9-24-11

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pocket aces
4 Georgia Tech -6'
2 Utah St -9
3 OR St -4'
2 Clemson -2'

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PREDICTION MACHINE

TOP PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL - Atlanta Falcons
NCAA- East Carolina Pirates


ECU
Oregon
Ohio
UCLA
Colorado

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Mark Lawrence's Weekend card

Late Phones -
5* Game 342 - West Virginia (+6)
3* Game 331 - Bowling Green (+3.5)
3* Game 339 - California (+1)

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Nelly's Green Sheet

RATING 5 TEXAS TECH (-201⁄2) over Nevada

RATING 4 KANSAS STATE (+13) over Miami, FL

RATING 3 SOUTH CAROLINA (-151⁄2) over Vanderbilt

RATING 2 SYRACUSE (-3) over Toledo

RATING 2 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+24) over Michigan St

RATING 1 CALIFORNIA (+3) over Washington

RATING 1 MARYLAND (-9) over Temple

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CKO

10 *UTAH ST. over Colorado St. Late Score Forecast: *UTAH STATE 35 - Colorado State 14
10 GEORGIA over *Ole Miss Late Score Forecast: GEORGIA 34 - *Ole Miss 13
10 LSU over *West Virginia Late Score Forecast: LSU 28 - *West Virginia 13
10 *AUBURN over Florida Atlantic Late Score Forecast: *AUBURN 49 - Florida Atlantic 6

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The Gold Sheet (newsletter)

KEY RELEASES
OHIO by 5 over Rutgers

MIAMI-FLORIDA by 25 over Kansas State

ARMY by 15 over Ball State

BUFFALO by 2 over Connecticut

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RICK NEEDHAM

Colorado at Ohio State (-14.0) Sept. 24, 3:30, ABC
Here’s The Deal … The play of Ohio State has gotten progressively worse this month, with the emotional offseason and spate of suspensions appearing to catch up with the mighty program. After blasting Akron in the opener, the Buckeyes narrowly escaped Toledo in Week Two and then were quieted by Miami in a toothless 24-6 loss. The result? OSU has been exiled from the Top 25 for the first time in seven years. Swimming in uncharted water, the scarlet and gray are hoping to regroup this week in time for October and the start of the Big Ten schedule. Colorado broke through a week ago for its first win of the year, doubling up rival Colorado State, 28-14. It also marked the first victory in the career of Jon Embree, who’s diligently trying to resurrect his alma mater. A win the Shoe, which last happened in 1971, would provide the head coach with some much-desired goodwill and talking points to young recruits.
From The Buff's Perspective: As long as the Ohio State offense continues to go south, Colorado will have a chance of authoring the upset. The Buckeyes threw for only 35 yards in Miami, and failed to cross the goal line. The Buffs defense ranks No. 12 nationally in sacks, getting pressure from the likes of DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe and linebackers Josh Hartigan and Douglas Rippy. If the D can keep things close, QB Tyler Hansen, RB Rodney Stewart and WR Paul Richardson are capable of pushing Colorado over the hump. Four of Hansen’s seven touchdown passes have gone to the big-play Richardson. And Stewart will be running with a little extra motivation as he returns to the campus that rests a mere 25 miles from his Westerville, OH hometown.

From The Buckeyes Sideline: While the Buckeyes have issues at this juncture of the season, they’ll still be able to dominate their visitors at the line of scrimmage. They’ll simply be too big and physical at the point of contact, especially when the Buffaloes have the ball. Ohio State will toss aside the Colorado blockers, getting an inside push from John Simon and Johnathan Hankins. If the Colorado linemen aren’t paying attention, linebackers Andrew Sweat and Etienne Sabino are liable to zip past them and into the backfield. Despite all of the offensive woes for the Buckeyes, they did get a boost from the return of RB Jordan Hall, who repeatedly snapped off long-gainers on Saturday night. He and Carlos Hyde figure to be the chief beneficiaries of Ohio State’s edge up front.

What To Watch Out For: So what will Ohio State head coach Luke Fickell do about his situation at quarterback? There are no easy answers, even if he’s getting a ton of input from the fan base. Senior Joe Bauserman brings experience, but very little upside. True freshman Braxton Miller has the far higher ceiling, yet remains very raw. Some composite of the two is likely, with the rookie’s role gradually increasing over time. The Buckeyes will not be a great passing team in 2011, so preparing for 2012 becomes a priority. BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: It won’t be pretty or particularly easy, but Ohio State will find a way to send Colorado home with its third loss in the first four games. The Buckeyes will essentially out physical the Buffs, creating holes for Hall and Hyde, while making Stewart earn every yard. The host’s lack of balance and pop on offense will keep this game somewhat tight throughout. However, Colorado’s quest to break through and take a lead in the second half will be turned away by the Ohio State D. I'll TAKE OHIO STATE - TO WIN ... AND TO "BEAT THE SPREAD!"

