UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I think JDS has value @ +190. They both have clear paths to victory, unlike the Cain/Lesnar fight. JDS has a clear path to victory... and Cain has show that his aggressive GNP style leaves room for guys to stand up and also hit him. Rothwell was able to get to his feet, Kongo was able to get to his feet. I think if Cain gives JDS those same chances, he has a great chance of napping Cain.

There are going to be scrambles and flurries from both guys. JDS has better striking and power than anyone Cain has faced. Cain has better wrestling than anyone JDS has faced. I think it is a hard fight to visualize, but JDS has value IMO.

People are high on Cain because of his destruction of Brock. Let's not forget that Carwin basically did the same thing, alot of refss would have pulled Carwin off Lesnar. Cain is a stud and I am not taking anything away from him, but let's not get carried away about him yet.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Yeah JDS at +190 isn't a bad bet at all. (Well actually it is because he's going to get mashed, but still)

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I'll say he has a chance, but I wouldn't bet on it. For me to bet on it, he has to have more than a "chance". I have to think he is going to win the fight. Cain's stand up is not that bad..he has a good chin and he will def outwrestle him.

Junior looks strong as hell, so I think he might be able to stop some takedowns and I would not be suprised at all to see him catch Cain at some point, maybe even multiple points. However Cain has a way out of that, when he gets caught he can go for the takedown/tie him up. He did that amazingly well against Kongo, he literally picekd him up over his head and slammed him.

This isn't just an opinion on a fight for me but more of a change in betting style I think. From now on I am laying more money on less fights and I am sticking to those that I have a really good feeling about.

Leading up to last saturday I was thinking about placing two bets, Shields Via Decision and Cain Velasquez. I was going to control myself and stick to that, i eneded up failing. Luckily I went in pretty heavy on Cain and Shields so I came out ahead about 5u or so. I should of been ahead 15u or something in that area. This has happened to me a lot and I bet it has happened to many of you a lot. I call it over betting but it's literally "gambling addiction". It's time for me to tighten it up and just go big on the ones I think are worth it.

So far, I have Machida via Decision. I think I can get that at + odds and I will be putting at least 5u on it.

Also I am thinking Tyson Griffin over Nik Lentz, maybe via dec. as well. I bet I can get + odds on that as well though I am not yet convinced it will go to a decision.

Perhaps BJ Penn, though Hughes has been looking good lately and seemingly improving his hands.

Also, I am going to watch more fights from now on before I place bets. There has gotta be a science to this. I know we can beat the bookies.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I thought it would be about that . Too bad I'm not betting it that high .I would have probably bet -150 or lower but not -200+

[Luke]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Oh and I dont think JDS stands a chance

[Svino]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

shields dec is the best prop bet.

Yeah, you were right on the money with this one, dude. Shields straight was probably not the right side of the line, but there was good value on Shields by decision.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I'll say he has a chance, but I wouldn't bet on it. For me to bet on it, he has to have more than a "chance". I have to think he is going to win the fight.

I'm the sameway I wont bet a dog unless I expect him to win. If I dont think he'll win I dont bet it no matter how good of value there is

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I'm the sameway I wont bet a dog unless I expect him to win. If I dont think he'll win I dont bet it no matter how good of value there is

You wouldn't bet . . . say . . . Dan Hardy @ +1000 against Thiago Alves?

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Yeah I'm going to try to move forward in a better way. I feel more confident about myself now. I was just betting and hoping to get lucky before, but convincing myself there was something to what I was thinking(in some instances). I am just going to go with my gut and with what adds up to me. Hence Machida by Dec. I don't think Rampage will have an easy time getting Machida down(Rashad couldn't). I don't think Rampage is a better striker than Machida, he does have more power but he isn't as technical. Lastly Machida used to go to Decision a lot. He hasn't been to as many as of late which is why I think the line might be good. I don't see him being able to knock out rampage, though I think it's possibly Rampage can catch him. What I expect to see is Machida dancing around him picking his shots for 3 rounds. We've seen Machida go for trips and regular wrestler takedowns, I doubt he can get Rampage down with a double or single. He might be able to trip him but I don't think he can hold Rmpage down unless he can get into Guard. Tripping is the only way I see him being lucky enough to have Rampage maybe land in a way where Machida can hop in there..otherwise Rampage will get up. I think this should Most Likely end up on the feet where I see Lyoto outpointing him. I hope I can get it at +200. I think I can. Right now Machida/Rampage goes the distance is at -160. Maybe +150 might be more logical. I am not sure, Lyoto finished knocked out Rashad and Thiago, then got knocked out by Shogun...maybe the bookies will have forgotten the old "elusive" machida everyone used to complain about.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I'm the sameway I wont bet a dog unless I expect him to win. If I dont think he'll win I dont bet it no matter how good of value there is

You wouldn't bet . . . say . . . Dan Hardy @ +1000 against Thiago Alves?

