4-8-13

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Michigan vs. Louisville

The Wolverines look to take advantage of a Louisville team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against Big Ten opponents. Michigan is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+4). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, APRIL 8 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (4/6)

Game 601-602: Michigan vs. Louisville (9:23 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 76.987; Louisville 78.815 Dunkel Line: Louisville by 2; 142 Vegas Line: Louisville by 4; 138 Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+4); Over

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Michigan vs. Louisville: What bettors need to know

Michigan Wolverines vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 138.5)

The loss of Kevin Ware did not seem to limit the Louisville bench in the Final Four. Luke Hancock and the reserves will try to step up again when the Cardinals take on Michigan in the National Championship Game on Monday. The Wolverines knocked off another Big East school, Syracuse, in the Final Four and have the athletes to get up and down with Louisville as well as a point guard in Trey Burke that can dribble through the press.

Michigan has been a better-rounded team in the NCAA Tournament due to the emergence of Mitch McGary, who did not even join the starting lineup full time until the beginning of the Tournament. The freshman forward will lock up with Gorgui Dieng and Chane Behanan along the frontline in Monday’s Championship Game. Dieng struggled with foul trouble in the Final Four win over Wichita State but Luke Hancock jumped into the extra minutes vacated by Ware and his foul-prone teammates and responded with 20 points.

TV: 9:23 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT MICHIGAN (31-7): McGary showed off his passing ability to help the Wolverines break through Syracuse’s press in the first half on Saturday finished with a season-high six assists to go along with 10 points and 12 rebounds. National Player of the Year Trey Burke struggled to 1-of-8 from the field against the Orange but will be the key to keeping up with Russ Smith and Peyton Siva on both ends while setting up Tim Hardaway Jr. and Glenn Robinson III. The Wolverines like to get out and run with Burke setting the pace and Hardaway and Robinson on the wings. Freshman guard Nik Stauskas had a tough semifinal but can stretch the defense with his shooting ability like he did while going 6-for-6 from beyond the arc against Florida in the Elite 8. Michigan is in the National Championship for the first time since the Fab Five made its second trip in 1993 and is the youngest team in the field of 68, with Robinson III, McGary and Stauskas all starting as freshman.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (34-5): The Cardinals have won 15 straight games going back to the regular season and have shown off their ability to win in different styles during the NCAA Tournament. After running Duke off the floor in the second half of the Elite 8, Wichita State forced Louisville to slow the pace and would not turn the ball over, leaving the Cardinals to play more of a half-court game. That turned out to be the ideal way to Hancock more involved, and the junior swingman helped Louisville overcome a 12-point second-half deficit. Of course, Smith added 21 points as well and will be a key to keeping Hardaway Jr. and Glenn Robinson from slashing to the hole. Smith has scored at least 20 points in each of the five NCAA Tournament games and combines with Siva to form one of the fastest backcourts in college basketball and a tandem that jumps passing lanes and piles up steals defensively.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Cardinals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* Over is 9-0 in Cardinals’ last nine overall.
* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten foes.

TIP-INS

1. Louisville is making its first trip to the National Championship game since winning the title in 1986, and coach Rick Pitino will be trying to win championships with two different schools (Kentucky 1996).

2. McGary is averaging 16 points on 69.8 percent shooting and 11.6 rebounds in the Tournament.

3. The Cardinals bench collected 34 points on Saturday despite missing Ware.

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NCAA National Championship Game biggest betting mismatches
By JASON LOGAN

Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. We peel back Monday’s National Championship Game in search of some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 138.5)

Wolverines’ deep threat vs. Cardinals’ poor perimeter game

Michigan is a threat to score the second it crosses halfcourt. The Wolverines knocked down 11 3-pointers in their close win over Syracuse, including a couple from just inside the “F” in the Final Four midcourt decal. Each time the Orange clawed their way into striking distance, Michigan was able to put distance between them from distance. On the year, the Wolverines shot 37.7 percent from beyond the arc which accounted for 30 percent of their 25th-ranked 75.2 points per game.

Louisville’s biggest weakness is its lack of reliable scoring from outside. The Cardinals shoot just 32.9 percent from 3-point range on the year and are slightly below that during the tournament (24 for 76 – 31.5 percent). The nine 3-pointers made in the win over Wichita State were the most Louisville has made since sinking 10 versus Villanova in the Big East tournament. In fact, looking back at the Final Four matchup with WSU, those 3-pointers – especially the trio of treys from Luke Hancock – are the reason UL is still dancing.

