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strongest release
10* 7 Day Guarantee (7-1)
Red Sox +1.5 -125
5* Reds +1.5 +105 (34-26)
strongest release
10* 7 Day Guarantee (7-1)
Red Sox +1.5 -125
5* Reds +1.5 +105 (34-26)
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MLB
Write-Up
Tuesday, August 30
Hot pitchers
-- Halladay is 4-1, 2.98 in his last six starts.
-- Jurrjens is 5-2, 3.50 in his last ten starts.
-- Morton is 1-1, 2.20 in his last five starts.
-- Marcum is 2-0, 2.18 in his last three starts.
-- Kuroda is 4-1, 2.43 in his last five starts. Stauffer is 1-1, 2.08 in his last couple starts.
-- Fister is 2-0, 0.64 in his last couple starts.
-- Hellickson is 2-2, 2.14 in his last five starts.
-- Swarzak is 2-1, 2.42 in his last four starts.
-- Williams won his only '11 start, allowing one run in seven IP.
Cold pitchers
-- Arroyo is 0-4, 6.07 in his last nine starts.
-- LHernandez is 1-2, 7.48 in his last four starts.
-- Vazquez is 0-2, 4.50 in his last four starts. Pelfrey is 1-1, 5.60 in his last five starts.
-- Sosa is 1-2, 5.09 in four starts for Houston.
-- Jackson is 0-2, 8.36 in two road starts for St Louis.
-- Cook is 1-2, 6.52 in his last five starts. Miley is 1-1, 4.50 in two starts for Arizona.
-- Garza is 1-2, 5.09 in his last four starts. Vogelsong is 1-3, 5.00 in his last four outings.
-- Cahill is 0-3, 7.22 in his last five starts. Gomez is 0-2, 6.10 in four starts, last of which was July 17.
-- Francis is 1-3, 7.06 in his last four starts.
-- Guthrie is 1-2, 6.08 in his last four starts. Cecil is 0-3, 4.61 in his last four starts.
-- Lackey has a 5.73 RA in his last six starts; Red Sox are 1-8 when they score less than six runs in his starts. Sabathia is 1-2, 6.04 in his last four starts.
-- Feldman is 31-32, 4.78 in 78 career starts; this is his first 2011 start. He is 0-0, 3.94 in seven games this season (16 IP).
-- Stewart is 1-2, 4.82 in three starts for the Pale Hose.
-- Vasquez allowed six runs in 5.1 IP in his major league debut.
Totals
-- Five of last six Halladay starts went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Jurrjens starts went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Vazquez starts.
-- Three of four Sosa starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in Marcum's last eight starts.
-- Eight of last nine Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- 12 of San Diego's last 18 road games went over the total.
-- Eight of Giants' last eleven home games stayed under total.
-- Six of Cleveland's last nine games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Fister starts went over the total.
-- Over is 10-1 in Guthrie's last eleven home starts.
-- Over is 13-3 in Lackey's last sixteen starts.
-- Under is 10-4 in Hellickson's last fourteen starts.
-- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Minnesota games.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in Angels' last nine road games.
Hot Teams
-- Mets won their last four games, allowing six runs.
-- Braves won seven of their last nine games.
-- Reds won eight of their last nine home games.
-- Brewers won 21 of their last 24 home games. St Louis won three of its last four games.
-- Arizona won last seven games, allowing total of six runs. Colorado won six of its last nine games.
-- Dodgers won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Orioles won six of their last eight games. Toronto is 11-8 in its last nineteen road games.
-- Red Sox won five of their last six games.
-- Tampa Bay are 9-4 in its last thirteen games.
-- Angels won seven of their last ten games.
-- Tigers won eight of their last eleven games.
-- White Sox won six of their last eight games.
Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost 12 of their last 15 games.
-- Washington lost its last six games, scoring 13 runs.
-- Phillies are just 5-6 in their last eleven games.
-- Pirates lost nine of their last 13 games. Astros lost six of their last nine games, but won last two.
-- Padres lost their last five games, scoring four runs.
-- Giants are 5-9 in their last 14 games. Cubs lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Bronx Bombers are 4-5 in its last nine games.
-- Oakland lost four of its last five games. Cleveland lost seven of its last eleven games.
-- Royals are 5-9 in their last fourteen road games.
-- Rangers lost six of their last nine games.
-- Twins lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Seattle is 4-9 in its last thirteen games.
Umpires
-- Phil-Cin-- Four of last five Kulpa games stayed under total.
-- Fla-NY-- Five of last six Johnson games went over the total.
