Strikeforce Dallas June 18th

[Svino]

There is a statistician already working on predictive algorithm fight outcome application for fightmetric

I doubt it's gonna work. This would be far easier to do with boxing than with MMA. Has it ever been done successfully with boxing?

[Luke]

Isn't this the case with all sports, though?

No.MMA/boxing are the easiet sports to beat over time, the NFL is the hardest

[flyinggogoplata]

I'm not talking about limits . . . I'm talking about all sports being beatable.

No, Maybe one out of hundred gamblers are winners. Most sharps are math wizards with large databases and math models.

[Luke]

Why do you say that?

The lines are a lot sharper in other sports because more money is bet on them

[Svino]

Why do you say that?

1) As I said above, look at our tracker...

2) When sports get to the point where they can be modeled well statistically, the casinos can use those good models and the vig takes care of the rest.

[Luke]

Tell us more. . .

Thats all he told me .It this guy here:

http://twitter.com/#!/johncandido

[Luke]

Has it ever been done successfully with boxing?

Not to my knowledge

[SPX]

I don't know about math models, but I will just say that it seems to me that, due to the intangibles of being human, it would be impossible even for a computer to arrive at any truly accurate percentage or line in any sport.

You can never account for injuries, jet lag, guys just being unmotivated, etc.

[SPX]

1) As I said above, look at our tracker...

Well I haven't looked at the trackers for other sports . . . are IWS members only successful at MMA?

[Luke]

You can never account for injuries, jet lag, guys just being unmotivated, etc.

They don't need math models for that they have access to inside info that none of us hear about till after the fight

[flyinggogoplata]

I don't know about math models, but I will just say that it seems to me that, due to the intangibles of being human, it would be impossible even for a computer to arrive at any truly accurate percentage or line in any sport.

You can never account for injuries, jet lag, guys just being unmotivated, etc.

they can get it close enough to where you can't beat the juice.

[flyinggogoplata]

Well I haven't looked at the trackers for other sports . . . are IWS members only successful at MMA?

pretty much no one beats the nfl straight up.

[SPX]

They don't need math models for that they have access to inside info that none of us hear about till after the fight

Well fuck that shit. No wonder I don't care about any other sports.

In any case, they must me making enough money on MMA for them to keep offering lines year after year.

[flyinggogoplata]

In large markets like the nfl you're going up against guys like Billy Walters.

[Svino]

Well I haven't looked at the trackers for other sports . . . are IWS members only successful at MMA?

Taken as a whole, it looks like MMA posters here do the best against the casinos. That said, I am pretty impressed with Zak's football record.