Louisville’s late fouls vs. Michigan’s misses from the stripe

The Cardinals carry a reputation as a hard-nosed defense but that gets amplified in the final minutes of games. Louisville isn’t giving away anything easy down the stretch and will happily hand out a hard foul and send its opponent to the charity stripe with the game in the balance. It comes with the territory when you press like UL. They took 23 personal fouls versus Wichita State and Duke and average just over 18 per game on the season.

The Wolverines’ foul line woes nearly cost them a shot at the national title. Michigan, which normally hits 70 percent of its free throws, let late-game nerves get the best of it against Syracuse. The Wolverines missed four of their six freebies in the final 48 seconds, allowing the Orange to climb to within one point. Even Player of the Year Trey Burke – an 80 percent shooter from the stripe - couldn’t escape the foul line freeze, going 4 for 6 and missing a key foul shot in the final seconds.

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

04/08/13 Prediction

Season
Straight Up: 3905-1367 (.741)
ATS: 1902-1930 (.496)
ATS Vary Units: 5269-5595 (.485)
Over/Under: 637-600 (.515)
Over/Under Vary Units: 732-732 (.500)

NCAA Tournament
National Championship at Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
Louisville 71, Michigan 65

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PREDICTION MACHINE

Against the Spread Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times):

Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opponent Line Margin Win% ATS

601 9:23 PM MICHIGAN LOUISVILLE 4-0.756.6%

Straight-Up Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times):

Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opponent Points For Points Against Win%

602 9:23 PM Louisville Michigan 70.169.452.3%

Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times):

Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick%

602 9:23 PMMICHIGAN vs LOUISVILLE138.5139.5 Over51.2%

In the picks above, Margin, Points For, Points Against and Total Points are averages from 50,000 games played. The Win% ATS is the percentage of games in which the team picked covers the noted spread. Similarly, the Pick% in the Over/Under table is the percentage of time that the Over or Under pick covers the total. These values represent the Predictalator's confidence in the pick and are used in the Play Value Key and Calculator. With RL and O/U plays assumed to be -110, anything less than 52.38% confidence is not considered to be a worthwhile pick.

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Louisville meets Michigan in Monday's title game

NCAA Tournament - National Championship
Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Tip-off: Monday, 9:20 p.m. ET
Line: Louisville -4, Total: 138

The 2012-13 college basketball season concludes Monday night in Atlanta when the top-seeded team in the tournament, Louisville, takes on fourth-seeded Michigan in the National Championship game.

The Wolverines have come a long way after finishing the regular season 1-9 ATS (5-5 SU) and then losing to Wisconsin in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. In the NCAA Tournament, they have beaten their five opponents by an average score of 75 to 62, including three wins of 15+ points. With Saturday night's 61-56 win over Syracuse, the Wolverines are now 9-1 (SU and ATS) on a neutral court this season, outscoring these teams by 10.9 PPG. Louisville is also red-hot, but had a major scare on Saturday when it trailed by 12 points in the second half to Wichita State, a game it eventually won 72-68. The Cardinals have now won 15 straight games (11-4 ATS) by holding all 15 opponents to under 70 points, including limiting 10 of those opponents below 60 points. Louisville is also 19-1 SU (17-2-1 ATS) in their past 20 games in the month of March over the past two seasons, and 11-1 SU (8-4 ATS) on a neutral court this season, outscoring its opponents by 15.4 PPG.

