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Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN
Did we learn nothing from last week?
The New England Patriots, one of just five undefeated NFL teams, are once again priced at a pick’em for Week 5’s trip to Cincinnati.
The Patriots found themselves in pick range visiting the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football last week, and handled the Falcons with a 30-23 win. The Patriots closed as big as 3-point road underdogs in that game.
New England finally has a victory it can hang its hat on after an unimpressive first three weeks and could return receiving weapons WR Danny Amendola and TE Rob Gronkowski in time for Week 5. Both were questionable heading into last weekend and would be a major difference for a Pats offense that has struggled to find traction.
The Bengals, at 2-2, have wins over Pittsburgh and Green Bay, but also fell to the Cleveland Browns last weekend. Cincinnati failed to find the end zone in the loss to the Browns and QB Andy Dalton isn’t at the top of his game, with five TDs and four INTs on the year. The Bengals do get a break with New England star DT Vince Wilfork going down with a season-ending Achilles injury Sunday.
Some books are staying on the fence with this spread while others have moved the Bengals as many as two points to -2.
Grabbing the Pats as underdogs two weeks in a row is almost unheard of. The last that happened was in Weeks 16 and 17 of the 2006 season when New England was resting up for the playoffs. The Patriots won and covered in both those outings.
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 42.5)
Defense is headed the way of the Dodo bird in the NFL. Up-tempo offenses and no-huddle attacks are the pace of the league, leaving stop units to huff and puff in a struggle to keep up.
Teams known for locking down opponents are getting burned for big numbers, including the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers. Both squads ranked among the top defenses in the league last year, but haven’t been able to match that stoutness through the first four games of the 2013 schedule.
That's what makes this low 42.5-point total so puzzling. The Texans, who allowed only 21.4 points per game last year, are giving up 26.2 this season – 23rd in the league. The Niners are also suffering from a defensive downgrade, budging for 23.8 points per outing (19th) after limiting foes to just 19.1 last year.
Each team has proven it can put up points with the football. Houston scored a total of 61 points in its first two games and bullied the top defense in the NFL for 20 points in an OT loss to Seattle Sunday. San Francisco finally got untracked offensively in Thursday’s win over St. Louis, exploding for 35 points.
That 42.5-point over/under is on par with other Week 5 totals involving teams like the Rams and Jaguars, Bills and Browns, and Panthers and Cardinals. -
NFL teams off a bye week covering at 54 percent
By JASON LOGAN
Football bettors get their first chance to factor the bye week into their handicapping Sunday, with the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers coming off a week away from the gridiron.
The Packers are near-touchdown favorites at home to the Detroit Lions while the Panthers are set as 1-point road chalk in Arizona Sunday. Looking at the recent track record of NFL teams off the bye, you may want to get some cash down quick on these two well-rested clubs.
Since 2001, teams coming off the bye week are 201-172-3 SU and 201-166-9 ATS in the regular season – an ATS winning percentage of 54 percent. Last year, teams coming off the bye week went 15-15-2 SU and 18-14 ATS.
There has also been a slight lean toward the Under when teams are playing off a bye week. Perhaps having the extra week to prepare and study film are the reasons post-bye teams are 176-196-4 over/under since 2001. Teams of a bye week went 13-19 over/under last season.
As for teams on the bye in Week 5, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Washington all have time off this Sunday.Comment
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Chargers-Raiders time change could be boom for books
By JASON LOGAN
If you’re betting the San Diego-Oakland game this Sunday, you may want to put on a pot of coffee or two. Or maybe just take a personal day Monday.
Due to complications with the MLB playoff schedule, which has the Oakland A’s playing hosts at O.co Coliseum Saturday, the Bolts-Raiders Sunday matchup has been bumped from a 4:25 p.m. ET start to a late night 11:35 p.m. ET start – 8:35 p.m. PT. The process of switching O.co Coliseum from a baseball to a football venue takes roughly 24 hours.
The extra late game could mean big profits for sportsbooks. Having one more game on the board following a full day of NFL football and the Sunday Night Football contest could funnel all that action into the San Diego-Oakland handle.
This AFC West rivalry wasn’t the most tantalizing game on the Week 5 board and its original start time was up against the Denver-Dallas game as well as other late afternoon matchups. According to Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com, the shift to a standalone, nationally televised game (NFL Network) will draw in a much bigger betting audience.
