10-8-11

[timbob]

Northcoast Totals
3* Under Louisville
3* Over Baylor
3* Under Nwestern

Small College
3* W Mich
3* UL Monroe
3* Temple

Marquee
S Miss
Kansas St

[timbob]

Arlon Sports

3% SMU
3% Nebraska
3% Florida Atlantic
2% Washington
2% Mississippi
2% Western Kentucky

[timbob]

RANDY BRUCE

5* LSU -13
5* Vanderbilt/Alabama Over 41.5
5* Georgia -2.5
5* Marshall/Central Florida Over 43

[timbob]

Vincent Rizzo Sports

Oklahoma -9.5

Free play,
Iowa +3.5

[timbob]

POINTWISE PHONES:

4* Nevada, Wyoming

3* West Virginia, Bama, UCF, Utah, Tenn, Northwestern, Pitt, Georgia Tech

2* Oklahoma

[timbob]

Joey Cassano

Maryland +14
Texas +10.5
Eastern Michigan +21

[timbob]

PITT VIPER

ROT# 902 - 8:05pm - Detroit/Texas UNDER 7.5 (-105)
Final Score: Detroit 4 - Texas 2

[timbob]

Al DeMarco
Saturday
15 Dime Play on Tennessee as the home underdog tontght against Georgia. As I release this selecticon at 6:00 PM Pacific on Friday evening, the Vols are +2 1/2 at the majorety of sportsbooks both in Vegas and offshore. This is one of those cases where I would go ahead and buy up the 1/2 point on Tennessee as insurance, making the Vols a +3 point dog. And if this line moves to +3, I'd still buy the hook up to +3 1/2.

I'm a firm believer in going with your initial gut instinct. Last Saturday, Wisconsin was the team I circled when I first looked at the lines. Thought about going off the Badgers a few times during the week but I always kept coming back to them and they delivertd as my Big Ten Game of the Year in a 48-17 demolition of Nebraska in their conference opener.

This week I immediately circled two teams, Oregon on Thursday and Tennessee today. I used the Ducks as my Pac-12 Game of the Year on Thursday over Cal and I'm coming today with another 15 dimer on the Volunteers - a play just as strong as Wisky and Oregon, one that matches my highest-rated release of the season - as my SEC Game of the Year in an upset of Georgia.

This has been a home-dominated series of late as the host has won four in a row by an average of 21.5 points. Today the Volunteers welcome the Bulldogs to Rocky Top seeking revenge for last season's 41-14 loss between the hedges in Athens.

Biggest reason I'm on the Vols, other than the face they're playing at home in revenge, is unheralded quarterback Tyler Bray. Tell me, when is the last time you heard anyone talk about this guy, if ever? Yet, the sophomore is sevencth in the nation in both yards per game (332) and passing effeciency (68%) with 14 touchdowns versus two interceptions through four games, a pace that is even better than Peyton Manning's in the same time period way back in 1997.

Bray's performance, plus the steady production of runing back Tauren Poole (4.5 ypc) is the reason Tennessee is tied for No. 1 in the nation on third down conversions with a 62.1% success rate. Of course let's give credit where credit is due: Georgia is ranked second in the nation in third down defense allowing just 25.4% conversions. But, who have the Bulldogs played?

Georgia opened the season with a 35-21 loss to visiting Boise State at the Georgia Dome. They followed with a 45-42 loss in Athens against an inconsistent South Carolina squad. Mark Richt's team has since won three in a row against a cupcake (59-0 over Coast Carolina), an also-ran (27-13 at Ole Miss) and an underachiever (24-10 over visiteng Miss State). It's not like they've been playing LSU and Bama every weekend. And other than Boise's Kellen Moore (3 TDs in opener), what quarterback have they faced that can throw the ball like Bray?

Like the way Tennessee rebounded from its first loss of the season, a closer-than-expected 33-23 setback at the Swamp against Florida, to crush overmatched Buffalo 41-10 last week behind Bray's 21-of-30, 342-yard, 4 TD performance plus 101 yards from Poole on 17 carries. Also like the way they dominated Cincinnati (Bray passed for 405 yards and 4 TDs) at home 45-23 before traveling to Gainesville. Good to see a team that doesn't get caught looking ahead or in a letdown spot.

The Volunteers are not a strong defensive team so putting some pressure on Georgia QB Aaron Murray is key. He's already been sacked 13 times in five games.

The Vols have a brutal schedule ahead with No. 1 LSU coming to town next week with a visit to No. 2 Alabama set for the following Saturday. With No. 18 South Carolina (home) and Arkansas (road) still to come, they might not win more than seven or eight games this season after going 6-6 a year ago. But this is a winnable contest against a Georgia pass defense that's already been exploited by Boise's Moore.