Michigan might be only a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but there isn't much the team doesn't excel in. In addition to their 75.2 PPG (25th in nation), 48.3% FG (7th in D-I) and 38.3% threes (20th in nation), the Wolverines have the fewest amount of turnovers in the country (9.4 TOPG). They also lead the nation in Ast/TO ratio (1.55) and rebound pretty well too with a +3.2 RPG margin. They will need to do all these things well to beat a Louisville team that thrives on forcing bad shots and creating turnovers with its incredible defense. Michigan's defense is solid (62.8 PPG, 42.3% FG, 32.1% threes allowed) and is able to stay out of foul trouble (12.7 fouls per game, 2nd-fewest in D-I), by preferring not to take many chances in trying to force turnovers, as evidenced by a mere 2.8 BPG and 6.2 SPG, which rank 244th and 230th in the nation, respectively. The Wolverines' backcourt of sophomore PG Trey Burke (18.5 PPG) and junior SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG) has carried this team all season, but the duo shot a combined 5-of-24 from the floor (4-of-14 threes) against Syracuse. But Burke, who had five rebounds, three steals, four assists and just one turnover on Saturday, has a 3.13 Ast/TO ratio that ranks third in the country, and his 6.8 APG places 12th among the nation's leaders. Burke can also score in bunches, averaging 13.8 PPG in the NCAA Tournament with three games of 15+ points. Hardaway has shot a high percentage from behind the arc this season (38%), but is just 5-of-18 (28%) from long range and 11-for-40 (28%) on all FG attempts over the past three games. Michigan has become much more than a two-man team recently. Six-foot-10 freshman PF Mitch McGary (7.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) has been unbelievable in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 16.0 PPG on 70% FG with 11.6 RPG and 2.2 SPG. He also had a career-best six assists to go along with 10 points, 12 boards and two blocks in Saturday's win. Fellow freshman PF Glenn Robinson III (10.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG) played poorly in the Big Ten Tournament (6.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG), but he has certainly stepped up in the NCAA's with 12.8 PPG on a robust 64% FG with 6.2 RPG. He was one of three Michigan players to score in double-figures in the Final Four win with 10 points and six rebounds (five offensive). Another freshman, SF Nik Stauskas (11.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG) is the team's best three-point shooter at 44% for the season, but he was 0-for-5 FG (0-for-4 threes) on Saturday. This was quite surprising considering he drained 7-of-8 shots (6-of-6 threes) for 22 points against Florida in the Elite Eight. With Stauskas struggling on Saturday, two reserves played key roles for the Wolverines. Freshman Caris LeVert (2.4 PPG, 31% threes) scored eight points with 2-of-3 threes against Syracuse, while another freshman, SG Spike Albrecht (1.8 PPG, 50% threes), made the most of his four minutes by nailing both of his three-point attempts.

Louisville ranks fourth in the nation in scoring margin (+15.9 PPG) with 74.3 PPG of offense (32nd in nation) and 58.3 PPG allowed on defense (17th in D-I). The Cards outshoot opponents 45.6% FG to 39.2% FG (27th in nation), but they do not rely on the three-point shot like most Rick Pitino-coached teams do. Louisville makes just 5.7 threes per game (219th in D-I) on a subpar 32.9% clip (214th in nation). This team thrives on full-court pressure, using 10.8 steals per game (2nd in D-I) as part of 18.4 forced turnovers (also 2nd-most in nation) to get plenty of easy baskets. This defense has forced 16.4 TOPG in the NCAA's, which is a big reason why the team is scoring a hefty 79.0 PPG on 53.2% FG in the Big Dance. Nobody has been scoring quite like SG Russ Smith (18.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG), who is averaging 25.0 PPG on 50% FG in the NCAA Tournament. He's gotten a ton of points by driving to the hoop and drawing fouls, but after starting the tourney 32-for-40 (80%) from the line, he made just 5-of-12 free throws (42%) on Saturday. Smith has also tallied 15 steals in the five wins, to increase his season average to 2.1 SPG. Senior PG Peyton Siva (9.8 PPG, 5.7 APG, 2.2 SPG) was outstanding in the Elite Eight against Duke when he scored 16 points (6-of-10 FG) with four assists and zero turnovers in 33 minutes, but he was terrible on Saturday, making just 1-of-9 shots (0-for-5 threes) for seven points, three assists and two turnovers. Luckily for Siva, junior swingman Luke Hancock (7.7 PPG) was the best player on the court in Saturday's win. He scored 20 points on 6-of-9 FG (3-of-5 threes) while adding four rebounds and two steals. After averaging just 5.7 PPG in the first three games of the NCAA's, Hancock has 15.0 PPG on 8-of-12 FG over the past two contests. C Gorgui Dieng (9.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.5 BPG) was averaging 11.0 PPG on 20-of-24 FG (83%), 7.5 RPG and 2.5 BPG in the first four games of the NCAA Tournament, but did very little in 30 foul-plagued minutes with zero points (0-for-1 FG), six rebounds and two blocks in 30 minutes. His only problem has been foul shooting, where he's made just 2-of-10 FT in the past two games. Freshman PF Montrezl Harrell (5.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG) provided quite a spark off the bench on Saturday with eight points (4-of-4 FG) and four rebounds in 11 minutes. Little-used SG Tim Henderson (0.8 PPG in 3.8 MPG) also hit two key three pointers to ignite the game-ending 37-21 run. This team also rallied against Duke in the Elite Eight after sophomore SG Kevin Ware (4.5 PPG) suffered a horrific broken leg late in the first half, beating the Blue Devils 50-31 after halftime, and are using Ware's misfortune as further motivation to capture their first NCAA Championship since 1986. Michigan's lone NCAA title came in 1989.

