11-20-11

[Mr. IWS]

New Guys!

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[Mr. IWS]

doc's

5-detroit-7
4-miami-2
4-giants-4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Today's CFL Picks

Edmonton at BC

The Eskimos look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road playoff games. Edmonton is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+6 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 20 Time Posted: 11:00 p.m. EST (11/17)

Game 491-492: Hamilton at Winnipeg (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 110.022; Winnipeg 115.203 Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 5; 48 Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 3 1/2; 51 Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-3 1/2); Under

Game 493-494: Edmonton at BC (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 115.704; BC 118.468 Dunkel Line: BC by 3; 55 Vegas Line: BC by 6 1/2; 50 Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+6 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Week 11 NFL Trends & Angles

Well, our feature angle did very well last week, as the two teams coming off a bye that had won their last games before the bye both got blown out (Detroit, Minnesota), meaning that our angle that said to fade these teams was a perfect 2-0 ATS. Unfortunately, the rest of our angles were a mixed bag, mostly of the negative variety.
This week, our feature angle has to do with the contest between the San Diego Chargers and the Chicago Bears. These are two teams heading in opposite directions, as the Bears have suddenly won four straight games to thrust themselves into a playoff spot as of right now, while the Chargers have lost four straight both straight up after a 4-1 start to fall behind the Oakland Raiders in the AFC West.
With Chicago being home for this contest, it should be a cakewalk for the Bears, right? Well, would we be talking about this game if it were that simple?

Play on any non-conference underdog coming off of four of more straight up loss (103-72-1, 58.9% ATS since 1986): We went back a long ways for this one, but it was worth it as this trend kept winning year after year as we kept on back-testing it. Remember that non-conference games are the least important games on a team's schedule in terms of playoff tiebreakers, so teams don't tend to play as intensely in these contests as they do in conference games. Now, if their opponent is on a losing streak, there is the full blown potential of a genuine breather alert, and as you can see, the dogs have mostly taken advantage. The one qualifier this week is the ice cold San Diego Chargers +3½ at the Bears.

Play against any favorite that just defeated a good team and is now facing a bad team (38-24-1, 61.3% ATS since 2002): For the purposes of our Trends & Angles, a good team is defined as a team that has won at least 12 of its previous 18 games while a bad team is defined as a team that has won no more than six of its previous 18 games. This angle is like the very definition of the Letdown Theory, as teams that just put a lot of energy into beating good teams often take a breather when they are favored over a bad team the following week. This angle has turned up four times this season and it is 4-0 ATS after Miami's easy win at Kansas City in Week 9. That angle returns in Week 11 with a play on the Arizona Cardinals +9½ vs. a San Francisco 49ers team coming off a statement win over the Giants.

Play on any divisional road team looking to avenge a loss of 14 points or more (75-53, 58.6% since 2002): NFL teams or all professional teams for that matter do not like getting embarrassed, and most of them have long memories. This is especially true when the big loss was to a division rival that they face twice a year. There is one qualifier this week and it is once again the Arizona Cardinals +9½.

Play on any underdog that lost its last game by 28 or more points (78-51-2, 60.5% ATS since 2002): This angle combines the concepts of teams not liking to get embarrassed and bettors not wanting to bet on those teams immediately after those said embarrassments. This trend won again in Week 9 when the Denver Broncos upset Oakland outright. After a week off last week, there are three qualifying dogs for Week 11 as of now: Buffalo +1, Minnesota +1 and Tampa Bay +14. Obviously, keep a close eye on those first two teams to make sure they remain underdogs.

Play on any road team in a division game coming off of a road game (66-39-2, 62.9% ATS since 2008): This is a more recent angle that involves bookmakers giving added value to teams playing on the road in consecutive weeks with the knowledge that bettors tend to shy away from these teams. The difference here is that this angle involves teams playing division games on the back end, meaning that they are very familiar with their opponents, which thus lessens the impact of being on the road again. This rather simple system keeps producing nice results and has two qualifiers this week that are both repeat trenders: Buffalo +1 and the Arizona Cardinals +9½.

