UFC 125

[edman5555]

I heard once Overerem used to gas when he was younger. I don't know how much credit i can give that and i am sure you can't write off all his ko's to that. BUT, i dont think all his ko's were from stand up fighting which is about all I think Duffee can offer. On top of that, Overem has been dedicating himself to K1 comp since then and he is now much much larger. He doesn't seem as skilled as other guys in K1 to me when he fights, but he makes up for that in size. Duffee has a lot of ko's, but it is mostly against rinky dink fighters. He went 3 rounds with a pudgy wrestler(russow) before getting knocked out. He is not that good. He is just a big beast guy that can slug. That is the exact type of guy Overeem should eat up. The prototype Overeem Cannon Fodder. No wrestling, no sub. Just a slugger. I am going to bet like 20u on this.

[Thewisemann]

All those added muscles doesnt improve his chin. If Duffee lands, good chance its over. Reem should KO Duffee, but Duffee has value past @+300 and above.

[Luke]

I dont bet anything over -350 unless I think its a virtual lock.

[Luke]

Someone please explain to me why Maynard isnt a great bet ? I've watched the first fight over and over again and just dont see how Edgar wins.

Maynard is still bigger and stronger than Edgar and should be able to still take him down over and over,he's still the better wrestler and he's still very good at boxing . Not to mention in the first fight it was Edgar not Maynard gassing in the 3rd round .

Someone give me the other side of the arguement

[poopoo333]

^^I can't. I think Edgar's style just matches up well with BJ's and I don't buy the whole "BJ was unmotivated" crap either. Edgar was tossed around by Veach who is also another bigger wrestler. I don't remember Edgar vs Griffin but I am sure he was put on his back in that fight as well. I am actually going to go watch that fight right now. Also, Edgar was taken down by BJ on BJ's first try in their 2nd fight. Edgar got back up, but Maynard and BJ are not the same guy when it comes to top control. I don't even think Maynard is at a significant disadvantage on the feet (if any disadvantage).

[zY|]

That's true, but he hasn't been KOd in MMA since 2007.

Fighters he's fought since 2007.

Buentello
Lee Tae-Hyun
Mark Hunt
Cro Cop
Gary Goodridge
Tony Sylvester
James Thompson
Fujita
Bart Rivers

Other than Brent Rutgers, you won't find a guy in the top20 he's fought.

[edman5555]

todd duffee isnt in the top 20 and is bad stylistic matchup

[SPX]

I guess I'm the only one, but I think Edgar has improved significantly since his first fight with Maynard. Can't fighters change?

Maybe ya'll are right and both fights will look the same . . . but I think it's a bit of a fallacy to look at the first fight and make all your decisions on it. You have to look at everything.

[edman5555]

Yeah I am with you on Edgar. I don't know who wins this though I lean towards Maynard.

On a seperate note, I have a question.

How hard is it to win the FILA World Grappling Championships? I am only curious because Volkmann did it. Is it a big deal?

[SPX]

Yeah I am with you on Edgar. I don't know who wins this though I lean towards Maynard.

All you have to do is look at Edgar/Penn I and II to know that rematches don't always look the same. I personally actually scored the first fight for BJ. Edgar clearly won the second.

There are plenty of fights where the first fight and the rematch went down very differently.

[edman5555]

Heres why I think Gray will win: His striking is just as good as Frankies and he actually hits with power. Frankie doesn't, he just peppers his opponents for the most part. Gray also has the wrestling advantage. Frankie may steal a few takedowns in the beginning when he has a huge speed advantage but after awhile I think he will lose that. I consider it within the realm of possibility for Gray to tag frankie and get the tko also. He can hit pretty hard, he dropped Nate Diaz and lit a few other people up. I doubt it will happen though.

I have no doubt that Frankie is a much better fighter now than before but I don't his style has changed a lot. I'm sure he has improved at what he does but I am sure Gray has as well and Gray won the first fight 30-27 on all the judges cards. I would bet that Frankies biggest improvement would be in conditioning. He won't get worn out as quick as he did in the first fight.

All in all I don't see where Frankie has any big advantage here. He can't outwrestle him and he can't knock him out. I doubt he will submit him. Frankies only path to victory is going to be to try to dance around the octagon and land light to medium powered punches. He did that before with BJ but he had the wrestling adv there. If the striking is even, what makes the difference? Takedowns. Gray will def get some rounds with them, at least a couple. I'm sure Frankie can land a takedown but Gray probably won't even care. In the first fight every time Frankie initiated wrestling he got outwrestled. If he takes Gray down, that will just be an opportunity for Gray to get ahold of him and reverse it.

I guess I've talked myself into betting on Gray. I will probably skip past the straight bet and do him for a decision and a small play on Unanimous decision.

Also, I am thinking about betting on Guida. I might even do something small on Volkmann if his line gets crazy. I don't see what McKee has done to warrant being a favorite.

[edman5555]

Also I might bet on Daniel Roberts. My gut says to pick him but I don't really know much about Soto.

[poopoo333]

I want to bet Guida, but I am reluctant because Guida seems to get sucked into brawls at times...but Guida should grind this out.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah I am with you on Edgar. I don't know who wins this though I lean towards Maynard.

On a seperate note, I have a question.

How hard is it to win the FILA World Grappling Championships? I am only curious because Volkmann did it. Is it a big deal?

It is not a big deal. FILA is not a big org in submission grappling... it like AA baseball to the ADCC pros. I think Zak MAchovski also won it. For example, Ben Askren is a Fila World Submission champion. He got subbed in about 20 seconds in ADCC, and he lost his first match and got eliminated at the Mundials AT PURPLE BELT a couple months ago.

So no, it is not a big deal really. I mean, you have to be good, but it is not really world class stuff. Interesting aside: Askren actually beat Volkmann in the 2009 FILA finals.

[edman5555]

Well my bets are as follows:

.5u Gray by dec to win .7u
.5 Gray UD to win .95u
1.5u Guida to win 1u
1/8th Unit Jacob Volkmann to win .25u

I will probably bet on Daniel Roberts. You have money on him right Scientist? Can you break down to me what you think?