9-24-11

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EA Sports Consultants
50* Georgia -9.5 (12:20pm ET)

50* Bowling Green +4 (1:00pm ET)

50* Texas A&M -4.5 (3:30pm ET)

50* Wyoming +21 (7:30pm ET)

25* Ohio +4.5 (2:00pm ET)

25* Illinois -13 (3:30pm ET)

25* Clemson -2 (3:30pm ET)

25* California +1 (3:30pm ET)

25* UL-Lafayette +17 (6:00pm ET)

25* Missouri +20 (8:00pm ET)

25* Utah St. -10.5 (8:00pm ET)

25* USC +2.5 (10:15pm ET)

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Greg Roberts radio program in OKC
Tx A&M
Clemson
Oklahoma
LSU
N Dame
Alabama
Utah St
Miss St
Ariz St
SMU
Georgia
Boise
Toledo
Wyoming
Oregon St
Mich over
PROS
Eagles
Vikes
Falcons
Green Bay over
Steelers

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POINTWISE PHONES:

4* Miami, Tex A&M

3* Utah St, Oreg St, Baylor, California

2* Oklahoma, S. Miss, Boise St, Georgia Tech, Toledo

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Spylock

3* Central Florida +2
1* Georgia -10
1* East Carolina -14
1* Utah State -10.5

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ROBERT FERRRINGO


SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
****** Take #362 Texas Tech (-16) over Nevada (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 24)
Note: This is my College Football Game of the Month.

I am not a huge fan of Texas Tech right now. But I am absolutely looking to fade Nevada. This team didn't even show up in Oregon and last week they barely managed to hold off a San Jose State team whose starting quarterback went 3-for-14 for 21 yards. SJSU brought its regular starter (who was injured) in late in the game and he was intercepted in the end zone in the final minutes or else Nevada loses that game as well. Look, this is just not the same caliber of Nevada team that had a season for the ages a year ago. They are young and inexperienced at the skill positions and I don't see the stopping too many people with that defense. This is also the third of four straight road games to open the year and next week the Wolfpack have the rematch with Boise State. There is no doubt that they are looking ahead to that game and that they think that Boise State will be more their speed. (They are wrong.) Where is the motivation for this team in this game? The thing about Texas Tech here is that we don't really know how good they are yet. But I do know this much: they won 50-10 and 59-13 in their last two games and their quarterback has completed an obscene 81.8 percent of his passes for 727 yards and 8 touchdowns. Compare that with Nevada's QB, who has completed 57.1 percent of his passes for 331 yards and 1 touchdown (with 4 INTs).

This is Tech's second year in Tommy Tuberville's system and there is no doubt that Tuberville can coach. I don't see any reason for him to pull back in this one and I think that Big 12 size and speed are going to overwhelm Nevada similar to their 69-20 loss against Oregon. Let's remember: Nevada lost by 31 at Arizona State in 2006, by 42 at Nebraska in 2007, by 16 at home to Tech in 2008, by 42 at Missouri in 2008, by 35 at Notre Dame in 2009, and by 10 at home to Missouri in 2009. They beat an awful Cal team at home last year. But my point before holds - this isn't last year's team. And other more talented Nevada teams lost six straight games to BCS teams by an average of 29.3 points per game. (And that doesn't count this year's 49-point beating at the hands of Oregon.) The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS as nonconference underdogs recently, and most of those numbers came when they were good. So we have an opportunity to ?buy low? with Texas Tech here. I will take it. We may not 100 percent know what they are. But we know what Nevada is (weak) and from what I have seen of the Red Raiders they look like they could be a team on the rise.

**** Take #370 Virginia (-3) over Southern Miss (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 24)

The Cavaliers have been kind of a hard-luck team for their backers over the past couple weeks. There is no doubt that they should have covered against Indiana two weeks ago and I felt like last week they definitely should have covered against North Carolina. That may have created some value in this line. Virginia is a very experienced team and this group is going to fight for a bowl slot. They understand that if they want to reach that goal then this week's game is a must-win, and I like playing on motivated teams. Southern Miss is kind of uninspiring. They barely beat Louisiana Tech and lost at Marshall to a Herd team in a letdown spot after their WVU game. Last week's win over SE Louisiana doesn't do much for me. The Golden Eagles haven't beaten a BCS team on the road since 2004 and they are just 3-11 against BCS schools the past six years. With the conference home opener on deck I think that the Eagles can be forgiven for getting run over by a pissed-off, way overdue Virginia team that needs a win here.

