4-8-13

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Harry Bondi

MLB

PHILADELPHIA (-120) over NY Mets
7 p.m. ET Freebie
It's hard to believe that Doc Halladay has fallen so far that he is just a 120 favorite over the Mets, a team he has absolutely owned over the years going 7-1 lifetime. New Yorkers were very fortunate to beat the Marlins on Sunday as they got out of a ton of jams and while the Phillies lost to Kansas City their bats have woken up and should have no problem getting to Matt Harvey. Halladay's release point has been off this spring but the Mets are just what the doctor ordered. Take the Phillies as a small favorite.

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Todays Best Bets

NCAAB "GAME OF THE YEAR"

(10 UNITS) Michigan +4

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ATS

3* OVER 138 - Michigan/Louisville, 9:20pmET

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Dan The Man NATIONAL TITLE GAME PREVIEW

Louisville Vs Michigan… Who Will Be National Champion?

Current Line- Louisville -4

Atlanta (97.1 The Ticket) -- This is what it is all about. The 100’s of practices, the endless shooting drills, all the blood, sweat, and tears of a process that starts for each of the 347 teams with a chance to cut down the nets. The day has come where there will be a champion crowned, fulfilling the dreams of young men that started when they were back on the playground or in their backyard, dreaming of winning it all.

It does not always happen, but the two best teams in the country are both one win away from a national championship. Louisville has been spectacular all season long and played their best basketball when it mattered most, during the heart of the Big East season. The Cards come in winners of 18 ot their last 19 games, and until the struggle against the Shockers, simply rocked their way through the tournament.

The Michigan Wolverines were dominant as well aside from the Sweet Sixteen game against the Jayhawks , in which Trey Burke helped lead a comeback for the ages. The bottom line is both teams playing for the title are about as talented as any team that has made it this far in recent memory. Both teams can make a case for having the best backcourt in the country, The Cards with Russ Smith and Peyton Siva who have experience and amazing leadership qualities. Michigan with who many feel is the drop dead best player in the country in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr whose energy and confidence can break an opponents will.

Each squad has a big man who can change the game and in Michigan’s case with Mitch McGary , can change a season. There are role players everywhere and they have come up big all tournament long and both coaches are two of the best the college game has to offer. Rick Pitino has taken Louisville to three Final Fours in the past eight years and won a title while at Kentucky in 1996. John Beilein may be coaching in his first National Title game, but has been successful everywhere he has coached during his over 37 year career.

This game is going to come down to which team is able to handle the best of what the other has to offer. For Louisville to win they will need to slow down the inside play on both ends of the floor from Mitch McGray, who has become the Wolverines emotional leader and the team seems to thrive off of it. They also will have to contain trey Burke, who never has two bad games in a row.

For Michigan they will have to slow down the amazingly fast and elusive guard tandem of Smith and Siva, who can run Louisville’s high tempo offense with amazing efficiency. They will also have to keep Dieng from dominated the post and bother the Michigan shooters when they drive the lane.

There of course is always an x-factor and for Louisville it was Luke Hancock in the Semi’s as he almost single handedly helped them comeback against an unbelievably gritty Shockers team. For Michigan it was the powerful minuets of freshman Spike Albrecht and Caris Levert, who I truly feel without their 12 early points , with one of the best shooters in the country Nik Stauskas struggling, Michigan would not have beaten Syracuse. Glenn Robinson III is an x-factor as his pure athleticism can shake an opponent’s confidence.

This is going to be a game run at a frantic pace. Michigan just had to contend with the Syracuse zone which until Michigan had simply shut teams down. Now they will have to deal with some of the best pressure defense played in the country. Louisville hasn’t seen a team this year , even in the tough Big East, that when on , can shoot as well as Michigan.

I think this game will be played back and forth all night with both teams having moments where they will feel they are pulling away, only to see the other squad get right back in it. Look for huge games out of Burke and Hardaway Jr for Michigan and Smith Siva for the Cards as I would not be surprised if the majority of the scoring for Louisville came from the backcourt.

Where I see the difference in this game is the truly balanced scoring of Michigan and simply stated, “The Monster”. Mitch McGary is the biggest reason why Michigan is in this position. Trey Burke is the best player on the team and the country, but McGary, since he was inserted into the starting lineup, has been the reason that the Wolverines have been able to be as dominant as they have been.

In the end Michigan will just be too much for Louisville. Burke will have a huge game and will look unstoppable at times like he has most of the season. McGary will be a presence in the post on both ends of the floor, and Nik Stauskas will get back to the hot shooting that has defined him at his best this year. Michigan will get this huge moments from players like Albrecht , Levert , and Morgan, who almost has become forgotten with the emergence of McGary, but has always been a very important member of the Wolverines.

Many say Michigan might just be a team of destiny, I say they have made their own destiny, by never giving up, even when things were at the darkest. They have bought into John Beilein’s most ardent principles, family and unity. They will walk off the court a unified family for life, as well as National Champions.

DAN LEACH PREDICTION - MICHIGAN 74 LOUISVILLE 69

MOST OUTSTANDING PLAYER OF FINAL FOUR - MITCH MCGARY

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JOE GAVAZZI

Tampa Bay (Hellickson) at Texas (Ogando) (-150) 8:00 ET
4* Texas (Ogando) -150
In this Texas game, I strongly favor the pitching matchup of Ogando vs. Hellickson. Hellickson got off to a rough start allowing 5 runs and 8 hits in 6 1/3 IP vs Baltimore. For Texas, Ogando was a quality starter for the Rangers in 2011. In 29 starts, Ogando posted a record of 13-8 with a 3.56 ERA. After pitching out of the bullpen in 2012, Ogando was rewarded with being placed in the starting rotation. He responded positively in his first outing when he allowed just 4 hits with 10 KOs in 6 1/3 IP with a 4-0 Houston win. Ogando still believes he has much to prove to stay in the rotation. Lets continue to ride him in what will be a successful 2nd start.

