UFC 125

[SPX]

It's true that I'm a Leben fan, and I admit that may be coloring my judgement. I think he's a cool guy and I also like to watch him fight. I also feel like, while he is not great anywhere, he is good everywhere. That, along with the awesome combination of true KO power and an iron chin, makes him a pretty solid fighter in my mind.

Stann has looked better than ever, I'll also admit that. Subbing Massenzio is big and so is beating Cantwell, which I never thought he'd do. But he got beat handily by Krzysztof and also got raped by Phil Davis, so I'm not ready to jump on the Brian Stann Express just yet. Maybe after tonight I'll be singing a different tune.

[Svino]

Hey guys, happy 2011.

Been thinking about the 125 main card:

I do think Maynard will beat Edgar. Edgar's improved standup may force Maynard to go for more takedowns (or fencepress) early on, but I don't see it being more than Maynard can handle. IMO Maynard is probably worth a bet at current odds. Any decision prop for Maynard at + odds is good.

Not going to try to call Leben vs. Stann. It's the kind of striker / striker fight I usually avoid as a bettor. That one could be crazy.

On the other hand, I'll take a stab at Silva vs. Vera - I think Silva takes this. These guys may have both been overrated for much of their careers, and the list of the guys they have beaten and you won't see much to justify their relative fame. Silva has looked more impressive to me recently, though. Whomever loses will probably get cut.

Kim will probably beat Diaz by taking him down, controlling him, and avoiding Diaz's submission attempts. Kim has said that he wants to stand and trade, but I think he's lying. I like Kim by decision here.

I'm convinced that a prime Gomi would beat Guida easily. I like Guida's style, but I think he will have little luck taking Gomi down with his overrated wrestling and will get abused badly on the feet. I do feel that there is a possibility that Gomi is washed up, and that his KO of Griffin was his last (lucky) flash, but this possibility doesn't justify underdog odds. I like Gomi to win, and possibly by decision, as Guida could be hard for him to put away. (Gomi by dec was +400 at Bookmaker).

[MMA_scientist]

^^ agree with most of what you said, except Guida/Gomi. I think Gomi could put him away early on... but Gomi gasses badly late in fights, especially the last few years. I think if Guida can survive round one, he will start putting Gomi down and maybe even stop him. The combination of Guida being hard to stop, his pace, and Gomi's tank, makes me think Guida will wear him out in round 2 and 3. Gomi didn't gas too bad against FLorian, but it is the grappling that wears him out, and FLorian just boxed him.

I don't think Silva is that bad either. He has big power and an underrated ground game. He was able to use his jj to get back to his feet repeatedly against Rashad, who is a wet blanket when he wants to be. Vera can't hold him down IMO. He got schooled by Machida obviously, but I thought he looked ok against Rashad.

[Luke]

Well you guys scared me out of most of my McKee bet.

Before you ever placed the Leben bet though, I recall several people saying they had Stann in that one. At the end of the day, you have to trust your own breakdown over everyone else's.

But you are a Leben fan if I recall. I am the opposite, I dislike Leben's personality and I dislike his fighting style. I don't think he is very good and I never have. So I might be under estimating his chances...

I wasnt ever saying I thought Mclovin was going to lose I just said I thought the line was too high. I think betting him at -150 to -175 would be a good line . He'll win tonight imo

[Luke]

.

Kim will probably beat Diaz by taking him down, controlling him, and avoiding Diaz's submission attempts. Kim has said that he wants to stand and trade, but I think he's lying. I like Kim by decision here.

Maynard wasnt able to do that to Diaz so how is Kim going to be able to?

[Mr. IWS]

I think Maynard was caught up in all the shit talking and wanted to try to KO diaz. Plus, last time he went to the ground with Nate, he got tapped out. I think Diaz will pepper-fuck the shit out of Kim and win though.

[Luke]

I think Maynard was caught up in all the shit talking and wanted to try to KO diaz. Plus, last time he went to the ground with Nate, he got tapped out. I think Diaz will pepper-fuck the shit out of Kim and win though.

So do I and I think I'm going to bet Diaz . I think Diaz can handle Kim and keep it a stand up match

[Mr. IWS]

So do I and I think I'm going to bet Diaz . I think Diaz can handle Kim and keep it a stand up match

I'm not betting anything tonight. I wanna get on Maynard, but I am still having flashbacks betting against Edgar. I also like Leben and Stevens, but I'm being a bitch.

[MMA_scientist]

I think Diaz will beat Kim as well. Diaz is the biggest submission threat by far that Kim has faced. Diaz has lost several fights, but he always keeps it close. He has never been blown out. Guys can beat him by running out the clock on him, but just like his brother, he has never really lost a fight...so much as he just runs out of time. I think Kim's path to victory is via decision, but even then it will probably be close and the judges are morons, so...

[poopoo333]

Maynard wasnt able to do that to Diaz so how is Kim going to be able to?

He didn't try.

[Luke]

Everyone got their TV's tuned to ION?

[Mr. IWS]

Everyone got their TV's tuned to ION?

LOL, I just found that shit. Channel 61 for me. I think that is a free channel.

[SPX]

The fact that Guida was able to molest Diaz en route to a decision tells me that Kim at least has a good chance of doing the same thing. That doesn't mean he will, of course.

[poopoo333]

Marcus Davis is @+250 right now. I thought the line would stay the same or even drop when I bet it last night. lame

[MMA_scientist]

I wasnt ever saying I thought Mclovin was going to lose I just said I thought the line was too high. I think betting him at -150 to -175 would be a good line . He'll win tonight imo

I had an arb opp, it was probably the smart thing to do any way.