**** Take #372 Texas A&M (-4) over Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 24)

This is a huge revenge spot here for the Aggies and I think that they are going to lay into Oklahoma State. The Cowboys pulled off a win at home last year against nearly this same Aggies team, winning 38-35 with the help of five turnovers from Jerrod Johnson. The last two turnovers were 1) returned for a touchdown and 2) used to set up the game-winning field goal. The Aggies led 21-7 on the road at halftime of that game and were clearly the better team. Well, Texas A&M has 18 starters back from that contest and now they get Oklahoma State in College Station. They have triple-revenge after three straight losses to the Cowboys and I think that they are going to lay the wood this weekend. Mike Gundy is just 10-19-2 ATS as an underdog with Oklahoma State, as this is a team that usually plays up or down to its expectations. A&M is better defensively, has a better running game, has more experience, and has the home crowd edge. As long as they blanket Justin Blackmon (as best as any team can) they should find a way to cash this ticket as the ever-bountiful "lower ranked team favored over a higher ranked team".

** Take #387 UL-Monroe (+17) over Iowa (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 24)

Iowa sucks. I do not think that this Iowa team is very good and I think that all of the lucky breaks that they earned over the last two years are now evening out. This team lost a ton of experience from last season's squad and the rest of the Hawkeyes look to be just learning their way. On the other side, this UL-M team is very experienced and they aren't afraid of anyone. Monroe has gone on the road to face six Top 10 teams since the start of the 2008 season and they have availed themselves fairly well. This team will pound the ball on the ground and will try to shorten this game by keeping the clock moving. They have already banged heads with two better teams than Iowa - Florida State and TCU - and I felt like this group played better than the final score indicated in both contests. Monroe's defense has been underrated, and is ranked nearly 50 slots higher than Iowa's despite playing the significantly tougher schedule. Iowa lost to Iowa State (who is horrid) and they were getting pounded at home by a mediocre Pitt team until a very fortunate fourth quarter led to a comeback. Iowa has a bye and Penn State on the horizon. I don't see what their motivation is here and they could be slotted for a letdown after their big comeback last week. Iowa takes care of business for the win but I don't see a blowout.

** Take #326 Maryland (-8.5) over Temple (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 24)

This is a terrible spot for Temple, which is fresh off last week's home loss to in-state rival Penn State. The Owls had to have been treating that game like their Super Bowl, and a four-point loss has to have just wiped this team out, emotionally. Now they have to pack up and go on the road against a Maryland team that has to be steaming from its loss to West Virginia last week. The Terps played up to their potential in the second half of that game and I expect a carryover for Randy Edsall's group. This line is short in part because the Owls are a perfect 3-0 ATS. However, they have played an absurdly easy schedule and caught Penn State in the perfect situation (in a letdown of their own after the Alabama game). Since leaving the Big East in 2005, Temple is 0-13 away from home against BCS competition with the average loss by 36 points. I think that Edsall will have his charges ready and talent will take over in this one.

** Take #337 Arkansas (+12) over Alabama (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 24)

I am going to gladly take the points in this game. I know that Alabama's defense is one of the best in the last decade. But Arkansas and Bobby Petrino score points. That's just what they do. And in a game like this I will gladly take Arkansas' skill players over those for Alabama. The Crimson Tide have a very inexperienced quarterback calling the shots and I haven't really loved what I have seen from the Alabama signal callers (whichever one is under center). Petrino and the Razorbacks won at Georgia, at South Carolina, and at Mississippi State last year, so they aren't exactly novices on the road. This same group nearly knocked off No. 1 Florida in the Swamp in 2009 (losing 20-23) and came up just short at LSU that season as well (30-33). By my count that makes them 5-2 ATS in their last seven SEC road games (with a pair of wins and covers on the road against Texas A&M mixed in that is now 7-2 ATS) and I think that these are too many points. I had this line around 8.5 and I think that the Razorbacks will keep it within single digits.

**-Unit Play. Take #384 Arizona State (-2.5) over USC (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 24)
Note: Bump to a 3-Unit Play.