“Anytime you get a standalone NFL game, volume increases dramatically,” Childs tells Covers. “Now that the game is being played late, with no competition for eyeballs and viewership, I believe our betting volume could potentially increase by 40 percent.”
In Las Vegas, sportsbooks are excited that there is one more game on the board following the Sunday nighter but don’t expect the same increase in handle as the online markets.
According to Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, the San Diego-Oakland game will detract some action from the Sunday nighter between Houston and San Francisco, and pretty much balance out what they would normally take for the late Sunday game.
“That late on a Sunday night we won’t have that many guests waiting around for the 5:30 p.m. game to end to play the 8:30 p.m. game,” says Sherman. “It will make the decision on the game larger for us considering all the day’s prior parlays will be left going to it, rather than having it mixed in as part of the afternoon.”
As for the odds for Sunday’s “midnight special”, Oakland opened as a 5-point home underdog but has since been moved to +4.5. The total is the biggest concern with oddsmakers due to the time change.
Childs says that since this game is now a single nationally televised contest, he’s added another half point to the total – 44 to 44.5 – to protect from the public trend of betting the Over in these night games. The book is also offering far more props and alternative wagers than it normally would if the game started at its original time.
“Instead of being available for just West Coast viewers or bettors with the NFL package, it’s going to see way more betting action,” he adds.Comment
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NFLBettingPicks / Kevin
First off congrats on a big 7-0 week. Lets keep that going into Week 5.
2 UNIT = 6-Point Teaser - EAGLES +8.5 and FALCONS -2.5 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)
4 UNIT = Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals - PANTHERS -1 (-118)
(Note: I'm risking 4.00 units to win 3.39 units)
2 UNIT = Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns - BILLS +4 (-103)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.94 units)
2 UNIT = Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals - UNDER 42 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
2 UNIT = Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants - OVER 53.5 POINTS (+100)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
2 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers - OVER 52 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
2 UNIT = Denver Broncos @ Dallas Cowboys - OVER 55 POINTS (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)Comment
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NFL Betting Three Teams Improve to 4-0 O/U Records
Despite a high total in the Denver Broncos versus Philadelphia Eagles game, the scoreline soared past the 57.5 number as the teams combined for 72 points.
The 52-20 Broncos victory moves the club to a 4-0 Over/Under record along with a pair of other teams who saw their totals go over the number Sunday.
The Chicago Bears also moved to 4-0 O/U after their 42-30 loss to the Detroit Lions.
Joining them at that clip is the Minnesota Vikings who combined for 61 points in Minny's 34-27 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in London, England.
The Green Bay Packers, sit at 3-0 O/U.Comment
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NFL Line Watch: Don't Play on Packers until Sunday
by Art Aronson
Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Spread to Bet Now
Jacksonville Jaguars (+13.5) at St. Louis Rams
If you think that Jacksonville can keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door vs. the Rams, then you should consider jumping on this line as soon as possible. It opened at -14 but is already dropping fast. There are still some 13.5s out there, but there are also a couple of 13s and even some 11s on the board.
Things don't get any easier for either team as St. Louis is on the road for two straight in Houston and Carolina, while Jacksonville will be in Denver next weekend, likely as the biggest underdog of the last 10 years.
The Jags have put 20 points on the board in two straight losses, while the Rams have mustered just 18 in two straight setbacks.
Jacksonville fought tough versus Seahawks on road for a half and it appears that both the public and the sharps feel that the Jaguars still have some fight left in them. Note that Jacksonville is 0-4 for the third time in franchise history and that the team has never started 0-5.
Spread to Wait on
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers(-7)
If you think the Packers can handle business versus their division rival at home then you should consider waiting until closer to game time before getting involved with this contest.
The line opened at 7.5, but quickly dropped. Green Bay is now a 7-point favorite, but there are even a few 6.5s creeping onto the board.
Divisional contests are always the most important games of the season and doubly so for the home side. The Packers are coming off their bye, having lost to the Bengals the week before.
The fact that Green Bay has surrendered 88 points over its first three games and that the Lions won 40-32 over the Bears last week is likely a big reason why both the sharps and the public continue to hammer the visitors in this one.
