UFC 117

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 117

I actually know SBS, and have gotten into it with him at another site frequently. He actually found out about the VENETIAN from me. I have been betting MMA at the Venetian from the start. I live in Southern California(Yorba Linda), and SBS lives in Northern California. No way in Hell we are the same dude. I now have a guy that lives in Vegas that bets the fights for me at the V., but I give him 100.00 every trip he makes, it is starting to get expensive. But it saves me the gas, and time of having to drive or fly down there what had started to seem like every week.

SBS is actually not that bad of a guy, but I can see how he did not fit in around here. He does know his shit when it comes to the numbers in this game. But he could piss off the pope.

I didn't mind him. I didn't think it was that big of a deal. They don't ban you for not fitting in. He seemed like he knew what was going on a little.

That said, pretty interesting how you have nothing but positive things to say about -YOURSELF, southbaysurf II.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

You honestly believe +450=30% chance of winning? And you use this knowledge to bet? As for your side bet of $1000.00, that is just a silly thing to say over the internet. How about 100K? Give me a break. How about I copy my boxing picks from another site, and show you where I am hitting at close to 75 % and hitting +300 dogs.

Just to let you know, I have been making a living betting boxing for over a decade. Fairly new to MMA, so am still learning. But anyone who says they CAN MAKE a living betting big favorites is nothing more than a liar. And I have met plenty of them, they all eventually go bust. And I have been betting boxing since I was 16, and am now 37. I have seen these guys come and go. I doubt MMA is that much different.

I'd like to see your boxing bets just to see who you have bet to see if we are betting the samethings.

Also whats the limits on boxing and MMA at the Palazzo?I was there a few weeks ago but forgot to ask

One other thig what do you consider BIG favorites? Some people consider -600 big favorites but I consider anything over -300 a big favorite so I was just wondering

Before I became a member here, I read around, I think we have very similiar philosophies...Here are some recent boxing write-ups.

Alright, the weigh ins actually did it for me. Sergio looked rock solid at 159 1/2, and that was my only concern(him moving up).

I think there is a solid chance that he makes Kelly look plain silly in there.

graham also has a nice write up.

I got both Martinez straight @ +150 and by decision @ +320.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Any early thoughts. I still think Matrix has a very good shot here. I took him in Vegas @ +195 for 300.00 already. Vegas had the over at -150 which I think is the way to play it. In fact, I think every one of these fights has went over if I am remembering correctly. I really think all these guys are world class, and getting a decent #(-150) on this fight, where neither guy has been stopped is worthwhile. I can understand the belief that AA has a shot at stopping Andre. But Arthur barely stopped Taylor, and I think Andre is a smarter, and better conditioned athlete than Taylor. i think the fact that this fight is in the U.S. gives A.D. an even better shot at the upset.

May talk myself into a fairly large over bet here.

Abraham vs. Dirrell.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

OK, I just watched MOST of the Foreman-Santos bout(Foremans last bout) and best win. Even though IMO Santos looked like complete shit, and really is not that great anyways. Also made a call, and checked some of the predictions of some guys I respect(at least the ones that have made one so far). And I am absolutely shocked. It seems like everyone is picking Yuri.

I do not get it, the Yuri i saw fight Santos gets mugged by cotto IMO. Granted, Cotto is moving up to 154(which might actually be good). But Jesus, is Yuri really going to knock Cotto out? i keep hearing it...Cotto is damaged goods. Well, maybe to a certain extent, but damn, I just do not get the hype on yuri. Cotto has problems with guys that can take his shots and spit it right back at him, not guys who try to box him. And keep in mind, the last time Cotto fought a good fighter, but not elite was Gomez, and he damn near killed him.

I say wait for the line to improve if you like Cotto, because everyone seems to be on Yuris nuts. Maybe we can get Cotto at -160 or -150. I just think Cotto is going to give Foreman fits.

Full disclosure must be made, I have not been a big fan of Yuri for some time, I thought he barely beat some fighters he should have easily beat, and I think he has been protected for quite some time. Some of his earlier fights were painful to watch....hit, grab, run.

A bit on Foreman-Cotto. Never made an actual bet.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 117

I checked the IPs when he was a couple posts in, and they were not the same. That said, I find over my years of owning this forum, that usually guys tend to out themselves.

