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LINES2WiN - Havent posted in a while, Jan is off to a bad start but NCAAB has been gold Going 60-35-2 (+31.35 Units) overall. Football has been bad, feel free to fade that.
2-0 (+2.27 Units) last night. Another winning night as Penn outlasts Columbia while South Illinois closes out Indiana st.
NFL
49ers +4 -115 (1.5 Units) - Buying the half point. Brees is very human away from the turf and the dome. Dome teams on the road in the playoffs win about 25% of the time. San Fran is tops in the league in rush defense which means they can commit more guys elsewhere. Both teams are playing their best football right now, but we actually think the Niners can beat the Saints. Playing small since NFL has been atrocious for us.
NCAAB
Wyoming +3.5 (1.5 Units) - New Mexico has issues closing out games. Both teams are solid but Wyoming is home and getting points spells trouble for New Mexico.
#734 - IUPUI +8 (2 units) - Oral Roberts is good but Indiana-Purdue doesn't lose by 8 points often. Looks like an easy cover or an outright win at home tonight
The Saints leave the Big Easy for a trip to the west coast to face the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday afternoon in the divisional round of the playoffs. We used New Orleans last week as our NFL Wild Card Best Bet and they delivered after falling behind they stormed back and gave us the against the spread victory. This week's challenge is much larger as the Saints have never won a playoff game on the road but that will change today. The key matchup is going to be the offense of the Saints against the defense of the 49ers. The talk has been about how solid the San Francisco defense has been this season and for the most part it has been solid especially against the run but their Achilles heel is defending the pass. San Francisco struggled against some of the league's top quarterbacks this season giving up 432 yards passing to Dallas, 416 yards passing to Philly, 293 yards passing to Detroit, 311 yards passing to the Giants and 330 yards passing to Pittsburgh. They will face one of the league's best quarterbacks today in the Saints Drew Brees. He is a first ballot hall of famer and would certainly be considered one of the best if not the best at doing what we call "throwing a receiver open". We have been fortunate enough to see Brees play in person several times and I can tell you he can throw into a very small space one, which only his receiver can catch. Brees has a very talented supporting cast in the backfield, tight end and of course, wide receiver, all these positions should be considered a threat by the San Francisco defense. If they fail to recognize the threat, it could be a very long day for the 49ers defense. Technical support comes from several league-wide systems that all recommend a play on the Saints or a play against the 49ers. We want to Play ON a Semi-Final road team as long as they are not an underdog of eleven or more points coming off a WildCard home favorite SU win in its last game and three SU wins prior to that, 8-0 ATS covering by an average of 8.1 points per game. The 49ers qualify in two negative systems that are active. Play AGAINST a Playoff team (not a favorite of more than 8 points) in its first playoff game coming off two regular season road SU wins, 0-6 ATS failing to cover the spread by 14.1 points per game. Play AGAINST NFL playoff home teams in their first playoff game versus an opponent with the same number of regular season SU losses, 0-9 ATS failing to cover the spread by 8.7 points per game. The Saints are 12-3 ATS as a favorite this season. New Orleans is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game this season. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game this season. The Saints are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games this season. The Saints are 8-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) as a road favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. Play ON NFL teams with a Wide Receiver Pass Percentage For less than 46 percent and a Successful Passing Plays For advantage more than 2. These teams are 142-78 ATS including 42-14 ATS the last three seasons. Play ON any NFL team with a TOD more than or equal to three, PAF more than 37 yards and LGRAA less than 30, 84-28 ATS including 10-3 ATS this season. The Saints have been here before and that experience along with the horrible taste left in their mouths by that road loss in Seattle their last trip to the postseason should make the difference as the Saints advance with a SU and ATS win today!
PRO INFO FORECAST: 7* New Orleans Saints 36 San Francisco 49ers 24
---Start Time 4:30 PM EST---
New Orleans Saints -3 over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, 10 dimes (buy the hook)
---Start Time 8:00 PM EST---
Denver Broncos/NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over 50, 20 dimes
Bill Belichick is very talented at getting his defense ready for a showdown after a bye week. This time around however, he simply doesn't have the personnel. The Pats D has been getting steamrolled week after week, indicated by their rank of 31st in the league. The injuries have led to a vacuum of talent and leadership that even the mind of Belichick can't fill. The problems simply don't lie in one facet of their game, but in both the pass and rush departments. Tebow showed some serious poise last week, and I'm confident he can put enough points up on the scoreboard to help push this one over the total. Demaryius Thomas has emerged as a downfield threat, while I look to McGahee to rebound with a stellar rushing performance. Take this over!
---Start Time 4:00 PM EST---
Depaul Blue Demons +15.5 over LOUISVILLE CARDINALS, 10 dimes
---Start Time 7:05 PM EST---
INDIANA PACERS -3.5 over Boston Celtics, 10 dimes
Youngstown Connection Date: Saturday January 14, 2012$39.00*Non Guaranteed PackageNCAAB #696 California -23 1030PM EasternNFL San Francisco +3.5 430PM EasternDenver +13.5 8PM EasternGot delayed but here they are.
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