The wrong team is favored in Knoxville, where the Dawgs - who are 7-10 in their last 17 games outside of Athens and 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall - have not won since 2005.

Final projected score: Tennessee 37, Georgia 30

[timbob]

Craig Davis
Saturday's Plays...


50 Dime Play on the IOWA HAWKEYES agatnst Penn State. The Hawkeyes are currently listed as a 4 1/2 point road dog in the books offshore and in Vegas. (buy the 1/2 point if this line drops below +4 1/2).





30 Dime Play on the VIRGINIA TECH against Miami (FL). The Hokies are currently listed as a 7 1/2 point chalk in the books offshore and in Vegas. (buy the 1/2 point unless this line goes drops to -6 1/2 or goes up to -8).





20 Dime 2-Team/7-Point Teaser Play on Ohio University and Western Michigan. As I release this selectIon, Ohio University is -8 1/2 and Western Michigan is -10 in Vegas and offshore. Using the seven points in a two-teamer in football, decrecase the Bobcats to -1 1/2 and reduce the Broncos to -3 to complete the teaser. So, in essence you're playing Ohio at -1 1/2 and the Western Michigan at -3. As always shop around for the best price available.







10 Dime Play on the AUBURN TIGERS against Arkansas. The Tigers are currently listed as a between a 10 point road dog in the books offshere and in Vegas. (buy the 1/2 point insurance at anywhere from +9 1/2 to +11).





10 Dime Play on the KANSAS STATE WILDCATS against Missouri. As I go live, the Wildcats are currently listed as a 4 point home dog in the books offshore and in Vegas. (buy the 1/2 point at anywhere from +2 1/2 to +4).





IOWA HAWKEYES (BUY THE 1/2 POINT IF THE LINE DROPS BELOW +4 1/2) --- Easiest bet on the board today is the Iowa Hawkeyes plus the points over the Penn State Nittany Lions. Tell me, aside from an above average defense, what does Penn State bring to the table? They are a below average offenstve team (they scored a measly 16 points against Indiana and 14 against Temple) and they don't excite me with their special teams. Basically, if this defense doesn't keep Penn State in the game, they're in for a long afternoon.




As for Iowa, they've had a couple of blowouts and a couple of exciting games to start the 2011 campaign... one which resulted in a come-from-behind win and another that resulted in an overtime loss to arch-rival Iowa State. The win (over Pittsburgh) was incredibly impressive for a couple of reasons. First, this is a good Pittsburgh defense that held South Florida to 20 points and Notre Dame to 15 points... so scoring 31 is quite impressive. Secondly, when you fall behind by three scores in the second half, the defense knows you must throw to get back into the game. And even knowing that Iowa was going to throw the ball, the Panthers could do nothing about it. That's how good James Vandenburg was that day.



As good as the Iowa passing game has proven to be, they also have a running game that a lot of teams in the country would like to have. RB Marcus Coker is tearing up the stat sheet right now and even against Penn State's solid run defense, I expect him to be a difference maker. In his last game against UL Monroe, Coker rushed 18 times for 113 yards and two scores while catching two passes for 18 yards. Coker also torched arch-rival Iowa State to the tune of 35 carries for 140 yards and two touchdowns (in triple overtime). What I'm saying is... the Hawkeyes are multi-faceted on offense and can beat you on the ground or through the air.



Have you looked at the history of this series recently? It seems in the Big 10 as if there are a lot of one-sided series that last for a while. Ohio State has owned Michigan for nearly a decade. Wisconsin has had its way with Purdue. Illinois seems to have Indiana's number. Well, when Iowa plays Penn State, let's just say the Nittany Lions dread seeing this team on the schedule. Iowa has won three straight and eight of the last nine, and it doesn't seem to matter the venue or what Penn State is ranked. Iowa has also covered six of the last seven in this series and although I realize it doesn't matter which team is ranked higher, I actually believe Iowa is the more talented team. Take the Hawkeyes plus the points as your top play of the day.





VIRGINIA TECH --- (buy the 1/2 point unless this line goes up to -6 1/2 or up to -8) --- This release is a lot more about my lack of confidence in Miami more than anything great about Virginia Tech. Remember, it was me last week that gave you Clemson plus the points over Virginia Tech in this very same spot, but today I'm actually sticking with the Hokies at home and relying on their defense to keep Jacory Harris and the pitiful Miami Hurricanes in check.