Play against any home favorite coming off of a road win by three points or less (50-27, 65.8% ATS since 2000): Teams coming off narrow road wins usually exert a lot of energy, and they tend to come up flat if they are returning home the following week. There is one qualifying play this week, and it is the Seattle Seahawks +1 vs. a Rams team that won narrowly in Cleveland last week.

Play on any single-digit road underdog following a road loss (124-79-5, 61.1% ATS since 2002): This angle makes sense from a contrarian viewpoint because it combines two situations that bettors like to avoid, with one being betting on losing teams and another being teams on road trips. The fact that the team is now a dog usually means that it is inferior, so books are able to pad these lines a bit, and let's face it, finding something that is over 61 percent in 203 decisions in almost 10 years is remarkable. This angle won again with St. Louis in Week 10, and the one qualifying play for Week 11 is Buffalo +1, provided the Bills remain dogs.

Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (51-33, 60.7% ATS since 2005): Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. This angle went only 1-2 ATS in Week 10, but it has a chance to bounce back with two qualifiers for Week 11: Tampa Bay +14 and our Trends & Angles Play of the Week, the Arizona Cardinals +9½.

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

NFL PLAYS
2.5 UNIT* NFL* Minnesota (+1) over Oakland
2 UNIT* NFL* N.Y. Giants (-4) over Philadelphia
1.5 UNIT* NFL* Tennessee (+6) over Atlanta
1.5 UNIT* NFL* Baltimore (-7) over Cincinnati
6 UNIT* NFL* Philadelphia Under 47.0
3 UNIT* NFL* San Diego Over 45.0
3 UNIT* NFL* Buffalo Over 43.0

[Mr. IWS]

Strike Points Sports

3-Unit Play. Take #434 St. Louis (-1) over Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 20)
3-Unit Play. Take #424 Minnesota (+1) over Oakland (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 20)

5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 45.0 San Diego at Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 20)
NFL Game of the Week

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

6* Minnesota +1

[Mr. IWS]

JZ The Source

1* OVER 47 - Panthers / Lions

1* OVER 44 - Titans / Falcons

1* Washington +8 or +9

[Mr. IWS]