Total to Watch
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (55)
If you’re a fan of the Over consider waiting a bit closer to kickoff before hammering this one. This line opened at 55 but a few 54.5s have hit the board. It's obvious that neither the public nor the sharps believe these teams can muster much of an offensive attack.
Hard to blame them though as the G-Men have posted a miserable seven total points in back-to-back losses (they put up 54 over their first two setbacks), while the Eagles have managed just 36 (after posting 63 in their first two games). Despite having one win between them after the first four weeks, amazingly, the NFC East is still up for grabs.Comment
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Football Jesus Free Football : Bengals
14-5-1 so far on free football picksComment
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**ALERT** BURNS' *10* AFC BEST OF THE BEST! (VERY EARLY!)
NEW ENGLAND VS. CINCINNATI
October 6, 2013 - 1:00 PM
Pick: Pinnacle @ -1 -114 Cincinnati
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 6 - 1:00 PM
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I really like how this one sets up for the Bengals. The Patriots are riding high, with a 4-0 record. Many are already pencilling them in for a date in the AFC Finals with the Broncos. While that may indeed happen, lets keep in mind that we've only played four games.
Prior to last week's win at Atlanta, the Patriots had beaten the Bills and Jets and Bucs. Two of those teams had a rookie QB, who had little or no NFL experience at the time and the third team had a QB who was struggling so much that he's no longer their QB. While beating Matt Ryan and the Falcons is obviously more of an accomplishment, the Pats did give up a ton of yards through the air. Give them credit for bending rather than breaking and playing good defense in the red zone - but they were also somewhat fortunate to only allow 23 points.
Now, off a big win on primetime and playing their second straight road game, the Pats have take on a very tough Cincinnati team - one which believes that its a Super Bowl contender and which is angry off a loss. Knowing what's at stake, I'm quite confident that the Bengals will be "up" for this one. On the other hand, I believe the Pats may be ripe for a letdown.
It should be remembered that the Pats lost nose tackle Vince Wilfork in the win over the Falcons. He's not just a regular player. He's a dominant force and a leader. His loss figures to be significant.
Belichick said this of Wilfork: "...he's an outstanding player, we all know that. He gives us great leadership and he's a strong contributor on and off the field and in the locker room and everything else ..."
The Pats were 0-1 ATS last year, when off a road win and playing another road game. The Bengals already bounced back from their first loss with a win. They haven't lost two straight regular season games since doing so in late Oct and early Nov. last year.
While the Bengals are only 2-2 overall, they could easily be 3-0. They're also 2-0 at home. They beat the Steelers by double-digits, a team they almost never beat here. They also beat the Packers here, no small feat. They're 5-1 SU/ATS their last six here, since last season, the lone loss coming by a single point. That includes wins over the Ravens and the Giants. (Note that the Ravens, Giants and Packers won the last three SB's - and that the Bengals have beaten all three of those teams in their last six here.)
Dalton is taking quite a lot of heat at the moment. I expect him to be better here though.
The bottom line is that while I respect them, I'm still not completely sold on the Pats. At some point, I expect some of the personnel losses to cost them a game and this week looks like a prime spot for that to happen. I believe the Bengals are better than many believe and that they're going to be extremely hungry. I expect them to scratch, to claw and to find a way. 10*Comment
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Today's NFL Picks
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 6
Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (10/2)Game 413-414: Kansas City at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 134.440; Tennessee 129.302
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 5; 34
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); UnderGame 415-416: Baltimore at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 133.136; Miami 138.252
Dunkel Line: Miami by 5; 39
Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 43 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); UnderGame 417-418: Jacksonville at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 115.243; St. Louis 124.746
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 11 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11 1/2); OverGame 419-420: New England at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.949; Cincinnati 140.852
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 49
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1); OverGame 421-422: Seattle at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 141.063; Indianapolis 131.826
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 9; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-2 1/2); UnderGame 423-424: Detroit at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 129.625; Green Bay 141.654
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 12; 57
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7); OverGame 425-426: New Orleans at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.703; Chicago 135.290
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Pick; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans; UnderGame 427-428: Philadelphia at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.236; NY Giants 126.619
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2 1/2); OverGame 429-430: Carolina at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.490; Arizona 131.499
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Carolina by 2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+2); UnderGame 431-432: San Diego at Oakland (11:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.189; Oakland 126.352
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 7; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego by 4; 45
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-4); UnderGame 433-434: Denver at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 143.106; Dallas 138.718
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Denver by 8; 56
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+8); OverGame 435-436: Houston at San Francisco (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 131.061; San Francisco 140.064
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 9; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6 1/2); OverComment
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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5
By JASON LOGAN
Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 5:
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)
Ravens’ pass rush vs. Dolphins’ poor protection
The Ravens offense is sputtering but the defense remains the backbone of the franchise. Outside of the 49 points given up to Denver in Week 1, Baltimore has allowed an average of 12.6 points and 170.3 passing yards over the past three weeks. A big part of that has been the pass rush, which has a total of 13 sacks on the year, led by veteran LB Terrell Suggs with four QB kills.