That said, sbjj, welcome aboard.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

This is a fight where I think the line is just off. Hall is a somewhat untested fighter, but that does not mean he is no good. While Napa is the more seasoned fighter, but has a style that makes this fight dangerous for him IMO.

Ian will more than likely have to beat Hall by decision on his home turf. And i think Hall is good enough to make it competitive. If Hall wins just 3 clear rounds, and a few more are close, I can see him getting the nod in this one. Keep in mind, Ian has no punching power, and Hall will at the least go after him and try to win. this could make it very hard for the judges to score these rounds.

Keep in mind, this is more of a value play...not like the Marquez-Vasquez fight, where I was really confident. But i give Hall at least a 40% chance here, if not an even chance. So the price is just right IMO.

1 unit on Hall @ +235.

Napa vs. Hall

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

OK, the line has already flipped. Opening with Marquez as the +130 dog, and now the -130 fave. Which is exactly what I thought would happen. I like Marquez here alot. He still has the goods(to an extent) While I think Israel is almost beyond damaged. Waiting for the Marquez by stoppage prop also, as I suspect he might get him out of their sooner than many think.

Money is coming in on Marquez, and for good reason.

Marquez-Vazquez 4

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

This is a fight where I think the line is just off. Hall is a somewhat untested fighter, but that does not mean he is no good. While Napa is the more seasoned fighter, but has a style that makes this fight dangerous for him IMO.

Ian will more than likely have to beat Hall by decision on his home turf. And i think Hall is good enough to make it competitive. If Hall wins just 3 clear rounds, and a few more are close, I can see him getting the nod in this one. Keep in mind, Ian has no punching power, and Hall will at the least go after him and try to win. this could make it very hard for the judges to score these rounds.

Keep in mind, this is more of a value play...not like the Marquez-Vasquez fight, where I was really confident. But i give Hall at least a 40% chance here, if not an even chance. So the price is just right IMO.

1 unit on Hall @ +235.

Napa vs. Hall

I dont bet dogs unless I think they are going to win so I dont usually end up on big dogs too often.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

By no means am I perfect at Boxing though. I lost a small bet on Jones by decision against B-hop. and lost with Arreola against Adamek.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

This is a fight where I think the line is just off. Hall is a somewhat untested fighter, but that does not mean he is no good. While Napa is the more seasoned fighter, but has a style that makes this fight dangerous for him IMO.

Ian will more than likely have to beat Hall by decision on his home turf. And i think Hall is good enough to make it competitive. If Hall wins just 3 clear rounds, and a few more are close, I can see him getting the nod in this one. Keep in mind, Ian has no punching power, and Hall will at the least go after him and try to win. this could make it very hard for the judges to score these rounds.

Keep in mind, this is more of a value play...not like the Marquez-Vasquez fight, where I was really confident. But i give Hall at least a 40% chance here, if not an even chance. So the price is just right IMO.

1 unit on Hall @ +235.

Napa vs. Hall

But I viewed this fight as close to a pick em, making +235 a steal.


I dont bet dogs unless I think they are going to win so I dont usually end up on big dogs too often.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Luke, what I love about boxing, is you can get a good feel for a certain outcome. Like Marquez by stoppage. Or Martinez by decision. Or like Mayweather by decision. Not near as confident in MMA certain outcomes.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 117

Actually, my last boxing pick lost.

It will be tough, but I think Richie could win this one, I think he is the better fighter. He is on Mirandas turf. But i like him @ +140

1 unit on Mepranum @ +140

Miranda kicked his ass.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

By no means am I perfect at Boxing though. I lost a small bet on Jones by decision against B-hop. and lost with Arreola against Adamek.

nor am I,not even close. I've only bet 9 boxing bouts this year any one boxing parlay so a total of 10 plays in boxing

[AC88]

Re: UFC 117

I remember the Adamek-Arreola once had a lot of Adamek supporters.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 117

Luke, what I love about boxing, is you can get a good feel for a certain outcome. Like Marquez by stoppage. Or Martinez by decision. Or like Mayweather by decision. Not near as confident in MMA certain outcomes.

I know what you mean. Also boxing is so much easier to predict than MMA. In mma you can lose by injury,submission, or ANY punch because they only use 4 oz gloves. In boxing if you pick the right fighter your only chance of losing is by a lucky punch or a screw job on the scorecard,neither of which happen very often