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Bank Shots: NBA Betting News & Notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of March 31-April 6

Hottest ATS

New York Knicks (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

The New York Knicks are riding an 11-game win streak (10-1 ATS) into Oklahoma City on Sunday afternoon. Forward Carmelo Anthony has put up point totals of 50, 40 and 41 for 131 points on 64 percent shooting in the last three contests. In 10 games since returning from a knee injury, Melo has averaged 32.4 points per game.

Coldest ATS

Boston Celtics (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Celtics have failed to cover to in four straight and six of their last seven as they continue to plummet down the East standings. Boston is guaranteed a playoff spot, but if its slide continues it could be destined for a date with the Miami Heat in the first round. The Celtics host the Nets Sunday before Brooklyn rolls into Beantown.

Best Over Play

Phoenix Suns (0-2 SU, 2-0 Over/under)

Can it get any worse for the Suns? Phoenix has dropped eight straight and 12 of its last 13 games. The Suns have also played over the number in four straight and six of their last contests. Phoenix hosts New Orleans Sunday before embarking on a three-game road trip.

Best Under Play

Memphis Grizzlies (2-1 SU, 0-3 over/Under)

The Grizzlies’ team dynamic changed after they shipped to Rudy Gay to Toronto, prompting a peculiar amount of overs, but Memphis has returned to its stout defensive ways and has its under bettors cashing again. The Grizz have gone low in four consecutive games and 10 of their last 14 contests. Memphis visits Sacramento Sunday before hosting lowly Charlotte.

Scouting the schedule:

-The Milwaukee Bucks have clinched a playoff berth in the East, but moving up from the eighth seed will be awfully tough down the stretch. The Bucks play five of their last six contests away from home, which includes tough stops in Miami, Atlanta and Oklahoma City. Milwaukee is 15-20-1 O/U on the road.

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Pucking the Trends: This Week's Best NHL Bets

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of March 31-April 6.

Hot Team

San Jose Sharks (3-0 SU)

The Sharks extended their winning streak to seven games with a 2-1 victory over the Flames Friday night and have moved up to fifth in the Western Conference standings entering play Sunday. San Jose has rallied behind goaltender Antti Niemi who has yielded just 10 goals during the streak. The Sharks host the Stars Sunday before heading out on a four-game road trip.

Cold Team

Calgary Flames (0-4 SU)

The Flames traded away captain Jarome Iginla and stud defenseman Jay Bouwmeester at the trade deadline and could limp towards the finish line. Calgary has dropped five straight heading into Monday’s clash with Colorado.

Best Over Play

Philadelphia Flyers (3-1 SU, 3-1 Over/under)

The Flyers had scored five goals in three consecutive games but laid an egg in Winnipeg on Saturday, finding the back of the net just once. Philadelphia currently finds itself outside of the playoff picture in the East and will be pushing for a victory Tuesday in Long Island.

Best Under Play

Colorado Avalanche (0-4 SU, 0-4 over/Under)

The Avalanche are losers of four straight and eight of their last nine games. Colorado has averaged 1.55 goals per game over its last nine contests, helping boost its season O/U mark to 14-20-4. The Avs host the Flames Monday before heading to California for a tough back-to-back with the Kings and Ducks.

Surveying the schedule:

-The Buffalo Sabres play seven of their final 10 games at First Niagara Center. The Sabres have an 11-6 O/U mark at home.

-The Ottawa Senators continue their season-long seven-game road trip Sunday in Florida. The Senators lost the first two games of the trip to drop their road record to 6-9-3 SU. Ottawa will stop in Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, New Jersey and Boston to close out of the road trip.

