BJ Penn Vs Nick Diaz - UFC 137

[poopoo333]

Who cares who he beat? What does beating those guys have to do with beating Vera? Totally different match ups

[MMA_scientist]

Most likely, Marshall is going to have to win a kickboxing match with Vera to win this fight. Vera, for all his faults, does have pretty solid TD defense. His issue to me is that he is like CroCop standing, he just doesn't pull the trigger very much. I think Vera will win, but I really would not be surprised to see Marshall take the fight to him and win a decision.

[sbjj]

I to think Vera should win. But his line is ridiculous. One of those cases where one should bet on the guy who should lose purely from a value perspective.

[SPX]

Yes, and that's my point: The line is stupid. I expect Vera will win, and probably handily, but there's no way anyone should bet him at that line after the way he's burned bettors in the past.

[MMA_scientist]

It seems insane that at one point, not that long ago, I picked Vera to defeat Jon Jones. I will probably go to my grave with that shame on my head.

In other news, I am second guessing my BJ bet. I still think BJ will win, but I think I went too big on him... he could totally lose and I am probably going to lose my siver bet too... I could wipe out 5u really easily. Maybe I should hedge the Siver bet.

[sbjj]

Yea, I may skip the event. Was planning on a fairly large BJ bet, but I am also having second thoughts.

[sbjj]

Yes, and that's my point: The line is stupid. I expect Vera will win, and probably handily, but there's no way anyone should bet him at that line after the way he's burned bettors in the past.

Very true. That type of line should be reserved for fighters who are very DEPENDABLE. Not fighters who lose to people they should not lose to or constantly fight close fights(see Tyson Griffin).

[SPX]

Dependable. . . That's a good word for it.

[MMA_scientist]

Yea, I may skip the event. Was planning on a fairly large BJ bet, but I am also having second thoughts.

I can't give a good reason, because everything points to BJ winning and he has a favorable line (IMO). I really don't think Diaz has improved much since his UFC losses 5 years. Also, he flakes out himself somewhat, and almost lost to some guy named Mike Aina. BJ should win if he takes him down some. Diaz presses forward pretty much all the time and that should allow BJ to catch him standing. I guess my concern is that BJ is going to land clean but relatively fewer shots while thinking he is winning, and allow Diaz to win a volume decision.

I don't know, I guess I should just stay with it. But I do think I will hedge my Siver bet a little, even though I think he has value, I really don't want to be dropping 5u on this event. I have been on a losing streak, another big hit could put me on tilt.

[MMA_scientist]

Just looked at the no-name undercard guys.

Starks is +110, he was a d1 wrestler at ASU. He is fighting an athletic tall guy in Jacoby, but he doesn't seem to have overwhelming skills. I think Starks could be worth a wrestler-underdog play.

[Vandelay]

Someone over at SBR posted a vid of Diaz and said that diaz stated that he had a rough training camp. Anyways I cant watch it now, but its hard to believe that diaz would have missed the ufc 137 pre press conference and the media call had he been training every day.

[Vandelay]

http://espn.go.com/extra/mma/preview/_/event/3695/match/1

Can someone check the "staff picks" link and tell me which one is penn and which one is diaz?

[SPX]

BOL!

[MMA_scientist]

http://espn.go.com/extra/mma/preview...t/3695/match/1

Can someone check the "staff picks" link and tell me which one is penn and which one is diaz?

What do you mean? The ESPN staff picks favors Diaz (4-3). The vegas odds favor Penn (-120)... that is all it says.


EDIT: just saw the pic was wrong. Umm.. ha?

[edman5555]

is the fight still going to be a 3 rounder?