Miami’s run game has been stuck in mud, so the Fins find themselves leaning on second-year QB Ryan Tannehill to move the chains. With that knowledge, opposing defenses have unleashed hell on the Dolphins offensive line, which has allowed an NFL-worst 18 sacks. Tannehill has two fumbles on the year and 15 fumbles – losing seven – in his first 20 career starts.
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 56)
Broncos’ big-play passing vs. Cowboys’ sucky secondary
The Cowboys’ new Tampa-2 defense has been good between the chains but has been burned over and over again with the deep ball. Dallas is giving up 7.2 yards per pass play and 10.9 yards per completion. It gave up a 26-yard TD toss and a 56-yard TD strike against San Diego last week and nearly let a Week 1 win slip away due to the Giants’ deep threats.
Denver’s offense is airing it out on opponents, averaging an NFL-best 363.8 passing yards and 44.8 points per game. Quarterback Peyton Manning has been killing defenses with 9.42 yards per attempt and, while he’s done most of his damage with short, quick throws, Manning will find plenty of opportunities to exploit a weak Cowboys secondary Sunday.
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 41.5)
Texans’ red-zone weakness vs. 49ers’ rejuvenated offense
Houston’s defense ranks tops in the league in yards against, giving up just 254.2 yards per game, fueled by a pass defense that also tops the NFL with 141 yards allowed. However, the biggest chink in the Texans’ armor is its red-zone defense, which has buckled for touchdowns on 88.8 percent of its foes’ trips inside the 20-yard line.
San Francisco’s offense took a little while to get going but found its stride versus St. Louis last Thursday. The Niners scored touchdowns on all three trips to the red zone in their win over the Rams, improving to a 63.64 percent TD rate inside the 20-yard line on the season. The return of TE Vernon Davis helped, catching a 12-yard pitch from Colin Kaepernick, and Frank Gore finding his stride gives San Fran plenty of options in the red zone.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+4, 45)
Chargers’ TE Antonio Gates vs. Raiders’ terrible TE defense
There’s plenty of tread left on the tires of Chargers TE Antonio Gates. After being slowed by injuries the past few years, Gates is back to his old tricks this year. He reeled in 10 catches for 136 yards and a massive 56-yard score versus Dallas last Sunday and TD catches in his last two games. The Bolts’ big man has rolled the Raiders in the past, totaling 1,098 yards and 11 TDs on 80 career catches.
Oakland’s defense has been beat up by tight ends already this season, with Jaguars TE Clay Harbor and Broncos TE Julius Thomas each finding the end zone against the Raiders. The Silver and Black are assigning backup safety Brandian Ross to Gates with starter Tyvon Branch out of action. Ross is 6-foot-1 but will dwindle in jump-balls with the 6-foot-4, 260-pound Gates.Comment
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Capping the calendar: October's best/worst NFL bets
Although the rosters change with each season, NFL teams have a tendency of repeating themselves – especially when it comes to the pointspread wars.
With the leaves starting to fall, let’s take a look at some of the good and bad pro football team trends that have occurred in the month of October in the NFL since 1990.
HOME TEAMS
• Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh will definitely be tested to keep this long stretch of excellent play going (28-15 ATS) with this year’s squad. They will be home just once and that will be a bitter battle with Baltimore.
Even when Kansas City has been dreadful, it still managed to play well at Arrowhead with a 27-18 ATS mark. The Chiefs will have three chances to improve on this record with Oakland, Houston and Cleveland coming to town.
• Keep an eye on (Bad): After making the playoffs the past two years, and starting 2-0 SU and ATS at Paul Brown Stadium in 2013, Cincinnati will be after real improvement on a 14-27 ATS mark this month again New England and the Jets.