Well that is a line that wouldn't exist. The biggest Udog that normally takes place(barring extreme situations that take place 2% of the time) is +350. But we wouldn't even get him at that anyways. He would probably be +200 at most. Maybe even less if he posted a win before fighting him. I think Thiago would probably kick his ass anyways. He has actual power in his hands, Hardy doesn't.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Well that is a line that wouldn't exist. The biggest Udog that normally takes place(barring extreme situations that take place 2% of the time) is +350. But we wouldn't even get him at that anyways. He would probably be +200 at most. Maybe even less if he posted a win before fighting him. I think Thiago would probably kick his ass anyways. He has actual power in his hands, Hardy doesn't.

I fear you missed the point.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Yeah I'm going to try to move forward in a better way. I feel more confident about myself now. I was just betting and hoping to get lucky before, but convincing myself there was something to what I was thinking(in some instances). I am just going to go with my gut and with what adds up to me. Hence Machida by Dec.

Machida by decision=great play imo. I have been saying Machida by decision when people used to discuss Machida vs Rampage last year. The line will probably be ridiculous, but "Not Rampage by decision" is a lock imo...Scientist, if you are still doing your locks parlay...there is a near lock imo.

I don't think Rampage will have an easy time getting Machida down(Rashad couldn't).

Rashad couldn't because he didn't try.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Yeah I'm going to try to move forward in a better way. I feel more confident about myself now. I was just betting and hoping to get lucky before, but convincing myself there was something to what I was thinking(in some instances). I am just going to go with my gut and with what adds up to me. Hence Machida by Dec.

Machida by decision=great play imo. I have been saying Machida by decision when people used to discuss Machida vs Rampage last year. The line will probably be ridiculous, but "Not Rampage by decision" is a lock imo...Scientist, if you are still doing your locks parlay...there is a near lock imo.

I don't think Rampage will have an easy time getting Machida down(Rashad couldn't).

Rashad couldn't because he didn't try.

I just read the play by play and it doesn't mention anything about a takedown attempt. Maybe Machidas footwork prevented it? Or Greg Jackson and Rashad Evans thought they could KO Machida...Well Ortiz couldn't get him down.

[Svino]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I just read the play by play and it doesn't mention anything about a takedown attempt. Maybe Machidas footwork prevented it?

It's been a while since I watched the fight, but I think that was pretty much it. He just did his, "fade in, hit Rashad, fade out" thing very effectively. Most of the time, his distance kept him safe.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I'll say he has a chance, but I wouldn't bet on it. For me to bet on it, he has to have more than a "chance". I have to think he is going to win the fight. Cain's stand up is not that bad..he has a good chin and he will def outwrestle him.

Junior looks strong as hell, so I think he might be able to stop some takedowns and I would not be suprised at all to see him catch Cain at some point, maybe even multiple points. However Cain has a way out of that, when he gets caught he can go for the takedown/tie him up. He did that amazingly well against Kongo, he literally picekd him up over his head and slammed him.

This isn't just an opinion on a fight for me but more of a change in betting style I think. From now on I am laying more money on less fights and I am sticking to those that I have a really good feeling about.

Leading up to last saturday I was thinking about placing two bets, Shields Via Decision and Cain Velasquez. I was going to control myself and stick to that, i eneded up failing. Luckily I went in pretty heavy on Cain and Shields so I came out ahead about 5u or so. I should of been ahead 15u or something in that area. This has happened to me a lot and I bet it has happened to many of you a lot. I call it over betting but it's literally "gambling addiction". It's time for me to tighten it up and just go big on the ones I think are worth it.

So far, I have Machida via Decision. I think I can get that at + odds and I will be putting at least 5u on it.

Also I am thinking Tyson Griffin over Nik Lentz, maybe via dec. as well. I bet I can get + odds on that as well though I am not yet convinced it will go to a decision.

Perhaps BJ Penn, though Hughes has been looking good lately and seemingly improving his hands.

Also, I am going to watch more fights from now on before I place bets. There has gotta be a science to this. I know we can beat the bookies.

Awesome post. Especially the less bets strategy. It sorta is like a gambling addiction, you just want each fight to have a bit more excitement.