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bodog was the first to open the lineComment
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I have lost several of the parlays before... it is an issue of money management. If you are betting too big for your bankroll, you will eventually lose when you experience the inevitable downturn. It doesn't have anything to do with the lines.
That said, it is not the backbone of my system, I am still making most of my money on moderate favorites. I have been parlaying 2 fights lately, but I am only slightly ahead of where I would be if I had just be them straight, because I have lost several of the 2 fight parlays.
As for 5d, I am not playing with a lot of money. They aren't worried about me. I just cashed out there with no problem whatsoever. They gladly take my bets, and I gladly place them there (I also use BM though).
In any event, a book can know know the math is on its side, since the odds of an event happening are subjective and cannot be quantified. For example, the book sets the line on Daley submitting Diaz at -3700. I happen to believe that even if they fought 10,000 times, Daley would never submit Diaz, he wouldn't even try. So it has value, actually, a lot of value.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Liking Carwin more and more.Comment
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^ Yeah I actually think he should be favored in this. He is going to have a better gas tank for this one. He also has huge power in his hands, a good chin, and the wrestling advantage. That said, Junior is quick on his feet and the superior striker. I predict, Shane beats Junior. Everyone talks about the new and improved Shane Carwin. Carwin fights Cain. Cain kills Carwin by having a unique and incredible gas tank. Everyone goes back to calling Shane a gasser. Shane fights Brock for a number one contendership. Shane beats Brock. Dana White says Shane Carwin is back. Shane Carwin fights the number one contender again for a shot at Cain. Shane beats him. Shane VS Cain 2 happens. The UFC shows replays of the one punch Shane threw in the whole fight that dropped Cain. People wonder who will win because Shane beat Brock Lesnar.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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yeah... I cannot call that fight. I think Carwin has more outs. Carwin could land a big shot standing and he could also take him down (maybe). But who knows what will happen to Carwin after 5 minutes. Also, let's not forget that Carwin got dropped by Gonzaga too. I could totally see JDS just dropping him into a heap, Werdum Style.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Yeah I agree 100% about the heap.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I am not worried about other people getting in on my game. It is actually pretty hard to come up with a string that is tight, which is why I haven't done it on the last few cards.
Anyway, why do you say they have plugged the hole? They will open the lines eventually.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Will they? I'm just judging what they do have open, it seems the lines are tighter then usual. 5dimes doesnt have near the props that paddy power has. And with that vaghanny guy releasing all his props and arbs to the public most books are wising up and have much sharper lines in general on props to go along with the low limits.Last edited by flyinggogoplata; 06-09-2011, 02:14 PM.Comment
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I am going to be on JDS pretty large. I think some of you are kinda of ignoring what is really happening to Carwin. the guy is losing mass because he is off the juice. his power will be somewhat diminished IMO. Factor in the fact he is coming off surgery and just plain getting up their in age and I think you have a guy that will just be a few steps behind in this fight.
In actuality I think many people are going to be surprised at how easily JDS dispatches of him. I think it will look like Cain-Lesnar. I think Carwin will look to get JDS down(and just might), but JDS will pop back up, and by midway through the 1st Carwin will be a dead man.Comment
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A Carwin off the juice is a Carwin we have never seen in the octagon.Comment
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Been checkin him out for a week or so, bets alot of props, seems he does good.Comment
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