-- Pitt-Hst-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Winters games.
-- Col-Az-- Four of last five Bellino games went over the total.
-- SD-LA-- Underdogs are 5-3 in last eight Iassogna games.
-- Chi-SF-- Last four Nauert games stayed under the total.
-- A's-Clv-- Underdogs are 14-8 in last 22 Darling games.
-- KC-Det-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Cuzzi games.
-- Min-Chi-- Over is 9-3 in last twelve Dimuro games.
-- LA-Sea-- Last three Wendelstedt games stayed under the total.Comment
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Sports Wagers
Colorado/ARIZONA over 9½ Pinnacle
The Rockies are the highest-scoring team in the NL since the All-Star break. COL leads the NL this month with a .793 OPS while the D-Backs .657 mark is ahead of only the Giants but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Arizona has scored five runs or more in four of its last five games and seem to have their swagger back. They now get to face Aaron Cook in a hitter’s park and for Cook the writing is pretty much on the wall, as he has very little chance of success. In 81 innings he has walked 30 and struck out 29. Cook has an ERA of 5.47, a WHIP of 1.63 and if there’s any upside to this stiff it’s hard to locate. 12 of the last 15 times Cook has faced the D-Backs it has gone over the total and that’s significant, as it suggests this is a high percentage play. Wade Miley makes just his third start of the season after one poor start and one good one. He was whacked in Atlanta and followed that up with a decent performance against Washington. Both those games were on the road against much weaker offenses than the one he’ll see here. Wiley issued six walks in a combined 10 frames and that’s a problem. Against the Nationals in which he went six full and didn’t allow a run, his xERA for that game was 4.91 and that should not be ignored. His velocity and command are inconsistent due to his erratic mechanics and we’re likely to see a performance like the one we saw in his debut against Atlanta (4 IP 7H 5 ER) as oppose to the one we saw in Washington. Play: Colorado/Arizona over 9½ +100 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +136 over SAN FRANCISCO Pinnacle
As a +215 pooch last night, Randy Wells beat Tim Lincecum 7-0. Need we say more? The Giants are a huge risk as a big favorite every single time out. San Fran, as they have been most of the year, is last in the NL in OPS this month with a .643 mark. The Giants have scored 10 fewer runs than any other team this month, and 50 fewer than any other team this year. Geovany Soto is 15-for-79 (.190) this month with 32 K’s. Cody Ross and Chris Stewart are a combined 22-for-133 (.164) in August. After facing Randy Wells last night and not scoring, facing Matt Garza will seem like facing Sandy Koufax. Garza has been victimized by poor defense and spotty bullpen support. That said, Garza has posted the best skills of his career this season with an elite strikeout rate, outstanding control and a solid groundball bias profile. Garza’s blowup risk is lower than you might think. Don't be surprised if his ERA continues to head south towards his 3.22 xERA. This guy is good, really good. Ryan Vogelsong seems to have found a way to keep batters off balance with his low-90s fastball, cutter, curve and changeup. At the ripe age of 33, this is the first time Vogelsong has had any significance at this level. However, this is about betting against him. This is about betting against the Giants because they’re offense is a joke while the Cubbies offense is going good. Chicago has a .777 OPS this month, third in the league. Aramis Ramirez (38-for-89, .427) and Reed Johnson (22-for-55, .400) sit one-two in the NL in batting this month among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances. The Cubbies have an edge on the hill, a huge edge at the dish and as a result, they’re a must play at this price. Play: Chicago +135 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay/TEXAS over 9½ +104 Pinnacle
Man, these Rangers are tough to keep off the scoreboard. Jeremy Hellickson does not have the skills to support his nice surface stats. Most of his skills against RH bats have been good, however, against lefties they’re not good and he his BB/K ratio is average at best. Then there’s this: Hellickson has an awful groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 31%/22%/47% and at this park that’s a problem waiting to happen. Throw in his very lucky 78% strand rate on the year and 83% strand rate over the past month and it’s hard to imagine the Rangers not getting a whole bunch of runs. They might have to with Scott Feldman going. Feldman makes his first start of the year after seven games out of the pen. Feldman is a low strikeout pitcher with not much margin for error. With good luck, 2009 was possible. With bad luck (and more fly-balls), 2010 is reality. To wager on a Feldman-pitched game to go under is essentially to roll the dice and pray. Rays hit 10 jacks in a four-game set against the Blue Jays over the weekend and one of these teams might come damn close to going over the total on their own. Play: Tampa Bay/Texas over 9½ (Risking 2 units).Comment
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Fantasy Sports Gametime
Play Philadelphia (-180) over Cincinnati (Top Play of the Day)
Philadelphia has won 17 of the last 22 games vs. Cincinnati and they have also won 76 of the last 112 games as a favorite of -110 or higher. Roy Halladay has won 20 of the last 24 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has also won 17 of the last 21 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.