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Power Play Wins

POD

Louisville -4

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RightSideValuePlays

NCAA FINAL

Louisville -3.5

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Around the Rink: Monday's NHL Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Monday’s NHL action:

Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins (-220, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Dan Ellis (CAR), Tuukka Rask (BOS)

Boston has earned points in eight consecutive games at TD Garden (7-0-1) and has lost in regulation at home just once since Jan. 31. Carolina has gone from first place in the Southeast in mid-March to 13th overall in the Eastern Conference thanks to a 1-10-1 stretch. The Hurricanes' current losing streak reached four games with Saturday's 4-1 setback against the New York Rangers. Boston posted a 5-3 victory in the first meeting of the season on Jan. 28 after being swept of the four-game series in 2011-12. The under is 7-1 in the Hurricanes’ last eight road games.

New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs (-102, 5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Henrik Lundqvist (NYR), James Reimer (TOR)

The Rangers, who defeated Toronto 5-2 at New York on Jan. 26, have points in their last four games (3-0-1) and look dangerous after shuffling their roster at the trade deadline. Henrik Lundqvist stopped a season-high 48 shots for the Rangers on Saturday in a 4-1 road victory at Carolina. Lundqvist has held opponents to one goal in each of his last three starts, while New York recorded 11 goals in that span - four of them from players acquired in deadline deals. The Rangers are 5-0-2 in their last seven games at Air Canada Centre. Toronto has not defeated New York in regulation at home since Nov. 1, 2008.

Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche (-144, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Joey MacDonald (CGY), Semyon Varlamov (COL)

The Flames will attempt to halt their five-game losing streak on Monday when they visit the Avalanche, who are winless in four straight and have one victory in their last nine contests (1-7-1). Calgary is being outscored 25-10 on its five-game skid and its only win in the last seven games came against Colorado, which it defeated 4-3 at home on March 27. The under is 5-0-1 in the Avalanche’s last six overall.

Phoenix Coyotes at Vancouver Canucks (-154, 5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Mike Smith (PHX), Cory Schneider (VAN)

The Coyotes defeated the Canucks at Vancouver 4-2 on Feb. 26, but lost 2-1 at home when the Canucks visited on March 21. Vancouver has won its last five home games - raising its record at Rogers Arena to 12-5-3. Phoenix began April with three wins at home and has points in its last six games (4-0-2) despite health issues with its goaltending. Mike Smith missed six games with an upper-body injury but returned on Saturday to blank Colorado with 24 saves. The under is 8-1-2 in the Canucks’ last 11 overall.

Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks (-151, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Devan Dubnyk (EDM), Jonas Hiller (ANA)

Edmonton has lost two straight following a five-game winning streak, scoring a total of one goal while allowing eight. Anaheim and Edmonton are meeting for the first time this season. They will face off twice in Edmonton on April 21-22. The road team has won six of the last eight games in the all-time series, while the Ducks have captured six of the last seven. The under is 6-1-1 in the last eight clashes.

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Where the Action is: Bettors Loving Dog & Over in NCAA Final

The battle for the holy grail of NCAA basketball is just a few hours away and action is starting to heat up at sportsbooks.

We talk with Bert Osborne, sportsbook manager at South Point in Las Vegas, and Michael Stewart, oddsmaker for online sportsbook CarbonSports, about the betting action heading into Monday’s national title game.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Louisville Cardinals – Open: -3.5, 137, Move: -4, 139

The early money on this spread quickly moved the line from -3.5 to -4 but the action has since leveled out and oddsmakers are expecting Michigan money to flow in Monday afternoon.

“The straight-up money is currently quite even,” Osborne. “But we are expecting Michigan money all afternoon.”

Although Michigan is the popular play at South Point, Louisville money continues to pour in on parlay bets.

The expected flood of Wolverines’ cash has already hit the online sportsbooks hard. Around 65 percent of the SU (straight up) money is backing Michigan and 56 percent of bettors are on the Wolverines plus the points.

But the action on the moneyline and sides is child’s play compared to the attention the total is getting from bettors.

“They’re (bettors) hammering the over,” says Osborne. “We opened at 137.5 and have been forced to move the total up to 139. We are still seeing action on the over even after the adjustment.”

The over is also getting bombarded online. It's being backed at a 75 percent clip by bettors at CarbonSports.

Louisville has been a popular futures bet at many sportsbooks throughout the tourney, but Osborne isn’t too concerned about a Cardinals victory.

“We will have a very good day futures-wise if Michigan wins,” Osborne notes. “But we are in pretty good shape even if Louisville does prevail.”

CarbonSports.ag is offering Most Outstanding Player odds for the tournament and Louisville’s Russ Smith (-200) is leading the way with 32 percent of bettors backing the favorite.

When asked for his game prediction tonight Osborne simply replied, “Michigan on the moneyline is the play.”

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SB Professor NHL Picks

Here are the picks for NHL with their current Money Lines:

55. Calgary Flames +133
57. Edmonton Oilers +139
59. Phoenix Coyotes +142

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JdWarriors5/Sharky Sports

Championship Game

3* Louisville - ML

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Uncle Harry

Louisville -3.5 big!

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Sports-Junkie

BetThisPick

5-0 +25.50 L/5

5* MLB: Mets ML +104

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Mike Hook
Louisville

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Larry Ness 10*

Louisville