Much like the analysis on the game above (Iowa), one team has owned the other in recent history. Virginia Tech has beaten Miami six of their last eight meetings dating back to 2003, including last year's 31-17 "upset" in south Florida. But even when Miami does get fortunate enough to win, they don't cover. V. Tech has covered five straight and nine of their last 10 in this series. No matter how you slice it, the Hokies (who are now pissed off after last week's embarrassing loss) are a team that Miami doesn't really want to see on their schedule.



I watched Miami shut down Ohio State a few weeks ago and I was convinced that the 'Canes defense was pretty darn good. But upon further review, Ohio State sucks... they have one of the worst college offenses I have ever seen and Miami should be ashamed that they even allowed six points. Miami will have trouble with Virginia's lengthy receivers and with the size their offensive line possecsses. The Hokie crowd will also play a big factor in keeping Miami's shaky offense off balance. Take the Hokies minus the 6 1/2 (after you buy the 1/2 point) to win by 10 or more.





2-TEAM/7-POINT TEASER --- (OHIO UNIVERSITY AND WESTERN MICHIGAN) --- A standard teaser is 6 points, but because of the Western Michigan line getting up to -10, I want to tease this thing down to -3 instead of -4, just for my own peace of mind. And it also allows me to tease Ohio down to -1 1/2, and if they happen to get into a tight game and win by one, the worst I do is push on that part of the teaser but can still win if Western Michigan does their job.



Two conferences that I follow closely, the Big Ten and the MAC, offer the best value on this Saturday, but the best way to wager on these two teams is to tease them down as both teams are favorites of more than a touchdown. Western Michigan is back on track after a couple of early-season losses to Michigan and Illinois from the Big 10. The Michigan loss was on the road in a game that they actually held a 10-7 lead late in the second quarter and were ready to score again to make it 17-7. Instead, a first down pass from Alex Carder was tipped by an unblocked blitzer and the ball was batted into the air. It somehow fell into the arms of another Michigan linebacker and he followed an entourage of blockers 97 yards for a touchdown.



Instead of 17-7 WMU it was 14-10 Michigan and the momentum had shifted. The Wolverines would take that momentum to a 34-10 win in a game that clearly should have worked out difeerently. Two weeks later they would lose a tough 23-20 decision to Illinois in Champagne because they had a defensive breakdown late in that game. Last week they went to UConn and blew a 14-point lead but came back to score two touchdowns of their own for a 38-31 upset win.



Today they come back home (in conference) to face a Bowling Green team that has NO defense. Not only does BG possess a swiss cheese defense (with a lot of holes) they didn't play nearly as daunting a schedule as Western Michigan. The Falcons toughest game was last week in Morgantown, and it's not surprising the Mountaineers whipped them up and down the field to the tune of a 55-10 final. Western Michigan probably won't beat them that badly, but all I'm asking for today is a three-point win at the very least. This should be able to be accomplished in their sleep.



Ohio University is off to a 4-1 start behind dazzling QB Tyler Tettleton, son of former Major League Baseball catcher Mickey Tettleton. Tettleton has 12 touchdown passes vs. just one INT on the season, which has helped the Bobcats to their early-season success. Not only that, but this team is running the ball well and they aren't turning it over. If they continue to do these things, there's no doubt in my mind that they easily take care of business against a struggling 1-4 Buffalo team.



The Bulls have had trouble moving the ball this year, whether on the ground or in the air, and QB Chazz Anderson has already been sacked 16 times in 5 games, throwing three TDs and three INTs. Ohio HC Frank Solich knows how to take a team's weakness and exploit it so that it will benefit his team. He rarely loses to teams with less talent than his, and in this case, Buffalo simply isn't as talented as the Bobcats. I honestly think Ohio will win and cover the 8 points, but I'm playing it safe and going with the 7-point teaser.





AUBURN TIGERS --- (BUY THE 1/2 POINT ANYWHERE FROM +9 1/2 TO +11) --- I'm sorry, but I think it's absolutely asinine that the defending champs are getting this many points two weeks in a row. First, Vegas lists South Carolina as 10-point favorites over Auburn, and the Tigers proceed to play the best defense they've played all year in a 16-13 SU road win. Fast-forward a week and we're in the same situation, as if Vegas didn't learn their lesson last week. Granted, Arkansas probably has a slightly better offense than South Carolina, but they can't stop anyone either, so it kinda balances out. Either way, Arkansas deserves to be a 10-point favorite over very few teams until they can prove they can stop someone.



The only way the Hogs cover this number is if the Tigers commit multiple turnovers, which is possible but not likely. The country doesn't respect Auburn the same as they did a year ago, because they're obviously not as good as they were last year, but this team still returned plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Home game or not, I don't think Arkansas has enough defense to keep anyone from scoring enough points to NOT stay within 10. Plus, Auburn's defense really impressed me last week against a usually high-scoring offense in South Carolina. I'll take my chances with the Tigers getting the points in Fayetteville.