RICK'S "HOT-SPOT" PLAYS

CINCINNATI (-7.0) OVER N.C. STATE
MICHIGAN (-20.0) OVER SAN DIEGO STATE
EASTERN MICHIGAN ( 29.0) OVER PENN STATE
RUTGERS (-4.0) OVER OHIO UNIVERSITY
UCONN (-8.0) OVER BUFFALO

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INDIAN COWBOY

4* NEVADA +16.5

4* PATRIOTS/BILLS Over 54
7* TB BUCCANEERS -1.5

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Norm Hitzges

·******** Nebraska -23 vs Wyoming
·******** Utah State -6.5 vs Colorado State
·******** California +3 vs Washington
·******** South Florida -28 vs UTEP
·******** Notre Dame -6.5 vs Pitt

Single Plays
·******** UCF +2.5 vs BYU
·******** Alabama -12.5 vs Arkansas
·******** Ohio +4 vs Rutgers
·******** Toledo +3 vs Syracuse
·******** Georgia -10 vs Mississippi
·******** SMU -22.5 vs Memphis
·******** Fresno -6 vs Idaho
·******** Auburn -33 vs Florida Atlantic
·******** VaTech -18.5 vs Marshall
·******** Texas A&M -3 vs Oklahoma State
·******** Baylor -20.5 vs Rice

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Jeff Scott Sports

6 UNIT PLAY

TEXAS A&M -4 over Oklahoma State: In my Big 12 preview I stated that the Aggies will have a great year and challenge Oklahoma for the league crown and I will not back off that statement now. The Aggies offense has been great this year as they have put up 41.45 ppg and 486 ypg, but it is the defense that has reminded me of the day of the Wrecking Crew. Coming into the year I felt the A&M defense was a top 10 unit and they have shown how tough they are by allowing just 10.5 ppg and 267 ypg thus far. Granted they haven't really played anyone yet, but make NO MISTAKE this is a very formidable defense that returned 30 of 36 lettermen from last year's team that allowed 22 ppg and 364 ypg. The OSU offense will be their biggest test all year long as the Cowboys come in averaging a whopping 52.3 ppg and 601 ypg. The OSU offense is strong , but they haven't really played anyone either just like A&M and this will be their toughest defense they will have faced so far. The OSU offense has also been a bit mistake prone in the early going a Weedon may have 8 TD passes, but with 6 INT's and they are 93rd in the Nation in penalties. OK we have establishes that OSU has the edge on offense, but here is where the tide really changes as the Aggies do get a BIG edge on the defensive side of the ball. I already went through the strong Aggies defense so let's look at OSU's stop troops. The Cowboys defense comes in ranked 80th in ypg allowed (417 ypg) and 64th in points allowed (27 ppg) and just like their offense piled up numbers vs bad teams their defense has not faced top notch opponents either. A good gauge of this bad defense was last week when they knocked out G.J. Kinne, who is one of the best QB's in the nation, after just 3 series and they still allowed the Hurricane to put up 30 points after he left. Last year Kinne was also this teams leading rusher yet OSU allowed them 365 yards on the ground. Both teams will get their fair share of points in this one, so it will come down to who can get more stops and tat edge has to go to A&M. Last year they led by 14 at the half, but 5 2nd half TO's did them in as they lost 38-35 on the last play of the game. Today they get revenge as their defense comes up with enough big plays to help them to a 10 point win.

5 UNIT PLAY

EAST CAROLINA -14 over UAB: Last year UAB went 4-8 and were expecting a better showing this year as they had 16 starters back, including QB Bryan Ellis and 9 back on defense. Well that hasn't happened as they have come out 0-2 and have been outscored by 88-10 in the process. Last week was particularly bad for them as they were blasted 49-10 at home as 12 point faves vs Tulane. UAB was thoroughly beaten in that games as they were outgained 540-193 and out-first downed 28-10. That was not a strong Tulane team that crushed them last week. Now they must take on an East Carolina team that may be 0-2, but they did play very well vs in those games vs S. Carolina and Va. Tech. ECU's defensive weakness is their run “D”, but UAB can't run as they have grabbed just 60 ypg on the ground thus far. ECU's offense hasn't really gotten on track just year, but this is an explosive group and should have good success vs a UAB defense that has allowed 525 ypg and 44 ppg so far this year. ECU has won the last 4 in this series and by and average of 16.8 ppg. This one will be much worse as UAB just doesn't have enough play makers on either side of the ball to stay close in this one.