Play Atlanta (-180) over Washington (Bonus)
Play Detroit (-170) over Kansas City (Bonus)Comment
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MLBPredictions
Kevin
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles - BLUES JAYS TO WIN (-114)
(Note: I'm risking 2.28 units to win 2 units)
After a victory over the Rays last night the Blue Jays will head to Baltimore looking for another victory. The Jays send Brett Cecil to the mound who is looking to bounce back from a couple rough starts, and get back into his July form. Cecil is 4-7 on the season with a 4.42 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .245 opponents batting average. Cecil has enjoyed success against the Baltimore orioles going 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his four career starts against the AL East division rivals. Baltimore sends Jeremy Guthrie to the mound tonight, who is looking to avoid his 17th loss of the season. Guthrie is 6-16 on the year with a 4.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .269 opponents batting average. Guthrie is coming off a strong outing against Minnesota, but prior to that had allowed 6, 4 and 6 earned runs in his previous three starts. Guthrie has pitched worse at home this season, with a 4.95 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .287 opponents batting average. He has had tough luck with the Blue Jays in his career, going 2-7 against them lifetime despite a 3.62 ERA. Take note that the Blue Jays have owned the Orioles over the past few season, going 43-19 in their last 62 meetings. Also note that the Blue Jays are 4-0 in Cecil's 4 starts vs the Orioles, while the Orioles are just 1-5 in Guthrie's last 6 starts vs the Jays. Toronto is 12-5 in Cecil's last 17 starts vs AL East teams, and 5-1 in his last 6 starts during game 1 of a series. Toronto is 4-0 in their lat 4 games as a road favorite, and 5-2 in their last 7 as a favorite overall. The Orioles have yet to finish a month off above .500, and nothing will be different in August, as they enter tonight's game with a 11-16 record in August. They are 18-39 in their last 57 games overall, 17-37 in their last 54 games as an underdog, and 4-10 in their last 14 games vs a left handed starter. The Orioles are also just 3-7 in Guthrie's last 10 starts, 1-4 in his last 5 home starts, and 15-38 in his last 53 starts vs AL East opponents. The Jays continue their dominance over the Orioles in tonight's game after a pick me up game last night against the Rays. I like the short odds here on the Blue Jays with tonight's pitching match up. Take Toronto with confidence here tonight on the money line.Comment
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David Banks
Mon 0 - 1
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
The mother of all baseball rivalries is set to open up yet another chapter on Tuesday night when Derek Jeter and the New York Yankees travel to Fenway Park to match wits with David Ortiz and the hated Boston Red Sox; the series opener’s first pitch is set for a 7:10 ET first pitch on the MLB Network.
Monday’s make-up date with the Baltimore Orioles pending, the Yankees sit two-games out in the AL East standings behind the Red Sox after managing a poor 2-4 SU mark last week. Still, there’s no doubt that manager Joe Girardi’s outfit will qualify for the post-season. However, as the division or wild card winner is yet to be determined. After costing its betting backers $460+ back in 2010, the Bronx Bombers are well on their way towards coming out in the green in 2011 already reeling in $698. Though its cost MLB bettors $118 at home (41-26), NY has been a solid investment as a visitor by going 38-26 ($816).
Just a short week ago, the Red Sox were in 2nd place in the AL East and losers of two of three at home to the Tampa Bay Rays before going into KC and taking three of four. Since then, Boston has simply torn the cover off the ball en route to winning five of seven against the AL West representative A’s and Rangers by an aggregate score of 48-29; 15 of the runs given up came the game after their successful trip to Arlington. So in other words, the Red Sox are en fuego once again which spells ultimate doom for those that get in their way.
Boston’s simply owned the Yankees this season winning 10 of the 12 overall clashes most recently going into the Bronx at the beginning of August and taking two of three; the ‘over’ holds a slim 6-5-1 overall advantage. New York’s 7-2 in CC Sabathia’s L/9 road starts against +.500 opponents, but the Yanks have dropped each of his four outings against Boston this season. The Red Sox are 12-10 in John Lackey’s 22 starts to date, but the righty has recently caught fire of late (7-1 L/8) and they’re 9-4 his L/13 against winning teams in Beantown.
PICK: NYY/BOS OVERComment
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