I used the Trojans as my top college football play last week when they buried Syracuse. But that play was more based on how bad the Orange (and their defense) are right now. USC has not impressed me. They barely beat a Minnesota team that subsequently lost to New Mexico State and then that Syracuse win was nothing to write home about. After three straight semi-emotional home games I am not sure that this club is ready to head on the road and face Arizona State. The Sun Devils took a tough loss last week against Illinois on the road. But I think that game got their radar up and they will play with an edge that the 3-0 Trojans, in their first game outside of their cushy home field, won't have. Coming into this year Arizona State was a solid 12-6 ATS as a home favorite and they are always tough in Tempe. They lost a heartbreaker at USC last year and I just don't think that this Trojans team is better than last year's version. I feel the opposite about Arizona State. I know that Dennis Erickson is kind of a mess. But I think Lane Kiffin is a joke and I wouldn't be stunned if his kids are completely not ready to play this week. Either way, this line is short and I will roll with the slightly undervalued home team here.

*-Unit Play. Take #364 South Carolina (-15.5) over Vanderbilt (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 24)

Look, I still think that South Carolina is legit. Steve Spurrier has been a money BURNER in his time with South Carolina and he is a perpetual underachiever. But this is a spot for them to lay the wood and I think that they will take it. Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt. They are the Duke of the SEC; they may jump up and bite a crappy team here or there but when they play against elite competition their lack of athleticism just kills them. Last year Vandy went 2-10 and lost by 18 at Kentucky, by 35 at Arkansas, by 43 at Georgia, and by 19 at Connecticut. Sure, it is a different season. But in the year prior to that their road losses came by 15, 24, 4 and 14. That is a pattern of getting it handed to you on the road. This is Vandy's first road game of the season and this group is running into a South Carolina team that should be embarrassed and motivated after they struggled with Navy. That game was a little excusable because they were in a letdown spot after the Georgia loss.


Note: All Teasers are 7-point teasers.
**.5 Unit Play. TEASER: Take #330 Georgia (-2.5) over Mississippi (12:20 p.m.) AND Take #344 Michigan (-3) over San Diego State (Noon)

* TEASER: Take #364 South Carolina (-8.5) AND Take #326 Maryland (-1.5)

* TEASER: Take #366 Mississippi State (-12.5) over Louisiana Tech (7 p.m.) AND Take #331 Bowling Green (+11) over Miami, OH (1 p.m.)

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THE GOLD SHEET'S LATE TELEPHONE SERVICE

COLLEGE FOOTBALL SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 24
1½ UNITS BOISE STATE -28 Home over Tulsa - 5:00 PM PDT game #380
SAN DIEGO STATE +10½ over Michigan - Home 9:00 AM PDT game #343
WESTERN MICHIGAN +13½ over Illinois - Home 12:30 PM PDT game #315
NEW MEXICO STATE +10 over San Jose State - Home 1:05 PM PDT game #353
FRESNO STATE -3 over Idaho - Home 2:00 PM PDT game #355
BUFFALO +9½ over Connecticut - Home 3:00 PM PDT game #358
Vanderbilt-South Carolina UNDER 49½ points - at South Carolina 4:00 PM PDT gm. #363

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SB Professor

Original NCAAF Picks Saturday

12:20 PM EST
Mississippi +10.5* (Sports Interaction has 10.5, a lot of other places have 10 but even so system recommends you buy this up to 10.5 if you're only seeing 10)

3:30 PM EST
Kansas St. +13*

8 PM EST
Colorado St. +11* (10.5s just about everywhere but because of the 2 pt. conversion 11 is a key number in college football. We don't take 1/2 pt. losses on 'dogs on * plays)

Rest of Games:
San Diego St. +10.5
Pitt +7
Temple +9
Tulane +10
Arkansas +11
New Mexico St. +10.5
Idaho +3
Buffalo +9
West Virginia +6

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David M@linsky

4* North Carolina +7

There was no hurry to land here earlier – with Georgia Tech opening in such “sexy” fashion in the eyes of the pubic, we had plenty of time to wait. Now that waiting is bringing a full +7 into play, and that is impossible to pass up with what may well be the better team in this matchup.

Yes, the Yellow Jackets have had a dynamic opening, scoring 178 points in three games, leading the nation in Points, Total Offense, Rushing and Pass Efficiency. But those games were against non-conference opponents that did not spend all that much time game-planning for an offense they were not going to see again this season. Now it is A.C.C., and a North Carolina defense with seven SR starters, plus two more SR’s on the second-unit, has seen this attack often during their careers. And note just how different their preparation is, from current HC Everett Withers -

"It's one of those offense that you've got to spend time, not game week, working on. You need to be working on it in the spring and summer, which we have. It's always one our summer prep offenses. It's always one of our spring prep offenses. We spend the time because it's so unique. I really believe our kids understand this thing."