AWAY TEAMS
• Good: Atlanta has been regarded as a great bet at home team for a number of years now, but actually the Falcons are 27-13 ATS as visitors in October. They will have one chance to prove themselves in Arizona the last Sunday of the month.
• Keep an eye on (Good): The last time the New York Giants looked this bad was the latter two-thirds of the 2009 season. Nevertheless, the G-Men have been money on the road and they will seek to improve upon 26-14 ATS record. They will undoubtedly be catching points at Chicago and at Philadelphia.
New England is a crisp 25-16 ATS in road affairs and tough test in Cincinnati and a return match in New Jersey with the Jets, where they are 12-2 ATS.
• Bad: Arizona is a historically odious road team no matter the time of year, but this month, the Cardinals are an insufferable 12-24 ATS. The lone trip to San Francisco does not figure to be pleasant for the Cards.
• Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we find two teams with a lousy past in October. One figures to improve and the other, not so much. Seattle (16-31 ATS) will be in the road uniforms three times, twice against division foes Arizona and St. Louis.
Thanks to a bye week, Tampa Bay (14-26 ATS) only has to travel to Atlanta for a road excursion this month of year.
FAVORITES
• Keep an eye on (Good): Given how St. Louis has played this season, it be difficult for the Rams to improve on 19-11 ATS record this month. Looking at the schedule, they will only have one chance when they are home against Jacksonville on Oct. 6.
• Bad: Because of a Halloween encounter, Cincinnati will play five games in October. The Bengals have been inconsistent and might not be favored as often as was once presumed. They will likely be a small favorite versus Buffalo and a larger favorite at home against the Jets. This is probably more than enough, as Cincy is 8-18 ATS supplying others with points.
• Keep an eye on (Bad): Tampa Bay is in the midst of another miserable campaign, which is exactly how the Bucs play in the role of favorites with a 15-25 ATS mark. We will see what oddsmakers think of the Bucs at home against Philadelphia and Carolina and wager accordingly.
UNDERDOGS
• Good: Given how Pittsburgh and the New York Giants have played thus far, their past history acknowledges they are almost nicely suited to be underdogs. The Steelers are 20-7 ATS and the Giants are 20-9 ATS, unfortunately in most cases it was with far better teams than what we have seen in 2013.
• Keep an eye on (Good): For years, Carolina has relished the underdog role in the second month of the season with a 25-14 spread record. Depending on circumstances, the Panthers might not have many opportunities, with trips to Minnesota and Tampa Bay the only possibilities.
• Keep an eye on (Bad): The Vikings are 12-22 ATS on the receiving end of points and could be in this role at the N.Y. Giants and home versus Green Bay the second half of the month.
DIVISION
• Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta may be off is a disappointing start, yet is 20-11 ATS in division conflicts and has the Buccaneers at home on Oct. 20.
The New York football Giants are 23-12 ATS and will have two chances to turn their season around with a home and home against the Eagles.Comment
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NFLBettingPicks / Kevin
First off congrats on a big 7-0 week. Lets keep that going into Week 5.
2 UNIT = 6-Point Teaser - EAGLES +8.5 and FALCONS -2.5 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)
4 UNIT = Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals - PANTHERS -1 (-118)
(Note: I'm risking 4.00 units to win 3.39 units)
2 UNIT = Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns - BILLS +4 (-103)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.94 units)
2 UNIT = Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals - UNDER 42 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
2 UNIT = Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants - OVER 53.5 POINTS (+100)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
2 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers - OVER 52 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
2 UNIT = Denver Broncos @ Dallas Cowboys - OVER 55 POINTS (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)
Write ups
Two more plays added for Week 5 including a four unit play, and this is most likely all for our card this week.
2 UNIT = 6-Point Teaser - EAGLES +8.5 and FALCONS -2.5 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)
Sometimes I recommend betting each team on the spread if you can't bet teasers, but in this case I would just lay off. I would lean Eagles and Falcons to cover, but I would much rather capture key numbers 3 and 7 in a teaser like we've done. *Note that this teaser might not be available anymore as the Falcons have moved to -9 at most books.
