks here at Fenway since joining Boston in 2010, and the Red Sox are 3-1 in the previous four.

Four of the seven losses on Sabathia's personal ledger this campaign have come against the Red Sox. The big lefty's ERA in those four games is a bloated 7.20 compared to 2.40 against all other comers.

In that Aug. 6 game, New York backers were laying -150 on the road and Sabathia was eventually charged with seven of Boston's 10 runs in his six innings of action. Lackey allowed three of the Yankees' four runs, scattering six hits and a pair of walks over his six frames.

Boston has owned New York in the season series, winning 10 of 12. The Red Sox are 4-2 at home vs. the Yankees with the totals splitting 3-3 at Fenway and standing 6-5-1 'over' for the entire season.

Make sure to check back at DonBest.com for previews of Games 2 and 3. Phil Hughes and Josh Beckett are the expected mound combatants on Wednesday. Boston has yet to officially announce a starter for Thursday, with Andrew Miller and Tim Wakefield the leading candidates; New York is listing AJ Burnett for the series finale.

[Mr. IWS]

Tuesday's Best MLB Bets


San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-145, 6.5)

This story about Andre Ethier saying the Dodgers asked him to play hurt just won’t go away. It sounds a lot like Ethier is just whining about his slow second half while trying to leverage his contract situation.

"If he says his knee’s hurting and this and that, and we put him out there and he blows a hammy or hurts something else, now we're kind of boxed in to really having a lot of trouble using him," manager Don Mattingly said. "So we're going to talk about it and just go from there."

Ethier now says he wants to keep playing, which probably only adds to the tension in the in the locker room.

Still, the way Hiroki Kuroda is throwing the ball, it’s hard to go against the Dodgers at this price.

Pick: Dodgers

Florida Marlins at New York Mets (-115, 8)

The New York Mets won’t have much to play for in September, but now that Jose Reyes is back in the lineup, at least they should be entertaining.

Reyes returned from his second stint on the DL in the second half of Monday’s doubleheader with the Fish. Now, if his hamstring holds up, he should be in the running for the NL batting title. He was hitting .336 heading into Tuesday’s action.

"If I have a strong September, that's going to be good for the team, too, because that means I've gotten on base a lot," Reyes said. "I'm going to be scoring a lot of runs for this team, so it's not only for me. It's for the whole team."

With Reyes back setting the table for the Mets, we’ll jump on the over.

Pick: Over

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

704- 526 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one TUES: D'backs -155

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

The Rays burned Hondo last night as they were thoroughly thumped in Toronto to send the NRN (nasty red number) soaring to a mind-boggling 2,755 lavallieres.

Tonight, Morton, that old salt, is going against the 'Stros, so Mr. Aitch will put 20 units on the Pirates to patch together a victory. Also, he will assign CC the the menial task of outdueling Lackey -- 20 units on the Yankees.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday

NY YANKEES -160

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Connecticut at San Antonio

The Sun look to bounce back from their 83-72 loss to Tulsa and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following a SU defeat. Connecticut is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, AUGUST 30 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Chicago at New York (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 112.231; New York 115.432 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 3; 151 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5; 145 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5); Over

Game 603-604: Indiana at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 114.145; Atlanta 118.924 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 5; 153 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 159 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Under

Game 605-606: Washington at Minnesota (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 104.048; Minnesota 120.328 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 16 1/2; 146 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 13 1/2; 148 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-13 1/2); Under

Game 607-608: Connecticut at San Antonio (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 111.267; San Antonio 111.844 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 154 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 152 Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3 1/2); Over

Game 609-610: Phoenix at Tulsa (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 112.621; Tulsa 101.000 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 11 1/2; 172 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9; 175 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-9); Under

Game 611-612: Seattle at Los Angeles (10:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 109.405; Los Angeles 109.466 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 146 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 143 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

San Diego at LA Dodgers

The Padres look to take advantage of a Dodgers team that is 1-5 in Hiroki Kuroda's last 6 home starts. San Diego is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+130). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, AUGUST 30 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.487; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.718 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 8 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Over

Game 953-954: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 13.784; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.243 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 8 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-180); Under

Game 955-956: Florida at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Vazquez) 13.678; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.659 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); Over

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.348; Houston (Sosa) 13.894 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 8 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Under

Game 959-960: St. Louis at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Jackson) 14.890; Milwaukee (Marcum) 16.302 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-150); Over

Game 961-962: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 16.425; Arizona (Miley) 15.699 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Arizona (-140); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+120); Under

Game 963-964: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stauffer) 15.975; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.591 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+130); Under

Game 965-966: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Garza) 13.909; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.658 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-145); Over

Game 967-968: Oakland at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 14.994; Cleveland (Gomez) 14.438 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 969-970: Kansas City at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Francis) 14.500; Detroit (Fister) 15.859 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Under

Game 971-972: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.609; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.550 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.434; Boston (Lackey) 17.056 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+130); Over

Game 975-976: Tampa Bay at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 14.890; Texas (Feldman) 16.514 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 977-978: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Swarzak) 15.375; White Sox (Stewart) 15.144 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-155); 9 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+135); Over

Game 979-980: LA Angels at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Williams) 16.147; Seattle (Vazquez) 14.980 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

WhiteSox -155 over Twins

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

WhiteSox -155 over Twins

[Mr. IWS]

WEST CAPPER

1** Mets (-120)

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

Marlins
Twins