The Tar Heels are not going to stop this offense, but they will slow it down. And one of the ways they will do that is by moving the ball and generating a lot of points themselves against an unimposing Tech defense. QB Bryn Renner has completed a sizzling 81.4 percent of his passes so far (81.4 percent); there is excellent depth at RB with Giovanni Bernard, Ryan Houston and A. J. Blue; and WR Dwight Jones has already caught 20 passes for 336 yards and four TD’s. They can expose a young defense that only has four SR starters, and 11 under-classmen on the two-deep, with the secondary particularly inexperienced, an element that leaves the back-door wide open. But we are not sure that Carolina will even have back-door moments, with the Tar Heels very alive to win this game outright.

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Gold sheet lts

1½ units boise state -28

1 unit san diego state +10½

1 unit western michigan +13½

1 unit new mexico state +10

1 unit fresno state -3

1 unit buffalo +9½

1 unit vanderbilt / s carolina under 49½

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Tony George
1* Temple
1* Tex A&M

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Greg Roberts
4* Texas A&M, Georgia

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DOUBLE DRAGON NCAA "DEAD DOG SATURDAY"

TOP
GEORGIA TECH -7 vs north carolina
GEORGIA -10 at mississippi
TEXAS A&M -4 vs oklahoma state
OKLAHOMA -19.5 vs missouri
BOISE STATE -28 vs tulsa

REGULAR
WASHINGTON -PK vs california
FLORIDA -20 at kentucky
TEXAS TECH -15.5 vs nevada
BAYLOR -20.5 vs rice
LSU -6 at west virginia

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Maddux

#316 - NCAAF - 10 units on Illinois -13
#331 - NCAAF - 20 units on Bowling Green +5.5
#344 - NCAAF - 10 units on Michigan -8.5
#366 - NCAAF - 10 units on Mississippi State -18.5
#374 - NCAAF - 10 units on Wyoming +21
#384 - NCAAF - 10 units on Arizona State -2.5
#392 - NCAAF - 10 units on North Texas +7.5

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Chase Diamond

70 Dimes TULSA +28.5 (FIRST EVER 70 DIME PLAY)

50 Dimes TEXAS A&M -4

50 Dimes WVU +6

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NCAAF
Write-Up


Saturday, September 24

Georgia won its last eight games vs Ole Miss, with underdogs covering five of last seven; Dawgs won last four visits here, but only one of four was by more than 7 points. Both coaches squarely on hot seat. Georgia is 5-7-1 in last 13 games as road favorite, 8-13-1 coming off win. Rebels covered one of last four as home dog- they lost 30-7 at Vanderbilt last week, outrushed 281-85. Not good. Georgia allowed 80 points in losses to Boise St/South Carolina. Both teams' only win is against I-AA club.

Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Cal's last seven visits to Seattle, as Bears lost last two trips here 42-10/37-23. Huskies are 4-3 as home fave under Sarkisian, after being 1-9 in last 10 tries before he was coach. Cal had an easy win over I-AA foe last week, while Washington was losing 51-38 at Nebraska squad that started three walk-ons on offensive line. Bears won only road game 36-33 in OT at Colorado, in game where Buffs outgained them by 212 yards. Since 2005, California is 4-7 as a road underdog.

SEC turned down West Virginia for membership this week, not sure that factors in here, but do know West Virginia is home dog for first time in six years; this will be a wild night in Morgantown. LSU already has two wins away from home, beating Oregon 40-27 (-1) in Dallas, then winning 19-6 at Mississippi State last week (-3.5). Mountaineers trailed Nofolk State 12-10 at half two weeks ago, then held off mediocre Maryland club 37-31 last week, getting outscored 21-10 in second half. LSU is 5-6-1 in its last twelve games as a road favorite.

Michigan coach Hoke was San Diego State's coach last two years; when Wolverines hired him, he said he would've walked all way to Ann Arbor from San Diego for this job. Betcha veteran Aztec players liked hearing that. SDSU covered five of last seven as a road dog; they struggled with both Army (14-all at half), Washington State (14-17 at half) last couple games, but won both 23-20/42-24. Michigan is 5-11 in last 16 games as a home favorite; they're +6 in turnovers, have conference opener up next.