The first leg of this teaser has the Eagles +8.5 capturing both 3 and 7 as they were 2.5 point underdogs in New York. Although the Eagles are just 1-3 they could find themselves in first place in the NFC East with a win and Dallas loss to Denver. The Eagles have lost to San Diego, Kansas City and Denver, after opening the season with a win in Washington. Philadelphia's losses have come to some good teams, and I think they are better than their record. On the other hand the Giants are 0-4 with losses to Dallas, Denver, Carolina and Kansas City. Those losses have also come to some good teams, but they haven't really been in any of their four games (other than coming from behind against Dallas to make it interesting). Their latest two losses have been 38-0 in Carolina and 31-7 in Kansas City. Philadelphia has the league's 2nd ranked offense averaging 458 yards per game, while the Giants are just 23rd with 325 ypg. The Giants have the edge defensively giving up 384 yards against per game (21st) compared to the Eagles who are 32nd giving up 446 yapg - but New York has given up a league worst 36.5 points against per game. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New York, and the underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings overall. I like the Eagles getting more than a touchdown.
The second leg of this teaser has the Falcons -2.5 at home vs the Jets on Monday night. Surprisingly the Jets have opened the season 2-2 with a last second win against Tampa Bay and a 7 point victory over Buffalo at home. Their two losses have come on the road as they lost to New England and Tennessee last week. The Falcons have had a rough 1-3 start to the year with a losses in New Orleans, Miami and at home against New England last Sunday Night - with their lone win coming against St Louis. Atlanta's offense ranks 7th in the NFL averaging 398 ypg and 23.5 ppg (14th), while the Jets rank 12th offensively with 366 yards per game but have scored just 17 ppg (28th). The Jets have a big advantage on defense as they currently rank 2nd in the NFL, although I'm not too sold as they've faced some average offenses in Tampa Bay, Buffalo at home, Tennessee, and New England when Brady was struggling with his new receivers. Rookie Geno Smith will be playing in what will be a loud domed stadium on Monday Night in Atlanta, and after last week's 4 turnover performance I don't see him and the Jets keeping pace with the Falcons offense - especially now without one of their key targets, Santonio Holmes, sidelined with an injury. I like the Falcons to cover the FG and complete the second leg of this teaser.
4 UNIT = Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals - PANTHERS -1 (-118)
(Note: I'm risking 4.00 units to win 3.39 units)
2 UNIT = Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals - UNDER 42 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
My first 4 Unit play in a couple weeks comes on the Carolina Panthers -1 as they are fresh off a bye week and heading to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. Carolina is just 1-2 on the season so far, but looking at their games they should still feel good about where they are at. In Week 1 they played maybe the best NFC team right now in the Seattle Seahawks and lost 12-7. They followed that up with a last second one-point loss in Buffalo against a pretty good Bills team, and then last week they thumped the New York Giants 38-0 at home. That game should have really built confidence in both the offense and defense. Take note that the Panthers defense is currently ranked 10th in the NFL giving up just 318 yapg, while they've held opponents to just 12 ppg (3rd). Offensively they rank 26th overall in yards gained, but they've managed 22.7 ppg (18th). Carolina ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing, which will be important this week against a pretty good Cardinals secondary. The Cardinals are 2-2 on the year with losses @St Louis and @New Orleans and victories at home vs Detroit and @Tampa Bay last week. Offensively the Cardinals haven't been very good this year ranking 27th in ypg, and scoring just 17.2 ppg (25th). QB Carson Palmer has been one of the worst starting QBs in the league completing 57.2% of his passes for 1010 yards but with 4 TDs, 6 INTs and a low 69.8 QB Rating. Panther's QB Cam Newton has completed 59.1% of his passes for 577 yards (one less game played) but has a much better 6 TD and 2 INT ratio with a 91.9 QB Rating - and he's added 98 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Arizona's defense is how they will win games and they are ranking 19th right now in yapg and are giving up 22.2 papg (19th). Note that the Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a game where they allowed less than 15 points against. Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. I've made some money betting on the Cardinals this year, but I think Carolina is a better team coming into this game off a bye week after a blowout win with lots of confidence. I'll take the Panthers -1 for 4 units, and I will also add 2 units on the UNDER as I don't see Arizona doing much offensively against a good Panthers defense.