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Rounding the Bases: The Best Bets in the Bigs

Every week we take a look at the hottest and coldest teams as well as the best over and under bets in major league baseball.

For the week of March 31-April 7.

Hot Team: Colorado Rockies
Last week: 5-1
Upcoming schedule: at San Francisco, at San Diego

Skinny: The Rockies are the early MLB leaders in runs per game (6.5), team batting average (.333), and home runs (13). Colorado’s pitching staff also boasts a combined 2.80 ERA through the first six games.

Cold Team: Milwaukee Brewers
Last week: 1-5
Upcoming schedule: at Chicago (Cubs), at Cardinals

Skinny: The Brewers have dropped five straight after knocking off the Rockies 5-4 on Opening Day. Milwaukee pitchers have surrendered 17 runs over the club’s last two losses.

Over Team: Oakland Athletics
Last week: 6-1 Over/under
Upcoming schedule: at Los Angeles (Angels), vs. Detroit

Skinny: A’s hitters have belted 12 homers during Opening Week and are averaging 5.43 runs per game.

Under Team: Chicago Cubs
Last week: 1-5 over/Under
Upcoming schedule: vs. Milwaukee, vs. San Francisco

Skinny: The Cubs are averaging 2.17 runs per game and have a .180 team batting average through the first six games.

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Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies - METS TO WIN (+108)
Listed Pitchers: Harvey vs Halladay
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.16 units)

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Bob Balfe

Astros/Mariners - Over 7 runs

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MLB Weather Watch: Chance of rain in Cleveland

Here’s a look at notable weather for Monday’s games around the majors.

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

Site: Wrigley Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s and mostly cloudy conditions. Winds are expected to blow out to center field at 15 mph.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

Site: Busch Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out to left field at 13 mph.

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

Site: AT&T Field

Forecasts are calling for cool temperatures in the high-40s and clear skies. Winds will blow out to McCovey’s Cove at 14 mph.

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians

Site: Progressive Field

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the low-60s and a 40 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out to center field at 15 mph.

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers

Site: Rangers Ballpark at Arlington

Strong winds are expected to blow in from right field at 20 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-70s under mostly cloudy conditions.

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DAVE ESSLER

Monday Cliff Notes - Monday - Baseball/CBB

Reds at Cardinals: Reds outlast Washington, but what would concern me here is that they had to use Marshall, Broxton, and Chapman on Sunday, while the Cardinals used very little bullpen, thanks to Wainright. We did give them out as a probably play in one of our write ups, and I pride myself on that type of thing, even though it doesn't show in the boxscore. Obviously Cardinals home opener and Reds first road game. Garcia's ERA at home last year was far better than on the road, but his hits/walks/WHIP et all really were not that much different than on the road. He has managed the Reds order fairly well, but at -110 they almost appear to be begging for people to take St. Louis, so I may find a way not to. Garcia shut down, on the road, a hot-hitting D-backs team and managed to keep the ball on the ground all night, too. What would concern me about the Reds, aside from the pen issue, is that Latos threw 100 pitches against the Angels. Given the success of the Cardinals against Latos, I do think the Cardinals are the right side. Will look at the total (hit 62%) this week, later.

Mets at Phillies: The Mets were very fortunate not to get blown out by the Fish, and were simply able to get out of jam after jam on Sunday. Then of course had timely hitting off of Cishek in the ninth. Phillies almost pull the second improbable in a row against the Royals, so one has to wonder if they aren't pretty confident right now. But, then there's Halladay. Apparently it's all about his release point and allowing more flyballs. Whatever the case may be, that could be in his head right now. He has, however, owned Wright, Duda, and Murphy so the Mets could be the cure here. One has to wonder whether Harvey's impressive outing was him, the opposition, or both, but he hasn't given up much to the few Phillies he's faced. All things being equal this may come down to bullpens, and I trust neither. This is a fairly cheap price on the potential of Halladay, really. I leaned under, but that's already come down off of 8, so probably a pass. Perhaps a lean back to the over, since it's supposed to be fairly mild with a slight helping breeze. Tough one right now.