KANSAS STATE --- (BUY THE 1/2 POINT ANYWHERE FROM +2 1/2 TO +4) --- Either this is the biggest "trap game" on the board or Vegas just hasn't been doing their homework. And since I don't believe in trap games, I'm gonna assume Vegas just missed on this one... but they don't often do that. The Wildcats have impressed me in back-to-back weeks, going to Miami and winning a 28-24 decision while following that up with an impressive 36-35 win over previously-unbeaten Baylor. They forced Robert Griffin into his first INT of the year that set up the game-winning field goal.



Missouri struggled earlier in the year with Miami, Oh, winning 17-6 and then dropped a 37-30 decision to Arizona State and a 38-28 decision to Oklahoma. Granted, they played better against OU than many thought, but they are clearly trending downward with two straight losses. Kansas State, meanwhile, is unbeaten on the year, playing at home, and ranked... yet they're underdogs. Like I said, either this is the biggest trap game of the year or Vegas underestimated the Wildcats. I'm playing the Wildcats to win this game at home over Missouri.

[timbob]

Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
75 Dime play on the Missouri Tigers agatnst the Kansas State Wildcats. As I release this selecction at 7 am Eastern, Missouri is currently listed as a 4 point chalk.



This line jumped off the board when I was looking over today's slate. I've been high on K-State since they went down to South Florida and took care of a solid Hurricanes team. They followed that up with an imprestive upset win against a very good Baylor team. So what in the hell are the Wildcats doing as a 4 point dog against what looks like a beatable Missouri team?



First off, let's begin by stating a simple fact: Oddsmakers aren't stupid. They didn't install Missouri as a 4-point road favorite by accident. So what does this line tell us? It tells us that the guys who know their $hit are expecting a major letdown for this K-State team today at home. And why not? Following back-to-back huge upset wins, maintaining this extremely high level of play is going to be next to impossible for a good, but currently overrated Wildcats bunch.



Moreover, I expect BIG things from Missouri coming off an impressive (albeit losing) effort at Oklahoma. That loss definately built confidence, confidence that coach Pinkel surely used as a springboard during their bye week. Given the extra time to prepare, I'm confident the Tigers will have the answer for what is a one-dimenscional Wildcats offense. Most important stat of the day: Mizzu is surrendering just 87 rushing yards per game on just 2.5 yards per carry! With an excellent set of linebackers, Collin Klein will have little room to work with this afternoon.



Finally, although both teams have won their L3 games ATS, Missouri's covers at Arizona State and at Oklahoma are more impressive. Miami was overrated and Baylor was in a tough spot situateonally. The bottom line is this line is begging for Kansas State money and I for one am not taking the bait. Bettors who jump aboard the Wildcats arrived late to the party and will pay the price in this prime letdown spot. Missouri is better prepared, more balanced, and more than capable of stopping the run-based K-State offense. Lay it with Missouri over Kansas State Saturday.

[timbob]

From the Real Time (with Bill Maher) Animal:

Saturday free pick is 3* San Diego State +5:

San Diego State is off a bye week and more importantly have two NFL future draft picks in their backfield in QB Ryan Lindley and RB Ronnie Hillman. Lindley has an 8-1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions so far while Hillman is averaging 151 yards per game at 6.2 a carry with eight touchdowns. Obviously the TCU is in a rebuilding stage. We are accustomed to seeing the Frogs in the top five in total defense, a position they've occupied three straight years. Its alarming to see them at #90 in the category this year. TCU allowed a combined 763 passing yards to Baylor and SMU in two losses. San Diego State is no pushover at Qualcomm Stadium, where they are 8-1 SU in their last nine. They only lost at TCU last year by five points when the Frogs were a powerhouse with Andy Dalton and company. The Aztecs are 9-2 ATS as a conference underodg of 10 points or less. Plus they are 7-2 ATS off a SU loss of 21 points or more, which they experienced at Michigan two weeks ago. Added is the fact 3-1 teams at home in game #5 off a loss are 14-3 SU, 11-5 ATS. FYI: TCU is 5-0 'OVER' this year and both of these teams have issues. But I like the fact SD State is a home underdog off a bye week and coming off a lopsided loss, their first defeats of the season.

[timbob]

Northcoast

5* Ga Tech
4* Ariz st
4* Wyoming
4* georgia
4* Northwestern
3* Alabama
3* Arkansas
3* Va Tech

[Mr. IWS]

spartan

triple dime Wyoming +10.5

[Mr. IWS]

Alatex

Superplay= Florida Atlantic +4

[Mr. IWS]

Trushel

Top play on Wyoming +12