Colin Cowherd Blazin' Five

NFL 30-20 YTD, 1-4 LW

MIA -2.5 27-20
SEA +3 21-20
WAS +8 20-26
CHI -4 27-20
CIN +7 26-27

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Vic Philadelphia Daily News

GIANTS (-4) over Eagles: Double V was looking for a big bounce from the Birds last week, but instead, it was a big hurt, times two. My bank account took it on the chin, and Michael Vick took it in the ribs. They are listing Vick as questionable at the moment, and even with a flak jacket, it's gonna be an adventure. The New Yorkers knocked Vick out in the first meeting (broken right hand) at the Linc en route to a 29-16 win, and you can bet that the Giants "D" will show no mercy this time around. And even if Vick plays the whole game, based on his work against Arizona (a 32.5 QB rating), it ain't gonna be pretty. But if Vick is unable to go, then we're looking at Mike Kafka or Vince Young. Still not pretty. The spread is sitting at minus-4 (or minus-3 if you shop around), but if they decide to hold Vick out, the line could jump to minus-5 or minus-6. Too many questions, not enough answers, so I'll keep it light.
**RAVENS (-7) over Bengals: Picking Seattle over Baltimore last week raised more than a few eyebrows, but we were looking at what happened to the Ravens in the first 2 weeks of the season. They posted a ferocious 35-7 win over the Steelers in the opener, then went down to Tennessee and lost to the Titans, 26-13. Say it with me: "Letdown." Coming off another win over Pittsburgh, Ray Lewis & Co. got caught in a Seahawk trap, and came up on the short end of a 22-17 score. Say it with me, again: "Letdown." There's no coming up short this week. And if you're saying, hey, Vic, what about Cincinnati's five-game winning streak earlier in the season, I'm saying it was built on the backs of the NFL's weak sisters, teams with a combined 17-29 record. Then you have to take a look at Baltimore's superb record at home, winning four in row this season and 24 of the last 29. That makes this my Best Bet.
LIONS (-7) over Panthers: Care to ask me about Carolina's record on the road the last year and a half? How about 0-11. Which makes this a perfect spot for Detroit. The Lions are coming off a beatdown by the Bears (37-13), but should enjoy the warmth and the wind-free environment under the roof at Ford Field. And they'll probably put a "spy" on Cam Newton, just as the Titans did, confusing the rookie, and leading to a 30-3 blowout by Tennessee.
Cardinals (+10) over 49ERS: San Francisco wanted to prove it belongs with the elite of the NFL. So the Niners went out and beat the New York Giants Sunday, 27-20. Mission accomplished. Now the 49ers get to take a little breather. While a "W" is certainly in order, covering the fat, double-digit spread is not. Arizona is 2-0 with John Skelton under center and is on a 3-0 spread run. Look for the Cardinals to stay competitive and squeeze out a cover.
PATRIOTS (-15) over Chiefs: Laying 15 in the NFL is uncomfortable, but in this spot, it's a must. Put aside the fact that New England is on top of the AFC East, has a ridiculous 19-3 record at home the last 22 games and will be playing against Tyler Palko (13 lifetime passes). The real story line here is Tom Brady (5000-plus lifetime passes). The last time he played Kansas City was in the 2008 home opener. If you remember, he was knocked out and lost the entire season. Revenge? You betcha!
Cowboys (-7) over REDSKINS: Mike Shanahan's record in Denver was 138-86 with a huge assist from John Elway. Outside of the Mile High city, Shanahan is a depressing 17-28 in stints with the Raiders and Redskins. Another blowout for the 'Boys.
BEARS (-3) over Chargers: Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers do not like each other. Vic doesn't like that San Diego has covered only four of its previous 12 on the road, but does like Chicago's current 7-0 roll in the month of November.
FALCONS (-6) over Titans: Since Tennessee has covered only three of the last nine on the road, we'll buy the Southern Birds.
Bills (+2) over DOLPHINS: Buffalo is 3-0 against sub-.500 teams, and the Fish are very sub-.500.
Jaguars (+1) over BROWNS: Jax has won four of the last five at Cleveland, while the Browns have covered only three of the previous 17 overall.
VIKINGS (+1) over Raiders: Oakland has covered only two of the previous 15 as a favorite. Color this one purple.
Buccaneers (+14) over PACKERS: Green Bay has to take its foot off the gas pedal sometime. Maybe this is the week.
RAMS (-2) over Seahawks: Who bounced St. Louis out of the playoffs at the end of last season? Seattle, that's who!

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
1 OF 10
Game: Arizona at San Francisco (Sunday 11/20 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Arizona +10 (-115)

The Niners are undefeated this season against the spread. When you have that situation this late in the season, you start getting some serious line value the other way. This will be a tough spot for San Francisco to get motivated, as they have all but wrapped up the NFC West just nine games into the season with their stellar 8-1 record. That gives them a five game lead with just seven to play. And, they are coming off a huge win vs. the Giants and they have Baltimore on tap. In the meantime, they get the lowly Cardinals at home which can't excite them. The Cardinals have found a little unexpected benefit in the arm of John Skelton and won as a huge dog last week at Philadelphia. Skelton has achieved a higher QB rating than Kolb this season. The 49ers may also be limited in their use of Frank Gore who injured his knee last week and with such a big cushion, I doubt they will put him in harm's way often, as this game doesn't mean much. The Niners have already shown signs of
contentment when playing bad teams with a 10-point win vs. Cleveland and an 8-point win vs. Washington. This one certainly sets up to be even closer yet. The Cardinals are now 16-7 ATS off a game where they passed for 150 yards or less, and the road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these clubs. In their last 32 games vs. great teams (.750+), Arizona has gone 24-8 against the number. Under Ken Wisenhunt, this team is 12-3 ATS vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 6+ points per game.
Take the Cards with the points.

[Mr. IWS]

POINTWISE PHONES:

3* San Diego, Atlanta, San Fran, Wash

2* Buff, GBay, Minny

[Mr. IWS]

Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 38-23 +38.10% Not counting Thursday winner

3% CAROLINA +7
3% SAN FRANCISCO –9.5 No higher than -10

[Mr. IWS]

Football Jesus (from podcast): Free Pick: cinci bengals + 7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Hanidcappster

5* Miami -1

4* Philadelphia +5.5

3* Cincinnati +7

3* Detroit -7

2* Seattle +2