4 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Bowling Green/ Miami-Oh Under 52.5: The Bowling Green offense has been rolling in the early going, but putting up 39 ppg and 521 ypg vs the likes of Wyoming, Morgan State and Idaho is not a difficult task. The Miami defense will be their toughest test so far, as the Red Hawks have allowed just 345 ypg and 23 ppg so far and that was vs Minnesota and Missouri, on the road. Coming into the year I expect this group to be good as they returned 9 defensive starters from a group that allowed just 22 ppg and 339 ypg last year. They should be able to keep the B. Green Scoring down. On the other side the miami offense has really struggled, putting up just 14.5 ppg and 337 ypg and this despite they have brought back 8 starters from last year's team. That attack by Miami will be facing a very improved Falcon defense today. Last year BG allowed 34 ppg and 429 ypg, but with 7 starters back this year they have allowed just 18.7 ppg and 29o ypg. Just one team in this game can score, but they whil be going up against a very tough defense, while the team that can't score will also be going up against a tough defense and to me that's a recipe for a low scoring game. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Under is 46-18 when a team (Miami) playing a conference game in the first month of the season, is off a season in which they finished the year with 4 or more straight wins.


3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Tulane +10 over DUKE: I had to wipe my eyes and check this line a gain when I first saw it. Duke is a double digit favorite? And over a team that is off a 39 point road win as a double digit loss no less. Duke is an improved team and they did shock Boston College on the road last week, but they also did lose at home in the opener to Richmond, which is an FCS team. The Duke offense brought back 8 starters and they were to be very improved over last years group, but they have struggled so far putting up just 18.3 ppg on the year and just 17 ppg vs FBS foes. Tulane's offenses has improved this year as they have put up 33 ppg and 393 ypg in the early going. The defense for the Devils has not been that great this year, allowing 28.7 ppg and 373 ypg so far and they should have problems with this solid offense of the Green Wave. Duke is not a blowout kind of team and they really don't play well at home as they are just 3-9-1 ATS as a home fav the last 12 years. Look for the Tulane offense to keep it close vs a Duke team that may suffer a letdown after last weeks upset win vs Boston College. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Duke is just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 home games vs Non-conference opponents, including 0-2 ATS this year.


IDAHO +3 over Fresno State: Common opponents can tell a good deal about a matchup and it's very evident here. Both of these teams played North Dakota on their home fields and while both teams won, Idaho played much much better in their game. The Vandals won by 30 and outgained their FCS foe by 222 yds, while Fresno State won by just 5 and they were actually outgained in the game by 4 yards. Idaho did struggle vs their two FBS foes they faced, but then again so did Fresno. Fresno's offense returned just 4 starters this year and they have been solid putting up 25.7 ppg and 327 ypg so far, but it has been their defense that has failed as they have allowed 33 ppg and 393 ypg. Idaho brought back 8 starters on defense and they have struggled a bit this year, but the strength of the Fresno offense is their run game (195 ypg) and the strength of the Idaho run defense is is their run defense (118 ypg). The stats are pretty much even, but Idaho gets the edge on defense, the edge on special teams, plus they are playing at home with revenge for last years 3 point road loss to the Bulldogs. I see Idaho returning the favor with a 3 point win of their own


Kansas State/ Miami Under 47.5: The Wildcats bring the nations leading scoring defense, while the Miami defense will only get stronger now that they have their key parts back The Canes defense is top 3 in the ACC and they have a ton of speed on that side of the ball. Just ask Ohio State, who was able to muster just 209 yards and 6 points vs them. They should hold down a KSU offense that put up 37 points last week vs Kent State, but just 10 points in their season opener vs Eastern Kentucky. The Miami offense is very good with Jacory Harris back, but he can struggle when faced with a good fast defense and KSU has one. Both defenses will finish in the top ten this year and I see these two offenses having problems scoring in this one today. Look for a game of around 40 points. KEY TRENDS--- The under is 5—1 in KSU's last 6 games in September, while the Under is 16-6 when Miami plays a home game with a total set at 45.5 to 49.