Georgia Tech is 11-2 in last 13 games vs North Carolina, winning last six here by average score of 30-20 (3-3 vs spread); Jackets have 115 points, 986 rushing yards in two wins vs I-A opponents, with 378 yards thru air on only 10 completions (17 PA). Tar Heels covered five of last seven as road dog; soph QB Renner has unnatural poise for hia age. Underdogs covered five of last seven series games. UNC is just 7-22 on 3rd down vs I-A teams; they'll need more first downs to keep Tech offense off field.

Florida covered 10 of last 13 games as road favorite, but has Alabama up next, so possible trap game in Lexington vs Kentucky squad Gators have beaten 14 times in row, covering last four; Gators won last seven visits here, with five of seven wins by 21+ points. Wildcats had only 35 yards on ground in home loss to rival Louisville last week; UK is 3-5 as a home dog last 3+ years; they're 8-13-1 vs spread in game after last 22 losses. Florida won last three series games by average score of 51-8.

Underdogs are 5-0-1 vs spread in last six Notre Dame-Pitt games, with Irish 3-2 in last five visits here. Notre Dame has gained 432 yards a game but turned ball over 13 times in three games (-8), worst turnover ratio in country: Irish covered only one of last four as road favorite. Pitt blew big lead at Iowa last week, blowing 24-3 lead late in third quarter, losing to Hawkeyes 31-27. Panthers are 9-2 vs spread in game following last 11 losses; they're 9-7 in last 16 games as home underdog.

Home side won eight of last nine Florida State-Clemson games; FSU lost last four visits to Clemson by average score of 31-16; since 2004, State is just 8-12 as road favorites, but they're 16-8 vs spread in game following their last 24 losses. Clemson failed to cover its last three games as home dog; they're 8-6 in game following last 14 wins. Tigers still haven't led game at half (tied with Wofford, trailed Troy by 3). FSU QB Manuel was banged up last week. First road game of year for Seminoles.

Fresno State won last six games vs Idaho (4-2 vs spread) with last year's 23-20 home win only one of six by less than 10 points- they won last three visits here, 31-21/37-24/40-10, but Bulldogs are struggling so far in 2011, getting outrushed 216-84 in shaky 27-22 win over North Dakota last week- Idaho beat UND 44-14 the week before. Since 2006, Vandals are 6-10 as a home dog. Bulldogs have been outscored 58-25 in second half; they covered five of last six games as a road favorite.

UCLA/Oregon State are both struggling; Beavers switched to Mannion at QB this week, while Bruins named Brehaut starter, first time Neuheisel has named starting QB that early in week. Oregon State covered twice in last seven games as road favorite. UCLA is 4-12 as road underdog with Neuheisel, 5-9 in game following its last 14 losses. Underdog covered 7 of last 10 series games, with Bruins winning three of last four trips here. UCLA got whacked at home by Texas last week; Beavers had a bye.

Oklahoma State scored 38-36-56 points in winning last three games vs Texas A&M, with four of last five in series decided by 5 or less points; Cowboys gained 543+ yards in all three games this year, scoring 52.3 ppg in wins by 27-23-36 points- they're 7-6 in last 13 games as a dog on road. Aggies covered seven of last ten as home favorite; they won first two games this year by 32-30 points. Both sides stepping up in class in this one. Boith teams have senior QB; does that make over the play?

Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six Oregon-Arizona games, with Ducks scoring 48-44-55 points in winning last three games by 19-3-10 points. Arizona gave up 37-37 points in losing last two weeks to prolific offenses of Oklahoma State (37-14), Stanford (37-10). Over last decade, Oregon is 18-13 as road favorite; Arizona is 9-2-1 in last dozen games as a home dog. Ducks won six of last seven visits here, with wins by 3-7-38-17-35-3 points. Oregon's last two games were against cupcakes, hard to tell much they've improved since opening 40-27 loss to LSU.

USC won its last 11 games vs Arizona State, winning last five visits to Tempe by 5-20-10-20-6 points- this is first time since '00 Sun Devils are favored over USC. ASU is 12-7 as home favorite under Erickson. First road game for Trojan squad that had only three takeaways in three home wins, by 2-9-21 points- over last decade, they're 6-3 as road underdog. ASU came close to beating Trojans last two years, losing 14-9/34-33; in last six series games, underdogs are 4-1-1 against the spread.