2 UNIT = Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns - BILLS +4 (-103)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.94 units)
Tonight's game features the 2-2 Bills in Cleveland to face the 2-2 Browns. Buffalo has started the year off with wins at home vs Carolina and Baltimore, and losses to the Jets and New England. Their latest game played was a 23-20 victory over Baltimore on Sunday as 3.5 point underdogs where they picked off Joe Flacco 5 times. The Browns started 0-2 with losses vs Miami and @Baltimore, but they've rebounded with a win @Minnesota and vs Cincinnati at home last week 17-6. Cleveland has gone with QB Brian Hoyer the past two weeks and he has been fairly effective completing 59.8% of his passes for 590 yards with 5 TDs, 3 INTs and a 83.2 QB Rating. Bills QB EJ Manual has very similar numbers with a 56.9% completion rate for 856 yards, with 5 TDs, 3 INTs and a 80.2 QB Rating. Cleveland has a clear advantage on defense, as they've been solid so far this year ranking 3rd int he NFL giving up 291 yapg and just 17.5 papg (8th) - but with that said their offense hasn't done much. The Browns are averaging just 323 yards per game and 16 ppg (29th). They put up 31 against a Vikings defense that ranks 29th in the league, but other than that they've scored just 10, 6 and 17 points. Bufalo's defense has been average at best, but offensively they are averaging 6 ppg more than the Browns (22 ppg). Points should be hard to come by in this game, and with that I'll take the Bills getting 4 points.
2 UNIT = Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants - OVER 53.5 POINTS (+100)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
-- See the teaser write up for some stats on each team's offense/defense. The Eagles are giving up 34.5 papg so far this season and the Giants are giving up 36.5 papg (worst two averages in the league). With that we've also got an Eagles offense that can put up points quickly, and Eli Manning who usually doesn't have problems with weaker defenses. The OVER is 6-1 in the Eagles last 7 overall and 4-1 in their last 5 road games. This game should see a lot of points, take the OVER.
2 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers - OVER 52 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
Here we have Aaron Rodgers coming off a bye week vs a below average Lions defense that is giving up 25.2 papg. Rodgers is currently completing 66.4% of his passes for 1057 yards over three games with 8 TDs, 3 INTs and a 105.1 QB Rating. The Packers are scoring 32 ppg (2nd behind Denver) and averaging 454 yards per game (3rd). On the other side we have the Lions who have been close to as good offensively averaging 404 ypg (6th) and 30.5 ppg (4th). They will be going up against a Packers defense who has been poor to start the year ranking 28th giving up 404 yapg, and 29.3 papg (27th). Although we saw totals of 47 and 44 from these two teams last year, they did play to 86 points the year prior - and I think this time around we get something in between. Reggie Bush has really given this Lions team the ability to put up a lot of points every game he's healthy, and we know that Aaron Rodgers has the ability to put up a lot of scores (especially at home coming off a bye). Take the OVER.
2 UNIT = Denver Broncos @ Dallas Cowboys - OVER 55 POINTS (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.96 units)
I'm coming right back on a Bronco's OVER this week as last week the Broncos and Eagles soared OVER the total that closed at 57.5 with a Denver 52-20 victory. Right now Peyton Manning has the best targets he's ever had in his career, along with a solid running game - and it's showing. Through 4 games the Broncos are averaging 483 yards per game and 44.8 points per game (both 1st in the NFL). Their defense, on the other hand, hasn't been anything special giving up 20+ points in each of their games and ranking 24th in the NFL. The Cowboys are 19th in the NFL offensively in yards gained per game, but they've converted drives into points ranking 10th with 26 ppg. QB Tony Romo has been great this year with a 72.4% completion rate with 1017 yards, 8 TDs, just 1 INT, and a 105.1 QB Rating - and he has played his best football at home. In two home games the Cowboys have put up 36 and 31 points. Although a 55 point total looks high for the NFL, when you have Manning and the Broncos averaging 44.8 points per game it looks like great value. A 35-28 type game puts this over a touchdown over the total, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the total in the 60s. Take the OVER.
Cheers,
KevinComment
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Colin Cowherd's Blazing Five
Patriots +1 (wiseguys disagree)
Panthers -2 (wiseguys disagree)
Eagles +2.5 (wiseguys agree)
Texans +6.5 (wiseguys agree)
Packers -7 (wiseguys slight agreement)Comment
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purelock top play DENVER-7Comment
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