2 UNIT PLAYS

Toledo +2.5 over SYRACUSE: I firmly believe that Toledo is the best team in the MAC and while they did lose big to Boise last week, they showed how tough they really can be with a 5 point loss at Ohio State 2 weeks ago. Toledo was outgained big by Boise last week, but in that OSU game they actually outgained the Buckeyes by 36 yards. Syracuse is 2-1 on the year but a closer look shows us that they needed a miracle comeback to beat Wake Forest, then they barely beat FCS foe Rhode Island, beat for losing by 21 at USC. The Rockets have too much fire power for the Orange to handle in this one as they pull the outright upset. KEY TREND--- HC Tim Beckman is 7-0 ATS off a loss of 17 or more as coach of Toledo.


Florida/ Kentucky Under 44: The Kentucky offense is one of the worst in the nation as they are 103rd in total offense (247 ypg) and 91st in scoring (19.3 ppg) and they have put up those numbers vs teams that just don't have great defenses like the one they will face today. The Cats will be facing a Florida defense that is loaded and playing very well for a team that has brought back just 4 starters on that side of the ball. The Florida defense is 6th in scoring (8.7 ppg) and 6th in total defense (209.3 ypg). Granted their first 2 opponents were not very good, but this defense had a big game last week vs a powerful Tennessee offense as they held the Vols to just 279 ypg and 23 points. On the other side the Kentucky defense has not played they bad as they are 21st in total defense (315 ypg ) and 12th in points allowed at 13.3 ppg. The line suggests that Kentucky will get about 13 points in this one, while I just don't see them getting more than 10. Florida is not really a team looking to run up scores and I feel this Kentucky defense will come up with enough plays to keep Florida in the low thirties. I see no more than 38 in this one.


1 UNIT PLAYS

WYOMING +21.5 over Nebraska: Last week Nebraska beat Washington 51-38, but showed some weakness in this defense and this week they have to take on a Wyoming team that can put up some points. Nebraska is in a tough look-a-head spot as they have their first ever Big 10 Conference game up next on the road vs Wisconsin. I see the Cowboys being able to keep this one around 2 TD's.


Louisiana Tech +19 over MISSISSIPPI STATE: Classic sandwich game here and this would have been a higher rated play if it weren't that Louisiana Tech weren't just 6-20 ATS as non-conf dogs of 4 or more. I still like this game as Miss state is off their huge battle with LSU last week and they have a huge road game with Georgia on deck. I do not see them being up for this one especially vs a LA Tech team that is a bit peeved after blowing a big lead vs Houston Last week. LA Tech will be more focused in this one and they should be able to keep the margin at 14 points or less.

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Cappers Access
Georgia -10
Pittsburgh +7
Texas A&M -4
Arizona U +15-

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Totals 4U
Top Plays
Ark/Ala OVER 51-
NC/GaT OVER 57-
Flor/Kent OVER 44

Regular Plays
EMich/PennSt UNDER 45-
LSU/WVa UNDER 47-
ND/Pitt OVER 56
FlorSt/Clem UNDER 48
OKSt/A&M OVER 67-
USC/ArizSt UNDER 54

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Platinum Plays
Premium Picks
Oregon
Oregon St

500K Plays
GaTech
Florida

Regular Plays
S.Flor
Illinois
Mississippi
SD State
Clemson
Baylor
USC
Indiana

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Rainman

10* Texas A&M
5* Miami fl
5* Florida
3* Georgia
3* Baylor
1* E. Carolina
1* S Carolina

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Don Wallace Sports - FREE PLAY


(321) KANSAS STATE (+13, un47.5)
(322) MIAMI (-13, ov47.5)
Saturday, September 24nd, 2011, 2:30 PM CST
Take: (321) KANSAS STATE
Analysis: After a emotionally charged win last week vs Ohio St., Miami could be in letdown mode this week. Kansas State is often an overlooked team in the Big XII but this has been a consistently solid program and the recent record as an underdog is impressive. Miami's offense still has a tendency to be turnover prone. Laying double digits with Jacory Harris may prove to be a little much. Couple that with their 12-22 ATS record as a host and Kansas St. +13 suddenly appears to have some real value. Kansas St. beat up on a Kent St. team last week that many feel will be competive in the MAC this season. Bill Syder is 8-5 ATS when wearing the collar in the past 2 seasons has us with the Wildcats here. KANSAS STATE 24 MIAMI 31