Atlanta at Miami: The Fish did everything but win the game in New York, and Stanton just looks lost right now. It's not a matter of teams pitching around him, either, because he hasn't been up with runners on. Freddie Freeman went on the DL for the Braves, and that could pose a defensive problem, actually. Maholm looked pretty good last week against the Phillies, but that was the Phillies who until the weekend weren't hitting. Many of the Marlins have done enough damage to think that the cheap Miami RL might be worth a play, especially in a big park that may not see too many runs. Slowey looked pretty good against the Nationals, but it's still Kevin Slowey. Maybe with less expectations he'll settle down. Certainly might have a hard time trusting the Miami bullpen after they were all used today, and gave it up as it would be. I'd trust the Braves' better even if they hadn't been used, obviously. Since the Braves don't have much exposure to him, I could see Miami scoring some off of Maholm, and perhaps a first five inning bet on Miami.

Pittsburgh at Arizona: After the late game(s) against the Brewers and the complete meltdown(s) of the Arizona bullpens, I lean Pirates here as it's the D-Backs first game back, and a late night Sunday at that. Pittsburgh's value may never be better, since they only had four hits against Ryu and less against Kerhsaw, and they may well be in Arizona before the D-Backs are. Of course it's always tough to fade Arizona, at home, against a left-handed pitcher, but Wandy's done a good enough job in limited exposure for me not to rule out the Pirates here. Cahill clearly either stayed in Arizona or left early, so we're not worried about him being tired. We are worried about him at home, as we have been since he became a D-back. Perhaps he totally benefited from pitching several years in Oakland's big park. The totals' already come off of "9" in most places. This is only the second time most of the Pirate regulars have seen him, but that may not deter me. It's another one that at -150 (and dropping) they may be asking for Arizona money. And if the Pirates RL is that expensive (-165) then it's a small play on Pittsburgh or pass. I just won't lay big units on big chalk, which is what has worked for us for three seasons.

Baltimore at Boston: My first thought was what would this line have been a week ago when nobody expected anything from Boston. I'd expect people to jump all over them after what they did in Toronto on Sunday. In trying to make the opposite case, although Buchholz looked great at New York, it was a weak Yankee lineup and he did give up more flyball outs than not, which is also something I watch closely. He's owned Markakis, who's just not hitting right now, and Hardy has owned him, so up and down there is a case to be made that the Orioles might score. Yes, it's Boston's home opener, but Fenway is always full and it will bring out the best in Baltimore, too. Perhaps the Orioles were thinking about this game while they were losing to the Twins, and doing so only allowing four hits. Chen looked good at Tampa bay, but everyone has against the Rays so far. His pitch count was down, but Boston hasn't had any trouble hitting him in the two times they've met before. Given Boston's serious bullpen advantage, I would have to think they may be the right side. But, knowing these two teams like I do, nothing the Orioles do in Boston surprises me. That total sitting at nine is probably a result of what Boston did on Sunday and what they Orioles have done the first week. My inclination would be that Middlebrooks, although he hits Chen well, will not hit three more home runs and that the natural regression of things keeps this under the number, but I will wait and see if it goes to 9.5 first. Huge difference.

Yes, we've had another wonderful (I don't have a lengthy vocabulary of adjectives) season and we will have a play in this game on Monday. Doubtful we'll fire a 3* GOY or anything, but long term people will get our best bet. I can make a reasonable case for L'ville, as perhaps they had their scare, and Witchita State (who we had) was the perfect (or imperfect) matchup for them). Michigan had a week to prepare for Syracuse and their zone, and 48 hours to prepare for L'ville and theirs. I cannot think that Michigan will go 26 minutes without turning the ball over (sorry, JD) and I cannot think that L'ville will miss as many shots as they did Saturday. So, as much as I despise laying points, at the moment I think the Cardinals win. ML play, perhaps. I do think that this game's total is pretty right on, as of now. I don't expect Michigan to miss as many shots, either. Usually these big games start out slow and deliberate, but knowing the way both of these teams want to play, I would think the pace would be quicker sooner rather than later. Nothing to lose. So, I guess that would mean I lean over, which is also hard to fathom. If for no other reason than Joe Q will be betting the Cardinals and over from 5:00PM EST until tip off, and Joe Q doesn't usually go 2-0. Plenty of time.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Thunder (-8) Sunday.

Monday it’s Louisville. The deficit is 303 sirignanos.